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Norv Turner and A.J. Smith: Don't Call It A Comeback

The conversation I had repeatedly this season, when talking to the rest of the BFTB staff about the San Diego Chargers' impending situation at Head Coach and General Manager, went a little something like this.

Me: It's such a odd place to be in. You're trying to determine who has been good and who hasn't. Is it the Head Coach's fault that he regularly loses half of his stars to injury? That would seemingly be on the General Manager, who picks the players, or the training staff. But which one is it? It seems like a total crapshoot to fire just Norv. What if Norv wasn't the problem at all? What if neither Norv or AJ is the problem and that drunk doctor that the team uses and everyone hates is really a terrible doctor? What if AJ is still drafting great players, but we just never get to see them play because they're always hurt? What if Jeff Hurd, beloved by all, isn't a very good strength and conditioning coach? I mean, if the players are getting hurt early in the season and coming back strong at the end of the season, you'd have to think there's something wrong with the offseason workout plan, right? The option everyone wants to take is to eliminate the risk of choosing wrong and just fire everybody, but how well is that going for Steve Spagnoulo? There's probably a 90% chance we end up with a worse coach or GM or both and maybe a worse training staff too. The percentage chance that they could fix everything by getting a new training staff has to be better than that, right? Anyway, to answer your question, I'm doing pretty good.

Random BFTB Staff Member: You're nuts. Money, please?

Me: NO!

So, as you can see, I've been torn all along. Which, me being an optimist and a Chargers fan, I was probably going to find the silver lining in whatever decision was made that didn't involve Jon Gruden. After the jump, I'll give you my take on Norv and AJ unpacking their boxes and rehanging their family photos on the walls of their offices at Chargers Park.

Star-divide

I don't have much of an issue with those guys staying. The blame needed to be pointed at one of three things: Norv Turner, A.J. Smith or "injuries". Dean Spanos chose to go with the last one, and it's hard to argue him on that. The team, when healthy, looked like one of the most talented teams in the league (credit to A.J. Smith) and the play-calling was brilliant (credit Norv Turner, mastermind of a top-flight offense ever since he took over). That doesn't mean their flaws don't exist, but it does mean they at least each have a feather in their cap that can't be ignored when making this decision.

The healthiest periods of the season for San Diego also coincided with a 4-1 record to start the season and a 4-1 record to end the season. When the team was in shambles, struggling to field an offensive line, the team went 0-6. If you looked at those two sentences in a nutshell, you would think that the team is not far off from being good if they can figure out how to stay healthy throughout the course of a season.

That's what Dean Spanos is banking on, but he has to be aggressive in this decision. If he's not firing Norv and AJ, the entire training staff and coaches need to be fired. They need to be replaced with a creative group that uses different techniques and has different ideologies from the last group. It is the only way that the injuries stand a chance to get better, and it would be some good PR as well (David Chao should've been gone long ago and after the Kris Dielman incident many players are openly questioning how little the trainers care about their health).

Changes are coming on the defensive side of the ball as well. Most of the defensive coaching staff was brought in by Ron Rivera and were with him in Chicago as well, including Steve Wilks and Don Johnson. Rivera wanted to take these guys to Carolina with him, but they were all under contract through 2011 and the Chargers wouldn't let them go. Now that they're all essentially "free agents", it wouldn't surprise me to see most (if not all) of those guys go to the Panthers to work with their old mentor.

If that happens, that just leaves Greg Manusky (who has an unimpressive first year in San Diego after an unimpressive stint with the 49ers) and John Pagano (who has supposedly been offered by Jim Mora Jr. the Defensive Coordinator position at UCLA). Pagano is unproven and probably wouldn't offer anything too different from what we've seen the last few years on defense. Manusky is likely the scapegoat, but will be fired more because there should be a few upgrades out there and the Chargers need to play better defense quickly.

Mike Nolan is a name that I threw out there on Twitter yesterday. It looks like the Dolphins are doing what many Chargers fans want, firing their entire coaching staff and then wining and dining the biggest free agent coaches in hopes to bring them to South Beach. Due to that, Nolan's time as their Defensive Coordinator seems like it could be coming to it's end, and I can't think of a better landing spot for him than San Diego. A coaching staff of him, Norv and Bisaccia is almost a "dream team", and it would put him towards the top of the list of Head Coach candidates if his defense played well and the team still found a way to not make the playoffs in 2012.

Okay, got a little off-track there. To summarize my feelings about the non-move, I'm okay with it. It's not exciting, which is why people are threatening to get rid of their tickets. In a way, it's a toughest decision Dean Spanos could've made, but he didn't make it without reason. Based on what I've seen when the team is healthy, I'm okay with giving these guys one more year to see if they can find a problem other than themselves. However, the guys that are being blamed as the problem need to be shown the door and replaced with some fresh, creative blood. I hope they can pull it off.

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The 4-1 start was a mirage.

Their performances in that stretch were on par with the losing streak. THey simply played weak competition and got lucky.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 4, 2012 11:18 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Yes, I agree

with you in that regard. They were not playing good and let’s keep in mind this is a team that beat only one team with a winning record all year. They didn’t even play a complete game until Week 13. Injuries or not I don’t really see how that is acceptable.

by BruinsBolts on Jan 4, 2012 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Exacta.

I remember the only people who saw the Chargers as a threat just before they played the Jets were people who weren’t following them.

The Chargers weren’t even halfway decent until the end of the season. Even then, their performance level was unpredictable.

by Kame on Jan 4, 2012 11:25 AM PST up reply actions  

this

I dont know how John can pull an about-face like this. The terrible play in games, even ones we won, is still the result if poor coaching (especially off season prep, play calling, and making game adjustments on the fly). Even the playbook confidential posts would disagree with Norv being a play calling “mastermind”.

#feelinacertaintypeofway

by sd_Baby-B on Jan 4, 2012 11:51 AM PST via Android app up reply actions  

What off-season?

"The only thing I hate more than Raiders fans is Chargers fans." - A Chargers fan

Gaslamp Ball Wiki - All you need to know about Gaslamp Ball, its members, and all the inside jokes
Bolts from the Blue

by creanium on Jan 4, 2012 11:55 AM PST up reply actions  

the Chargers have been in the top of nearly every meaningful offensive stat since Norv arrived, and that includes this year.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Jan 4, 2012 11:57 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

This

We are a fantasy football generation in love with stats. Let me tell you what stat matters 8-8 and missing the playoffs. The win-loss column is the only stat that matters. I am so sick of hearing about stats. Stats can be read in any way imaginable and prove nothing (as far as I am concerned).
This comment shows why so many people are still in love with a mediocre coach and defend Spanos’ decision. I think John and this comment are completely wrong. He needed to go. Missing the playoffs two years in a row is not acceptable, end of story.

by BoltfromBoston on Jan 4, 2012 1:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Are you interested in where the wins and losses come from?

Or are they just magically bestowed upon teams by the football gods?

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 4, 2012 1:47 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

8-8 and missing the playoffs matters. However, it doesn't tell you all that much either.

Being “anti-stats” is just lazy. To come to any sort of conclusion about anything you need data. The statistics kept on the games are one of the most valuable sources. To throw those out completely is to be entirely intellectually unserious.

Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Jan 4, 2012 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

16 games is a lousy sample.

That’s part of what makes the NFL so fun. A bad team can beat a good team, and if they do it in a soft patch, they can look like a good team themselves. A good team can look like a bad team because they have a stretch of Murphy’s Law, like a fumbled snap and a missed chip-shot and a couple key injuries.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 5, 2012 8:46 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I was thinking about this, and I'm not sure you're right

The thing that started me thinking was lamenting the Lions loss this year and the Bengals loss last year. Part of the problem with both of those is that we needed to win a late season game on the road against a good team. That is a 50/50 proposition at best. I came to the conclusion that the Lions loss wasn’t the problem, every team is going to lay a few eggs during the year and doing so on the road against a good team around Christmas seems ripe for egg laying. The problem was that we didn’t win games earlier in the year, specifically during the 6 game losing streak.

And the main problem with that losing streak was that we didn’t beat teams we should have beaten. You’re never going to be hitting on all cylinders every game of the season, you’re going to have some downers. And going 4-1 through those first 5 games was the classic example of getting your wins against the teams you should, no matter how ugly they are (and it turns out the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Broncos weren’t that bad after all).

The 4-1 start is what a good team does as it struggles through some bad games, the 4-1 end is what a good team does when it’s running on all cylinders, and the 0-6 middle is what happens when you play bad games and don’t get those 2-3 extra impact plays you need to win the game.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Jan 4, 2012 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

All those things might be true

but it doesn’t change the fact that they played poorly the first five weeks, and were lucky to pull out wins. It’s not a case of “playing well the first five weeks, getting hurt and losing the next six, then getting healthy and playing well again.” It was a case of “playing like crap but getting lucky, playing like crap and not getting lucky, playing well”.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 4, 2012 12:03 PM PST up reply actions  

There is a lot of things to look at

but I think it is as simple as Rivers playing like crap until late in the year. We could argue about the reasons but if he plays at his usual level the team wins 10 or 11 games this year and all this trying to place the blame just doesn’t happen.

by JeromeB on Jan 4, 2012 1:16 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Acee said that Wilks and Pagano will get their shot here

I agree that Nolan would be a great move. That’s the next best thing to getting Wade back.

"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner

by Cake or Death on Jan 4, 2012 11:22 AM PST reply actions  

I don't like agreeing with you in public, John, but I completely agree that any non-Gruden decision was palatable.

Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Jan 4, 2012 11:22 AM PST reply actions   2 recs

And I'd just like to remind people that the movie Major League wasn't a documentary.

Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Jan 4, 2012 11:25 AM PST reply actions   2 recs

this

#feelinacertaintypeofway

by sd_Baby-B on Jan 4, 2012 11:40 AM PST via Android app up reply actions  

Wow

And as a devout pessimist, 40+ years of watching this team has taught me to just lie back and take it (which is about as close to optimism as I can get).

by Andy (allfield) on Jan 4, 2012 12:02 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Keeping Norv also isn't necessarily the correct move

How about making a change in order to improve the team? Obviously, easier said then done, but still possible. Spanos maybe is too afraid to that risk and/or does not think it is at all likely with the current pool of coaches, but you never know until you try.

I wish Spanos had made a play at Harbaugh last year.

by BruinsBolts on Jan 4, 2012 1:59 PM PST up reply actions  

You don't know, but if you think that making a change is more likely to hurt than help, it would be foolish to do it.

Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Jan 4, 2012 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Spanos has obviously been wrong before

, so it is possible it is the case here as well. Obviously, he must have thought Norv is the superior to coach to Harbaugh or he would have made a play last year if success on the football field is purely what he is looking for. Harbaugh looks like a great hire for the 49ers thus far and it does sadden me that the Chargers could have very well gotten him.

I apologize if it is wrong to mention this (and let me know if I am), but isn’t Spanos so convinced Rick Perry is the right person to lead the United States that he is fundraising for him? That really makes me question his judgement when it comes to identifying effective leaders even more.

by BruinsBolts on Jan 4, 2012 2:10 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

In general, you don't fire a coach coming off a winning season with no provocation to try to replace him with an...

…untested college coach. College coaches haven’t had that much success transitioning to the pros in recent years.

Please refrain from discussing politics here.

Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Jan 4, 2012 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Ok

but again you could easily argue Norv underachieved last year and that the loss to a bad Bengals team in a must-win justified a change. And we all saw the result this year of what keeping Norv entailed.

I think it is a little different with Harbaugh given his experience as a long-time NFL QB, the success of his brother as a Head Coach in the NFL, and how he turned around two college football programs quickly. That’s why I wanted Harbaugh here and was upset when the 49ers got him since I thought he may very well have chosen the Chargers over them if they were competing.

Sorry about that, but I do think it sheds some light on his judgement.

by BruinsBolts on Jan 4, 2012 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

You could certainly make that argument. I just don't think it's particularly sound.

I’d be happier with Harbaugh than Turner, too, though.

Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Jan 4, 2012 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Aren't we supposed to keep politics out?

I doubt that anyone’s offended; i think even a lot of Republicans who would be inclined to support Perry agree that fundraising for him at this point is kind of silly, though I’m not one of those (and I don’t think like a Republican), so I couldn’t tell you for sure.

But a) let’s keep it to football (unless we’re mocking Tim Tebow: he opens the door by bringing it into the game), and b) let’s not fault people for fundraising for their friends. When my buddy ran for a city council seat about 15 years ago, I raised money for him, even though I wasn’t convinced he was as qualified as his opponent. (He lost by 14 votes….) You’d do it too, if you were as well-connected as Spanos and had close friends in politics.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 5, 2012 9:01 AM PST up reply actions  

*not one of those = not Repub OR Perry supporter

Just think that kind of post belongs elsewhere, is all.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 5, 2012 9:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Yes,

we’re not supposed to mention politics as pointed out by Mr. Wade above, so I’ll refrain from doing so in the future.

by BruinsBolts on Jan 5, 2012 10:06 AM PST up reply actions  

You can't talk about coaching candidates without

thinking about whether they would be acceptable to Smith. I am only guessing, but I think that Smith would say (or maybe did say) to Spanos, “Turner is my guy. I he goes, I go.” Smith has to have complete control, and the only way that you get a new head coach is if he picks him ( or they both go). And if he picks him, it has to be someone he can control. I don’t think that Spanos picks head coaches.

by bhound56 on Jan 4, 2012 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Supposedly he didn't say that.

Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Jan 4, 2012 6:34 PM PST up reply actions  

A change to improve the team?

What and idea! I’m all for it!

I just don’t think that firing Norv or AJ is that change.

by CABurrito on Jan 4, 2012 6:43 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I too agree with most of what you say

But I would add that there is more that is necessary to fixing this team than simply adjusting the defensive coaching staff and/or the strength and conditioning staff. This year, more than ever, the teams “braintrust” needs a very focused plan on addressing and fixing the team’s weaknesses.

The fanbase has been doused in kerosene. Any misstep and we’re likely to BLOW! Careful… careful… Make the right moves…..

(And BTW, I’m not implying that John or anyone thinks that ONLY fixing the coaching staff is all this teams needs. I’m sure several more posts will follow that will detail our armchair GM’s strategies. I look forward to them.)

by Andy (allfield) on Jan 4, 2012 12:06 PM PST reply actions  

I heard someone say

That Mathews lead the afc in DVAR (Zach maybe) I checked and it said he was second, to MJD.
Anyone know?

by cameronm on Jan 4, 2012 12:19 PM PST reply actions  

Add rushing and receiving DYAR.

Mathews: 355 DYAR
Jones-Drew: 295 DYAR

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 4, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

Oh crap

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Jan 4, 2012 12:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh yes

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say sh-- or fu-- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
Bolts from the Blue
Join my 4,554 other followers on twitter. @poyzinous

by Superduperboltman on Jan 4, 2012 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

3 NFL games in 10 days!!

Another thing people are forgetting to mention is that the Chargers played 3 games in ten days!! I think that’s absolutely nuts… and whoever created the schedule seriously sabotaged our beloved Bolts.

We had a game on 10/31… 11/6… and 11/10!!! No wonder we had so many injuries because thats pretty rough

by David Conrique on Jan 4, 2012 12:47 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Good point

Although I feel like Denver did something similar.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Jan 4, 2012 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Green Bay did

They went 3-0.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Jan 4, 2012 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

I mean I’m not saying its the ultimate excuse but it definitely played a part in the injury fiasco. Chiefs, Packers and Raiders are who we played in that stretch. If I recall we had a bunch of injuries occur in those 3 games.

by David Conrique on Jan 4, 2012 1:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Sick of the excuses. Sick. Of. It.

Clippers // Chargers // Rays // Boise State
"The Lakers do win games. But things can change." - Blake Griffin

by 82-0 on Jan 4, 2012 3:51 PM PST up reply actions  

A 90% chance?

John, no offense mate, but your assumption that there is a 90% chance that if the Bolts rid themselves of Norv, AJ, and the training staff, we will end up with something worse. I beg to differ. Yes, the training staff is not up to par and needs to go, but the Bolts are far to talented a team to miss the playoffs year after year. Injuries are definitely a problem, but to use that as an excuse is to say that no other team in the NFl has injuries. Sometimes change is a good thing, sometimes not, but there is a word for doing the same exact same thing time after time and hoping for a different result, and that word is ‘delusional’. The 49’s had a fairly decent coach in Mike Singeltary and the easy, safe thing to do would have been to keep him for another year, but they took a chance with John Harbaugh and are now firmly in the playoffs while the Bolts and their fans spend another post season wondering what might have been.

by El Guapo on Jan 5, 2012 8:40 AM PST reply actions  

How about 80%?

Starting over usually sucks. When it doesn’t it’s usually flash-in-the-pan.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 5, 2012 9:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Even at 80%,

that’s like saying that Norv and AJ are in the top 20% of coach/GM’s in the NFL today. Looking at Norvs overall record, thats not the case and AJ seems to be constantly reminding people that in 2007 (4 years ago) he made some great drafts and trades, which he did, BUT 2009/2010/2011 was, shall we say……not so hot! Look at the Detroit Lions who held onto Matt Millan as GM waaaaay to long. The worst thing that can happen to any business is not recognizing that a change is needed and being afraid to make that change.

by El Guapo on Jan 5, 2012 10:42 AM PST reply actions  

Only 5 teams have more playoff appearances and only 6 have more playoff wins

Than the Chargers since Turner came on in ’07. So yes, I would put them in the top 20% of coach/GM tandems. And I’d say the 2010 draft with Mathews, Butler, and Thomas is looking pretty solid.

by SuperSalami on Jan 5, 2012 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I would argue last year's

Liuget, Gilchrist, Brown was pretty solid as well.

by Ferguson1015 on Jan 5, 2012 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

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