Playbook Confidential: Personnel and Playcalling

by jkvandal on Aug 23, 2011 2:00 PM PDT in BFTB Editorials

I have this system that I use when watching Charger games where I chart Norv's playcalling by what personnel grouping he has in the game. For example, "11 personnel" (1 RB, 1 TE) and if Norv calls a run or pass from that personnel grouping. It is a quick and easy way to get move involved in the game, but also to easily see tendencies develop in the offensive playcalling.

Why do I chart by personnel grouping instead of formations, you ask? Because the first thing that a Defensive Coordinator looks at before he makes a defensive play call is what personnel grouping that the offense is sending into the game. This is the first move in the chess match that develops for each play call, and is largely what the Defensive Coordinator makes his play call based off of since it is too late to call a play when the offense has lined up in their formation.

However, breaking playcalls down by formation is also a very worthwhile way to identify playcalling tendencies, and Orz did a great job breaking that down yesterday over here.

I used this same system in Charger games last season, and it was very interesting to see how Norv would set up a defense for explosive plays using personnel groupings. For example, many times you would see Norv run for up to 80% of the playcalls out of "21 personnel" (2 RB, 1 TE) in the first half. The defensive coordinator would take notice of this, and scheme to stop the run every time he saw the "21 personnel" grouping in the second half. Norv would then dial up a deep pass from the "21 personnel" grouping when he needed a big play...and he would get it.

After the jump, I'll show you my results from the first half of the Cowboys preseason game. I didn't chart the whole game, but only the plays in which Rivers and Volek were playing with the starters on offense.

Before I show the chart, I'll break down each personnel grouping for easy reference. It seems a bit overwhelming at first, but each personnel grouping is referred to by only two numbers: the number of RB's in the game and the number of TE's in the game. Since there are only 5 skill positions on the field (after you take away the 5 OL and 1 QB), you can also easily deduce the number of WR's in the game.

Personnel	RB	TE	WR
00	0	0	5
01	0	1	4
02	0	2	3
10	1	0	4
11	1	1	3
12	1	2	2
13	1	3	1
20	2	0	3
21	2	1	2
22	2	2	1
23	2	3	0

Something to note is that it doesn't matter where a player lines up in formation when charting by personnel grouping. When Randy McMichael and Mike Tolbert both line up in the backfield in Shotgun, it is still an "11 personnel" grouping because there is 1 RB and 1 TE. Incomplete passes and sacks get tallied in the "pass" column as well.

So now that you can easily reference the personnel groupings, I'll show you the results from the first half of the Cowboys preseason game and see what conclusions we can make from this.

Personnel	Run	Pass
00
01
02
10		1
11	3	14
12	3	3
13
20
21	5	4
22	3
23

The first thing that we notice is that Norv did not run any empty backfield sets. The second thing is that Norv called up 12 plays with 2 RB's in the backfield, and 24 plays with only 1 RB in the backfield. That's twice as many plays without a FB as with one.

Up until the last drive at the end of the first half, there had been 13 passes and only 1 run out of "11 personnel": that's roughly 93% pass from that personnel grouping. Since "11 personnel" has 3 WR's, we can guess that Norv will continue to call a lot of passes from 3 WR sets as he did last season.

Ideally, one would think that an offensive coordinator would strive for a 50/50 balance in their playcalling, but Norv doesn't always follow that line of thought.

If this were a regular season game, I would be very interested to see what Norv did from "11 personnel" in the second half of this game. Either he would call a lot of runs, thinking that the defensive coordinator would adjust to defend the pass since he called the vast majority of his pass plays from "11 personnel." Or, he might continue to call pass plays, if he thought that the defensive coordinator would know that he would anticipate his adjustment and do the opposite...you can see how quickly this turns into a chess match between coaching staffs.

Other than that, we can't read too much into these tendencies since it is preseason, but if this were the regular season, I would track not only the tendencies for the past week's game, but also a cumulative tally for the entire season to really analyze the trends.

What do you think?

So, I would like to get your opinions on if you would like to see this breakdown after every game, or if you think it is too much info that bores you. Please leave a comment on whether you would like to see breakdown this continue or not. I am going to continue to chart it regardless because I like to do it, but we would really like your opinions since we have been throwing around the idea of doing weekly breakdowns analyzing the past week's game like this article and Orz's article from yesterday.

If you want to give personnel charting a try, feel free to try it yourself. It is very low maintenance, just look at what personnel are in the game when the offense lines up, and keep that in mind then when the play is over just make a tally in the appropriate column. I can't take credit for the idea, I picked it up from a book written by Pat Kirwan, a former NFL GM/coach/scout and highly recommend his book as well if you want to learn more about the inner workings of teams in the NFL.

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I do this very thing (in a different way) for defense, even though I was always an offensive type of player…
It’s nice to know what to expect. It’s weird to people who watch games with me and they hear me say “run/pass/playaction” accurately before it actually happens. Maybe it’s my autism. In any case, I’ll read it. I also think there’s more to the 11 personnel being pass heavy. first- Norv knows that Rivers is a great passer and it doesn’t matter much that the defense is set to defend the pass. It’s how Belichick uses Brady to beat the Steelers. But when they start blitzing, then the tight end gets an easy 7 yards or the RB burns them on a screen. It’s like Norv wants the defense to try and stop Rivers and co because he knows they can’t. Plus, VJax and Crayton are good blockers.

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say s--- or f--- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."

by Superduperboltman on Aug 23, 2011 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

It's the classic debate; does scheme (playcalling) trump athleticism (execution), or the other way around?

by Orz on Aug 23, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I am about 50-50 on this

I believe that superior schemes and playcalls put athletes in a position to make plays. The transcendent coaches are those that can win without top athletes to execute; conversely, the transcendent special player makes extraordinary plays regularly when things breakdown.

Would Bill Walsh have had his success without Joe Montana or would Montana have gotten a bust in Canton without Walsh? My position is that they both needed each other to become recognized as great…

North Texas REALLY needs a Rubio's franchise.

by SDNativeinTX on Aug 23, 2011 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions

They definently are both needed. The only thing is it doesent necessarily need to be the HC. I am a firm believer that Spagnola won the Giants the SB and not Coughlin.

"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentation of their women." -The Barbarian

by traceSD on Aug 23, 2011 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

definitely.

If you defense holds the other team to 14 points when they normally averaged more than double that, that’s defensive coaching. Like when Ron Rivera gameplanned against the Pats last season. 6 freakin turnovers and the Pats still managed only 23 points???

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say s--- or f--- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."

by Superduperboltman on Aug 23, 2011 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Please keep this up

I found this very interesting, especially the point about Norv baiting the defense to adjust, then changing the play he runs from a set. That’s probably why we’re a 2nd half team. The key is to hang onto the ball and not dig ourselves a big hole in the 2st half.

by Cake or Death on Aug 23, 2011 2:40 PM PDT reply actions

Yes, very much a reason we are a second half team

and also a reason the first drive of the game often fizzles out. If you look closely at the first drive, pretty much every play is run from a different personnel grouping and Norv is doing that to see what type of defense the opposing defensive coordinator has decided to run against each personnel group in his initial game plan for that week. He and his staff will take note of that then decide how to attack the defense on the later drives. This is what you hear about when you hear about coaches “scripting” plays to run at the beginning of a game.

by jkvandal on Aug 23, 2011 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

that's what i hate the most...

do that stuff before you get there, and play “your game”.

The peanut gallery has spoken!!!

by gatesoftds on Aug 24, 2011 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions

Hell Yeah keep it coming

This is something I do for every football game I watch not just the Chargers. Its awesome having someone right it down and keeling track.

"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentation of their women." -The Barbarian

by traceSD on Aug 23, 2011 3:39 PM PDT reply actions

It is a cool system for book keeping

The passing tendancy out of 11 is pretty significant. I wonder how pas/run would look based on down and distance with the personnel groupings?

Even though this appears very balanced based upon grouping, for some reason (like SBD above) I can call run or pass before the snap on most Chargers plays. Well at least I could the last few years. Who knows about the future?

by Trendsearcher on Aug 23, 2011 3:48 PM PDT reply actions

We're gonna merge my data and JK's system, and put together a offensive stats voltron next week.

by Orz on Aug 23, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Are you talking about the proverbial super post?

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Aug 23, 2011 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Mechapost

"Los Angeles is like San Diego’s older, uglier sister that has herpes." - Justin Halpern

Gaslamp Ball Wiki - All you need to know about Gaslamp Ball, its members, and all the inside jokes
Bolts from the Blue

by creanium on Aug 23, 2011 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes please

Stuff like this is why I come to BFTB to get in-depth, educated, and Charger-centric analysis.

by Jobumoplata on Aug 23, 2011 3:57 PM PDT reply actions

Good work

Keep the breakdown coming. I found it very insightful.

All the way from Brisbane, Queensland.

by Aussiecharger on Aug 23, 2011 4:52 PM PDT reply actions

I know this post is for a preseason game

But if you did continue this into regular season, could we have a quarter by quarter breakdown? That’d be great.

Awesome work.

by Its Mikey!! on Aug 23, 2011 5:53 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

I think I might be able to arrange that

I was only planning on doing it by first half and second half though, not sure there will be that much of a difference between quarters, although we’ll certainly look into it.

by jkvandal on Aug 23, 2011 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions

That makes more sense actually

Quarterly might be a bit much.

by Its Mikey!! on Aug 24, 2011 3:18 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Keep it coming!

This is very interesting and I’d love to see how it plays out over the season

"Rob Johnson does not suck" --me
"Norf is straight up awesome on b-holes out there."--TheThinGwynn (sort of)
"I hate Rob Johnson's stupid face"-- sdchicken

by tonoxtono on Aug 23, 2011 5:53 PM PDT reply actions

very interesting

But, wouldn’t it further confuse the opposing D coordinator if he didn’t have “tendencies”?
Sure, I get it, he’s baiting them. And, perhaps down and distance further influence the pass to run ratio, which wasn’t mentioned. But, I don’t like tendencies, I like un-predictability. And norv is just too darned predictable.

by irishlad on Aug 23, 2011 6:13 PM PDT reply actions

Some personnel groups seem predictable right now

after just one half of preseason football, but there are others that are pretty well balanced.

Also, as mentioned earlier, sometimes when you have El Capitan at the helm it doesn’t even matter if you know what is coming or not.

by jkvandal on Aug 23, 2011 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions

It would be more interesting

if you guys can actually post it right after each Quarter of play. I understand somebody asked for a quarter by quarter breakdown, I would love that overall, but I’m asking if you guys can actually do it during the game for those who are around a comp, trying to find out the tendencies of play calling so far…I think it’s more exciting to see it posted throughout the game rather than later. Great post, keep it up!!

by john1 on Aug 23, 2011 9:46 PM PDT reply actions

I can certainly post it up in the comments if I see patterns

but I can’t figure out how to paste a table into the comments section. If we figure that out we can certainly make it happen.

by jkvandal on Aug 23, 2011 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions

john1 = Bill Belcheck?

you guys can actually do it during the game

Isn’t this how spygate got started? Loose lips sink ships!

Just joking. Chances are the opposition has a guy chart this stuff up real time too.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 24, 2011 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh yeah

I’m sure that whatever NFL teams are charting is way more complicated than this…they probably have it down to not only personnel groupings, but with specific personnel. For example, 11 personnel would have different options whether it be Mathews or Tolbert at RB or Gates or McMichael at TE because I’m sure that drastically changes the playcall for the defense.

by jkvandal on Aug 24, 2011 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Forgot to mention

I would love to see a breakdown for defense too. Matter of fact, I think I know less about defense than offense, so it would be nice to have an introduction to chargers 3-4 defense. For example, chargers run the 3-4 defense because it fits their personal which got blah blah blah for DE, blah blah CB, blah blah for LB’s, talk about their skill sets and what it allows the Defensive coordinator do during game day, against each team they play. that can be in one post, then during each game remind us of what u mentioned and show us how the personall affects the tendencies of play calling on D. Much appreciated for your guys hard work, but we expect more out of you :)

by john1 on Aug 23, 2011 9:52 PM PDT reply actions

I nominate Superduperboltman

by jkvandal on Aug 23, 2011 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Seconded, motion carried.

by Orz on Aug 23, 2011 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions

definately continue, and thanks for the rec for the book

The peanut gallery has spoken!!!

by gatesoftds on Aug 24, 2011 12:28 AM PDT reply actions

Yes!

I think it provides a different/better perspective on watching a game.

by borno on Aug 24, 2011 7:30 AM PDT reply actions

Just wondering but if you were able to figure out his first half baiting scheme

don’t you think that a team of coaches could as well? #predictable

"I promise you, we’re going to build a dictating, dominating, attacking defense. I’ve said it a million times. It’s not a slight on our offense, but we’re not going to win any world championship until we have that." - A.J. Smith

by njg425 on Aug 24, 2011 10:53 AM PDT reply actions

Absolutely I think they do

as a matter of fact, in the book that I referenced, the author says that is where the chess match comes into play. Both coaching staffs evaluate their tendencies and their opponent’s tendencies at halftime, then make adjustments based on the adjustments they would anticipate from the opposing coaching staff.

If Norv sees that he passed heavily out of 11 personnel and expects that an opposing defensive coordinator would call up pass defenses, then he would start to run the ball more. However, if he thinks than an opposing defensive coordinator would anticipate that adjustment and as a result call more run defenses, then maybe Norv would continue to be pass heavy.

I’m not by any means claiming to have this whole thing figured out, and this system is but one factor among many that influences playcalling, but it is one that is easy for us to track without too much effort.

by jkvandal on Aug 24, 2011 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right… and who is dead.
Vizzini: But it’s so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy’s? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You’ve made your decision then?
Vizzini: Not remotely. Because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.
Man in Black: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.
Vizzini: Wait till I get going! Now, where was I?
Man in Black: Australia.
Vizzini: Yes, Australia. And you must have suspected I would have known the powder’s origin, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You’re just stalling now.
Vizzini: You’d like to think that, wouldn’t you? You’ve beaten my giant, which means you’re exceptionally strong, so you could’ve put the poison in your own goblet, trusting on your strength to save you, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But, you’ve also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the poison as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You’re trying to trick me into giving away something. It won’t work.
Vizzini: IT HAS WORKED! YOU’VE GIVEN EVERYTHING AWAY! I KNOW WHERE THE POISON IS!
Man in Black: Then make your choice.
Vizzini: I will, and I choose – What in the world can that be?
Man in Black: [Vizzini gestures up and away from the table. Roberts looks. Vizzini swaps the goblets]
Man in Black: What? Where? I don’t see anything.
Vizzini: Well, I- I could have sworn I saw something. No matter. First, let’s drink. Me from my glass, and you from yours.
Man in Black, Vizzini: [Vizzini and the Man in Black drink]
Man in Black: You guessed wrong.
Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That’s what’s so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders – The most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” – but only slightly less well-known is this: “Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line”! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha…
Vizzini: [Vizzini stops suddenly, his smile frozen on his face and falls to the ground dead]
Buttercup: And to think, all that time it was your cup that was poisoned.
Man in Black: They were both poisoned. I spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder.

by Orz on Aug 24, 2011 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Precisely

by jkvandal on Aug 24, 2011 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions

We should make a project out of it.

Have several volunteers keeping track of specific aspects of the game, compiling several sets of statistics. It would be awesome if BFTB could offer data that we can sort by down, distance, time, field position, play-call, and outcome. You’d want someone at the game watching the WRs and CBs, because NFL films does a poor job of capturing coverage. I’d be happy to track something easy, like the offensive backfield, or TE number, ID, and alignment, or one side or the other of the OL or DL, or the usage of the OLBs, or man-in-motion ID and starting/ending position.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Aug 24, 2011 1:07 PM PDT reply actions

This is what I shared with JK and the other writers from the Cowboys game, it will evolve for the arizona game, as hinted above

linky

Feel free to try autofiltering for various stuff, we plan to reset it once the regular season starts, and build one monster sheet for the entire 2011 season.

by Orz on Aug 24, 2011 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions