Will Ryan Mathews Bounce Back?: A Research Project
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 2:30 PM PDT
in BFTB Editorials
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PrintLike with most posts, this post is will be a journey through numbers as I research a theory that I have. The theory, and it's not a rare one, is that many rookie running backs improve from their rookie seasons to their second year. When I say improve, I mean they stay healthier, fumble less and generally make more big plays; all of the things we felt were lacking from Ryan Mathews in 2010.
The reason I feel that this is necessary is that fans — and certain radio shows that I won't mention — are already writing Mathews off. They're ready to call him "The new Buster Davis", which seems incredibly unfair. Especially to someone who thought that Mathews was pretty good last year. So let's start by coming up with an arbitrary list of good RBs that had as many carries in their rookie season as Ryan had in 2010:
- Matt Forte
- Chris Johnson
- Adrian Peterson
- LeSean McCoy
| Games | Carries | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Y/A | Fumbles | |
| Forte | 16 | 316 | 1,238 | 8 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Johnson | 15 | 251 | 1,228 | 9 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Peterson | 14 | 238 | 1,341 | 12 | 5.6 | 4 |
| McCoy | 16 | 155 | 637 | 4 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Mathews | 12 | 158 | 678 | 7 | 4.3 | 5 |
Obviously, we're comparing Mathews with the best RBs in the league so it's going to be difficult for him to compete. However, it's interesting to see his yards per attempt as better than Forte and McCoy and to see that he had almost twice as many TDs as McCoy. The two things he needs to work on are the two things that we knew all along: fumbles and health. However, to call him a bust when he put up a rather solid 3/4 of a season is a little much.
Let's look at how the four comparables did in their second year.
| Games | Carries | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Y/A | Fumbles | |
| Forte | 16 | 258 | 929 | 4 | 3.6 | 6 |
| Johnson | 16 | 358 | 2,006 | 14 | 5.6 | 3 |
| Peterson | 16 | 363 | 1,760 | 10 | 4.8 | 9 |
| McCoy | 15 | 207 | 1,080 | 7 | 5.2 | 2 |
So, who regressed? Well, Forte took a step back in every category except games played. The biggest reason for that, though, was a switch in offensive philosophies when Mike Martz was hired as the Offensive Coordinator.
Johnson and Peterson took huge steps forward, but Peterson's problems with fumbles got worse. McCoy, with Michael Vick taking a lot of the defense's focus, was a much better RB. McCoy is a good comparison for Mathews in terms of performance, especially because the Chargers offense around Mathews is expected to be improved over last season. Also, both players are running backs in systems that are heavily pass-oriented, whereas Peterson and Johnson were the #1 option in their respective offenses.
Peterson is the best comparison in terms of fumbles. In his first three seasons, he fumbled once every 45.75 carries. Mathews, in his rookie year, fumbled once every 31.6 carries. It's worse than Peterson, but neither number is good. In his fourth season, Peterson fumbled just once in 283 carries. More on this in a second.
Tiki Barber is always the go–to example. Tiki was thought of as a guy that was too small and fumbled too often to ever be a starting RB. How bad was it? Well, in a four-year span he had 35 fumbles (never less than 8 in a season). At one point, he was fumbling once every 22 carries. Yikes.
Tiki decided that he needed to put the team and the turnovers ahead of his own performance, and started running with two hands on the ball at all times. Instead of his running getting worse, he actually got better. Since retiring, Barber has worked with several RBs to fix their fumbling issues. One of those guys was Adrian Peterson. Want to know what they found out?
I found out at times by studying myself when I'm going down, I kinda braced myself with my hand that I'm carrying the ball in and that's leaving opportunities for those guys that are in their scraping and punching for the ball.That gives them big opportunities to make big plays. I'm a pretty tough guy, so I need to just keep the ball high and fall down
So, here's the point I'm getting at: If you have called Ryan Mathews a bust, you're a fool. His talent running the ball is obvious. He may even be at the level of a Tiki Barber or an Adrian Peterson, where he's so good that you're willing to live with the fumbles for a while. The bigger point here is that fumbling issues are fixable, and perhaps would already be fixed with Mathews had he been afforded the opportunity to work out at Chargers Park with the coaching staff during the offseason instead of being locked out.
Mathews will be fine. He's exactly what this offense needs, a tough RB that can break off big plays when the O-line opens up holes for him. Missing a quarter of the season is not a rarity in the NFL, especially for a rookie, and hopefully the health gods shine happily on Mathews for the rest of his career. The fumbles are not the biggest deal in the world either. It could be worse, Ryan could have been an untalented RB.
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I hope so. He's on my fanasty team
Chargers Fans keep on saying how he was a good RB last year, but was just held back by injuries and Mike Tolbert. He can hopefully be a good starting RB this year. If not I also selected L. Blount from the Bucs. He had 1000 Yards while only playing 7 games.
Taylor Price will be the starter by the end of the season (Said before Training Camp)
From Acee article Monday Night
It wasn’t a punishment, per se. But two days after Mathews put a ball on the ground at Arizona, which followed last week’s fumble by Tolbert, the Chargers running backs did some extra work after practice Monday.
While they have worked a period on ball security at the start of practice every day since the start of camp, Monday was the first time where they did a post-practice version of an old Turner favorite, where a back carries a ball attached to a giant rubber band while another player trails the ball carrier and yanks on the band.
"It helps you keep the ball in your body," Mathews said. "…The difference between having the ball tucked in by your body and two inches away from your body is big. It’s a game of inches. It’s the little things you have to focus on. When I cut, the ball tends to leave my body for a split second. That’s a split second someone can steal the ball."
by Orz on Aug 30, 2011 2:49 PM PDT reply actions 5 recs
In Norv We Trust
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Slightly OT
But is anyone worried about the Minnesota game? I caught a bit of the Minny-Dallas game and Peterson made some incredible cuts. Game 1 against a great RB and an old QB with something to prove…if we struggle in week 1 like usual and have to go to NE the next week…ouch.
Their D didn't impress me
And we can beat them in a shootout any day.
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
By "any day"
Do you take into account how slow we start the season?
by Cake or Death on Aug 30, 2011 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Yup
There’s no good reason to expect the Offense to start slow. Could it happen? Of course. But the entire O is intact for the first time in a while.
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
I wouldn't be surprised if the offense did start slowly
We’ve had the full offense to start the season before and it didn’t really make a difference. John pointed something out this week about how Rivers tends to start slowly. I would agree with that instead of just pointing the finger at Norv.
by Cake or Death on Aug 30, 2011 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
That's a whole other discussion
There are a lot of things that go into the offense starting slow in games. I don’t think it’s related to the slow starts the team has experienced as a whole, or we’d be blaming the O for last year.
We’ll just have to see though. Personally, the offense is the only unit that doesn’t really worry me.
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
Definitely worried
Our run defense has been getting gashed during the preseason and our pass coverage made Kolb look awesome. Adrian Peterson is a beast.
Certainly
As we all know every team is a threat in this league, and Minny certainly looks like a dangerous team. They have AP, and we all know what he can do. They have McNabb, who is past his prime but still dangerous, and who has a decent receiving corp to work with. Defensively they aren’t spectacular but they do have a strong front 4, which can disrupt Rivers and jam up the running game.
I wouldn’t pick them to go to the SB but they can certainly steal a game from us.
I'm pretty sure any front four can disrupt our running game
by Gorditoe1 on Aug 30, 2011 3:37 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
No, they ain't.
Where the hell have you been?
by BORTZ on Aug 30, 2011 7:33 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
So Mike Nolan didn't install a 3-4?
So they didn’t sign Jamal from us in order to play NT in said 3-4.
So we didn’t run all over them in said 3-4 last year?
So the news stories that said they were switching to a 4-3 this offseason and changing their personal decisions accordingly were all wrong?
Huh?
Bolts from the Blue // "I eat cereal out of a giant novelty wine glass because it makes me feel fancy." - Britney Wade
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Aug 30, 2011 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions
We ran all over the Broncos 3-4 last year
In fact, Mathews only really great game came against them. So saying their defensive front could shut down our running game was wrong. But since they were a 3-4 team, it would also be wrong to say that their “front 4” wasn’t able to stop the running game, since of course they don’t have a front 4.
FWIW
I think the Broncos will be a little better than people expect, this year, mostly because they stuck with Orton.
by Cake or Death on Aug 30, 2011 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Make up your mind, dude.
you said they “are” a 3-4 team. I said you’re wrong. Get it? They WERE a 3-4 team.
You’ve even managed to confuse Robot Richard Wade.
Also
McNabb is a historically fast starter.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Was the quote from Adrian Peterson or Tiki Barber?
It won’t make much difference in the impact of your point, but I’m just curious who said it.
In regards to Tiki, I remember watching a really interesting ESPN segment about the adjustments he needed to make to be able to secure the ball better. Tiki had to adjust the position on his body where he carried the football from cradled in one arm around his stomach to against his chest and near his shoulders. The running backs coach then made the point to Tiki that this is also going to change the fundamental way he runs and the types of cuts and angles he can take.
Mathews’ fumble on Saturday reminded me of this because of how Mathews was holding the ball when he was stripped.
Peterson
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Mathews is fine
He just doesn’t have holes to run through. It’s hard to get more than a yard or two when you’re met at the line by an LB, or when you’re being dragged down from behind. RB performance is not always a good indicator of the OL’s performance. For the Chargers, right now, it is. Note that Tolbert averaged fewer YPC (4.0) than Mathews (4.3) last year. Fumble rate was comparable. Both were getting regular reps at RB in the NFL for the first time. The problem, such as it is, is not specific to Mathews.
The fumbling thing can be fixed, and is being addressed (as Orz noted above). Maybe the guys are trying too hard to take advantage of every hole they get. Who knows. I think it’s clear that Mathews was hampered by the lockout, in any case.
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
by aesimpleton on Aug 30, 2011 2:55 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
agreed
Matthews has to run through the line every time.
The OL hasn’t created space for the running game for several years – I hope they (Norv) finally figure it out.
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
They get it right sometimes
I don’t know that it’s really Norv’s fault when they don’t. Sometimes a guy slips or gets beat. Sometimes a TE doesn’t get a good block. It’s worth noting that Hester is rarely the reason when RM or MT are stopped short; his worst plays are usually when he just jumps on a pile and doesn’t help anything.
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
Mathews will be fine
Exactly right, John.
Mathews does have room for improvement. He needs to fumble less (though Tolbert is just as bad!) and he needs to become a much bigger part of the passing game, both as a blocker and a reciever.
But as a runner, the only thing he needs is more carries and some better run blocking. I rewatched the Cowboys and Cardinals games, and it was very simple: when he had any kind of hole or crease to work with he looked fine. On his negative runs he was met by one or more defenders in the backfield. No NFL runner, no matter how good, can work with that. Hopefully when McNeil returns, and the chargers have a full game plan going things will pick up for him.
by CABurrito on Aug 30, 2011 2:55 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Red'd for truth
Can’t run if there’s no place to go.
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
Agree with everything here
I’ve been optimistically blaming McNeill’s absence for a lot of the trouble, as well as Gates playing hardly at all.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
McNeill helps
But the guards in particular, as well as the TEs, need to do a better job. Dielman is still able to do what he used to, but isn’t so effective as he was. Vasquez is up and down. Green is awful.
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
I think
We really suffer at the tight end position when it comes to blocking. Gates and McMichael are definitely receivers first, blockers second.
Is Norv's offensive philosophy the problem?
He is all about passing and pass protection. Either they aren’t getting tackles that can bust open holes or he doesn’t know how to call running plays.
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
I think Norv knows how to call running plays...
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
maybe
He’s just not accustomed too not having a beefy o line like he did when he was o cord in Dallas…those guys opened up BIG holes for Emmitt
by Gorditoe1 on Aug 30, 2011 3:44 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Really?
Norv was the OC for Emmitt Smith (1991-1993), LT’s rookie year, Ricky Williams’ most productive years (2002-2003), and Frank Gore’s most productive year (2006). Now people wondering if he knows how to call running plays?
by Jobumoplata on Aug 30, 2011 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
strange isn't it?
I think they draft O linemen who are good pass blockers
but don’t have the fierce attitude (or strength) to push the line back.
The lack of blocking TE’s is a problem too – but you would think Norv could compensate in his play calling with draw plays, counter plays, traps…but it doesn’t seem to happen.
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
I remember LT
Saying they didn’t run the ball enough the last year or two he was here. To which norv replied, “I’d love to run the ball, but if it ain’t workin” or something to that affect. I think a big part of the problem is the O line. But, norv is also inplicit because he is just too danged predictable. If you run the ball when they are expecting it, unless you do have a monster O line, they are probably going to stop it. Our running game is so-so against bad defenses and terrible against good defenses. I wish we had a good O coordinator and the he was calling the plays insted of norv. Norv’s whole game plan always seems vanilla. Almost never anything that takes you by surprise. Try thinking outside the box once in awhile norv.
Sorry but I disagree
Norv is one of the better Offensive minds in the game, and I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone who disagrees with that. Most critics don’t doubt his offensive mind, they doubt his abilities as a head coach.
Sure, it would be nice to have a dominant run game to add to our dominant passing game, but how many teams in the NFL are dominant in both the run and the pass? We have an elite QB, and some of the best weapons in the receiving game in the league…the running game only needs to be good enough to keep the defense honest, it doesn’t need to be dominant.
by jkvandal on Aug 30, 2011 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sadly
These people complaining about the running game would be just as upset if we had a dominant run game and crap passing offense. Are any Raider fans happy with just running the ball?
"Were such things here as we do speak about?
Or have we eaten on the insane root
That takes the reason prisoner?"
FWIW
I’d really like to see some examples when he was the HC.
Steve Adler
www.Friarhood.com
www.FantasyDaddy.com
Co-Host of HBR on XTRA Sports 1360
www.xtrasports1360.com
According to Pro Football Reference, these were his leading rushers as HC
HC Washington Redskins (1994-2000)
1994 – Ricky Ervin (650 yds, 10 games started)
1995 – Terry Allen (1309 yds, 16 GS)
1996 – Terry Allen (1353 yds, 16 GS)
1997 – Terry Allen (724 yds, 10 GS)
1998 – Terry Allen (700 yds, 10 GS)
1999 – Stephen Davis (1405 yds, 14 GS)
2000 – Stephen Davis (1318 yds, 15 GS)
HC Oakland Raiders
2004 – Amos Zereoue (425 yds, 6 GS)
2005 – LaMont Jordan (1025, 14 GS)
Combined with his RBs as OC, the only time his RBs haven’t done well is when they’re hurt, they’re in Oakland, or his past 3 years in SD.
I would have titled this article
“Will Ryan Mathews Be A Bust?” but to each their own.
Actually, I think I almost did write something with that title last year. I think John told me to go fornicate with myself.
"Beating the Red Sox feels SO GOOD.! SO GOOD! SO GOOD!" -jbox
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Aug 30, 2011 3:07 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That sounds like me.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m shocked to hear him be labeled a bust. Some people must be blind because he shows great ability when he touches the ball. Fumbling is something that can be corrected by practice and coaching. The guys like what 22? Like always give a player until his 3-4 year. The naysayers are probably the same ones that bashed Cason because they couldn’t grasp the diffrences of the CB and Nick CB position.
"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentation of their women." -The Barbarian
by traceSD on Aug 30, 2011 3:42 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
24 years old
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not the years, it's the mileage.
200 pro carries. Age is just a number.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Aug 31, 2011 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions
People losing patience
Liuget is starting to look like a bust, actually.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Aug 30, 2011 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
That guy totally sucks.
Bolts from the Blue // "I eat cereal out of a giant novelty wine glass because it makes me feel fancy." - Britney Wade
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Aug 30, 2011 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll second that
Yeah, i ain’t ready to give up on ,mathews yet. He was a rookie on a weak running team. Heck, if he was on the chiefs (bite my tongue) he probably would have had better success. The chiefs can run the ball, the chargers haven’t been able to the last few years. I also think English better do something this year or he’ll be right there with BUSTer Davis.
I got to say
I’m most definitely not impressed with Mathews play,but it does have to do a lot with the o line and norvs focus on the pass. That’s why LT was whining his last year with us. How could this get fixed if we already have the personnel and offensive scheme in place for the season? This is going to be a hot button issue for the remainder of the season. People are just not going to be content with the running game all year unless run blocking,scheme,players,and talent somehow just get it together. I hope it does because it would be bad if rivers had to throw it 50 times a game( I’m exaggerating ) but you get my point.
by Gorditoe1 on Aug 30, 2011 3:53 PM PDT via iPhone app reply actions
Is it Really our O-line?
I too hate watching the Chargers have no success at running the ball. I also hate to see no holes when we do run, but is it the line or the Scheme? or the creativity that goes into call run plays?
Most of these guys were playing when LT was great, yes they are older but they can still ball.
I think the problem with our running game is that we call the same type of run play at almost the same situation over and over. We are very creative and fansy when it comes to making a big play through the air, but we lack that same mind set when it comes to call run plays. We are not dynamic with running the ball.
I would love to see more draw plays and really have our O-line power the front when running up the gut. We seem to always run on 1st down and our formation can just SCREEEAM RUN.
How many times have you watched the Chargers line up and you call RUN play and sure enough, they run it? and the outcome is usually the defense sniffing it out and hitting our guys for a 1-3 yard gain or a loss.
I hope Norv has some creative running installed this year. We are too predictable when it comes to running the ball.
Yes, but if they solved this problem
you wouldn’t know about that yet. Still preseason.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Aug 31, 2011 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Seems to me
I remember Norv calling a number of gadget running plays last year and previous years. They don’t always work, but he calls them.
I would love to see more draw playsBite your tongue. Bite hard. This is Norv’s pet play; it’s the epitome of predictable. Third and five, Sproles in the backfield, draw play, stuffed for a loss. Must have seen this 25 times last year. It works once a year: the first time the Raiders see it. It never works any other time.
Ray Lewis still dreams about this play.
Are Marlon McCree and Antonio Cromartie the same person? Just askin'.
I remember the Denver Game
when the division was on the line and LT was playing hurt, Norv came out in the power formation and LT was easily breaking out big runs hobbled to start the game, before he sat out.
That might of been the only time I saw Norv line up in this formation, I would love for Norv to run this formation, yes they know we are running, but we have so many guys up fron blocking that our RB is sure to run for positive yards. I want to see more Power O and draw plays this year.
Power I is a blantly a running formation
how do you go from
I think the problem with our running game is that we call the same type of run play at almost the same situation over and over.
and
I hope Norv has some creative running installed this year
to
That might of been the only time I saw Norv line up in this formation, I would love for Norv to run this formation, yes they know we are running, but we have so many guys up fron blocking that our RB is sure to run for positive yards. I want to see more Power O and draw plays this year.
You Norv to get creative, by going with Power I. Take a second to think over that over… that’s not creative at all. Norv gets creative with the running game all the time, especially when we had B. Manumaleuna.He does this by shifting the offense into a run formation against Pass Defense groupings. He uses the pass to set up the run by going deep early. He uses Dives/Traps/Sweeps/
Blasts and yes, even draws. It’s all about execution. This is a different O-line than the one that used to block for LT, there is a differ FB and different TEs. Different does not mean better and it certainly doesn’t worse. This is just not a straight power Offense kind of team.
Now what I would like to see (maybe just in the presason) is a Double-Wing (Single Tight) T Formation. Now that would creative.
BOOM!
Mathews
will make a really nice backup for someone in a few years.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Aug 31, 2011 2:01 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Don't like the Tiki Barber comparison
I personally think he was overrated and I just don’t like him.
Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say s--- or f--- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
by Superduperboltman on Aug 31, 2011 8:31 AM PDT reply actions
That draft class
In the first round the backs taken where CJ. Spiller, Ryan Mathews and Javid Best… in my opinion if you consider Mathews a bust then Best and Spiller should be considered “busts” as well. Is this year a make or break year for him of course it is. However, to judge these guys after only one year in the league is absurd.
I was with you until the "make or break year for him"
But I agree that judging any player after one year is absurd.
based on the squad
he should consider it a make or break year!! Win now not later.
actually, i think...
a more apt comparison would be with mcfaddens rookie season. (altho Mathews was a bit better in every category)
"i'm not inclined to resign to maturity"...PSYCH theme
by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Aug 31, 2011 8:44 PM PDT reply actions
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