2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 14

US PRESSWIRE

After a 3-week break, the Power Ranking Consensus is back!

We know the Chargers aren't very good. That's been made evident each week they step on the field. Whatever success they had to start the season quickly vanished following the epic collapse against the Broncos, a collapse from which the team has never been able to recover.

When we last visited these rankings (way back in Week 11), the Chargers were in the midst of a slide down the rankings. They continued to slide the last 3 weeks. What's evident here is that things haven't changed much in the last 3 weeks. I'm still unconvinced about the Colts, Texans are still the top team, etcetera etcetera etcetera. That's not to say there aren't some surprises or interesting trends.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 13.5972
NFC North 14.0972
NFC West 14.4028
NFC South 15.2083
AFC East 16.8750
NFC East 17.0139
AFC South 18.5278
AFC West 22.2778

The AFC West is terrible and it's not even close. What amuses me, though, is how the NFC East is hyped up as a powerhouse division, but they're the worst NFC division at this point.

Stock Rising

Team Week 11 Average Week 14 Average Difference
WAS 21.472 13.438 8.034
CIN 18.330 11.225 7.105
CLE 28.307 24.063 4.244
NE 6.881 2.663 4.218
BUF 26.188 22.063 4.125

All five teams are east of the Mississippi, and both Ohio teams are on this list.

Stock Falling

Team Week 11 Average Week 14 Average Difference
MIN 14.938 19.775 -4.837
CHI 4.233 8.850 -4.617
PHI 24.540 28.638 -4.098
DET 16.767 20.163 -3.396
ARI 22.267 25.488 -3.221

All NFC teams.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Average Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 No Change
Falcons 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 2.500 -0.409 Falling
Patriots 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2.700 4.936 Rising
Broncos 5 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3.900 2.282 Rising
49ers 4 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5.100 -0.373 Falling
Packers 7 6 7 6 5 6 8 7 6 7 6.500 -1.500 Falling
Ravens 6 7 5 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6.600 -0.236 Falling
Bears 8 10 8 8 11 11 10 9 8 9 9.200 -5.109 Falling
Giants 10 12 11 10 13 8 6 8 9 8 9.500 1.318 Rising
Seahawks 12 8 12 12 7 10 9 13 10 12 10.500 0.773 Rising
Colts 9 13 10 11 9 12 11 11 12 10 10.800 0.564 Rising
Steelers 13 11 13 9 12 9 12 10 11 11 11.100 -3.100 Falling
Bengals 11 9 9 13 10 13 13 12 14 13 11.700 6.209 Rising
Redskins 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 14 14.000 8.818 Rising
Buccaneers 15 15 15 15 17 16 14 15 15 15 15.200 -1.927 Falling
Cowboys 16 16 16 16 18 15 16 16 17 16 16.200 0.073 Rising
Saints 18 18 18 18 16 17 17 18 18 17 17.500 -2.864 Falling
Vikings 17 19 19 17 19 18 18 17 16 18 17.800 -3.800 Falling
Rams 19 17 17 19 15 19 19 24 20 19 18.800 3.655 Rising
Dolphins 20 21 25 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 20.500 -1.136 Falling
Bills 23 23 21 21 21 22 22 19 22 21 21.500 4.500 Rising
Lions 21 22 24 22 24 21 23 22 21 22 22.200 -4.291 Falling
Jets 22 25 20 23 25 23 21 23 24 23 22.900 3.918 Rising
Browns 24 20 26 24 22 25 24 25 25 25 24.000 5.364 Rising
Chargers 25 24 23 25 28 24 25 26 23 24 24.700 -4.518 Falling
Titans 26 27 22 26 23 26 27 21 27 26 25.100 -1.645 Falling
Cardinals 27 26 27 28 27 28 26 28 26 28 27.100 -5.191 Falling
Panthers 28 31 28 27 26 27 29 27 28 27 27.800 0.382 Rising
Eagles 30 30 29 29 29 29 28 32 29 29 29.400 -5.945 Falling
Chiefs 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 30 30.300 1.155 Rising
Jaguars 32 28 31 31 31 32 31 30 31 32 30.900 0.646 Rising
Raiders 29 32 32 32 32 31 32 29 30 31 31.000 -2.545 Falling

Observations:

  • The "Change in Value" column is referencing Week 11, not Week 13 because I never entered the rankings for Weeks 12 or 13. #Baby
  • You'll notice no Sports Illustrated this week. Don Banks hadn't posted his power rankings at the time I published this post.
  • It's clear who the pundits feel belong in the top 12. Well, actually it's the top 13, but the top 13 teams in this list have an average ranking of less than 12.
  • Chargers keep falling.
  • Whoah, Raiders are now the consensus worst team in the league, supplanting the Chiefs.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 No Change
Redskins 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 14 0.447 -1.920 Falling
Falcons 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 0.500 0.212 Rising
49ers 4 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 0.539 -1.117 Falling
Patriots 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 0.640 -0.428 Falling
Saints 18 18 18 18 16 17 17 18 18 17 0.671 -0.627 Falling
Broncos 5 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0.700 -1.100 Falling
Cowboys 16 16 16 16 18 15 16 16 17 16 0.748 -1.066 Falling
Buccaneers 15 15 15 15 17 16 14 15 15 15 0.748 -0.465 Falling
Chiefs 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 30 0.781 0.283 Rising
Ravens 6 7 5 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 0.800 -0.632 Falling
Packers 7 6 7 6 5 6 8 7 6 7 0.806 -0.322 Falling
Cardinals 27 26 27 28 27 28 26 28 26 28 0.831 -0.165 Falling
Vikings 17 19 19 17 19 18 18 17 16 18 0.980 -0.065 Falling
Eagles 30 30 29 29 29 29 28 32 29 29 1.020 -0.951 Falling
Lions 21 22 24 22 24 21 23 22 21 22 1.077 0.081 Rising
Bills 23 23 21 21 21 22 22 19 22 21 1.118 -0.296 Falling
Jaguars 32 28 31 31 31 32 31 30 31 32 1.136 0.638 Rising
Bears 8 10 8 8 11 11 10 9 8 9 1.166 -0.277 Falling
Raiders 29 32 32 32 32 31 32 29 30 31 1.183 0.195 Rising
Colts 9 13 10 11 9 12 11 11 12 10 1.249 0.270 Rising
Panthers 28 31 28 27 26 27 29 27 28 27 1.327 -0.314 Falling
Steelers 13 11 13 9 12 9 12 10 11 11 1.375 -0.532 Falling
Chargers 25 24 23 25 28 24 25 26 23 24 1.418 -1.468 Falling
Jets 22 25 20 23 25 23 21 23 24 23 1.513 0.484 Rising
Dolphins 20 21 25 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 1.565 -0.258 Falling
Browns 24 20 26 24 22 25 24 25 25 25 1.673 0.447 Rising
Bengals 11 9 9 13 10 13 13 12 14 13 1.735 0.059 Rising
Seahawks 12 8 12 12 7 10 9 13 10 12 1.911 1.049 Rising
Giants 10 12 11 10 13 8 6 8 9 8 2.013 0.747 Rising
Titans 26 27 22 26 23 26 27 21 27 26 2.119 0.195 Rising
Rams 19 17 17 19 15 19 19 24 20 19 2.227 -0.004 Falling

Observations:

  • Texans still the unanimous number-1 team.
  • Oh wow, look at the Redskins' consensus. Almost right in the middle and everyone is in agreement with that.
  • The Saints, Cowboys and Buccaneers are also pretty consistently-ranked in the middle.
  • Overall, teams are more consistently ranked this week. Look at how many green arrows there are compared to red arrows.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Average Change since last period
Patriots 1 8 1 1 3 1 1 5 2.625 3.500 Rising
Texans 8 3 2 2 1 2 4 1 2.875 -0.750 Falling
Broncos 2 1 3 4 5 9 3 2 3.625 0.250 Rising
49ers 4 2 5 3 9 3 2 3 3.875 0.500 Rising
Falcons 14 7 4 7 4 7 7 4 6.750 0.375 Rising
Giants 7 6 12 6 8 5 6 11 7.625 3.500 Rising
Seahawks 3 5 9 9 10 10 8 7 7.625 0.000 No Change
Bears 6 14 13 5 11 4 5 10 8.500 -4.125 Falling
Packers 5 11 6 8 13 13 9 6 8.875 -3.750 Falling
Ravens 10 20 7 10 2 6 10 9 9.250 -0.625 Falling
Bengals 9 10 11 12 7 12 13 12 10.750 8.000 Rising
Steelers 13 16 10 14 6 11 14 8 11.500 0.125 Rising
Redskins 11 9 14 13 16 15 12 13 12.875 7.250 Rising
Buccaneers 12 15 17 11 20 8 11 14 13.500 -2.250 Falling
Rams 20 13 15 16 15 26 18 16 17.375 2.250 Rising
Saints 16 22 18 17 19 16 16 15 17.375 -0.250 Falling
Lions 15 12 24 19 25 14 19 17 18.125 -2.500 Falling
Cowboys 19 18 22 15 18 19 15 21 18.375 -5.625 Falling
Dolphins 21 17 19 21 23 18 23 20 20.250 0.125 Rising
Panthers 18 4 28 24 32 17 22 19 20.500 -1.875 Falling
Vikings 23 26 23 18 21 21 17 25 21.750 -5.875 Falling
Jets 26 19 16 22 12 30 24 26 21.875 2.375 Rising
Colts 27 25 8 23 14 25 27 27 22.000 -0.375 Falling
Bills 17 23 20 25 17 29 26 24 22.625 3.750 Rising
Chargers 22 21 26 20 28 22 20 23 22.750 -1.250 Falling
Cardinals 25 30 27 26 24 20 21 18 23.875 -1.250 Falling
Browns 24 24 21 27 27 23 25 22 24.125 3.125 Rising
Titans 29 28 25 28 22 27 29 28 27.000 -2.125 Falling
Eagles 28 27 32 29 26 24 28 29 27.875 -2.250 Falling
Jaguars 30 32 29 31 30 28 31 30 30.125 1.000 Rising
Raiders 32 29 30 30 29 32 32 31 30.625 -1.625 Falling
Chiefs 31 31 31 32 31 31 30 32 31.125 0.375 Rising

Observations:

  • Patriots now ahead of Texans, but it's very close. AFC Championship game, anyone? Broncos aren't far behind either. Booooo.
  • For as weak as the AFC is overall, I'm okay with seeing the top 3 teams here being AFC teams, even though all of the next six are NFC teams.
  • I'm not the only one still unconvinced about the Colts. In fact, they actually dropped in Objective Rankings since 3 weeks ago.
  • Huh ... Seattle's objective ranking is exactly the same as it was 3 weeks ago. Yay for consistency.
  • Chiefs are still the worst team in the league using the objective rankings, but the Raiders are closing in.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chiefs 31 31 31 32 31 31 30 32 0.600 0.100 Rising
Jaguars 30 32 29 31 30 28 31 30 1.166 0.239 Rising
Raiders 32 29 30 30 29 32 32 31 1.218 -0.440 Falling
Bengals 9 10 11 12 7 12 13 12 1.854 -1.298 Falling
Browns 24 24 21 27 27 23 25 22 2.027 0.635 Rising
Dolphins 21 17 19 21 23 18 23 20 2.046 -0.349 Falling
Redskins 11 9 14 13 16 15 12 13 2.088 -1.131 Falling
Saints 16 22 18 17 19 16 16 15 2.118 -2.689 Falling
49ers 4 2 5 3 9 3 2 3 2.147 0.151 Rising
Texans 8 3 2 2 1 2 4 1 2.147 0.182 Rising
Eagles 28 27 32 29 26 24 28 29 2.204 -1.399 Falling
Titans 29 28 25 28 22 27 29 28 2.236 -3.496 Falling
Seahawks 3 5 9 9 10 10 8 7 2.342 -0.655 Falling
Broncos 2 1 3 4 5 9 3 2 2.342 -1.065 Falling
Cowboys 19 18 22 15 18 19 15 21 2.342 0.120 Rising
Giants 7 6 12 6 8 5 6 11 2.395 -0.318 Falling
Patriots 1 8 1 1 3 1 1 5 2.446 -1.839 Falling
Chargers 22 21 26 20 28 22 20 23 2.681 -0.925 Falling
Vikings 23 26 23 18 21 21 17 25 2.948 0.100 Rising
Packers 5 11 6 8 13 13 9 6 2.977 1.286 Rising
Falcons 14 7 4 7 4 7 7 4 3.072 0.868 Rising
Steelers 13 16 10 14 6 11 14 8 3.162 0.820 Rising
Buccaneers 12 15 17 11 20 8 11 14 3.571 1.293 Rising
Bears 6 14 13 5 11 4 5 10 3.708 1.532 Rising
Cardinals 25 30 27 26 24 20 21 18 3.723 0.485 Rising
Rams 20 13 15 16 15 26 18 16 3.806 -0.580 Falling
Bills 17 23 20 25 17 29 26 24 4.029 0.715 Rising
Lions 15 12 24 19 25 14 19 17 4.314 1.359 Rising
Ravens 10 20 7 10 2 6 10 9 4.815 1.143 Rising
Jets 26 19 16 22 12 30 24 26 5.533 3.148 Rising
Colts 27 25 8 23 14 25 27 27 6.652 -0.148 Falling
Panthers 18 4 28 24 32 17 22 19 7.874 2.444 Rising

Observations:

  • The bottom-3 teams as far as overall average are also the most consistently-ranked teams. The Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars are consistently bad ... still.
  • Chargers are about in the middle as far as ranking consistency.
  • The Panthers' are at the bottom of this list thanks to Team Efficiency. They like something the Panthers are doing, but they're the only ones.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Texans 1.000 2.875 1.938 -0.375 Falling
Patriots 2.700 2.625 2.663 4.218 Rising
Broncos 3.900 3.625 3.763 1.265 Rising
49ers 5.100 3.875 4.488 0.063 Rising
Falcons 2.500 6.750 4.625 -0.017 Falling
Packers 6.500 8.875 7.688 -2.625 Falling
Ravens 6.600 9.250 7.925 -0.431 Falling
Giants 9.500 7.625 8.563 2.409 Rising
Bears 9.200 8.500 8.850 -4.617 Falling
Seahawks 10.500 7.625 9.063 0.386 Rising
Bengals 11.700 10.750 11.225 7.105 Rising
Steelers 11.100 11.500 11.300 -1.487 Falling
Redskins 14.000 12.875 13.438 8.034 Rising
Buccaneers 15.200 13.500 14.350 -2.089 Falling
Colts 10.800 22.000 16.400 0.094 Rising
Cowboys 16.200 18.375 17.288 -2.777 Falling
Saints 17.500 17.375 17.438 -1.557 Falling
Rams 18.800 17.375 18.088 2.952 Rising
Vikings 17.800 21.750 19.775 -4.837 Falling
Lions 22.200 18.125 20.163 -3.396 Falling
Dolphins 20.500 20.250 20.375 -0.506 Falling
Bills 21.500 22.625 22.063 4.125 Rising
Jets 22.900 21.875 22.388 3.146 Rising
Chargers 24.700 22.750 23.725 -2.884 Falling
Browns 24.000 24.125 24.063 4.244 Rising
Panthers 27.800 20.500 24.150 -0.747 Falling
Cardinals 27.100 23.875 25.488 -3.221 Falling
Titans 25.100 27.000 26.050 -1.885 Falling
Eagles 29.400 27.875 28.638 -4.098 Falling
Jaguars 30.900 30.125 30.513 0.822 Rising
Chiefs 30.300 31.125 30.713 0.764 Rising
Raiders 31.000 30.625 30.813 -2.086 Falling

Observations:

  • Overall, the top-10 has an even 6-6 split between the AFC and NFC, and it's also relatively evenly distributed.
  • Chargers are a bottom-third team. Let's play for draft picks now!
  • After a promising run in the middle weeks, the Dolphins are faltering again. The inverse is true of the Bills
  • The overall rankings are bookended by 3 AFC teams.
  • Oh cool, now the Raiders are the overall worst team in the NFL. I'll take it.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chiefs 30.300 31.125 0.817 0.318 Rising
Jaguars 30.900 30.125 1.212 0.471 Rising
Raiders 31.000 30.625 1.213 -0.127 Falling
Saints 17.500 17.375 1.499 -1.996 Falling
Redskins 14.000 12.875 1.537 -1.525 Falling
49ers 5.100 3.875 1.606 -0.210 Falling
Broncos 3.900 3.625 1.652 -1.187 Falling
Patriots 2.700 2.625 1.700 -1.291 Falling
Texans 1.000 2.875 1.708 0.317 Rising
Dolphins 20.500 20.250 1.799 -0.343 Falling
Eagles 29.400 27.875 1.820 -1.157 Falling
Browns 24.000 24.125 1.840 0.174 Rising
Bengals 11.700 10.750 1.850 -0.596 Falling
Cowboys 16.200 18.375 1.979 -0.668 Falling
Chargers 24.700 22.750 2.291 -0.983 Falling
Steelers 11.100 11.500 2.352 -0.408 Falling
Titans 25.100 27.000 2.368 -1.690 Falling
Giants 9.500 7.625 2.381 0.369 Rising
Packers 6.500 8.875 2.386 0.991 Rising
Seahawks 10.500 7.625 2.551 -0.180 Falling
Buccaneers 15.200 13.500 2.587 0.579 Rising
Bears 9.200 8.500 2.643 0.849 Rising
Bills 21.500 22.625 2.867 0.455 Rising
Vikings 17.800 21.750 2.872 0.658 Rising
Falcons 2.500 6.750 2.965 0.089 Rising
Cardinals 27.100 23.875 3.019 0.758 Rising
Rams 18.800 17.375 3.114 -0.482 Falling
Ravens 6.600 9.250 3.521 0.673 Rising
Lions 22.200 18.125 3.608 1.258 Rising
Jets 22.900 21.875 3.891 1.743 Rising
Panthers 27.800 20.500 6.457 0.437 Rising
Colts 10.800 22.000 7.177 0.418 Rising

Observations:

  • This table actually looks fairly familiar. It's pretty close to the "Objective Standard Deviation" table.
  • Unlike that table though, looks like more red arrows than green arrows this week. You'd think by now teams would be figured out and we'd be able to get their standard deviation way down.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Colts 10.800 22.000 11.200 0.939 Rising
Falcons 2.500 6.750 4.250 -0.784 Rising
Vikings 17.800 21.750 3.950 2.075 Rising
Ravens 6.600 9.250 2.650 0.389 Rising
Packers 6.500 8.875 2.375 2.250 Rising
Cowboys 16.200 18.375 2.175 5.698 Rising
Titans 25.100 27.000 1.900 0.479 Rising
Texans 1.000 2.875 1.875 0.750 Rising
Bills 21.500 22.625 1.125 0.750 Rising
Chiefs 30.300 31.125 0.825 0.779 Rising
Steelers 11.100 11.500 0.400 -3.225 Rising
Browns 24.000 24.125 0.125 2.239 Rising
Patriots 2.700 2.625 -0.075 1.436 Rising
Saints 17.500 17.375 -0.125 -2.614 Rising
Dolphins 20.500 20.250 -0.250 -1.261 Rising
Broncos 3.900 3.625 -0.275 2.032 Rising
Raiders 31.000 30.625 -0.375 -0.921 Rising
Bears 9.200 8.500 -0.700 -0.984 Rising
Jaguars 30.900 30.125 -0.775 -0.354 Rising
Bengals 11.700 10.750 -0.950 -1.791 Rising
Jets 22.900 21.875 -1.025 1.543 Rising
Redskins 14.000 12.875 -1.125 1.568 Rising
49ers 5.100 3.875 -1.225 -0.873 Rising
Rams 18.800 17.375 -1.425 1.405 Rising
Eagles 29.400 27.875 -1.525 -3.696 Rising
Buccaneers 15.200 13.500 -1.700 0.323 Rising
Giants 9.500 7.625 -1.875 -2.182 Rising
Chargers 24.700 22.750 -1.950 -3.268 Rising
Seahawks 10.500 7.625 -2.875 0.773 Rising
Cardinals 27.100 23.875 -3.225 -3.941 Rising
Lions 22.200 18.125 -4.075 -1.791 Rising
Panthers 27.800 20.500 -7.300 2.257 Rising

Observations:

  • Colts, still grossly over-ranked. And that disparity grew again in the last three weeks. Guess a last-second touchdown inflates people's perception of you.
  • Falcons are still over-rated as well, though it's gotten a little better, it's still there.
  • Oh hey look, the Chargers are under-ranked finally! Too bad it's a difference of 24.7 versus 22.75.
  • Interesting how the AFC teams are generally the ones over-ranked and the AFC teams are the ones under-ranked.

Sources

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