2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 5

Christian Petersen - Getty Images

There's a new consensus number one team in the NFL this week, and it's not the Falcons or Ravens, and Minnesota continues their ascent in this week's rankings.

This is a crazy year in the NFL, once you think you know which teams are great and which aren't, they go and surprise you the next week. What was the laughing stock a year ago has become the powerhouse division: the NFC West. With the emergence of the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks for a period of time, the NFC West has risen to prominence. The AFC West is barely holding on as not the worst division in the league, but they aren't far off.

One thing I should point out about the subjective rankings this week: I'm not including SportingNews in the rankings as a form of protest. They used to be like every other website out there and list their rankings as one nice long page. Not this week. This week they've decided to take a page out of Bleacher Report's Sleaze Manual and they turned their Power Rankings into a 34-page slideshow. Awful, right? As soon as they go back to the old format that doesn't require 34 mouse clicks (literally), then I'll include them again.

Notable Quotes

ProFootballTalk

Norv Turner finally realizes how ridiculous he sounded when talking about making Ryan Mathews a workhorse.

Umm, excuse me? What a ridiculous thing to say.

Sports Illustrated

So far, so good in San Diego. But Chargers fans know they can't get comfortable with their first-place team. San Diego started last season 4-1, but looked up and was 4-7 and in deep trouble by Thanksgiving weekend. This week's trip to New Orleans is dangerous, because you know the frustrated Saints have to break out and make someone pay at some point. But the Drew Brees and Philip Rivers reunion makes the Sunday nighter worth watching, especially since Brees can break that Johnny Unitas record of 47 consecutive games with at least one touchdown pass.

Fox

The Chargers have some decisions to make in the backfield, and I understand they are concerned with RB Ryan Matthews' fumbling problem. But I don't think they have given him the chance to find his groove yet. Then again, when you have six takeaways in a game, it doesn't really matter whom you have in the backfield.

Reddit

The Chargers had fewer first downs, total plays, total yards, total yards per play, and a worse 3rd down efficiency than KC. Turnovers won the game on Sunday. The defense needs to not go easy when the Chargers are leading, and the offense needs to get their rhythm down if they have any hope of beating contending teams.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC West 11.7778
NFC North 12.7917
NFC East 14.0139
AFC North 15.5278
AFC East 17.9167
NFC South 19.1806
AFC West 20.1389
AFC South 20.6528

Stock Rising

Team Week 4 Average Week 5 Average Difference
STL 26.364 19.364 7.000
MIN 19.000 14.364 4.636
WAS 21.909 18.364 3.545
PHI 11.273 7.909 3.364
SDG 14.455 11.636 2.819

Stock Falling

Team Week 4 Average Week 5 Average Difference
DAL 10.364 15.636 -5.272
NYJ 17.273 22.455 -5.182
SEA 11.818 16.909 -5.091
NYG 5.546 10.091 -4.545
OAK 25.727 28.909 -3.182

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Average Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.091 Rising
Falcons 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.091 -0.091 Falling
49ers 4 3 4 2 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 3.364 0.454 Rising
Ravens 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 3.727 -0.454 Falling
Cardinals 5 5 3 11 5 5 5 5 6 7 5 5.636 1.091 Rising
Patriots 6 9 7 5 6 6 6 6 9 5 6 6.455 1.818 Rising
Eagles 7 6 8 8 8 9 7 8 7 11 8 7.909 3.364 Rising
Packers 8 10 14 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 8.000 -0.636 Falling
Bears 9 7 9 9 9 8 10 11 5 8 9 8.546 1.272 Rising
Giants 10 11 11 7 10 10 9 9 14 9 11 10.091 -4.545 Falling
Chargers 11 12 10 13 13 14 13 10 12 10 10 11.636 2.819 Rising
Bengals 12 8 6 16 12 13 12 14 10 13 12 11.636 1.910 Rising
Broncos 13 13 16 12 14 11 11 13 15 12 13 13.000 2.091 Rising
Vikings 14 14 13 21 11 12 16 16 11 16 14 14.364 4.636 Rising
Steelers 16 16 12 10 18 18 14 15 13 14 15 14.636 -0.909 Falling
Cowboys 15 15 17 14 17 19 15 12 17 15 16 15.636 -5.272 Falling
Seahawks 17 19 15 18 16 16 17 17 16 18 17 16.909 -5.091 Falling
Redskins 18 17 19 20 19 20 18 18 18 17 18 18.364 3.545 Rising
Rams 19 18 18 24 15 15 19 23 22 21 19 19.364 7.000 Rising
Bills 21 20 20 22 21 17 20 19 19 20 20 19.909 -1.636 Falling
Lions 20 21 24 15 22 25 22 20 20 19 21 20.818 -2.000 Falling
Jets 23 27 22 23 20 22 21 21 21 24 23 22.455 -5.182 Falling
Buccaneers 22 22 26 25 23 23 23 22 23 23 24 23.273 -1.000 Falling
Panthers 24 23 29 19 24 21 24 24 26 22 22 23.455 1.000 Rising
Titans 25 25 23 27 30 24 27 26 25 27 29 26.182 -1.818 Falling
Dolphins 26 26 30 26 25 30 25 25 27 25 25 26.364 2.636 Rising
Saints 28 24 31 17 27 28 26 28 28 29 26 26.546 0.363 Rising
Chiefs 27 28 25 28 26 27 28 27 29 26 27 27.091 -2.636 Falling
Raiders 29 30 21 31 31 31 29 29 31 28 28 28.909 -3.182 Falling
Colts 31 29 28 30 29 26 30 31 24 31 31 29.091 0.727 Rising
Jaguars 30 31 27 32 28 29 31 30 30 30 30 29.818 -0.454 Falling
Browns 32 32 32 29 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.727 0.091 Rising

Observations:

  • What wasn't a unanimous consensus last week has become just that: the Houston Texans are your (subjectively) unanimous number-one team.
  • Amusing to me that the Steelers dropped an average of one whole spot, on their bye week. Guess they had to make room for a better team.
  • For the most part, NFL.com and AP are the closest to the overall consensus. That makes sense though, seeing as how both of their rankings are made up by a consensus vote.
  • Chargers rose another almost 3 spots this week. Chiefs dropped nearly as much.
  • USA Today has the Saints at #17. As you'll see shortly, that's ridiculous.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.288 Falling
Falcons 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.288 -0.138 Falling
Ravens 3 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 0.617 -0.133 Falling
49ers 4 3 4 2 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 0.643 0.257 Rising
Browns 32 32 32 29 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.862 0.287 Rising
Redskins 18 17 19 20 19 20 18 18 18 17 18 0.979 -0.104 Falling
Chiefs 27 28 25 28 26 27 28 27 29 26 27 1.083 -0.642 Falling
Seahawks 17 19 15 18 16 16 17 17 16 18 17 1.083 -1.707 Falling
Buccaneers 22 22 26 25 23 23 23 22 23 23 24 1.213 -0.497 Falling
Bills 21 20 20 22 21 17 20 19 19 20 20 1.240 -0.523 Falling
Eagles 7 6 8 8 8 9 7 8 7 11 8 1.240 -1.286 Falling
Patriots 6 9 7 5 6 6 6 6 9 5 6 1.305 -0.115 Falling
Jaguars 30 31 27 32 28 29 31 30 30 30 30 1.336 -0.096 Falling
Chargers 11 12 10 13 13 14 13 10 12 10 10 1.432 -0.956 Falling
Broncos 13 13 16 12 14 11 11 13 15 12 13 1.477 -0.544 Falling
Bears 9 7 9 9 9 8 10 11 5 8 9 1.499 -0.028 Falling
Giants 10 11 11 7 10 10 9 9 14 9 11 1.676 0.785 Rising
Cowboys 15 15 17 14 17 19 15 12 17 15 16 1.772 -0.455 Falling
Dolphins 26 26 30 26 25 30 25 25 27 25 25 1.823 0.409 Rising
Jets 23 27 22 23 20 22 21 21 21 24 23 1.827 0.344 Rising
Cardinals 5 5 3 11 5 5 5 5 6 7 5 1.920 -0.496 Falling
Titans 25 25 23 27 30 24 27 26 25 27 29 1.992 0.169 Rising
Packers 8 10 14 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 2.174 -0.695 Falling
Colts 31 29 28 30 29 26 30 31 24 31 31 2.193 0.112 Rising
Steelers 16 16 12 10 18 18 14 15 13 14 15 2.307 0.493 Rising
Panthers 24 23 29 19 24 21 24 24 26 22 22 2.500 -0.209 Falling
Lions 20 21 24 15 22 25 22 20 20 19 21 2.516 -0.463 Falling
Bengals 12 8 6 16 12 13 12 14 10 13 12 2.638 0.490 Rising
Vikings 14 14 13 21 11 12 16 16 11 16 14 2.739 0.042 Rising
Raiders 29 30 21 31 31 31 29 29 31 28 28 2.745 -0.273 Falling
Rams 19 18 18 24 15 15 19 23 22 21 19 2.805 0.838 Rising
Saints 28 24 31 17 27 28 26 28 28 29 26 3.474 -0.398 Falling

Observations:

  • No surprise here that the 5 lowest Standard Deviation are the 5 teams closest to the top and bottom.
  • On the whole, the overall Standard Deviation dropped this week, teams are settling in more and more and a consensus across the board is slowly developing.
  • The Chargers are far more consistent this week in their rankings. Their StdDev dropped by nearly 1.
  • Even though the Chargers and Bengals were exactly tied in the Subjective Average, the Bengals are in the bottom 5 as far as ranking consistency. Their ranking swings anywhere from 6th to 16th!
  • USA Today is throwing a wrench in the rankings for the Rams, Saints and Vikings.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Average Change since last period
Texans 4 1 1 1 6 1 1 2.143 3.107 Rising
Falcons 2 2 3 5 5 6 2 3.571 -1.071 Falling
Ravens 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 4.286 -0.536 Falling
Patriots 1 8 5 2 11 2 6 5.000 1.500 Rising
49ers 6 7 7 3 7 3 7 5.714 2.786 Rising
Bears 8 9 9 7 8 8 5 7.714 5.286 Rising
Cardinals 22 17 2 6 1 4 4 8.000 -0.250 Falling
Broncos 7 3 11 10 15 7 9 8.857 5.393 Rising
Vikings 10 13 10 13 3 10 8 9.571 4.679 Rising
Eagles 12 6 8 15 2 15 12 10.000 0.250 Rising
Packers 3 15 14 8 16 12 10 11.143 -0.893 Falling
Giants 9 10 17 9 18 11 11 12.143 -3.393 Falling
Chargers 17 16 12 11 9 16 13 13.429 0.821 Rising
Seahawks 11 26 13 14 10 9 14 13.857 -5.857 Falling
Bengals 20 12 6 16 13 13 18 14.000 4.250 Rising
Dolphins 13 11 22 20 20 14 20 17.143 3.107 Rising
Cowboys 21 14 20 18 12 21 23 18.429 -6.679 Falling
Steelers 14 25 23 12 21 19 17 18.714 -2.714 Falling
Bills 19 20 24 21 22 27 19 21.714 -8.214 Falling
Lions 18 18 26 22 25 20 24 21.857 -0.107 Falling
Redskins 23 30 21 17 28 18 16 21.857 3.143 Rising
Jets 24 24 18 23 14 25 28 22.286 -10.786 Falling
Rams 31 23 16 29 26 17 15 22.429 8.321 Rising
Panthers 16 4 31 28 31 28 21 22.714 3.786 Rising
Colts 26 29 19 25 17 26 27 24.143 3.357 Rising
Jaguars 29 28 15 30 23 24 29 25.429 -1.679 Falling
Titans 28 19 25 27 19 30 30 25.429 -0.179 Falling
Browns 27 21 28 26 29 23 26 25.714 4.536 Rising
Buccaneers 25 31 30 24 30 22 22 26.286 -2.036 Falling
Saints 15 32 32 19 32 29 25 26.286 -1.536 Falling
Raiders 30 22 27 32 24 31 31 28.143 -3.143 Falling
Chiefs 32 27 29 31 27 32 32 30.000 -5.250 Falling

Observations:

  • You'll notice I've added a few more objective sites. Making a return this week is Team Efficiency. New this week are: Pro Football Reference and Cold Hard Football Facts.
  • When using objective rankings like this, it's helpful to look at the outliers. Look at Football Outsiders and Team Efficiency ranking the Cardinals. Or Team Efficiency's ranking for the Panthers. Interesting.
  • Sharp delineation from the Bengals on down.
  • Jets and Bills are plummeting.
  • Oh look, the Chiefs are at the bottom of this list. Next to the Raiders. And then the Saints. Oh and the Titans are only 3 spots from the Saints. So should the Chargers beat the Saints on Sunday night, they'll be 4-1, with wins against 4 of the 6 worst objectively-ranked teams. Talk about a cake schedule (not that I'm complaining).

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Standard Deviation Change since last period
Ravens 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 0.700 -1.465 Falling
Bears 8 9 9 7 8 8 5 1.278 -3.570 Falling
Falcons 2 2 3 5 5 6 2 1.591 0.473 Rising
49ers 6 7 7 3 7 3 7 1.750 0.092 Rising
Texans 4 1 1 1 6 1 1 1.884 -0.977 Falling
Chiefs 32 27 29 31 27 32 32 2.138 -1.629 Falling
Browns 27 21 28 26 29 23 26 2.603 1.124 Rising
Bills 19 20 24 21 22 27 19 2.711 -0.643 Falling
Chargers 17 16 12 11 9 16 13 2.770 -1.993 Falling
Lions 18 18 26 22 25 20 24 3.044 -1.613 Falling
Vikings 10 13 10 13 3 10 8 3.156 -2.942 Falling
Patriots 1 8 5 2 11 2 6 3.381 -1.934 Falling
Broncos 7 3 11 10 15 7 9 3.482 -0.285 Falling
Giants 9 10 17 9 18 11 11 3.482 0.994 Rising
Raiders 30 22 27 32 24 31 31 3.603 1.053 Rising
Buccaneers 25 31 30 24 30 22 22 3.653 2.354 Rising
Cowboys 21 14 20 18 12 21 23 3.736 0.391 Rising
Dolphins 13 11 22 20 20 14 20 4.015 2.925 Rising
Colts 26 29 19 25 17 26 27 4.086 2.586 Rising
Packers 3 15 14 8 16 12 10 4.223 0.077 Rising
Bengals 20 12 6 16 13 13 18 4.243 -0.874 Falling
Steelers 14 25 23 12 21 19 17 4.366 -0.377 Falling
Jets 24 24 18 23 14 25 28 4.366 3.866 Rising
Titans 28 19 25 27 19 30 30 4.371 2.451 Rising
Eagles 12 6 8 15 2 15 12 4.504 -0.465 Falling
Jaguars 29 28 15 30 23 24 29 4.924 0.901 Rising
Redskins 23 30 21 17 28 18 16 5.055 0.812 Rising
Seahawks 11 26 13 14 10 9 14 5.276 -1.243 Falling
Rams 31 23 16 29 26 17 15 6.044 4.745 Rising
Saints 15 32 32 19 32 29 25 6.408 -1.970 Falling
Cardinals 22 17 2 6 1 4 4 7.540 -1.983 Falling
Panthers 16 4 31 28 31 28 21 9.192 4.167 Rising

Observations:

  • The Ravens have the lowest Standard Deviation on the Objective graphs, and I'll show you why that's noteworthy in a moment.
  • The Chiefs are not only at the bottom of the list, but they're there consistently. Even though they beat the Saints, they've not played well at all this year.
  • Again, the NFC is the more difficult to rank conference as they account for 7 of the 8 least-consistently-ranked teams.
  • The Chargers are kind of in the middle of consistency, but they've improved this week.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Texans 1.000 2.143 1.571 1.599 Rising
Falcons 2.091 3.571 2.831 -0.581 Falling
Ravens 3.727 4.286 4.007 -0.496 Falling
49ers 3.364 5.714 4.539 1.620 Rising
Patriots 6.455 5.000 5.727 1.659 Rising
Cardinals 5.636 8.000 6.818 0.421 Rising
Bears 8.546 7.714 8.130 3.279 Rising
Eagles 7.909 10.000 8.955 1.806 Rising
Packers 8.000 11.143 9.571 -0.764 Falling
Broncos 13.000 8.857 10.929 3.741 Rising
Giants 10.091 12.143 11.117 -3.969 Falling
Vikings 14.364 9.571 11.968 4.657 Rising
Chargers 11.636 13.429 12.533 1.819 Rising
Bengals 11.636 14.000 12.818 3.080 Rising
Seahawks 16.909 13.857 15.383 -5.474 Falling
Steelers 14.636 18.714 16.675 -1.811 Falling
Cowboys 15.636 18.429 17.033 -5.976 Falling
Redskins 18.364 21.857 20.110 3.345 Rising
Bills 19.909 21.714 20.812 -4.926 Falling
Rams 19.364 22.429 20.896 7.661 Rising
Lions 20.818 21.857 21.338 -1.054 Falling
Dolphins 26.364 17.143 21.753 2.872 Rising
Jets 22.455 22.286 22.370 -7.984 Falling
Panthers 23.455 22.714 23.084 2.393 Rising
Buccaneers 23.273 26.286 24.779 -1.518 Falling
Titans 26.182 25.429 25.805 -0.998 Falling
Saints 26.546 26.286 26.416 -0.586 Falling
Colts 29.091 24.143 26.617 2.042 Rising
Jaguars 29.818 25.429 27.623 -1.066 Falling
Raiders 28.909 28.143 28.526 -3.162 Falling
Chiefs 27.091 30.000 28.545 -3.943 Falling
Browns 31.727 25.714 28.721 2.313 Rising

Observations:

  • Once you factor in both sets of sources, the Texans are still far-and-away the best team in the NFL right now.
  • Even though they were ranked higher than the Broncos in the Subjective rankings, overall, the Broncos are ranked higher than the Chargers.
  • All the hope and hype in Dallas this year is quickly dying.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Ravens 3.727 4.286 0.705 -0.601 Falling
Falcons 2.091 3.571 1.247 0.529 Rising
Texans 1.000 2.143 1.301 -1.071 Falling
Bears 8.546 7.714 1.474 -1.681 Falling
49ers 3.364 5.714 1.660 -0.605 Falling
Chiefs 27.091 30.000 2.123 -0.323 Falling
Bills 19.909 21.714 2.138 -0.982 Falling
Chargers 11.636 13.429 2.236 -0.964 Falling
Patriots 6.455 5.000 2.447 -0.656 Falling
Giants 10.091 12.143 2.726 0.667 Rising
Lions 20.818 21.857 2.780 -0.958 Falling
Buccaneers 23.273 26.286 2.872 1.039 Rising
Cowboys 15.636 18.429 3.033 0.388 Rising
Jets 22.455 22.286 3.076 0.213 Rising
Raiders 28.909 28.143 3.129 0.211 Rising
Eagles 7.909 10.000 3.141 -0.245 Falling
Titans 26.182 25.429 3.160 1.270 Rising
Broncos 13.000 8.857 3.182 0.552 Rising
Browns 31.727 25.714 3.418 2.275 Rising
Packers 8.000 11.143 3.489 -0.011 Falling
Bengals 11.636 14.000 3.547 -0.286 Falling
Redskins 18.364 21.857 3.664 0.920 Rising
Seahawks 16.909 13.857 3.709 -0.751 Falling
Vikings 14.364 9.571 3.731 -0.703 Falling
Steelers 14.636 18.714 3.823 0.753 Rising
Jaguars 29.818 25.429 3.886 0.424 Rising
Colts 29.091 24.143 3.905 1.708 Rising
Rams 19.364 22.429 4.609 1.954 Rising
Saints 26.546 26.286 4.833 -0.701 Falling
Cardinals 5.636 8.000 5.069 -0.285 Falling
Dolphins 26.364 17.143 5.339 1.246 Rising
Panthers 23.455 22.714 6.067 2.471 Rising

Observations:

  • Ravens again the most consistently-ranked team, overall. Significantly more consistent than the Falcons or Texans.
  • Chargers are relatively consistent this week.
  • Overall, things are a bit more balanced as far as conference is concerned. Now the NFC and AFC each have 4 of the 8 least-consistent rankings.
  • Even though their average Subjective and Objective rankings are rather similar, the Panthers rankings are all over the board.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Steelers 14.636 18.714 4.078 -1.805 Falling
Redskins 18.364 21.857 3.494 -0.403 Falling
Packers 8.000 11.143 3.143 -0.257 Falling
Rams 19.364 22.429 3.065 1.321 Rising
Buccaneers 23.273 26.286 3.013 -1.036 Falling
Chiefs 27.091 30.000 2.909 -2.613 Falling
Cowboys 15.636 18.429 2.792 -1.406 Falling
Bengals 11.636 14.000 2.364 2.341 Rising
Cardinals 5.636 8.000 2.364 -1.341 Falling
49ers 3.364 5.714 2.351 2.331 Rising
Eagles 7.909 10.000 2.091 -3.114 Falling
Giants 10.091 12.143 2.052 1.153 Rising
Bills 19.909 21.714 1.805 -6.578 Falling
Chargers 11.636 13.429 1.792 -1.997 Falling
Falcons 2.091 3.571 1.481 -0.981 Falling
Texans 1.000 2.143 1.143 3.016 Rising
Lions 20.818 21.857 1.039 1.893 Rising
Ravens 3.727 4.286 0.558 -0.081 Falling
Jets 22.455 22.286 -0.169 -5.604 Falling
Saints 26.546 26.286 -0.260 -1.899 Falling
Panthers 23.455 22.714 -0.740 2.786 Rising
Titans 26.182 25.429 -0.753 1.639 Rising
Raiders 28.909 28.143 -0.766 0.039 Rising
Bears 8.546 7.714 -0.831 4.013 Rising
Patriots 6.455 5.000 -1.455 -0.318 Falling
Seahawks 16.909 13.857 -3.052 -0.766 Falling
Broncos 13.000 8.857 -4.143 3.302 Rising
Jaguars 29.818 25.429 -4.390 -1.224 Falling
Vikings 14.364 9.571 -4.792 0.042 Rising
Colts 29.091 24.143 -4.948 2.630 Rising
Browns 31.727 25.714 -6.013 4.445 Rising
Dolphins 26.364 17.143 -9.221 0.471 Rising

Observations:

  • Pittsburgh Steelers: not as good as they seem apparently. Or maybe they're actually better than they've been playing?
  • The RGIII excitement is still keeping the Redskins buoyed.
  • The Chargers are ranked slightly higher than they've been playing, but nothing ridiculous.
  • Remember me pointing out the Ravens Standard Deviation being the lowest? Well look at their difference in averages. They're spot-on as a number-4 team in the NFL across the board, they're that good.
  • Even thought the Chiefs are ranked in the bottom-5 subjectively, it seems to still be too high.
  • Ahh the Dolphins, everyone's favorite whipping-boy this year. Still can't get any respect.
  • The Browns are actually playing much better than people want to believe.

Sources

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