NFL Power Rankings From Around the Web: 2011 Week 2

Norv is worried sick about where the Chargers rank this week.

Everybody have a good first week back? The syllabus makes sense to you? Good! Now it's time to really start paying attention.

Oh who am I kidding, things don't really start shaking out until around week 4 anyway. But what's it matter? It's still fun to look at how things are shaping up already, and who thinks which teams are good and which aren't.

Notable Quotes

Fox

It might not have been as one-sided a game as some expected, but given the things that went against San Diego early, this was a game previous Chargers teams might have lost. They got better as a team Sunday

Sports Illustrated

Just like last year, special teams breakdowns immediately surfaced in San Diego, with the Chargers allowing Minnesota receiver-return man Percy Harvin to take the opening kickoff 103 yards last Sunday, losing kicker Nate Kaeding to a season-ending knee injury in the process. But unlike last year, San Diego didn't let the special teams blunder ruin the entire day, and that perseverance was the best indication that 2011 will be a different story for the Chargers.

ProFootballTalk

An ugly win in September is one of the prettiest things this slow-starting team has seen in years.

Subjective Average

  Subjective
  ESPN Fox CBS Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation   Average   Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Patriots 2 3 2 2 5 3 2 2 2 3 2.600   0.917
Ravens 4 4 5 4 4 2 3 3 3 2 3.400   0.917
Eagles 3 6 4 6 8 4 4 4 4 4 4.700   1.418
Jets 5 8 6 3 6 5 6 5 5 5 5.400   1.200
Chargers 9 2 3 9 3 7 5 7 7 8 6.000   2.450
Saints 6 5 11 5 2 6 7 8 6 6 6.200   2.182
Bears 7 10 8 8 7 9 10 9 8 9 8.500   1.025
Steelers 8 7 10 7 11 10 8 10 9 7 8.700   1.418
Texans 10 9 7 12 10 8 11 6 10 11 9.400   1.800
Falcons 11 12 9 10 9 12 9 11 11 10 10.400   1.114
Lions 12 11 13 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 11.900   0.700
Cowboys 13 14 12 15 14 14 16 13 12 13 13.600   1.200
Buccaneers 14 13 21 20 15 15 14 15 16 14 15.700   2.532
Redskins 19 15 14 13 20 13 15 14 14 22 15.900   3.048
Cardinals 16 17 16 21 17 18 17 19 17 17 17.500   1.432
Raiders 18 20 19 17 18 16 13 21 15 24 18.100   2.982
Giants 17 19 15 14 23 19 19 16 22 18 18.200   2.713
Bills 27 22 17 18 13 17 23 17 18 21 19.300   3.770
Jaguars 15 28 18 19 16 20 22 18 23 16 19.500   3.748
49ers 22 18 20 25 19 23 18 20 24 19 20.800   2.400
Rams 20 26 23 16 21 21 25 23 20 15 21.000   3.347
Dolphins 26 25 24 24 30 22 21 24 19 26 24.100   2.879
Bengals 30 21 25 26 26 24 20 22 28 27 24.900   3.015
Colts 23 16 22 22 29 30 27 31 29 29 25.800   4.578
Vikings 24 24 28 27 24 26 30 25 21 31 26.000   2.898
Titans 25 31 30 28 27 25 26 27 25 20 26.400   2.905
Chiefs 21 32 32 23 32 27 28 29 26 25 27.500   3.667
Panthers 29 29 26 30 22 28 29 26 27 30 27.600   2.332
Browns 32 27 27 29 31 29 24 30 31 28 28.800   2.272
Seahawks 31 23 31 31 25 32 32 32 32 23 29.200   3.682
Broncos 28 30 29 32 28 31 31 28 30 32 29.900   1.513

 

Observations:

  • We have a new bottom team! It's our good friends the Denver Broncos, who just edged out the Seahawks. What's interesting this week is the lack of a unanimous - or near-unanimous - bottom team.
  • The Chargers actually gained ground this week, moving up 1.3 spots on average. Also, every site has them listed as 9th or better.
  • The Colts fell hard. But I suppose that's a little expected when you get embarrassed by the Texans like they did. (Also, see: Chiefs)
  • After one embarrassing loss, most the pundits haven't given up on the Steelers as easily.
  • The Bengals are climbing the rankings.

 

Subjective Standard Deviation

  Subjective
  ESPN Fox CBS Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation   Average   Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Lions 12 11 13 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 11.900   0.700
Ravens 4 4 5 4 4 2 3 3 3 2 3.400   0.917
Patriots 2 3 2 2 5 3 2 2 2 3 2.600   0.917
Bears 7 10 8 8 7 9 10 9 8 9 8.500   1.025
Falcons 11 12 9 10 9 12 9 11 11 10 10.400   1.114
Cowboys 13 14 12 15 14 14 16 13 12 13 13.600   1.200
Jets 5 8 6 3 6 5 6 5 5 5 5.400   1.200
Eagles 3 6 4 6 8 4 4 4 4 4 4.700   1.418
Steelers 8 7 10 7 11 10 8 10 9 7 8.700   1.418
Cardinals 16 17 16 21 17 18 17 19 17 17 17.500   1.432
Broncos 28 30 29 32 28 31 31 28 30 32 29.900   1.513
Texans 10 9 7 12 10 8 11 6 10 11 9.400   1.800
Saints 6 5 11 5 2 6 7 8 6 6 6.200   2.182
Browns 32 27 27 29 31 29 24 30 31 28 28.800   2.272
Panthers 29 29 26 30 22 28 29 26 27 30 27.600   2.332
49ers 22 18 20 25 19 23 18 20 24 19 20.800   2.400
Chargers 9 2 3 9 3 7 5 7 7 8 6.000   2.450
Buccaneers 14 13 21 20 15 15 14 15 16 14 15.700   2.532
Giants 17 19 15 14 23 19 19 16 22 18 18.200   2.713
Dolphins 26 25 24 24 30 22 21 24 19 26 24.100   2.879
Vikings 24 24 28 27 24 26 30 25 21 31 26.000   2.898
Titans 25 31 30 28 27 25 26 27 25 20 26.400   2.905
Raiders 18 20 19 17 18 16 13 21 15 24 18.100   2.982
Bengals 30 21 25 26 26 24 20 22 28 27 24.900   3.015
Redskins 19 15 14 13 20 13 15 14 14 22 15.900   3.048
Rams 20 26 23 16 21 21 25 23 20 15 21.000   3.347
Chiefs 21 32 32 23 32 27 28 29 26 25 27.500   3.667
Seahawks 31 23 31 31 25 32 32 32 32 23 29.200   3.682
Jaguars 15 28 18 19 16 20 22 18 23 16 19.500   3.748
Bills 27 22 17 18 13 17 23 17 18 21 19.300   3.770
Colts 23 16 22 22 29 30 27 31 29 29 25.800   4.578

 

Observations:

  • So there seems to be general consensus of the top 12 teams, with two exceptions: the Saints and Chargers. Draw your own conclusions.
  • Towards the bottom end of the spectrum, we have teams that have left the everyone dumbfounded. No one expected the Colts to be that bad. 
  • The Bills surprised everyone, but many are a bit gunshy about giving them higher rankings.

 

Objective Average

  Subjective
  Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin   Average   Standard Deviation
Patriots 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Ravens 3 3 2 2.667   0.471
Packers 7 2 3 4.000   2.160
Jets 6 5 4 5.000   0.817
Steelers 5 7 5 5.667   0.943
Eagles 2 10 6 6.000   3.266
Chargers 4 9 7 6.667   2.055
Bears 11 4 8 7.667   2.867
Texans 8 14 11 11.000   2.450
Falcons 9 13 12 11.333   1.700
Saints 10 16 9 11.667   3.091
Bills 12 8 18 12.667   4.110
Dolphins 13 17 16 15.333   1.700
Lions 16 6 25 15.667   7.760
Cowboys 21 15 13 16.333   3.399
Giants 14 21 15 16.667   3.091
Bengals 23 11 17 17.000   4.899
Vikings 18 19 14 17.000   2.160
Redskins 20 12 20 17.333   3.771
Jaguars 15 23 21 19.667   3.399
49ers 17 22 22 20.333   2.357
Colts 30 24 10 21.333   8.380
Buccaneers 22 18 24 21.333   2.494
Raiders 24 20 23 22.333   1.700
Titans 26 27 19 24.000   3.559
Browns 19 26 29 24.667   4.190
Cardinals 25 29 26 26.667   1.700
Broncos 27 31 28 28.667   1.700
Chiefs 31 25 31 29.000   2.828
Panthers 28 32 27 29.000   2.160
Seahawks 32 28 30 30.000   1.633
Rams 29 30 32 30.333   1.247

 

Observations:

  • The DVOA column is actually Football Outsider's DAVE rankings, which right now only accounts for 10% VOA, and 90% their pre-season projections. So that said, the Colts being 30th should be a testament to just how poorly they played on Sunday.

 

Objective Standard Deviation

  Subjective
  Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin   Average   Standard Deviation
Patriots 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Ravens 3 3 2 2.667   0.471
Jets 6 5 4 5.000   0.817
Steelers 5 7 5 5.667   0.943
Rams 29 30 32 30.333   1.247
Seahawks 32 28 30 30.000   1.633
Dolphins 13 17 16 15.333   1.700
Broncos 27 31 28 28.667   1.700
Falcons 9 13 12 11.333   1.700
Cardinals 25 29 26 26.667   1.700
Raiders 24 20 23 22.333   1.700
Chargers 4 9 7 6.667   2.055
Packers 7 2 3 4.000   2.160
Vikings 18 19 14 17.000   2.160
Panthers 28 32 27 29.000   2.160
49ers 17 22 22 20.333   2.357
Texans 8 14 11 11.000   2.450
Buccaneers 22 18 24 21.333   2.494
Chiefs 31 25 31 29.000   2.828
Bears 11 4 8 7.667   2.867
Giants 14 21 15 16.667   3.091
Saints 10 16 9 11.667   3.091
Eagles 2 10 6 6.000   3.266
Cowboys 21 15 13 16.333   3.399
Jaguars 15 23 21 19.667   3.399
Titans 26 27 19 24.000   3.559
Redskins 20 12 20 17.333   3.771
Bills 12 8 18 12.667   4.110
Browns 19 26 29 24.667   4.190
Bengals 23 11 17 17.000   4.899
Lions 16 6 25 15.667   7.760
Colts 30 24 10 21.333   8.380

 

Observations:

  • Patriots are the stat geeks' unanimous number-1 team? *gulp*

 

Overall Average

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Patriots 2.600 1.000   1.800   1.049   -1.600
Packers 1.000 4.000 2.500   1.635   3.000
Ravens 3.400 2.667 3.033   0.890   -0.733
Jets 5.400 5.000 5.200   1.136   -0.400
Eagles 4.700 6.000 5.350   2.076   1.300
Chargers 6.000 6.667 6.333   2.381   0.667
Steelers 8.700 5.667 7.183   1.840   -3.033
Bears 8.500 7.667 8.083   1.682   -0.833
Saints 6.200 11.667 8.933   3.342   5.467
Texans 9.400 11.000 10.200   2.081   1.600
Falcons 10.400 11.333 10.867   1.332   0.933
Lions 11.900 15.667 13.783   4.098   3.767
Cowboys 13.600 16.333 14.967   2.258   2.733
Bills 19.300 12.667 15.983   4.758   -6.633
Redskins 15.900 17.333 16.617   3.285   1.433
Giants 18.200 16.667 17.433   2.878   -1.533
Buccaneers 15.700 21.333 18.517   3.464   5.633
Jaguars 19.500 19.667 19.583   3.671   0.167
Dolphins 24.100 15.333 19.717   4.548   -8.767
Raiders 18.100 22.333 20.217   3.269   4.233
49ers 20.800 20.333 20.567   2.398   -0.467
Bengals 24.900 17.000 20.950   4.859   -7.900
Vikings 26.000 17.000 21.500   4.682   -9.000
Cardinals 17.500 26.667 22.083   4.142   9.167
Colts 25.800 21.333 23.567   5.989   -4.467
Titans 26.400 24.000 25.200   3.231   -2.400
Rams 21.000 30.333 25.667   4.944   9.333
Browns 28.800 24.667 26.733   3.325   -4.133
Chiefs 27.500 29.000 28.250   3.549   1.500
Panthers 27.600 29.000 28.300   2.368   1.400
Broncos 29.900 28.667 29.283   1.643   -1.233
Seahawks 29.200 30.000 29.600   3.341   0.800

 

Overall Standard Deviation

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Ravens 3.400 2.667   3.033   0.890   -0.733
Patriots 2.600 1.000 1.800   1.049   -1.600
Jets 5.400 5.000 5.200   1.136   -0.400
Falcons 10.400 11.333 10.867   1.332   0.933
Packers 1.000 4.000 2.500   1.635   3.000
Broncos 29.900 28.667 29.283   1.643   -1.233
Bears 8.500 7.667 8.083   1.682   -0.833
Steelers 8.700 5.667 7.183   1.840   -3.033
Eagles 4.700 6.000 5.350   2.076   1.300
Texans 9.400 11.000 10.200   2.081   1.600
Cowboys 13.600 16.333 14.967   2.258   2.733
Panthers 27.600 29.000 28.300   2.368   1.400
Chargers 6.000 6.667 6.333   2.381   0.667
49ers 20.800 20.333 20.567   2.398   -0.467
Giants 18.200 16.667 17.433   2.878   -1.533
Titans 26.400 24.000 25.200   3.231   -2.400
Raiders 18.100 22.333 20.217   3.269   4.233
Redskins 15.900 17.333 16.617   3.285   1.433
Browns 28.800 24.667 26.733   3.325   -4.133
Seahawks 29.200 30.000 29.600   3.341   0.800
Saints 6.200 11.667 8.933   3.342   5.467
Buccaneers 15.700 21.333 18.517   3.464   5.633
Chiefs 27.500 29.000 28.250   3.549   1.500
Jaguars 19.500 19.667 19.583   3.671   0.167
Lions 11.900 15.667 13.783   4.098   3.767
Cardinals 17.500 26.667 22.083   4.142   9.167
Dolphins 24.100 15.333 19.717   4.548   -8.767
Vikings 26.000 17.000 21.500   4.682   -9.000
Bills 19.300 12.667 15.983   4.758   -6.633
Bengals 24.900 17.000 20.950   4.859   -7.900
Rams 21.000 30.333 25.667   4.944   9.333
Colts 25.800 21.333 23.567   5.989   -4.467

 


Difference in Averages

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Rams 21.000 30.333   25.667   4.944   9.333
Cardinals 17.500 26.667 22.083   4.142   9.167
Buccaneers 15.700 21.333 18.517   3.464   5.633
Saints 6.200 11.667 8.933   3.342   5.467
Raiders 18.100 22.333 20.217   3.269   4.233
Lions 11.900 15.667 13.783   4.098   3.767
Packers 1.000 4.000 2.500   1.635   3.000
Cowboys 13.600 16.333 14.967   2.258   2.733
Texans 9.400 11.000 10.200   2.081   1.600
Chiefs 27.500 29.000 28.250   3.549   1.500
Redskins 15.900 17.333 16.617   3.285   1.433
Panthers 27.600 29.000 28.300   2.368   1.400
Eagles 4.700 6.000 5.350   2.076   1.300
Falcons 10.400 11.333 10.867   1.332   0.933
Seahawks 29.200 30.000 29.600   3.341   0.800
Chargers 6.000 6.667 6.333   2.381   0.667
Jaguars 19.500 19.667 19.583   3.671   0.167
Jets 5.400 5.000 5.200   1.136   -0.400
49ers 20.800 20.333 20.567   2.398   -0.467
Ravens 3.400 2.667 3.033   0.890   -0.733
Bears 8.500 7.667 8.083   1.682   -0.833
Broncos 29.900 28.667 29.283   1.643   -1.233
Giants 18.200 16.667 17.433   2.878   -1.533
Patriots 2.600 1.000 1.800   1.049   -1.600
Titans 26.400 24.000 25.200   3.231   -2.400
Steelers 8.700 5.667 7.183   1.840   -3.033
Browns 28.800 24.667 26.733   3.325   -4.133
Colts 25.800 21.333 23.567   5.989   -4.467
Bills 19.300 12.667 15.983   4.758   -6.633
Bengals 24.900 17.000 20.950   4.859   -7.900
Dolphins 24.100 15.333 19.717   4.548   -8.767
Vikings 26.000 17.000 21.500   4.682   -9.000

 

Observations:

 

  • It may not be a perfect predictor, but I like sorting the list this way because it helps to see who's set-up to fall, and which teams to watch out for. One other way to look at it is, "which teams are overhyped and which are underhyped".
  • Right now the Chargers are basically on par with where they should be and where people think they should be.
  • It seems people are way too high on the Rams and Cardinals so far.
  • Don't count out the Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals or Bills. They seem to be the biggest "flying under the radar" candidates so far.

 

Future Changes

You may have noticed that these rankings are now actual tables and not just images. I've finally created a new workflow that outputs most the data so I can copy-paste it into here easily.

In the future, I'll be able to more-easily manipulate the data in new ways, and coming up: graphs. I'll be able to chart any of the datapoints throughout the year for any team.

As always, let me know if there's something you like or don't, or if  you want to see something done differently.

 

Sources

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