2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 15

Justin K. Aller

The Chargers pulled something off they never have before: they won in Pittsburgh in the regular season. Were the Power Rankings kind to the Chargers this week due to that accomplishment?

I tend to underestimate how many new readers we pick up each week in this column, and in the last few weeks I've heard from some readers that they don't quite follow what the various charts and stats mean. For those of you new here, you can get an explanation of what all these tables mean.

The general consensus among pundits league-wide is while the Chargers win in Pittsburgh was indeed impressive, the question of "where has this team been all along?" is very prevelent, as is the consensus that Norv is still gone at the end of the year. This isn't exactly earth-shattering news, we've echoed those same exact sentiments here at BFTB, but that's what people are saying about the Chargers.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC West 13.8816
NFC North 14.1974
NFC East 14.8026
AFC North 14.9474
NFC South 16.2105
AFC East 17.1053
AFC South 19.1447
AFC West 21.7105

Stock Rising

Team Week 14 Average Week 15 Average Difference
NYG 8.563 5.881 2.682
CAR 24.150 21.477 2.673
DAL 17.288 14.631 2.657
SEA 9.063 6.472 2.591
CLE 24.063 21.784 2.279

Wow, look at how relatively little teams have moved this week. For instance, in Week 11 the Saints, Bengals and Titans all jumped 4 or more spots compared to Week 10.

Stock Falling

Team Week 14 Average Week 15 Average Difference
CIN 11.225 14.051 -2.826
ARI 25.488 28.290 -2.802
ATL 4.625 7.278 -2.653
BAL 7.925 10.398 -2.473
PIT 11.300 13.773 -2.473

Wow, look at how relatively little teams have moved this week. For instance, in Week 11 the Dolphins and Giants had fallen 4 or more spots compared to Week 10.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Average Change since last period
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 1.700 Rising
Broncos 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2.455 1.445 Rising
Texans 3 4 2 2 5 3 2 2 2 3 4 2.909 -1.909 Falling
49ers 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 4.000 1.100 Rising
Falcons 5 5 4 5 6 4 7 6 4 6 5 5.182 -2.682 Falling
Packers 6 6 6 6 4 6 6 7 6 5 7 5.909 0.591 Rising
Giants 7 7 7 7 7 8 5 5 7 7 6 6.636 2.864 Rising
Ravens 8 9 8 10 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 8.546 -1.946 Falling
Seahawks 10 8 10 8 9 7 9 8 11 9 8 8.818 1.682 Rising
Colts 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 9.727 1.073 Rising
Redskins 12 11 15 12 11 10 11 11 10 12 11 11.455 2.545 Rising
Bears 11 12 11 11 12 15 13 12 15 11 12 12.273 -3.073 Falling
Steelers 15 16 14 13 13 14 12 14 12 13 13 13.546 -2.446 Falling
Cowboys 13 13 12 15 15 12 14 13 13 16 14 13.636 2.564 Rising
Bengals 14 15 13 14 16 13 15 15 16 15 16 14.727 -3.027 Falling
Vikings 16 14 17 16 14 16 16 16 14 14 15 15.273 2.527 Rising
Rams 17 17 18 18 17 17 17 18 19 18 17 17.546 1.254 Rising
Buccaneers 18 18 16 17 18 19 18 17 18 17 18 17.636 -2.436 Falling
Saints 22 19 22 19 19 18 19 20 20 19 19 19.636 -2.136 Falling
Jets 19 24 19 21 22 24 24 19 17 24 20 21.182 1.718 Rising
Browns 20 20 21 20 20 21 25 21 27 23 22 21.818 2.182 Rising
Chargers 23 21 20 22 23 25 21 22 23 21 21 22.000 2.700 Rising
Dolphins 21 22 26 24 21 22 20 23 22 20 23 22.182 -1.682 Falling
Panthers 26 25 27 23 25 20 22 27 24 25 25 24.455 3.345 Rising
Lions 25 23 25 26 24 28 23 25 26 22 24 24.636 -2.436 Falling
Bills 24 27 23 25 26 23 26 24 21 26 26 24.636 -3.136 Falling
Eagles 27 26 28 28 27 26 27 26 28 28 27 27.091 2.309 Rising
Titans 28 28 24 27 28 27 28 28 25 27 28 27.091 -1.991 Falling
Cardinals 29 29 29 32 29 29 30 29 30 29 29 29.455 -2.355 Falling
Raiders 30 32 32 31 31 31 29 32 29 30 30 30.636 0.364 Rising
Chiefs 32 31 30 29 30 30 32 30 32 32 31 30.818 -0.518 Falling
Jaguars 31 30 31 30 32 32 31 31 31 31 32 31.091 -0.191 Falling

Observations:

  • Last week, Houston was the unanimous number-1 team. The Patriots embarrassed them this week, so naturally New Englands get sto assume the throne.
  • Who has been the bigger disappointment this year: Chargers or Eagles?
  • Hey, remember when the Cardinals beat the Patriots in week 2, in Foxboro? That was fun.
  • Chargers rose in the rankings more than the Steelers fell.
  • The Colts keep rising, much to my chagrin. Apparently people tend to forget the Colts had this season's second-easiest schedule (according to Football Outsiders).

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.640 Falling
Broncos 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 0.498 -0.202 Falling
Colts 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 0.617 -0.632 Falling
Rams 17 17 18 18 17 17 17 18 19 18 17 0.656 -1.571 Falling
Ravens 8 9 8 10 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 0.656 -0.144 Falling
Jaguars 31 30 31 30 32 32 31 31 31 31 32 0.668 -0.468 Falling
49ers 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 4 5 4 3 0.739 0.200 Rising
Buccaneers 18 18 16 17 18 19 18 17 18 17 18 0.771 0.023 Rising
Eagles 27 26 28 28 27 26 27 26 28 28 27 0.793 -0.227 Falling
Packers 6 6 6 6 4 6 6 7 6 5 7 0.793 -0.013 Falling
Giants 7 7 7 7 7 8 5 5 7 7 6 0.881 -1.132 Falling
Cardinals 29 29 29 32 29 29 30 29 30 29 29 0.891 0.060 Rising
Falcons 5 5 4 5 6 4 7 6 4 6 5 0.936 0.436 Rising
Texans 3 4 2 2 5 3 2 2 2 3 4 0.996 0.996 Rising
Chiefs 32 31 30 29 30 30 32 30 32 32 31 1.029 0.248 Rising
Bengals 14 15 13 14 16 13 15 15 16 15 16 1.052 -0.683 Falling
Vikings 16 14 17 16 14 16 16 16 14 14 15 1.052 0.072 Rising
Raiders 30 32 32 31 31 31 29 32 29 30 30 1.068 -0.115 Falling
Seahawks 10 8 10 8 9 7 9 8 11 9 8 1.113 -0.798 Falling
Steelers 15 16 14 13 13 14 12 14 12 13 13 1.157 -0.218 Falling
Cowboys 13 13 12 15 15 12 14 13 13 16 14 1.226 0.478 Rising
Saints 22 19 22 19 19 18 19 20 20 19 19 1.226 0.555 Rising
Redskins 12 11 15 12 11 10 11 11 10 12 11 1.305 0.858 Rising
Titans 28 28 24 27 28 27 28 28 25 27 28 1.311 -0.808 Falling
Chargers 23 21 20 22 23 25 21 22 23 21 21 1.348 -0.070 Falling
Bears 11 12 11 11 12 15 13 12 15 11 12 1.420 0.254 Rising
Lions 25 23 25 26 24 28 23 25 26 22 24 1.611 0.534 Rising
Dolphins 21 22 26 24 21 22 20 23 22 20 23 1.696 0.131 Rising
Bills 24 27 23 25 26 23 26 24 21 26 26 1.720 0.602 Rising
Panthers 26 25 27 23 25 20 22 27 24 25 25 2.017 0.690 Rising
Browns 20 20 21 20 20 21 25 21 27 23 22 2.208 0.535 Rising
Jets 19 24 19 21 22 24 24 19 17 24 20 2.443 0.930 Rising

Observations:

  • Yes, it's unanimous that the Patriots are number 1
  • Neat, pretty good consensus on the Rams being kind of average.
  • Also pretty good consensus in the Buccaneers being bottom-half.
  • Giants and Packers duking it out for positioning.
  • Chiefs no longer unanimously the worst team in the league.
  • What do Mark Sanchez and the Jets' power rankings have in common? They're both very inconsistent.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Average Change since last period
49ers 4 2 4 2 2 3 2 2 2.625 1.250 Rising
Patriots 1 6 1 1 6 1 1 5 2.750 -0.125 Falling
Broncos 3 1 2 3 8 8 5 1 3.875 -0.250 Falling
Seahawks 2 4 6 6 3 6 3 3 4.125 3.500 Rising
Texans 8 5 3 4 5 2 7 4 4.750 -1.875 Falling
Giants 5 7 7 5 1 4 4 8 5.125 2.500 Rising
Packers 7 10 5 8 4 14 8 6 7.750 1.125 Rising
Bears 6 14 15 7 11 5 6 10 9.250 -0.750 Falling
Falcons 14 8 11 9 7 10 9 7 9.375 -2.625 Falling
Redskins 11 9 9 12 14 15 11 13 11.750 1.125 Rising
Ravens 10 21 12 10 17 9 10 9 12.250 -3.000 Falling
Bengals 9 11 16 13 21 11 14 12 13.375 -2.625 Falling
Steelers 13 15 18 17 9 13 16 11 14.000 -2.500 Falling
Buccaneers 15 17 23 11 16 7 12 14 14.375 -0.875 Falling
Cowboys 18 16 13 14 15 19 13 17 15.625 2.750 Rising
Rams 19 13 10 16 12 23 17 16 15.750 1.625 Rising
Lions 12 12 26 19 24 12 18 21 18.000 0.125 Rising
Panthers 16 3 24 21 32 16 21 15 18.500 2.000 Rising
Saints 21 20 21 18 19 17 20 22 19.750 -2.375 Falling
Vikings 24 26 17 15 18 21 15 24 20.000 1.750 Rising
Jets 25 19 14 23 10 26 24 26 20.875 1.000 Rising
Dolphins 23 18 19 22 25 20 22 18 20.875 -0.625 Falling
Browns 20 23 20 24 27 18 23 19 21.750 2.375 Rising
Colts 26 25 8 25 13 25 26 27 21.875 0.125 Rising
Chargers 22 24 25 20 28 22 19 20 22.500 0.250 Rising
Bills 17 22 22 26 20 30 25 23 23.125 -0.500 Falling
Cardinals 28 31 29 27 23 27 27 25 27.125 -3.250 Falling
Eagles 27 28 28 28 26 24 28 29 27.250 0.625 Rising
Titans 29 27 27 29 22 28 29 28 27.375 -0.375 Falling
Raiders 30 29 32 30 29 31 31 30 30.250 0.375 Rising
Jaguars 31 32 30 31 30 29 30 31 30.500 -0.375 Falling
Chiefs 32 30 31 32 31 32 32 32 31.500 -0.375 Falling

Observations:

  • I've seen calls for me to drop certain Objective sources because some people feel they throw a wrench into the rankings and really skew the results. But there's a reason I use more ranking systems: they all have different criteria. If there's not an agreement on a team's ranking, then it means they aren't doing things consistently well one way or another. If there is agreement, then they are a more consistent team. Also, you could point to each one of the objective rankings where they're the outlier in at least one instance. I can't get rid of all the objective sources.
  • Kind of funny how the 49ers are the top-ranked team in Objective Rankings, even though not one site ranked them in first place.
  • Interesting: the Titans, Jaguars and Chiefs all dropped 0.375 spots this week, while the Raiders rose the same amount.
  • On the subjective side of things, the Colts rose over 1 full spot. On the objective side of things, they only rose 1/8th of one spot (0.125).
  • Chargers only rose 0.250 this week despite a strong-looking showing against Pittsburgh.
  • Steelers on the other hand dropped 2.5 spots.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chiefs 32 30 31 32 31 32 32 32 0.707 0.107 Rising
49ers 4 2 4 2 2 3 2 2 0.857 -1.290 Falling
Jaguars 31 32 30 31 30 29 30 31 0.866 -0.300 Falling
Raiders 30 29 32 30 29 31 31 30 0.968 -0.250 Falling
Eagles 27 28 28 28 26 24 28 29 1.479 -0.725 Falling
Seahawks 2 4 6 6 3 6 3 3 1.536 -0.806 Falling
Saints 21 20 21 18 19 17 20 22 1.561 -0.557 Falling
Texans 8 5 3 4 5 2 7 4 1.854 -0.293 Falling
Redskins 11 9 9 12 14 15 11 13 2.046 -0.042 Falling
Giants 5 7 7 5 1 4 4 8 2.088 -0.307 Falling
Cowboys 18 16 13 14 15 19 13 17 2.118 -0.224 Falling
Titans 29 27 27 29 22 28 29 28 2.176 -0.060 Falling
Falcons 14 8 11 9 7 10 9 7 2.176 -0.896 Falling
Cardinals 28 31 29 27 23 27 27 25 2.260 -1.463 Falling
Patriots 1 6 1 1 6 1 1 5 2.278 -0.168 Falling
Dolphins 23 18 19 22 25 20 22 18 2.368 0.322 Rising
Broncos 3 1 2 3 8 8 5 1 2.666 0.324 Rising
Browns 20 23 20 24 27 18 23 19 2.817 0.790 Rising
Chargers 22 24 25 20 28 22 19 20 2.828 0.147 Rising
Steelers 13 15 18 17 9 13 16 11 2.872 -0.290 Falling
Packers 7 10 5 8 4 14 8 6 2.948 -0.029 Falling
Bengals 9 11 16 13 21 11 14 12 3.498 1.644 Rising
Bears 6 14 15 7 11 5 6 10 3.597 -0.111 Falling
Bills 17 22 22 26 20 30 25 23 3.689 -0.340 Falling
Rams 19 13 10 16 12 23 17 16 3.865 0.059 Rising
Vikings 24 26 17 15 18 21 15 24 4.062 1.114 Rising
Ravens 10 21 12 10 17 9 10 9 4.116 -0.699 Falling
Buccaneers 15 17 23 11 16 7 12 14 4.414 0.843 Rising
Lions 12 12 26 19 24 12 18 21 5.220 0.906 Rising
Jets 25 19 14 23 10 26 24 26 5.622 0.089 Rising
Colts 26 25 8 25 13 25 26 27 6.716 0.064 Rising
Panthers 16 3 24 21 32 16 21 15 7.826 -0.048 Falling

Observations:

  • At least the Chiefs are consistent about being bad.
  • Holy crap are the Panthers still all over the board. From 3rd to 32nd depending on the ranking site.
  • If you took the two outliers out of there, the Colts actually are one of the most-consistently-ranked teams at ~25th.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Patriots 1.000 2.750 1.875 0.788 Rising
Broncos 2.455 3.875 3.165 0.598 Rising
49ers 4.000 2.625 3.313 1.175 Rising
Texans 2.909 4.750 3.830 -1.892 Falling
Giants 6.636 5.125 5.881 2.682 Rising
Seahawks 8.818 4.125 6.472 2.591 Rising
Packers 5.909 7.750 6.830 0.858 Rising
Falcons 5.182 9.375 7.278 -2.653 Falling
Ravens 8.546 12.250 10.398 -2.473 Falling
Bears 12.273 9.250 10.761 -1.911 Falling
Redskins 11.455 11.750 11.602 1.836 Rising
Steelers 13.546 14.000 13.773 -2.473 Falling
Bengals 14.727 13.375 14.051 -2.826 Falling
Cowboys 13.636 15.625 14.631 2.657 Rising
Colts 9.727 21.875 15.801 0.599 Rising
Buccaneers 17.636 14.375 16.006 -1.656 Falling
Rams 17.546 15.750 16.648 1.440 Rising
Vikings 15.273 20.000 17.636 2.139 Rising
Saints 19.636 19.750 19.693 -2.255 Falling
Jets 21.182 20.875 21.028 1.360 Rising
Lions 24.636 18.000 21.318 -1.155 Falling
Panthers 24.455 18.500 21.477 2.673 Rising
Dolphins 22.182 20.875 21.528 -1.153 Falling
Browns 21.818 21.750 21.784 2.279 Rising
Chargers 22.000 22.500 22.250 1.475 Rising
Bills 24.636 23.125 23.881 -1.818 Falling
Eagles 27.091 27.250 27.170 1.468 Rising
Titans 27.091 27.375 27.233 -1.183 Falling
Cardinals 29.455 27.125 28.290 -2.802 Falling
Raiders 30.636 30.250 30.443 0.370 Rising
Jaguars 31.091 30.500 30.795 -0.282 Falling
Chiefs 30.818 31.500 31.159 -0.446 Falling

Observations:

  • 17 teams rose in positioning this week. 15 teams dropped in ranking.
  • 7 NFC teams in the top-12, 5 AFC teams. Are the Steelers a top-12 team? Well, technically they're ranked outside the top-12, but they're the 12th-highest-ranked team on the board.
  • If we're getting technical, there are only 11 teams ranked 12th or better. 7 NFC teams and 4 AFC teams.
  • Wow, could the Lions and Panthers be any more analogous this week?
  • 8 of the bottom 10 teams are in the AFC.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 31.091 30.500 0.812 -0.400 Falling
Chiefs 30.818 31.500 0.968 0.151 Rising
49ers 4.000 2.625 1.042 -0.564 Falling
Raiders 30.636 30.250 1.045 -0.168 Falling
Eagles 27.091 27.250 1.136 -0.684 Falling
Saints 19.636 19.750 1.379 -0.120 Falling
Redskins 11.455 11.750 1.664 0.127 Rising
Giants 6.636 5.125 1.686 -0.695 Falling
Texans 2.909 4.750 1.688 -0.020 Falling
Patriots 1.000 2.750 1.712 0.012 Rising
Titans 27.091 27.375 1.734 -0.634 Falling
Broncos 2.455 3.875 1.905 0.253 Rising
Cowboys 13.636 15.625 1.930 -0.049 Falling
Cardinals 29.455 27.125 1.983 -1.036 Falling
Steelers 13.546 14.000 2.073 -0.279 Falling
Dolphins 22.182 20.875 2.108 0.309 Rising
Chargers 22.000 22.500 2.117 -0.174 Falling
Packers 5.909 7.750 2.202 -0.184 Falling
Browns 21.818 21.750 2.483 0.643 Rising
Bengals 14.727 13.375 2.498 0.648 Rising
Falcons 5.182 9.375 2.605 -0.360 Falling
Seahawks 8.818 4.125 2.661 0.110 Rising
Rams 17.546 15.750 2.706 -0.408 Falling
Bills 24.636 23.125 2.828 -0.039 Falling
Bears 12.273 9.250 2.974 0.331 Rising
Ravens 8.546 12.250 3.275 -0.246 Falling
Buccaneers 17.636 14.375 3.338 0.751 Rising
Vikings 15.273 20.000 3.611 0.739 Rising
Jets 21.182 20.875 4.097 0.206 Rising
Lions 24.636 18.000 4.870 1.262 Rising
Panthers 24.455 18.500 6.065 -0.392 Falling
Colts 9.727 21.875 7.429 0.252 Rising

Observations:

  • No real surprises here.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Colts 9.727 21.875 12.148 0.948 Rising
Vikings 15.273 20.000 4.727 0.777 Rising
Falcons 5.182 9.375 4.193 -0.057 Rising
Ravens 8.546 12.250 3.705 1.055 Rising
Cowboys 13.636 15.625 1.989 -0.186 Rising
Packers 5.909 7.750 1.841 -0.534 Rising
Texans 2.909 4.750 1.841 -0.034 Rising
Patriots 1.000 2.750 1.750 1.825 Rising
Broncos 2.455 3.875 1.421 1.696 Rising
Chiefs 30.818 31.500 0.682 -0.143 Rising
Chargers 22.000 22.500 0.500 2.450 Rising
Steelers 13.546 14.000 0.455 0.055 Rising
Redskins 11.455 11.750 0.296 1.421 Rising
Titans 27.091 27.375 0.284 -1.616 Rising
Eagles 27.091 27.250 0.159 1.684 Rising
Saints 19.636 19.750 0.114 0.239 Rising
Browns 21.818 21.750 -0.068 -0.193 Rising
Jets 21.182 20.875 -0.307 0.718 Rising
Raiders 30.636 30.250 -0.386 -0.011 Rising
Jaguars 31.091 30.500 -0.591 0.184 Rising
Dolphins 22.182 20.875 -1.307 -1.057 Rising
Bengals 14.727 13.375 -1.352 -0.402 Rising
49ers 4.000 2.625 -1.375 -0.150 Rising
Giants 6.636 5.125 -1.511 0.364 Rising
Bills 24.636 23.125 -1.511 -2.636 Rising
Rams 17.546 15.750 -1.796 -0.371 Rising
Cardinals 29.455 27.125 -2.330 0.895 Rising
Bears 12.273 9.250 -3.023 -2.323 Rising
Buccaneers 17.636 14.375 -3.261 -1.561 Rising
Seahawks 8.818 4.125 -4.693 -1.818 Rising
Panthers 24.455 18.500 -5.955 1.345 Rising
Lions 24.636 18.000 -6.636 -2.561 Rising

Observations:

  • The Colts' disparity is growing each week. Now they're over-ranked by over 12 spots. That's almost a 40% over-ranking.
  • The Vikings are the next over-ranked team and it's not even that close at 4.727.
  • The last time a team was over-ranked nearly as much as the Colts are was when the 2010 Chiefs were over-ranked by about 10 spots late in the season. We all know what happened to them.
  • Chargers have definitely settled in now. Their objective and subjective rankings are within 0.5 spots of each other.
  • Carolina — the Chargers' next opponent — is one of the most under-ranked teams.
  • 9 of the 10 most under-ranked teams are in the NFC.

Surely you all have your own observations. Speak up in the comments about what you take away from these rankings.

Sources

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