Stacking up the Chargers' Wide Receivers

by jkvandal on Jan 18, 2012 9:00 AM PST in San Diego Chargers Team Analysis

So it's been 2 years since the Chargers have won the division (and made the playoffs). The team no longer needs to build to win in the playoffs, the team needs to get back to basics and build to win the division and just make the playoffs. So where to start?

The point of this column is going to be analyzing the Chargers roster using the assistance from the good people over at Football Outsiders to see how the Chargers roster stacks up to the other rosters in the division. I'll also take a look at the last two seasons to see if the Chargers are trending upward or downward in each category.

For today's edition, I'm going to start with the Wide Receivers...after the jump.

First, if you are unfamiliar with Football Outsiders and their ranking system with crazy terms like DYAR and DVOA, visit this page to get your learn on. If you are too lazy to click that link that I included to make it super easy for you, here's a short, severely oversimplified summary:

DVOA and DYAR are adjusted numbers according to the defense that your team is going up against. A 100-yard receiving game against the #32 pass defense will not count as much as a 100-yard game against the #1 pass defense. It is also adjusted for plays that contribute to your team winning.

Positive is good, negative is bad.

DYAR is essentially a value telling you how much better (in yards) a player is than their replacement. Here's a quote that explains DYAR in a nutshell:

When a player is removed from an offense, he is usually not replaced by a player of similar ability. Nearly every starting player in the NFL is a starter because he is better than the alternative...A player’s true value can then be measured by the level of performance he provides above that replacement level baseline, totaled over all of his run or pass attempts.

Now that we have that stuff out of the way...here's what my research uncovered.

	DYAR	DVOA	TD	Catch Rate	Fum
SD	230	23.17%	17	55.92%	1
KC	84.2	-6.56%	9	55.07%	1
OAK	87.7	2.13%	13	53.29%	3
DEN	6.2	-13.06%	19	41.33%	2

There should be no surprise that the Chargers have the best receiving corps in the AFC West. The Chargers do not have a single receiver with a negative DVOA on the season. That is something that no other AFC West team can claim.

In fact, if you believe in DYAR, you would be able to see that the Chargers WR corps is better than all of the other WR’s in the AFC West COMBINED!

Taking at look at each team’s number one WR, the numbers fall out as below:

Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Fumbles
V.Jackson	SD	268	16.70%	115	1106	9	52%	0
D.Bowe	KC	149	0.50%	142	1159	5	57%	1
D.Heyward-Bey	OAK	145	3.60%	115	975	4	56%	1
D.Thomas	DEN	42	-4.90%	70	551	4	46%	0

Clearly Vincent Jackson is the best number one receiver in the AFC West according to Football Outsiders. However, Football Outsiders doesn’t even believe Jackson is the best WR on the team, that distinction goes to someone else:

Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Fumbles
M.Floyd	SD	353	51.90%	70	856	5	61%	0

Not only is Malcom Floyd the best WR on the team as far as DYAR and DVOA, he ranks towards the top of the league in both categories as well:

Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Fumbles
C.Johnson	DET	586	33.20%	158	1680	16	61%	1
J.Nelson	GB	530	54.10%	96	1263	15	71%	0
W.Welker	NE	475	22.20%	173	1569	9	71%	0
V.Cruz	NYG	468	33.30%	129	1536	9	64%	1
M.Wallace	PIT	410	32.20%	114	1193	8	63%	1
M.Colston	NO	403	35.40%	107	1143	8	75%	1
M.Floyd	SD	353	51.90%	70	856	5	61%	0

Floyd ranks second in the league in DVOA and seventh in the league in DYAR. Now if only we could get a full season out of him...

Here are the numbers for the Chargers roster (only the top 4 WR qualified for DVOA ratings):

Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Fumbles
M.Floyd	SD	353	51.90%	70	856	5	61%	0
V.Jackson	SD	268	16.70%	115	1106	9	52%	0
P.Crayton	SD	60	9.30%	34	248	1	68%	1
V.Brown	SD	50	3.30%	40	329	2	48%	0

There is no doubt that Floyd and Jackson both benefit from the existence of the other, as well as both players benefiting from the presence of Antonio Gates as well as the guy throwing them the ball, even if he had an off year. Additionally, Norv offense and his preference to throw the ball deep helps boost the numbers for these guys with the explosive plays that they make for this offense. I would have liked to see what these numbers would have looked like if both guys had been healthy all season.

I was surprised to see that Crayton has better numbers for both DVOA and DYAR than Vincent Brown despite having less yards, touchdowns, and more fumbles. I was also surprised to see Brown’s catch rate below 50%. Clearly catch rate is a large factor in a receivers’ value with Football Outsiders, as it should be. After all, a receiver can’t gain you any yardage if he can’t catch the ball reliably.

It’s not a reach to say that the Chargers have the best WR’s in the AFC West, and that is when Rivers looked quite mediocre at times this past season. The Wide Receiver position is undoubtedly a strength on this team, and Jackson needs to be locked up long term to keep it that way.

What do you think? Feel free to comment below.

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Comments

Jackson has also dropped a few balls he should have caught, unlike Floyd who dropped ONE

Also, I remember one game where V Brown had like 7 passes thrown his way but he only caught like 2, so that could be something. Still, a replacement receiver who’s big should be on the team since Floyd’s health isn’t reliable and Jackson may not accept the contracts he’s offered. Also: Depth. Crayton’s value is well below what it was last year.

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say sh-- or fu-- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
Bolts from the Blue
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by Superduperboltman on Jan 18, 2012 9:08 AM PST reply actions

Dropped Balls

V Jackson dropped a few passes because he was taking double coverage. Did you for get about the diving catch against Miami? V Jax makes the catches. V Brown was a rookie coming off of a hamstring injury. All recievers drop passes. It will happen. Everybody forgets these rookies did not get a full training camp. Brown is going to be someone to watch. The kid can flat out play. For every bad thing your so worried about you have forgotten about the great catches they made. Yes I agree Crayton done. That will be addressed.

by JohnAL on Jan 18, 2012 10:41 AM PST up reply actions

For every amazing catch he made, he had a silly drop.

He had 8 dropped passes this year. More than floyd, gates, brown and crayton combined.

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say sh-- or fu-- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
Bolts from the Blue
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by Superduperboltman on Jan 18, 2012 11:02 AM PST up reply actions

He also played every week.

by JeromeB on Jan 18, 2012 12:01 PM PST up reply actions

averages still go against him

floyd: 1 drop over 12 games
vjax: 1 drop every 2 games
vb: 1 drop every 2.2 games
although drops per pass would be more accurate, vjax is still inferior.

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say sh-- or fu-- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
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by Superduperboltman on Jan 18, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions

I will take VJ of Floyd any time

Floyd is 30 and has yet to prove that he can stay on the field and contribute week to week. He did have better FO numbers than VJ this season, here is a look at their numbers their past two full seasons played:
VJ – DYAR 448, 369, DVOA 38.7, 32.9 Catch Rate 63, 59
MF – DYAR 128, 219, DVOA 9.1, 23.2, Catch Rate 48, 59
I like both WRs but year after year VJ has outperformed Floyd.

I would love to see both WRs back next year and I think it is a real possiblity. Most thought that MF would get some offers last off season but he ended up back here, maybe it can happen again.

by JeromeB on Jan 18, 2012 1:05 PM PST up reply actions

Not just that

It wasn’t so much his drops that drawed my ire, but his lack of technique, or more precisely effort at the point of attack. He would have superior position on a smaller DB a number of times, but instead of attacking the ball and boxing out like Antonio Gates does, from what I remember, Vincent Jackson does this…c-shaped body maneuver attempting to catch it in the cavity his stomach creates. Meanwhile, the defender jumps up and taps it out of the way. Also, there was that ball he lost in the lights that one time that created a turnover…
All this being said, no doubt VJax is a superior athlete, he just seemed mentally flummoxed(?) this year.

by Falawful on Jan 18, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions

I HATE

the body-catches! A tall guy with those sort of hands needs to snatch the ball out of the air. It’s never kosher to call out someone’s effort (because there’s technically “no way to know”), but his sure seemed lack-luster this year (not going up for catches, not willing to “be the DB” and defend a poorly thrown pass so that a defender doesn’t grab it. Not that his effort is so poor that it defines him, but given his physical abilities it’s a shame he’s not doing more to hit his potential (I believe it was last year he said he can be more than a just a deep-threat specialist…but now it doesn’t seem to be the case (well, it doesn’t help he’s not too great after the catch & it’s usually those guys who are able to get open on the short routes quickly)

Floyd seems to give it his all every time the ball is thrown his way. He truly attacks the ball. Like you said in your lower post, he may not be able to get much separation (anywhere, but especially on short stuff), but as a #2/compliment who “specializes” on stuff 10yds (or 15) past the LOS, he’s probably the best in the league.

by Uppercut on Jan 18, 2012 5:14 PM PST up reply actions

THIS

body catches for guys that claim to be #1 WR’s at the NFL level are just unacceptable and lazy.

by jkvandal on Jan 18, 2012 6:54 PM PST up reply actions

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scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 18, 2012 8:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

This is what I think of every single time.

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by Richard Wade on Jan 19, 2012 8:30 AM PST up reply actions

whoa there ex elite nfl receiver

VJ is awesome…you’re going in on him too hard man,lazy and unacceptable? C’mon bro,he can’t have a bad game? Geez,hard to please much?….I get you though,I don’t really dig the way Ryan Mathews plays so I guess your criticism of VJ isn’t so bad considering the way I talk about the RB.

by Gorditoe1 on Jan 19, 2012 12:29 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions

VJ is not the only guy that is guilty of this

so I’m not just coming down on him. It’s just frustrating because Jackson has such good hands when he attacks the ball out in front of his body, and if my memory serves correctly, most (if not all) of his drops came when he was trying to trap the ball up against his pads instead of attacking it.

by jkvandal on Jan 19, 2012 4:28 PM PST up reply actions

I will say that VJax does not have the catching style that most elite WR's have

he likes to trap the ball between his hands and his chest pad too often instead of catching it with his hands out in front of him. He catches it with his hands well when the ball is over his head, but when it’s anywhere below that he traps it, which leads to a lot of drops.

by jkvandal on Jan 18, 2012 6:42 PM PST up reply actions

Also, according to FO

Floyd had the second highest DVOA (rate stat, that means the more you give that player a chance, the better their DYAR will be in theory) this year in the history of DVOA’s stat taking. The number one? This year’s Jordy Nelson. So basically Floyd would have had the best “per catch” season in the history of DVOA’s metrics if J. Nelson didn’t also have an amazing year.

note: DVOA metrics only go back to ’91 so the great Chargers and 49ers receivers are not listed using their metrics

by Ferguson1015 on Jan 18, 2012 9:23 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

Floyd is a monster...(when healthy)

Honestly, his catches remind me of the stuff Bronco’s fans rave about with Brandon Lloyd…except he does them routinely. And I mean, you have to consider that he’s frequently hurt yet he still allows himself to be thrown into positions where he can get injured…that’s dedication, and a bit of stupidity I guess. Also, he seems like an earnestly good guy from interviews.
My only knock against him is that he obviously lacks upper body strength and his moves off the line of scrimmage frequently don’t work to generate separation.

by Falawful on Jan 18, 2012 12:30 PM PST up reply actions

Bingo

This offense borders on unstoppable when Jackson, Gates, and Floyd are healthy…I like Vincent Brown too but he just doesnt have the same type of abilities to stretch the field that Floyd does, so the team needs a guy that can fill Floyd’s role when he is down. Ajirotutu used to fill that role, the team needs another guy to cover themselves in case Floyd goes down again for a few games, which history tells us will happen.

by jkvandal on Jan 18, 2012 6:45 PM PST up reply actions

Also

DVOA is taken on a per-play basis. There are more points awarded if the play results in a first down (and even more if it is a touchdown). “Garbage time” stats get less weight than when the game is close. Fumbles are penalized.

Also something else that FO notes is that they have not been able to separate Receiver numbers from Quarterback numbers. So if a Quarterback throws the ball poorly (Tebow, some might say Cassel) it would bring down the production of the receivers as well.

The reason why Floyd has the second most DVOA and only the 7th best DYAR is because he wasn’t targeted enough (only 70 times, look at those other guys above him). If he had been targeted more and kept up the same production he would have had a ridiculously high DYAR as well.

by Ferguson1015 on Jan 18, 2012 9:32 AM PST reply actions

Part of the reason he wasn't targeted a ton

was that he had health issues (again). So the DVOA and DYAR numbers confirm that he was a playmaker when he was on the field, and could have been one of the top in the league if he had been on the field more…which is something us Charger fans have always known about that guy.

There is no doubting that Rivers have a large amount of confidence in Floyd (and Jackson) and will often throw up the ball to them even when they are covered.

by jkvandal on Jan 18, 2012 6:48 PM PST up reply actions

He was top 4 in the AFC even with missing time.

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by Richard Wade on Jan 18, 2012 7:37 PM PST up reply actions

I know, imagine where he would have been if he played all 16 games

by jkvandal on Jan 19, 2012 4:29 PM PST up reply actions

I guess my point was that he already was one of the top in the league. You said he could have been if he'd stayed healthy.

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by Richard Wade on Jan 19, 2012 7:48 PM PST up reply actions

If I recall correctly

Floyd had some ridiculously high first down rate this year. Like he had only 1 catch all year that wasn’t converted for first down, which translates to a huge DVOA. That’s amazing of course, but its also a reflection of he fact that he missed time and wasn’t targeted as much as Jackson.

by CABurrito on Jan 18, 2012 10:08 AM PST reply actions

he had I believe only one pass that didn't get a first down.

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say sh-- or fu-- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
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by Superduperboltman on Jan 18, 2012 10:58 AM PST up reply actions

Vincent Brown will make a huge leap next year...

Given an offseason of OCS’s and training camp, he will far surpass Craytons numbers next year. I suspect his catch rate will dramatically improve with a better understanding of the offense and where he is supposed to be on any given play. Looking forward to the strides he will make next year.

As for Jackson, he need’s to be retained. However if he cannot be retained I would hope Colston is a target in FA.

by Fouts of Rage! on Jan 18, 2012 11:04 AM PST reply actions

I was impressed with Brown

I still think Chargers should find another big target in the 2nd or 3rd rd if there’s someone worthy of course. I don’t think Brees would let Colston hit free agency.

by john1 on Jan 18, 2012 11:38 AM PST up reply actions

I was impressed with Brown as well

but he doesn’t fill the same role and Floyd or VJ. I see him as the slot receiver that this team has been looking for since drafting Buster Davis. He can do more than slot receiver, but I think that is where he is ideal in this offense. In 11 personnel, this offense would be unstoppable with VJ, Floyd, Brown, and Gates on the field…as well as Mathews in the backfield. That personnel grouping attacks every level of the defense and Philip Rivers and Norv Turner are experienced enough to identify where the weakness in the defense is and attack it.

by jkvandal on Jan 18, 2012 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

Dont fix whats not broke

Keep our receiving core intact the only liability we have is Crayton, he is a bum receiver and also a bum PR guy. Did u c how many mistakes he made on special teams?. The lack of production we had on special teams was crazy. VBrown should stay in the slot. We ben missn a receiver that can go across the middle n be more effective with underneath routes, we just need to replace Crayton.

Lil'Terry

by Lil'Terry on Jan 19, 2012 7:13 AM PST via Android app up reply actions

Agreed

We should get someone to replace him at WR and as a returner

by chargerclipperfan on Jan 19, 2012 8:44 AM PST up reply actions

The best addition to the WR core

would be to retain Jared Gaither! Honestly, he looked better than McNeill between the two of them at LT…And his run-blocking was pretty good if I remember correctly.

by Falawful on Jan 18, 2012 12:38 PM PST reply actions

Better than McNeill?

That’s hard to say, but he did look pretty damn good…and much better than most expected. He is a much better swing tackle than Dombrowski, meaning he can fill in at RT or LT. If McNeill is going to stick around next season, his injury issues have shown that the team needs a reliable backup and Gaither would be mandatory to sign as the swing tackle.

by jkvandal on Jan 18, 2012 6:53 PM PST up reply actions

Well, this is just giving it the old eyeball test.

Gaither’s composite run blocking and pass blocking just looked like it left Rivers more comfortable than McNeill. I mean, Gaither is a mobile mountain. He would pancake speed rushers so Rivers could really stand and deliver with his strikes when he was in. Yeah, McNeill looked like he pass protected, but he didn’t dominate defenders like I saw Gaither doing. Gaither’s play looked effortless out there.

Not many facts going into this(other than the W-L turn about and the loosely recalled graphs from Beowulf or whatever his handle is), but I think everyone can agree that what Gaither did with such short notice was amazing, and if they retained him, his chemistry could only improve.

by Falawful on Jan 18, 2012 9:46 PM PST up reply actions

Absolutely

I think the mid-season acquisition of Gaither saved both Turner and Smith’s jobs

by jkvandal on Jan 19, 2012 4:31 PM PST up reply actions

He could be the biggest improvement to the passing game overall

He played lights out when he came in. I would love to see them sign Gaither and put him in at LT, and move McNeill to RT. Clary as a backup tackle and the running game and passsing game get better. They need to sign VJ to a long term deal. Pay the man.

by glamisdave on Jan 18, 2012 10:25 PM PST up reply actions

There's only so much cap room to go around.

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by Richard Wade on Jan 18, 2012 10:48 PM PST up reply actions

Mmm, right, the money issue.

I don’t really look into the finance issues, but if they released Dielman and McNeill, retirement wise for the former, would that free up enough payroll to land Gaither? I think with that they’d also draft an OG early, but who knows. Greene isn’t bad. The line was killing it in the final stretch last year. Vasquez man, what a showing he had last year. And Clary is honestly fine at RT. If money has to be saved, let the man keep his job. Who knows though what’ll happen with the team

by Falawful on Jan 18, 2012 11:05 PM PST up reply actions

There is no doubt...

…that the Bolts’ receivers are the best in the AFC West, and (arguably) one of the best, as a group, in the league. I agree that while VJax has more natural ability than Floyd, #80 is the consummate professional who uses his assets (size, hands) to their fullest potential. Floyd is the poor man’s Calvin Johnson. He will probably never garner the accolades of some of the better receivers in the league, but he is the perfect compliment to Jackson and Gates, and with a little more consistency from the QB position could post even better numbers than he has in the past.

by charger19 on Jan 18, 2012 8:50 PM PST reply actions

I like Floyd, but a poor man's Calvin Johnson?

I can’t agree with that, Floyd is too one-dimensional to garner that kind of praise. Everyone tries to bin receivers together, but Floyd really is just Malcom Floyd. And the qb position has been pretty consistent…except for this year(I know that’s ironic).
I think they need to establish an attack around the 0-10 yard gainer area. They have plenty of big time assets to attack down the field, but their list of short range weapons is not that impressive. I’ve always been a proponent of adding another Sproles-ian kind of player, who’d match up well with middle linebackers, really what Gates brought back to the table when he came back from injury. I also think the running backs should maybe be used more aggressively in the pass offense instead of just bubble screens, wheel routes, or flats.

by Falawful on Jan 18, 2012 9:53 PM PST up reply actions

a VERY poor man's Calvin Johnson?

Ok, so perhaps I am being somewhat effusive with my praise of Floyd, but I do feel that he is one of the more underrated receivers in the league. Or perhaps it’s because we’re both Wyoming alums :)

And I agree that there is a need for a possession-type receiver who can move the chains when needed, but I don’t see that happening any time soon. It seems that possession receivers are a dying breed. Everyone wants to throw the ball 20 or 30 yards down the field on every pass play. Maybe this is a role Brown can fill?

by charger19 on Jan 18, 2012 10:13 PM PST up reply actions

Sort of

Vincent Brown is a really good receiver who can do that, but I’m thinking of a different kind of tool. Because inevitably Vincent Brown lines up as a slot or x,y(1 or 2) receiver so he’ll be picked up by DBs.

It’s a big part of any offense’s game plan is a player who plays off a MLB picking them up in man-coverage. Certainly why Antonio Gates is so successful is he routinely plays linebackers with his little pivot route. It’s also why Sproles is killing it at NO. I think that’s another evolution of offense will be really using RBs or TEs even better for actual route running instead of dump-off passing.

As for Vincent Brown, I think he’s a really good receiver at the slot…I’ll lump receivers here…I see a Greg Jennings like ability to play in him…maybe. Same height, both have good hands, similarly good but not great speed. We’ll see.

by Falawful on Jan 18, 2012 11:01 PM PST up reply actions