Who's the Real "Dream Team": The WRs

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 11:00 AM PDT

In case you weren't around last week, I got fed up with the major media outlets referring to the Philadelphia Eagles as "The Dream Team" of the NFL simply because they signed some free agents. With hopes of embarrassing them, I've been matching every position on the Eagles roster with the Chargers roster. Today, the WRs...

	Rec	Yds	Yds/Rec	TDs
DeSean Jackson	47	1,056	22.5	6
Jeremy Maclin	70	964	13.8	10
Steve Smith	48	529	11.0	3

All of these numbers are from 2010. Here I was thinking I'd have to do some complicated math for Smith to try and figure out what he might do in 2011, considering that he'll play a half-season at best. As it turns out, he only played a half season last year.

	Rec	Yds	Yds/Rec	TDs
Vincent Jackson (2009)	68	1,167	17.2	9
Malcom Floyd (2009)	45	776	17.2	1
Patrick Crayton (2010)	28	514	18.4	1

I used the '09 numbers for Jackson and Floyd because those are the roles they will be reprising this season: Jackson as the WR1 for an entire season and Floyd moving back to WR2.

Winner - Eagles. I think Crayton and Smith are a wash. I also think it's not a stretch to say VJax is a little better than either DeSean or Maclin (although the Jacksons' numbers from 2009 are nearly identical). The pain in this comparison comes in the matchup between Floyd and either DeSean or Maclin. You could say Gates is the #1 WR for the Chargers and that's why Floyd's numbers aren't as good as the guys he's competing against but, that's why the battle for the better TE on paper was such an easy win for San Diego.

Running Tally:

The QBs - Draw
The RBs - Eagles
The TEs - Chargers
The WRs - Eagles

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Comments

I'm surprised by how few receptions DeSean actually gets in that offense in Philly

I always thought that they passed him the ball underneath the coverage and get him the ball in open space and elude defenders, but that would give him a lot more receptions. I guess I just never looked too closely at how they use their receivers there.

One thing that wasn’t mentioned that gives the Chargers receivers a huge advantage is size…especially with VJax and Floyd. It makes life a lot easier for Philip when he can throw the ball to VJax or M80 even when they are covered, knowing that they will use their height to get the ball at the highest point before the defender can even reach it. You aren’t going to see DeSean Jackson doing that nearly as often.

But I guess I can’t argue against your conclusion, the Iggles probably come out with a narrow win in this matchup.

by jkvandal on Aug 24, 2011 11:25 AM PDT reply actions

Yeah

DeSean is mostly used as a deep threat. Almost exclusively, actually, because of his speed and his propensity to get injured when he’s actually hit. 22.5 yards per reception is amazing.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions

It really is impressive

but I’m less impressed that he only caught 47 passes in a season. It’s hard to call yourself the #1 WR when you team throws you the ball less than 3 times per game.

I’m sure he really stretches out the defense and creates space as teams honor his deep threat, but I’m shocked at that low number of catches.

by jkvandal on Aug 24, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

The primary reason Rivers tosses those jump balls is because that’s the type of targets they are as well as the type of offense SD runs. Ever notice the majority of VJAX and M80’S targets are deep comebacks or box out post routes. If they were smaller with that little guy quickness Norv would even attampt those routes.

"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentation of their women." -The Barbarian

by traceSD on Aug 24, 2011 9:22 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

I still have a problem with the QB comparison

There is no way that Michael Vick is as good as Rivers. He had one surprising year where he tried to prove his naysayers wrong. David Garrard had a really good year in which he didn’t throw a pick until late in the season. Yes, David Garrard. Until Vick proves that he can throw the ball consistently over several seasons, Rivers will be better.

by Cake or Death on Aug 24, 2011 11:43 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Vick vs Rivers

Vick is gread we all saw him last year. But the thing that seperates him and Rivers, is his constant thread of injury due to his style of quaterback. Yes, he sits in the pocket more than he did before he went to prison, however we all know Rivers is a much better pocket passer. Rivers wins.

by borno on Aug 24, 2011 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions

I wasn’t rating who was the better pocket passer

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

But that's what matters the most.

And Rivers ranks among the best pocket passers in football history. It’s more-or-less all he’s got (that and emotional leadership), but it’s the thing that’s the most important and even in the Golden Age of Quarterbacking, he’s among the best there is.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Aug 24, 2011 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Vick's 700 rush yards and 9 rush TDs last year matter a little

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

It's not just Vick vs. Rivers

The whole dream team comment came from Vince Young. Sure the judgements on both #1s are close.

Vince Young >> Billy Volek. I think the Eagles depth at QB pushes it int their favor.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 24, 2011 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Depth at QB only matters if your starter gets hurt.

Rivers > Vick >> Young ≥ Volek. Therefore, Rivers ≥≥> the Eagles QB. If Rivers gets hurt, well, that’s that. Why would you think this will happen? Rivers has only taken 30+ sacks once.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Aug 24, 2011 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Just takes one sack....

I think draw at QB was the right call. My bet is that Vick misses time befoe Rivers, but you never know.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 24, 2011 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Vince Young >> Billy Volek.

Please show your work. Given the choice between the two I’d take Volek over Young.

by CABurrito on Aug 24, 2011 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions

How about 35 vs 28 for starters

Then we can go to 6’2" vs 6’5". On mobility I think we’d have to say Young has the big edge. Comparing stats doesn’t really work it has been a LONG time since Volek has played football. When was the last time Billy Volek was an NFL starter? 2005? Young played in the Pro bowl last year.

Young >> Volek seems pretty clear cut to me.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 24, 2011 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions

So you're going by height and age?

By that criteria Jamarcus Russell > Drew Brees.

Mobility? Is that what really counts in an NFL QB? If so then we better trade in the duck runner who currently takes snaps for us. What’s his face? # 17?

Lets try some numbers:

VY career passer rating: 75.4
Volek career passer rating: 84.9.

VY “played in the pro bowl” last year because 4 other QBs from his own conference backed out. And a fat lot of good it did him, as he was so unceremoniously dumped by the Titans after his “Pro Bowl” season (in which he only played in 9 games!).

Despite being a top 3 draft choice, a favorite of his owner, being made the face of his franchise, being surrounded by good defense, a great running game, and a good head coach, VY ultimately did squat in Tennessee. He’s a perfectly mediocre .500 as a starter, had 1 wildcard playoff appearance (which he lost), then rode the bench while a washed up Kerry Collins (!) took his job on multiple occasions and had more success than he ever did.

There’s a reason the Titans cut him loose, and there’s a reason that none of the other teams in the league who were desperate for QB help didn’t bring him in.

by CABurrito on Aug 24, 2011 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs

Mobility? Is that what really counts in an NFL QB?

For some NFL QBs yes mobility is what counts. The Eagles have two of this type of QB. There’s a long list of names.

VY career passer rating: 75.4
Volek career passer rating: 84.9.

By this standard I think I’d rather have Dan Marino as the Chargers back up. He’s only a few years older than Billy since age doesn’t make a difference.

When it gets down to it I have to say that it has been a long time since Volek played at the level of a starting NFL QB. Volek certainly wasn’t the 6th guy on the Pro Bowl list after VY last year. Young is a head case, but sometimes he plays at that starter-level. And a low pressure situation like #2 can only help VY get his head right. Volek is just another year farther away from glory.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 25, 2011 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't mind Dan Marino being the backup

You say that like its a bad thing

6/10/2010 - Tra Thomas signs with the Chargers
8/21/2010 - Tra Thomas retires.

That was fast.

by SD FTW on Aug 25, 2011 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions

The Dan Marino you get today

Ins’t the Dan Marino that created all that success in the past. Sure a QB can go longer than most NFL players, but they have a freashness date too.

Pretty much only Long Snappers can play until they are 65.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 25, 2011 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Volek certainly wasn’t the 6th guy on the Pro Bowl list after VY last year

Actually VY was the 7th choice, behind even Matt Cassell. And how he got picked over guys like Orton, Garrard and Schaub, all of whom had better numbers and actually played a full season, is mystery to me. More proof that calling someone a “pro bowler” is often meaningless.

VY didn’t even have enough pass attempts to qualify for comparison among the league leaders in passing.

Volek is just another year farther away from glory.

As is VY. His last taste of glory came in Pasadena.

by CABurrito on Aug 25, 2011 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

And a low pressure situation like #2 can only help VY get his head right.

Yup, it sure helped him a lot all those years he was backing up Kerry Collins. Head’s totally on straight now.

by CABurrito on Aug 25, 2011 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Here's where I go off the deep end

I actually think Vince Young has better long-term up side than Mike Vick. Right now Vick is clearly better, but how much longer can Vick play that style of football? When Vick is forced to change his game, I just don’t think he’ll be very good as a straight up pocket passer.

Same has been true for VY. In the rookie melt down – dude was a horrible pocket passer. I think backing up Collins kinda gave the guy a chance to learn some new tricks. He played better the second time around. He ain’t great, he might a little below average as a pocket QB. If he can keep improving while in the backup role with the Eagles, I think the guy could be a starter once again and maybe be even better than he was last year.

I am 100% certain that this same story couldn’t be told for Volek. Although he hasn’t sucked as quite as bad this year as he did last year. Volek ain’t getting any better.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 25, 2011 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Apparently

We have been having the wrong discussion the whole time. According to this mornings reports out of Philly, Young might not even have the #2 spot locked up and is having a hard time picking up the offense.

So maybe the question is actually Kafka or Volek?

by CABurrito on Aug 25, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Mobility scheme

there’s a reason that none of the other teams in the league who were desperate for QB help didn’t bring him in

This is an interesting idea. Young locked down pretty quick. I wonder how many teams he talked with.

But since the Eagles now have two QBs that can scramble it gives them some continuity. You can load your play book up with bootlegs and blocking schemes that allow the QB to pick up rushing yardage. If you only have one scrambler, you’ve got a big problem if and when your QB gets nicked – the backup can’t run that offence. The whole team has to change it style of play the minute the scrambler goes down.

Young can pretty much do the same types of things Vick can do. Maybe he doesn’t have the same success on those same plays, but it isn’t a total drop off.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 25, 2011 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions

And in a different direction

left vs right
amirite?

6/10/2010 - Tra Thomas signs with the Chargers
8/21/2010 - Tra Thomas retires.

That was fast.

by SD FTW on Aug 25, 2011 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Really? I'd take Volek over Young any day.

Bolts from the Blue // "I eat cereal out of a giant novelty wine glass because it makes me feel fancy." - Britney Wade
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Aug 24, 2011 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions

2007 Garrard

DG: 64% completion, 2600 total yards, 19 total TDs, 6 turnovers
MV: 62.6% completion, 3700 total yards, 30 total TDs, 17 turnovers

Garrard was conservative, but not a playmaker, that season.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions

I kind of agree with the analysis

but if you were to simplify and just compare the overall receiving corps (i.e. TE + WR), the Chargers would win by a huge margin.

by BFDC on Aug 24, 2011 12:21 PM PDT reply actions

Interesting....

Maybe I’ll go back and do this.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Wouldn't you then also have to consider the catching ability of the RBs

To call it the overall receiving corps.

For that matter, VJ might be the best run blocker of the whole group so he
could easily be rated higher based on that.

I’m not jealous of your undertaking John, good luck.

by Alex Bourque on Aug 24, 2011 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions

This is why I usually tell people who don't like my logic to stick it.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Duly noted

by Alex Bourque on Aug 24, 2011 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Waiting for the Long Snapper article with baited breath.

by Orz on Aug 24, 2011 12:52 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs

David Binn = Chargers Success

6/10/2010 - Tra Thomas signs with the Chargers
8/21/2010 - Tra Thomas retires.

That was fast.

by SD FTW on Aug 24, 2011 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Defense should be interesting

We both have weaknesses at LB. On paper their corners are better, but I have a lot of faith in our secondary.

by Cake or Death on Aug 24, 2011 1:02 PM PDT reply actions

both lines will be fun

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Eagles

I would like to get a chance to plat them….I think it would be an extremely high scoring game!!!

by Gorditoe1 on Aug 24, 2011 1:06 PM PDT reply actions

Won't happen until February, at the earliest.

We’ll all be pretty ecstatic if it does.

by Foutsbeard on Aug 24, 2011 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Off-topic

but old friend Brandon Siler tore his achilles in case anyone hadn’t heard.

by BFDC on Aug 24, 2011 1:16 PM PDT reply actions

Ouch

He tore it on a goal-line play. His bread and butter. Out for the year.

by Cake or Death on Aug 24, 2011 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I think we totally have them beat

With apparel and fine women and also a better climate….dream team HA!!!

by Gorditoe1 on Aug 24, 2011 1:27 PM PDT reply actions

These things are all true

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Aug 24, 2011 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

In breaking news

the sun will rise tomorrow.

Are Marlon McCree and Antonio Cromartie the same person? Just askin'.

by QLFixBoy on Aug 25, 2011 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

We also have them beat in Earthquakes

although they are trying to turn that category around as of yesterday

by jkvandal on Aug 24, 2011 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions

LIAR

Yesterday was the single most devastating thing to ever happen to the Eastern seaboard. I’m surprised it didn’t drop into the Atlantic.

by Cake or Death on Aug 24, 2011 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Apparently

The Atlantic will be coming ashore this weekend.

"Who do you think wiil the replacement for Jerry Jr. Cabarra or Frederson"

by Natrone Means Business on Aug 24, 2011 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

simple totals

(like rec, yards, & TDs), isn’t really the best way to compare the WRs. Not that these 2 sites have the be-all-end-all, but they take a deeper look than simple totals.

If we’re looking at PHI’s 2010 seasons vs our 09s (from the original comparison), we have:
From Football Outsiders:
DeSean: 109 DYAR (45th – behind Avant as well), 2.3% (44th)
Maclin: 251 DYAR (10th), 15.5% DVOA (8th)
Floyd: 219 DYAR (18th), 23.2% (7th)
VJ: 448 DYAR (2nd), 38.7% DVOA (2nd)

Advanded NFL Stats: (WPA/g= win probability added per game, EPA/p = expected pointed added per play)
DeSean: 0.12 WPA/g (tie 7th), 0.45 EPA/p (7th)
Maclin: 0.04 WPA/g (tie 36th, w/Floyd in 2010), 0.31 EPA/p (26th)
Floyd: 0.05 WPA/g (tie 35th) 0.52 EPA/p (7th)
VJ: 0.20 WPA/g (1st), 0.71 EPA/p (tie2nd)

I think it would be safe to say VJ is the best of the bunch, and perhaps even that Floyd is better than Jackson (in some areas at least), he just doesn’t get as many opportunities because as you said he’s the 3rd total target behind VJ & Gates.

Subjective commentary — DeSean Jackson makes sports-center plays when he’s against mediocre corners & a lot of space to run after the catch (ie: doesn’t force a lot of missed tackles when in tight quarters), otherwise struggling to consistently get open. He also drops a lot of balls (which doesn’t work well when he only manages a small # of catches compared to how often he’s on the field). VJ & Floyd on the other hand have among the most dependable hands among all WRs in the league.

by Uppercut on Aug 24, 2011 3:28 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs

Another issue

is the matchups. VJ and Floyd are a nightmare for secondaries because of their height, soft-hands, and athleticism. DeSean and Maclin rely more on their speed.

by Cake or Death on Aug 24, 2011 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions