The Quinn Conundrum

Not that we don’t need a difference making OLB, because we do. But this is a guy projected by most accounts to be a top 10 pick or possibly falling to Houston (who I believe is switching to a 3-4) at 11. Moving from 18 inside of 10 would likely be pretty expensive and cost us some of the picks we’ve accrued in the first 3 rounds.

I for one believe we NEED every one of those 5 picks. There are numerous holes we need tro plug and we finally have enough picks at the top of the draft to do it. We need to stay put and not sacrifice the volume of picks we have. tThe Patriots have done this the last 2 years and will likely be totally re-stocked with talent after this draft. We should be doing the same thing………………using all these picks to add quality depth at positions of need.

I think chances are excellent we will have an opportunity at 18 to draft either Watt, Wilkerson, or Jordan filling the need at DE.

And there are several guys who could be potential starters that will probably be there in the 2nd like Brooks Reed, Sam Acho, or Jabaal Sheard. Personally I like a 5 Tech DE in the 1st and Sam Acho in the 2nd at 50.

At the time of the conference title games, a whole lot of us were talking about the presence of difference makers on the defense for all 4 teams, that was the chargers greatest need. But a few months pass, and suddenly everyone forgets, and gets conservative with the picks, and gets leery of moving up.

You can get lucky and get a great player at any point in the draft, it just no accident that a really high percentage of the true difference makers tend to be really high picks. My opinion is that the chargers will find a really good player at pick 18, that will compliment this defense and it would be prudent decision. But to win the super bowl, a complimentary player is probably not what is needed, you need what Shawne Merriman was, or get lucky that Bob Sanders stayed healthy.

I saw Robert Quinn play, I thought he was top 3-5 pick, if you can get him at pick 10-12, that certainly sounds like a bargain, and worth the risk of trading up.

Problem is, the roster is not staying the same. If we can retain the most important players that are free agents, then I would definitely endorse a trade up. This is why the labor disagreement really hurts our team. We have so many important free agents that if we are able to retain the most important ones, we could go into the draft looking for that one impact guy. If we end up loosing a heap of them, then we will obviously need to retain our picks.

Pretending we have the same roster as last year then what to we need to upgrade? Pass rush is the priority. Run defense could use a boost. Depth at corner. Perhaps another receiver, but a similar injury spree occurring again would not be likely. Maybe an upgrade over Clary, but that really seems like a luxury to me. Another safety would be welcome too.

Fastforward to now. Safety could be in full crisis mode if Weddle leaves. If not, I think we are set. Sanders will clearly be an upgrade if he stays healthy. When the inevitable occurs, hopefully Stuckey will be ready to step in. If the season started with him as a starter it would be a little worrisome, but stepping in during the season could be an ideal situation for him.

At WR, hopefully Floyd does not go. It seems like there might be a good chance he does. Jackson, Crayton and Ajirotutu are not the worst set of receivers to have. Great QB’s can offset suspect receivers as we see every year with guys like Rivers, Manning and Brady. Smith likes to pick for the future though so there is probably a high chance that AJ takes one. I would not say it is a top priority necessarily even if Floyd leaves since we have PR.

At ILB I would be very surprised if we do not keep Burnett. He and Butler coupled could make a very good duo. Say we could keep Siler and his run stuffing skills then I really do not see this as a big need. Big ifs though.

RT will probably need to be addressed if Clary leaves. I would be surprised if he does.

We need to address OLB and DE unless we get a player from outside of the organization. Ditto for a nickelback most likely.

Sproles will be on another team but runningbacks are easily replaced for the most part.

Man, would it be nice if free agency occurs before the end of April or what?

So, bearing with me, say we keep Weddle, Burnett and Clary. That leaves the priorities as OLB, DE and then depth at WR, CB and perhaps OL still. Another DL would not be out of the question.

An impact player is a need. We are likely not getting that out of a DE in our defense. We need an upgrade though, but perhaps an Olshansky type of complimentary player is all that is needed for now, especially if we can get a great OLB.

The firepower we have is one 1, two 2’s and 3’s this year, plus we cannot rule out trading next year’s 2 as AJ has traded future picks there before.

Say that Quinn does indeed fall to something like 11 or 12. Teams like trading down more than trading up typically so we could perhaps get the better end on a basis of trade value. Something like packaging 18, 61, our future 2nd and maybe our 6 as we have a compensation pick there would be plenty of value considering the trade value chart.

What are we losing in the short term? A late 2nd, which AJ got in order to be flexible. A 6 who would probably not make the team too.

What does that translate to in terms of our needs? In the late 2nd we would be looking at depth at RT, ILB, WR and CB likely. Say we re-sign Clary and Burnett. Those needs drastically go down. We could still use an ILB, but the guys there would be Sheppard, Jones and Foster perhaps. What type of value do they provide over Siler and Butler? Probably very negligible.

At WR, there will be plenty of guys available in the 3rd. With Rivers this need is really truncated.

We also need depth at corner, but should also be able to find one in the 3rd.

We can still address DE at 50 as this is a deep draft, and could always trade up again for a player who falls a little.

Ultimately, this is all making a big assumption that we are going to retain our players. AJ has proven time and again he keeps the players we need. Even after they hit free agency and the need to increase the offer rises. See the contract given to Dielman. I firmly think AJ will not stand pat and allow our players to leave. I think this team will be aggressive in regards to retaining them.

So by trading up for a potential game changer at OLB, we give up the ability to draft a depth player, who could likely be had a round later in the draft, or a player who would not provide an upgrade over one of our mid level free agents that would probably not need a huge offer to retain.

If the lockout is thrown out by a judge so that last year’s rules apply, we would only likely be at risk of losing Burnett too.

What it comes down to is we will likely be able to easily withstand the impact of losing a 2nd round pick. I think doing that for a player who can take the defense to an elite level is well worth it.