Chargers Offseason: Nate Kaeding or Nick Novak?
by John Gennaro on Jan 19, 2012 10:30 AM PST
in San Diego Chargers Offseason
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One question looming over the San Diego Chargers' offseason is at Placekicker. Nate Kaeding held the job as one of the most accurate Kickers in the league for seven seasons after being drafted by the Bolts in the 3rd round of the 2004 NFL Draft.
After his rookie season, in which he made 80% of his FG attempts (and 60% of FG attempts from 50+ yards), Kaeding stayed about 82% in terms of FG accuracy ever season. His career FG accuracy is 86.5%, making him the most accurate FG kicker in the history of the NFL
Nick Novak has had an up-and-down career after signing with the Redskins as an undrafted free agent following the 2005 NFL Draft. After Nate Kaeding was injured on the first play of the season, and Mike Scifres filled in for the rest of the game, Novak was signed off the street by the Chargers and started what would be the best season of his career.
After getting off to a fast start and not missing a FG until mid-season, Novak regressed back to the shaky Kicker that he's been and finished the season with 79.4% of his kicks going through the uprights (including 57% on FG attempts from 50+ yards).
With the Chargers missing the playoffs, Novak never got a chance to prove that he could be better than Kaeding where the long-time Chargers Kicker has struggled. After missing all 3 of his FG attempts in his last playoff game (2009 vs the Jets), Kaeding's postseason FG accuracy is just 53.3%. Nick Novak has yet to attempt a FG in the playoffs.
Next season, Nick Novak is under contract for $700,000 while Nate Kaeding is owed $2 million as the last year of a seven-year deal.
So, which would you rather have on the Chargers in 2012? The most accurate FG Kicker in history, who has had some bad playoff experiences, or the inconsistent FG Kicker that had a very good first-half of 2011 but has never kicked in the playoffs before?
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Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
Richard Wade - "I feel like me from four years ago would punch present me in the face. I like to think that's because I've grown as a person."
by John Gennaro on Jan 19, 2012 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
Exactly
We know what we will get from Kaeding, unless of course he has a complete turnaround. With Novak we can at least see if he can be clutch in the playoffs.
I hate scooter pie
by Lmbs2slaghtr on Jan 19, 2012 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Costs less.
Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Jan 19, 2012 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
Why?
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
Richard Wade - "I feel like me from four years ago would punch present me in the face. I like to think that's because I've grown as a person."
by John Gennaro on Jan 19, 2012 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
He's a pro bowl caliber kicker
Just had some bad luck in the playoffs IMO
by chargerclipperfan on Jan 19, 2012 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
I'm hesitant to vote...
Don't get excited when it's Wheelie time...
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by Superduperboltman on Jan 19, 2012 10:57 AM PST reply actions
So the difference between them is about $1.7 million?
Is that really a lot of money saved in the context of a football team? Tough call.
"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner
And let's not kid ourselves
Both kickers have flaws, so this comes down to a money decision.
"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner
by Cake or Death on Jan 19, 2012 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Math fail
I mean 1.3 mil.
"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner
by Cake or Death on Jan 19, 2012 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
Yes.
"second base is the bizness." -jbox
Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans
It's quite a bit actually.
Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Jan 19, 2012 2:19 PM PST up reply actions
I am incredibly surprised that Kaeding leads this poll.
A pirate I was meant to be!
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scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 19, 2012 11:11 AM PST reply actions
#Teamincreasedredzoneefficiency
But since it will be very hard to fit that on a t-shirt, I’ll go with Kaeding, with the caveat that he comes back 100% healthy.
Most accurate is still most accurate, and as much as I appreciated Novak’s efforts this season I think Kaeding is still a better choice overall. The short kickoff issue should’t be as much of a problem with the move to the 35 (not withstanding what happened on Kaeding’s 1 kickoff this year).
All that said, I think it will be a close competition and I wouldn’t be surprised if Novak ends up winning, especially when 1.3 millon dollars might be the difference between retaining a key free agent at another position.
To me it's simple...
with Kaeding at least we would have gotten to the playoffs.
i think if we have the opportunity to get Kaeding back, we should… and try to restructure his contract.
"Watch out where the huskies go, don't you eat that yellow snow."- Zappa
Difficult, but....
I keep thinking about the Drew Brees episode. Brees is injured then released. Rivers is a great, elite class QB, but Brees goes on to win a SB. Yeah, I know, apples and oranges, but Kaeding is a proven commodity and while Novak did a fine job, we should stick with the most consistant kicker. I’m sure that there are a whole bunch of teams that would pay top dollar to get their hands on Novak, so I can’t feel too bad for him if he looses his job with the Bolts. He’ll probably get on with a Super Bowl winner.
#TeamScifres Who's with me??
Alright, I’ll be serious, I don’t really care who’s at placekicker. There’s enough of a skill and money gap that either pick is justifiable.
#TeamKaeding
He is an exceptional kicker who has just had a little bit of bad luck in the playoffs. It could take just one postseason of “clutch” to turn that moniker around.
#teamnovak
Has a better leg for kickoffs and I am more confident in him. hes seems more confident in himself, he may be slightly less accurate on any given kick but i think he would be more consistent in the playoffs the kaeding.
Damn right he's confident.
He peed on the sideline
by bstew95 on Jan 19, 2012 12:54 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I am leaning towards Kaeding
but I hope that both come to camp and Nate has to battle a little for his spot.
Easiest Decision in the off season
Novak is not only materially cheaper, but he is also the more effective kicker. Kaeding has the worst leg in the league for kick offs and was a major reason why the Chargers had the worst modern day specials during 2010/2011. The ability to kick off is so important that the Pats pay their kicker $3 million a year because he is a touch back specialist. The Pats value everything via metrics and it says something that they would pay top dollar for a brilliant kick off guy.
In general the Chargers need some brainpower in their management. Spanos, AJ and Norv are way behind the NE’s and Sean Payton’s of the world with regard to position value, in game tactics and drafting. Too old school and set in their ways.
by DKNJ on Jan 19, 2012 12:21 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
It should be noted that Kaeding has been the kicker on the Chargers for quite some time, so if he “was a major reason why the Chargers had the worst modern day special teams during last season”. You would think that their specail teams would have sucked since 2004 insead of just last season.
by JeromeB on Jan 19, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Have a Rec
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
Richard Wade - "I feel like me from four years ago would punch present me in the face. I like to think that's because I've grown as a person."
by John Gennaro on Jan 19, 2012 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
I'd like to point out
That Kaeding had exactly 1 kick since the new special teams rules. Kinda hard to compare 2011 Novak with 2010 Kaeding for that reason along.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
Richard Wade - "I feel like me from four years ago would punch present me in the face. I like to think that's because I've grown as a person."
by John Gennaro on Jan 19, 2012 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
Kaeding has been
bad every year as a kick off guy. The will help him, but he will still be giving up a lot of field position on a league average kick off guy (i.e any advantage the Chargers get from the rule also applies to their opposition).
The stat guys and smart teams highly value big kick off guys. Paying $2 million for an awful one doesn’t seem like a good use of resources given the massive holes on D and on the O-line. Put the savings in a Gaither fund.
Anyone know if there is an opposite to "rec'd"?
The ability to kick off is so important that the Pats pay their kicker $3 million a year because he is a touch back specialist. The Pats value everything via metrics and it says something that they would pay top dollar for a brilliant kick off guy.
They pay him that because he’s a good placekicker, not just because of his touchbacks. There are plenty of guys who are much, much cheaper and could boom the ball out of the endzone everytime. Putting it between the uprights is the rarer skill, and its the skill that Kaeding is better at than Novak.
Also interesting that they Pats only got their current kicker because they refused to pay Vinateri high end kicker money even after all his great work for them. How’d that decision work out?
Kaeding has the worst leg in the league for kick offs and was a major reason why the Chargers had the worst modern day specials during 2010/2011.
As has already been said, he was the kicker since 2004 and they never had a season so bad. Hell, for most of that run they were pretty great at coverage. The ST struggles had a lot more to do with a ton of injuries, blocked punts, and the departure of Osgood, none of which was Kaeding’s fault. As the non-playoff bound Raiders can attest (thanks to Goodman), even the strongest leg doesn’t always force a touchback.
Disagree completely
one of the reasons the Pats cut Vinateri is that he lost a lot of leg strength. This isn’t conjecture….this stuff is tracked.
The average kick off was returned to the 32 yard line as compared to the average touchback. 12 yards of field position 4-7 times a game is extremely valuable.
Stat guys said that Billy Cundiff’s 2010 season was worth the value of the 7th best RB in the league.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/01/kicker-billy-cundiff-had-20-sacks-this.html
Kaeding's Touchback percentage
Has always been between 5-10%. He dipped a bit in 2010 as a result of a leg injury, and even with that most of the special teams problems that year occoured when Kaeding wasn’t even on the field.
I didn't realize Kaeding was out there blocking on punts
"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner
by Cake or Death on Jan 19, 2012 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe if he had been...
Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Jan 19, 2012 2:21 PM PST up reply actions
He has always been bad at kickoffs
and it manifested last year. Intuitive that a weak kick off guy is more apt to give up valuable field position and game changing returns. I do know that the “smart” teams around the league place great value and resources on kick offs.
I would guess that the Chargers have been given up field position every year during the Kaeding era versus the league average kicker. I do know that he has the amongst the lowest touchback %s year in and year out.
You would guess wrong
It is by no means a tell all stat, but if you look at the kick off return avg against a team here are some results from the past few years.
2011 with Novak – Chargers finished 25th in the NFL
2010 – 14th
2009 – 11th
2008 – 16th
2007 – 6th
Their special teams were one of the worst ever last season but it was a combination of quite a few things, many of which Kaeding had nothing to do with (blocked Punts, Punt returns). Also while the Chargers did give up a few costly kick off returns last season they still finished higher in the league standings of kick off return avg yards against then they did this season.
I think you are going to much on what you think or guess may have been the case in the past as opposed to what really was.
Bad data for 2010, 2009, 2008
Kaeding had the lowest touchback percentage in the league during 2010 and SD gave up 3 return touchdowns and had one guy tackled on the five. Football Outsiders had the SD kickoff coverage as by far the worst in the league during 2010. Is this really a shock….low touch back % + a slew of return TDs = bad kick off unit.
I don’t know where in the world it makes sense that they had the 14th best kickoff coverage during 2010. Fuzzy math.
Kaeding has a weak leg by any verifiable measure and the early returns during 2011 were not good. Kaeding had one kick off and gave up about 12% of the total kickoffs returned for TDs during this year.
You are spitting in the face of reason and data if you think that Kaeding is even a league average kickoff guy. Lost in my opinion.
I did not say that the Chargers had the 14th best kickoff coverage unit during the 2010 season.
Kick off returns for TD are far more a result of the coverage unit then they are the KIcker. In Kaedings first six years the Chargers had 2 kick offs returned for td, most seasons 0. I don’t think that means he was great at kicking off early in his career but the coverage was much better.
I have never thought that Kaeding is a great kick off guy. But he is well above average as a fiedl goal kicker and I think that he is more than capable of handling kick offs with a decent coverage unit.
Your error
was that you took the espn data as net average per kickoff return ATTEMPTED. This number excludes touchbacks which is why the ESPN stats had Baltimore as having the worst kickoff coverage and SD as middling. Obviously Cundiff had extreme value with 55% of his kicks as touchbacks.
Outsiders tracks this much better and has Kaeding as an awful kickoff guy. From what I see on the screen I don’t think this is up for debate.
http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/03/24/chargers-have-reason-to-celebrate-kickoff-changes
The link that you posted
suggests that the new kick off rule should help Kaeding due to his shorter kick offs. And that the Chargers had bad coverage units in 2010. I would agree with both points.
Kaeding averaged
63 yards a kickoff during 2010. That would put his average kick at the 2 yard line with the new rules. In my opinion this isn’t close to cutting it with the new rules.
I would also add that Kaeding kicks off a million times a season due to the Chargers prolific offense….his weakness will always be magnified on a good offensive team.
The decision on Kaeding will be the bell weather test whether the Chargers braintrust put any value on modern metrics. My guess is that they choose the comfy accurate guy over a cheaper and more effective one.
You bring up some valid questions
I would still like to see some rankings over the years by somebody like Football Outsiders or Advanced Stats that take into account the value of a kicker based on a combination of field goals and kick offs.
If they feel that Kaeding is the superior FG kicker then perhaps they should use a roster spot on a kickoff specialist. After all you did say that Cundiff had the value of the 7th best RB in the league so it wouldn’t be a wasted spot.
Does that include onside kicks?
What about penalties that adjust where he is kicking the ball from? Remember, these stats actually matter due to how often a kickoff happens per game.
by Ferguson1015 on Jan 20, 2012 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
Also
if Kaedings kickoff lands at the 7 in 2010, 22.2 return yards per attempt give an average of the 30 yard line as starting field position. If Cundiff’s kickoff land 6 yards deep in the end zone a 26 yard return equals an average starting position of the 20 yard line.
You need context to evaluate this. I am not even a Novak fan, but the Chargers would be nuts if they kept Kaeding w/o a kickoff specialist (which puts 2 roster spots and about 3 million in cap space into a kicker….may be worth it if you get a brilliant fg kicker and a lock down touchback guy)
What I would like to see
Is some numbers from one of the advanced stats sites ranking kickers value, both kick offs and field goals taken into consideration. Not just on 2010 but over his career with the Chargers. I am sure that those numbers are out there somewhere and I would enjoy checking them out if you have a link.
I did not say that the kick off coverage unit was ranked 14th, I said that they ranked 14th in kick off return avg yards against (and I did preface it by saying that it is by no means a tell all stat) it was just the only stat that I had access to at the time.
In my first post I said that I lean towards Kaeding but would like to see them both compete in camp for the job and I still think that is a pretty fair opinion. I think you are basing a lot on 2010, if there data out there for previous years it would be interesting to read.
This is tough
I think Kadeing deserves at least one more chance. Is there anyway we can keep Novak as a no.2 if Kaeding goes down again?
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by Jonathan Holmes on Jan 19, 2012 12:37 PM PST reply actions
If you are going to keep Kaeding
you would need to use a valuable roster spot on a kick off specialist. If the Chargers do this it should be reflected in Kaeding’s contract offer.
Any kicker can run into a hot year of field goal making. Kaeding has no chance of being an average kick off guy.
"any kicker can run into a hot year of field goal making"
Isn’t Kaeding the one who has a career FG percentage of 86%, since 2004? And isn’t Novak the one who just completed his first full season as an NFL kicker at FG percentage of 79%?
I was hoping to see how Kaeding did on kick-offs this season
of course he gets hurt on the 1st one of the season. I think if he can show in the preseason the ability to consistently kick it in to the end zone than it’s his job.
TBD
by IputtheYinTony on Jan 19, 2012 12:41 PM PST reply actions
I admit I voted for Novak
At first, just because I have not seen him blow three makeable kicks in a playoff game, but as I read through this thread I was reminded of how few touchbacks Kaeding got. The one KO he did this season got took to the house by Harvin. Put down for Novak.
North Texas REALLY needs a Rubio's franchise.
Harvin took that ball out from three yards deep in the endzone
by Cake or Death on Jan 19, 2012 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, he did, but how many KO's did we see around the league this year that were
in the stands, through the goal posts or completely out of the end zone? More than I have ever seen before due to the rule change and a lot of those were Novak’s.
North Texas REALLY needs a Rubio's franchise.
by SDNativeinTX on Jan 20, 2012 9:15 AM PST up reply actions
Right, but all I'm saying
is that Kaeding has always kicked to about the 3 yard line, and he rarely had kicks returned for TDs before 2010.
"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner
by Cake or Death on Jan 20, 2012 9:55 AM PST up reply actions
Didn't Novak miss a game winning field goal against the broncos
at least Kaeding is clutch in the regular season
by chargerclipperfan on Jan 19, 2012 1:58 PM PST up reply actions
On second thought....
Anyone that can pee into a Gatorade cup while the while the cameras are rolling gets my vote! That takes nerves of steel my friends!!!
If you don't consider the cap, Kaeding all the way. However, the cap is real and I'll take Novak.
Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
Today's daily link swayed me towards Kaeding
But with the cap as a factor, I would take Novak if that helped in the decision to retain Castillo.
by Lightning Hobo on Jan 19, 2012 3:22 PM PST up reply actions
Nope.
"second base is the bizness." -jbox
Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans
I can't remember anyone trading a "kicker plus1" for a first round pick
Has that ever happened? It seems like it would work out for us but kickers are too easy to find in middle rounds.
kaeding.
Novak started to look real shaky towards the end of the season.
Besides the only thing I didn’t like about kaeding was his leg strength, which isn’t that much of a problem now with the new kick off rules.
Gotta get to the playoffs first.
Whichever one is cut, there’s a good chance he will land in the AFC West. Way I see it, if Kaeding hadn’t got hurt, the Chargers could be playing this weekend. Novak did a really good job coming virtually out of nowhere, but he failed at the end of the season, instead of after the season, so my vote is Kaeding; but for 700K I’d keep them both just to avoid having to play against either of them. Of course, it’s not my money.
I voted for Kaeding
Simply because with him on the team, I think we have a better chance to make the playoffs. If we can get there, hopefully we don’t have to depend on him making a bunch of FG’s to win. That being said, if cap space is an issue, I’d be fine keeping Novak.
1 VOTE for Novak
Kaeding was always kicking it to the 3-9 yard line on kickoffs which would make his KO’s now about inside the goal line to the 5 range. Novak can consistently put it 5 yards + in the end zone. He even kicked a few out of the back of the end zone this year. Guys were returning kicks from mid end zone and deeper this year (not just Goodman) so giving that speedy guy a 5-10 yard boost on the return is not acceptable. I think Novak will only get better on field goals, now that he has a whole year of experience. I feel like we have seen the best Kaeding has to offer. I say go with Novak and spend that other 1.3 million on some 2 good special team gunners. It would help the punt game too.We didn’t know how good we had it wil Osgood covering punts/kicks. He was damn good.
Kaeding has played in 5 playoff games. He’s missed 7 field goals. How many more games must he lose to prove he has psychological issues in the playoffs? How many more years are they going to waste? You can’t get to the Super Bowl with a kicker who barely kicks 50% in the playoffs.
Strange how the article seems so pro Kaeding and ignores his true history. His performance has gotten worse in the playoffs over the years not better. Go ahead and look for yourselves. Each year it’s the same story that next year he will be better. Instead he’s gotten worse not better.
A small one, no less.
Bolts from the Blue // "At least when Wade is spewing vitriol he does so with an intellectual flair." - insanebolt21
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Jan 20, 2012 9:30 PM PST up reply actions
Ya that's kinda what I was driving at
If there’s one thing baseball has over football, its a lot more data to work out trends with.
Let both these guys kick until cut day
and then pick the one that gives you the most yards per dollar while adjusting out playoff choking and justin bieber hair. factor in peeing in a bottle as well
Winning
by Foilhat on Jan 20, 2012 10:07 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
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