2011 NFL Power Rankings From Around the Web: Week 4

Steve Gregory to Jackie Battle: "Nice, man. You work out?"

This week finds the Chargers at 2-1. But as you'll see in a moment, that's not really reason to celebrate in San Diego just yet. We have a long season ahead of us, and a team that doesn't quite have it all together yet.

With two powerhouses losing this week — the Jets and Patriots — their stock has fallen this week, but only slightly. However, their opponents — Oakland and Buffalo, respectively — have made some waves and are climbing the rankings.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

The loss of Antonio Gates was detrimental for the Chargers, as they never looked to be in sync against the Chiefs. Any win in September is big for the Chargers. RB Ryan Mathews is beginning to look like he was worth trading up for in 2010.

Sports Illustrated

Philip Rivers has always trusted his right arm implicitly, but it's starting to betray him at times. Rivers has thrown two interceptions in each of his three games this season, and that's the kind of career first the Chargers could live without. Rivers has never topped 15 picks in his six seasons as the starter in San Diego, but he's well on this way to doing so. With six interceptions already, he only needs 10 more in the coming 13 games to go where he's never gone before.

ProFootballTalk

A winning record for the month of September should get these guys some sort of a commemorative paperweight.

A few surprises await you, after the jump

Subjective Average

  Subjective
  ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation   Average   Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Saints 2 2 8 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.900   1.758
Ravens 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 3.900   0.831
Patriots 3 7 4 3 3 6 5 2 2 5 4.000   1.613
Lions 4 6 2 5 5 3 3 6 7 8 4.900   1.814
Bills 6 8 3 8 7 5 6 9 8 7 6.700   1.676
Steelers 10 4 7 12 8 8 7 10 6 4 7.600   2.458
Jets 7 10 11 7 6 11 10 5 5 6 7.800   2.315
Chargers 9 5 6 9 10 7 8 8 14 12 8.800   2.561
Texans 8 9 12 6 9 14 9 7 10 10 9.400   2.200
Buccaneers 14 11 15 10 15 9 11 15 9 11 12.000   2.366
Cowboys 11 12 9 15 12 13 13 12 15 9 12.100   1.972
Raiders 13 17 10 11 11 10 12 16 11 15 12.600   2.417
Giants 12 15 14 16 14 12 14 11 16 14 13.800   1.600
Redskins 16 13 13 17 13 18 15 13 17 13 14.800   1.939
Falcons 19 14 16 14 18 16 16 17 13 16 15.900   1.758
Eagles 17 16 17 18 16 21 17 14 12 17 16.500   2.247
Titans 15 19 19 13 19 20 18 20 18 18 17.900   2.119
Bears 18 18 20 19 17 15 19 19 19 21 18.500   1.565
49ers 20 20 21 22 20 17 20 18 23 20 20.100   1.640
Browns 21 21 18 20 21 26 21 21 20 19 20.800   1.990
Panthers 22 23 22 21 23 19 22 23 28 24 22.700   2.193
Cardinals 23 22 24 23 22 22 23 22 26 23 23.000   1.183
Broncos 26 26 26 24 25 24 24 24 24 27 25.000   1.095
Bengals 27 24 27 28 28 25 26 25 22 25 25.700   1.792
Jaguars 25 31 25 27 24 23 25 26 29 22 25.700   2.571
Seahawks 24 25 23 30 27 27 29 27 31 26 26.900   2.427
Rams 31 27 28 26 26 30 27 28 25 28 27.600   1.744
Vikings 28 30 31 25 29 28 30 31 21 32 28.500   3.139
Colts 30 29 30 29 31 29 28 29 27 29 29.100   1.044
Dolphins 29 28 29 31 30 31 31 30 30 31 30.000   1.000
Chiefs 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 30 31.800   0.600

 

Observations:

  • The Chargers moved up this week, albeit only slightly (8.800 avg this week vs 8.909 last week)
  • Philadelphia is on a free-fall — 7.000 all the way down to 16.500 — "Dream Team", anyone?
  • Detroit and Buffalo are really making a statement early, and people are taking notice.
  • The Chiefs were going to be the unanimous number-32 team, until Joel Thorman — the Chiefs homer that he is — had to go and rank them 30th. #MockAnger
  • It looks like playing Miami this week won't be too different from playing the Chiefs last week

 

Subjective Standard Deviation

  Subjective
  ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation   Average   Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Chiefs 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 30 31.800   0.600
Ravens 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 3.900   0.831
Dolphins 29 28 29 31 30 31 31 30 30 31 30.000   1.000
Colts 30 29 30 29 31 29 28 29 27 29 29.100   1.044
Broncos 26 26 26 24 25 24 24 24 24 27 25.000   1.095
Cardinals 23 22 24 23 22 22 23 22 26 23 23.000   1.183
Bears 18 18 20 19 17 15 19 19 19 21 18.500   1.565
Giants 12 15 14 16 14 12 14 11 16 14 13.800   1.600
Patriots 3 7 4 3 3 6 5 2 2 5 4.000   1.613
49ers 20 20 21 22 20 17 20 18 23 20 20.100   1.640
Bills 6 8 3 8 7 5 6 9 8 7 6.700   1.676
Rams 31 27 28 26 26 30 27 28 25 28 27.600   1.744
Falcons 19 14 16 14 18 16 16 17 13 16 15.900   1.758
Saints 2 2 8 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2.900   1.758
Bengals 27 24 27 28 28 25 26 25 22 25 25.700   1.792
Lions 4 6 2 5 5 3 3 6 7 8 4.900   1.814
Redskins 16 13 13 17 13 18 15 13 17 13 14.800   1.939
Cowboys 11 12 9 15 12 13 13 12 15 9 12.100   1.972
Browns 21 21 18 20 21 26 21 21 20 19 20.800   1.990
Titans 15 19 19 13 19 20 18 20 18 18 17.900   2.119
Panthers 22 23 22 21 23 19 22 23 28 24 22.700   2.193
Texans 8 9 12 6 9 14 9 7 10 10 9.400   2.200
Eagles 17 16 17 18 16 21 17 14 12 17 16.500   2.247
Jets 7 10 11 7 6 11 10 5 5 6 7.800   2.315
Buccaneers 14 11 15 10 15 9 11 15 9 11 12.000   2.366
Raiders 13 17 10 11 11 10 12 16 11 15 12.600   2.417
Seahawks 24 25 23 30 27 27 29 27 31 26 26.900   2.427
Steelers 10 4 7 12 8 8 7 10 6 4 7.600   2.458
Chargers 9 5 6 9 10 7 8 8 14 12 8.800   2.561
Jaguars 25 31 25 27 24 23 25 26 29 22 25.700   2.571
Vikings 28 30 31 25 29 28 30 31 21 32 28.500   3.139

 

Observations:

  • Green Bay: your unanimous best team right now
  • Kansas City was almost unanimously the worst team as well
  • It's interesting how teams in the bottom half of the rankings are ranked more consistently across the board. Guess it's easier to pick out who's bad than who's good.
  • The Chargers are definitely all over the board. Many see this as a good team, while others see it as a flawed 2-1 team.
  • There are people that just want to belive in the Vikings. Others, not so much.

 

Objective Average

  Objective
  Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin   Average   Standard Deviation
Patriots 1 3 2   2.000   0.817
Packers 6 1 1 2.667   2.357
Jets 3 6 4 4.333   1.247
Bills 5 4 6 5.000   0.817
Ravens 2 11 5 6.000   3.742
Saints 10 5 3 6.000   2.944
Lions 9 2 10 7.000   3.559
Steelers 4 10 8 7.333   2.494
Giants 7 12 12 10.333   2.357
Raiders 17 7 9 11.000   4.321
Texans 8 18 11 12.333   4.190
Cowboys 23 8 7 12.667   7.318
Chargers 13 16 16 15.000   1.414
Titans 14 19 13 15.333   2.625
Falcons 12 15 20 15.667   3.300
Redskins 19 14 15 16.000   2.160
Buccaneers 22 9 17 16.000   5.354
Eagles 11 20 19 16.667   4.028
49ers 15 17 18 16.667   1.247
Bears 24 13 14 17.000   4.967
Vikings 16 21 22 19.667   2.625
Bengals 18 24 21 21.000   2.450
Browns 20 25 29 24.667   3.682
Jaguars 27 23 24 24.667   1.700
Panthers 26 26 26 26.000   0.000
Dolphins 21 30 28 26.333   3.859
Cardinals 25 28 27 26.667   1.247
Broncos 28 29 23 26.667   2.625
Seahawks 30 22 30 27.333   3.771
Colts 29 31 25 28.333   2.494
Chiefs 32 27 31 30.000   2.160
Rams 31 32 32 31.667   0.471

 

Observations:

  • Football Outsiders aren't as high on the Packers as literally everyone else.
  • Wow, the Chargers and Titans have nearly the same Objective Average. Ouch.
  • After a ton of pre-season hype about Sam Bradford and the Rams, it turns out they're not that great - at all.
  • Yup, the Chiefs and Dolphins are playing that poorly.

 

Objective Standard Deviation

  Objective
  Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin   Average   Standard Deviation
Panthers 26 26 26   26.000   0.000
Rams 31 32 32 31.667   0.471
Bills 5 4 6 5.000   0.817
Patriots 1 3 2 2.000   0.817
Jets 3 6 4 4.333   1.247
Cardinals 25 28 27 26.667   1.247
49ers 15 17 18 16.667   1.247
Chargers 13 16 16 15.000   1.414
Jaguars 27 23 24 24.667   1.700
Redskins 19 14 15 16.000   2.160
Chiefs 32 27 31 30.000   2.160
Giants 7 12 12 10.333   2.357
Packers 6 1 1 2.667   2.357
Bengals 18 24 21 21.000   2.450
Steelers 4 10 8 7.333   2.494
Colts 29 31 25 28.333   2.494
Vikings 16 21 22 19.667   2.625
Broncos 28 29 23 26.667   2.625
Titans 14 19 13 15.333   2.625
Saints 10 5 3 6.000   2.944
Falcons 12 15 20 15.667   3.300
Lions 9 2 10 7.000   3.559
Browns 20 25 29 24.667   3.682
Ravens 2 11 5 6.000   3.742
Seahawks 30 22 30 27.333   3.771
Dolphins 21 30 28 26.333   3.859
Eagles 11 20 19 16.667   4.028
Texans 8 18 11 12.333   4.190
Raiders 17 7 9 11.000   4.321
Bears 24 13 14 17.000   4.967
Buccaneers 22 9 17 16.000   5.354
Cowboys 23 8 7 12.667   7.318

 

Observations:

  • I always find it interesting when a team has similar — or the same — rankings that isn't #1 or #32. So with the Panthers having a 26th ranking across the board, I get excited. The team is not playing very well, and don't let Cam Newton's flashy numbers fool you, one person a team does not make.
  • The Chargers are towards the middle of the pack. They're playing like 12th-ranked team.

 

Overall Average

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Packers 1.000 2.667   1.833   1.332   1.667
Patriots 4.000 2.000 3.000   1.692   -2.000
Saints 2.900 6.000 4.450   2.466   3.100
Ravens 3.900 6.000 4.950   2.132   2.100
Bills 6.700 5.000 5.850   1.682   -1.700
Lions 4.900 7.000 5.950   2.497   2.100
Jets 7.800 4.333 6.067   2.572   -3.467
Steelers 7.600 7.333 7.467   2.469   -0.267
Texans 9.400 12.333 10.867   3.050   2.933
Raiders 12.600 11.000 11.800   3.042   -1.600
Chargers 8.800 15.000 11.900   3.512   6.200
Giants 13.800 10.333 12.067   2.321   -3.467
Cowboys 12.100 12.667 12.383   3.925   0.567
Buccaneers 12.000 16.000 14.000   3.710   4.000
Redskins 14.800 16.000 15.400   2.055   1.200
Falcons 15.900 15.667 15.783   2.214   -0.233
Eagles 16.500 16.667 16.583   2.763   0.167
Titans 17.900 15.333 16.617   2.493   -2.567
Bears 18.500 17.000 17.750   2.824   -1.500
49ers 20.100 16.667 18.383   2.126   -3.433
Browns 20.800 24.667 22.733   2.971   3.867
Bengals 25.700 21.000 23.350   2.788   -4.700
Vikings 28.500 19.667 24.083   4.798   -8.833
Panthers 22.700 26.000 24.350   2.373   3.300
Cardinals 23.000 26.667 24.833   1.955   3.667
Jaguars 25.700 24.667 25.183   2.437   -1.033
Broncos 25.000 26.667 25.833   1.734   1.667
Seahawks 26.900 27.333 27.117   2.801   0.433
Dolphins 30.000 26.333 28.167   2.567   -3.667
Colts 29.100 28.333 28.717   1.542   -0.767
Rams 27.600 31.667 29.633   2.308   4.067
Chiefs 31.800 30.000 30.900   1.389   -1.800

 

Observations:

  • Packers are still on top. Chiefs still on bottom.
  • The Chargers are now no longer the top team in the AFC West; that distinction goes to the Oakland Raiders (barely).
  • Philadelphia and Atlanta — two teams pundits were hot on to start the season — have faultered quite a bit out of the gate.

 

Overall Standard Deviation

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Dolphins 30.000 28.667   29.333   1.136   -1.333
Chiefs 31.800 30.000 30.900   1.389   -1.800
Giants 13.800 12.667 13.233   1.550   -1.133
Packers 1.000 3.000 2.000   1.599   2.000
Bills 6.700 5.333 6.017   1.643   -1.367
Broncos 25.000 25.000 25.000   1.664   0.000
Patriots 4.000 2.000 3.000   1.692   -2.000
Redskins 14.800 14.000 14.400   1.778   -0.800
Colts 29.100 27.000 28.050   1.862   -2.100
Falcons 15.900 17.667 16.783   1.976   1.767
Ravens 3.900 8.000 5.950   2.214   4.100
Rams 27.600 31.333 29.467   2.240   3.733
Panthers 22.700 26.000 24.350   2.373   3.300
Lions 4.900 4.667 4.783   2.413   -0.233
Saints 2.900 6.000 4.450   2.466   3.100
Jets 7.800 4.333 6.067   2.572   -3.467
Jaguars 25.700 25.333 25.517   2.588   -0.367
Eagles 16.500 17.000 16.750   2.618   0.500
Cardinals 23.000 24.000 23.500   2.636   1.000
Bears 18.500 17.000 17.750   2.824   -1.500
Raiders 12.600 10.333 11.467   2.841   -2.267
49ers 20.100 15.333 17.717   2.882   -4.767
Seahawks 26.900 27.667 27.283   2.895   0.767
Browns 20.800 24.667 22.733   2.971   3.867
Cowboys 12.100 11.333 11.717   3.149   -0.767
Texans 9.400 11.000 10.200   3.423   1.600
Buccaneers 12.000 16.000 14.000   3.710   4.000
Titans 17.900 12.333 15.117   4.068   -5.567
Steelers 7.600 13.000 10.300   4.167   5.400
Bengals 25.700 18.000 21.850   4.763   -7.700
Vikings 28.500 19.667 24.083   4.798   -8.833
Chargers 8.800 19.667 14.233   5.676   10.867

 

Observations:

  • This is now my third season doing these rankings, and in each season, the Chargers have almost always been one the more inconsistently-ranked teams. So why should this year be any different? (It's not)
  • Green Bay is the most consistently-ranked team, as the best team in the NFL right now. Kansas City is close behind as the worst, with the Colts next, as also terrible.
  • Buffalo is that good, it's not a fluke.

 

Difference in Averages

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Chargers 8.800 15.000   11.900   3.512   6.200
Rams 27.600 31.667 29.633   2.308   4.067
Buccaneers 12.000 16.000 14.000   3.710   4.000
Browns 20.800 24.667 22.733   2.971   3.867
Cardinals 23.000 26.667 24.833   1.955   3.667
Panthers 22.700 26.000 24.350   2.373   3.300
Saints 2.900 6.000 4.450   2.466   3.100
Texans 9.400 12.333 10.867   3.050   2.933
Ravens 3.900 6.000 4.950   2.132   2.100
Lions 4.900 7.000 5.950   2.497   2.100
Broncos 25.000 26.667 25.833   1.734   1.667
Packers 1.000 2.667 1.833   1.332   1.667
Redskins 14.800 16.000 15.400   2.055   1.200
Cowboys 12.100 12.667 12.383   3.925   0.567
Seahawks 26.900 27.333 27.117   2.801   0.433
Eagles 16.500 16.667 16.583   2.763   0.167
Falcons 15.900 15.667 15.783   2.214   -0.233
Steelers 7.600 7.333 7.467   2.469   -0.267
Colts 29.100 28.333 28.717   1.542   -0.767
Jaguars 25.700 24.667 25.183   2.437   -1.033
Bears 18.500 17.000 17.750   2.824   -1.500
Raiders 12.600 11.000 11.800   3.042   -1.600
Bills 6.700 5.000 5.850   1.682   -1.700
Chiefs 31.800 30.000 30.900   1.389   -1.800
Patriots 4.000 2.000 3.000   1.692   -2.000
Titans 17.900 15.333 16.617   2.493   -2.567
49ers 20.100 16.667 18.383   2.126   -3.433
Giants 13.800 10.333 12.067   2.321   -3.467
Jets 7.800 4.333 6.067   2.572   -3.467
Dolphins 30.000 26.333 28.167   2.567   -3.667
Bengals 25.700 21.000 23.350   2.788   -4.700
Vikings 28.500 19.667 24.083   4.798   -8.833

 

Observations:

  • Sigh … I've said it before for other teams, but this week the distinction of "Most Overrated Team" goes to the Chargers, by a landslide. Their subjective ranking puts them over 6 spots above where their objective ranking places them.
  • Why people are still holding out hope for St. Louis, I don't know
  • Surprisingly, it seems Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Arizona aren't playing quite as well as people perceive.
  • The Vikings are actually playing quite a bit better than people want to give them credit for, but I guess people will be really down on a team that blows three consecutive double-digit halftime leads.
  • Miami is playing slightly better than people are thinking, but not a huge difference.

 

Sources

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