2011 NFL Power Rankings Analysis: Week 16

A Chargers hat.

The Chargers are on a roll, eh? Everything the Chargers needed to happen this past week, did happen. Their playoff hopes are up to a staggering 14.67%. Could this be the start of another magical run by Norv and the boys? Who knows, but it still would be nice to see the Broncos continue to be dominated by other teams; let's hope that trend continues too.

With an absolutely dominating performance against the Ravens — dubbed the "Best team in teh AFC" and "Best Defense in the League" by more than a few pundits — you'd think the Chargers would be skyrocketing up the charts, wouldn't you? Well, I wouldn't call it skyrocketing, but climbing an average of 3.1 spots in the subjective rankings this week, they are certainly heading upwards.

Also of note this week, the Chargers have fallen off the "Disappointments" list; they've been replaced by the Chicago Bears. But I suppose you're going to underperform a bit when you lose your starting quarterback.

Notable Quotes

Team Efficiency

Every AFC West team is still in playoff contention, and San Diego's recent surge has them ranked the highest out of the bunch. Oakland isn't far behind, but division leader Denver is ranked 25th this week. In our hearts, Denver is clearly number one.

Sports Illustrated

This Chargers late-season run should only underline how much San Diego underachieved during the course of its six-game losing streak, not serve to put a happy face on a 9-7 near-miss and protect the status quo. This is the Chargers team that should have shown up all season, not just at the beginning and the end.

SBNation

Here come the Chargers. After apparently taking half the season off, they're playing like they usually do in December. The question is whether it's come too late.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 12.8750
NFC North 15.0313
AFC East 15.3906
NFC South 15.7344
NFC East 16.7500
AFC West 17.0625
NFC West 17.7188
AFC South 21.4375

Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 16 Average Difference
SF 25.667 3.800 21.867
DEN 29.000 10.300 18.700
CIN 30.778 12.700 18.078
SEA 24.889 16.600 8.289
CAR 30.889 23.400 7.489

Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 16 Average Difference
IND 11.778 31.800 -20.022
TB 12.333 28.800 -16.467
STL 17.667 31.200 -13.533
PHI 6.222 18.000 -11.778
CHI 13.889 21.700 -7.811

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Average Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000
Saints 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2.300 0.458
Patriots 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 3.100 0.700
49ers 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 2 3 3.800 0.980
Ravens 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5.000 0.000
Steelers 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 6 5.900 0.700
Falcons 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7.400 0.490
Texans 7 7 6 10 9 8 8 10 7 8 8.000 1.265
Lions 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 8.700 0.458
Broncos 11 10 10 9 10 11 11 9 10 12 10.300 0.900
Cowboys 10 11 13 11 11 10 10 11 13 11 11.100 1.044
Jets 12 12 11 12 15 15 12 12 12 13 12.600 1.281
Bengals 13 13 14 13 12 12 13 13 14 10 12.700 1.100
Giants 16 18 12 14 17 13 14 14 15 14 14.700 1.735
Chargers 14 16 19 15 13 14 15 15 11 15 14.700 1.952
Seahawks 15 15 16 18 16 16 17 18 19 16 16.600 1.281
Cardinals 17 14 18 19 18 18 16 19 18 19 17.600 1.497
Eagles 18 17 17 17 20 17 19 17 21 17 18.000 1.414
Raiders 19 19 15 21 19 20 20 21 17 18 18.900 1.758
Chiefs 22 26 22 16 14 23 23 16 20 21 20.300 3.607
Titans 20 21 20 24 23 19 18 24 16 20 20.500 2.460
Bears 21 20 21 22 24 21 21 22 23 22 21.700 1.100
Dolphins 23 24 24 20 21 22 22 20 22 24 22.200 1.470
Panthers 24 22 25 23 22 24 24 23 24 23 23.400 0.917
Redskins 25 23 23 25 26 25 25 25 25 25 24.700 0.900
Bills 26 25 27 27 25 26 26 27 28 26 26.300 0.900
Browns 28 27 29 26 28 28 27 26 26 27 27.200 0.980
Jaguars 27 29 26 29 27 27 28 29 27 28 27.700 1.005
Buccaneers 29 30 28 28 29 29 29 28 29 29 28.800 0.600
Vikings 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29.800 0.600
Rams 31 31 31 32 31 31 31 32 31 31 31.200 0.400
Colts 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 31 32 32 31.800 0.400

Observations:

  • Packers retain the top spot, despite losing to the lowly Chiefs. Said Chiefs, however, did climb the rankings this week after beating the top team in the NFL.
  • The get knocked down by everyone across the board, by about 3 spots. Which is coincidentally how many spots the Chargers rose this week.
  • Also filed in the "Ranking Injustices" folder: The 49ers being ranked 2 spots below the Steelers by Pro Football Weekly

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Average Standard Deviation
Ravens 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5.000 0.000
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000
Rams 31 31 31 32 31 31 31 32 31 31 31.200 0.400
Colts 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 31 32 32 31.800 0.400
Saints 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2.300 0.458
Lions 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 8.700 0.458
Falcons 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7.400 0.490
Buccaneers 29 30 28 28 29 29 29 28 29 29 28.800 0.600
Vikings 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29.800 0.600
Patriots 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 3.100 0.700
Steelers 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 6 5.900 0.700
Bills 26 25 27 27 25 26 26 27 28 26 26.300 0.900
Broncos 11 10 10 9 10 11 11 9 10 12 10.300 0.900
Redskins 25 23 23 25 26 25 25 25 25 25 24.700 0.900
Panthers 24 22 25 23 22 24 24 23 24 23 23.400 0.917
Browns 28 27 29 26 28 28 27 26 26 27 27.200 0.980
49ers 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 2 3 3.800 0.980
Jaguars 27 29 26 29 27 27 28 29 27 28 27.700 1.005
Cowboys 10 11 13 11 11 10 10 11 13 11 11.100 1.044
Bengals 13 13 14 13 12 12 13 13 14 10 12.700 1.100
Bears 21 20 21 22 24 21 21 22 23 22 21.700 1.100
Texans 7 7 6 10 9 8 8 10 7 8 8.000 1.265
Jets 12 12 11 12 15 15 12 12 12 13 12.600 1.281
Seahawks 15 15 16 18 16 16 17 18 19 16 16.600 1.281
Eagles 18 17 17 17 20 17 19 17 21 17 18.000 1.414
Dolphins 23 24 24 20 21 22 22 20 22 24 22.200 1.470
Cardinals 17 14 18 19 18 18 16 19 18 19 17.600 1.497
Giants 16 18 12 14 17 13 14 14 15 14 14.700 1.735
Raiders 19 19 15 21 19 20 20 21 17 18 18.900 1.758
Chargers 14 16 19 15 13 14 15 15 11 15 14.700 1.952
Titans 20 21 20 24 23 19 18 24 16 20 20.500 2.460
Chiefs 22 26 22 16 14 23 23 16 20 21 20.300 3.607

Observations:

  • Wow, the Ravens are a unanimous number-5.
  • Thanks to Donny Banks at Sports Illustrated, the Colts and Rams are no longer unanimous 32 and 31, respectively. And given their recent performances, I find it difficult to argue with him, heh.
  • By beating Green Bay, the Chiefs really shook things up.
  • Chargers are a little inconsistently-ranked. But, you can thank CBS for being the outlier by ranking them 19th when everyone else has them ranked 13-16.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Average Standard Deviation
Packers 3 5 2 1 1 1 2.167 1.463
Patriots 2 4 1 2 7 4 3.333 1.972
Saints 7 3 3 4 2 7 4.333 1.972
Texans 4 1 9 7 4 5 5.000 2.517
Steelers 1 2 5 5 6 11 5.000 3.215
49ers 6 13 4 3 3 2 5.167 3.716
Ravens 8 9 6 6 5 3 6.167 1.951
Falcons 5 12 7 9 16 6 9.167 3.804
Lions 13 10 12 8 8 8 9.833 2.034
Cowboys 14 7 16 11 11 9 11.333 2.981
Jets 10 16 13 10 10 10 11.500 2.291
Eagles 9 6 14 16 27 15 14.500 6.602
Chargers 12 11 15 12 24 13 14.500 4.425
Seahawks 11 24 11 18 17 14 15.833 4.525
Bengals 21 15 18 13 13 20 16.667 3.197
Giants 17 8 20 17 20 19 16.833 4.140
Broncos 20 25 8 14 9 27 17.167 7.381
Bears 15 17 22 15 23 12 17.333 3.944
Dolphins 16 18 19 21 14 17 17.500 2.217
Titans 19 21 25 20 12 18 19.167 3.891
Raiders 22 14 24 19 15 23 19.500 3.862
Panthers 18 23 21 25 26 16 21.500 3.594
Redskins 23 19 23 26 19 21 21.833 2.478
Cardinals 27 22 10 22 30 22 22.167 6.229
Chiefs 24 27 17 24 22 29 23.833 3.804
Bills 28 20 29 23 21 28 24.833 3.625
Browns 25 26 27 29 18 24 24.833 3.436
Jaguars 26 28 26 27 25 26 26.333 0.943
Vikings 30 32 28 30 29 25 29.000 2.160
Buccaneers 29 30 32 28 28 31 29.667 1.491
Rams 31 29 30 31 32 30 30.500 0.957
Colts 32 31 31 32 31 32 31.500 0.500

Observations:

  • Chargers and Eagles are tied at 14.5.
  • The Seahawks are quietly doing well.
  • Despite what they showed us in the dark on Monday — no that wasn't a Big Ben joke — the Steelers are still playing quite well.
  • The stats sites still need to find a way to quantify "Tebow Factor" because half of them have the Broncos ranked in the bottom-3rd of the league.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Average Standard Deviation
Colts 32 31 31 32 31 32 31.500 0.500
Jaguars 26 28 26 27 25 26 26.333 0.943
Rams 31 29 30 31 32 30 30.500 0.957
Packers 3 5 2 1 1 1 2.167 1.463
Buccaneers 29 30 32 28 28 31 29.667 1.491
Ravens 8 9 6 6 5 3 6.167 1.951
Saints 7 3 3 4 2 7 4.333 1.972
Patriots 2 4 1 2 7 4 3.333 1.972
Lions 13 10 12 8 8 8 9.833 2.034
Vikings 30 32 28 30 29 25 29.000 2.160
Dolphins 16 18 19 21 14 17 17.500 2.217
Jets 10 16 13 10 10 10 11.500 2.291
Redskins 23 19 23 26 19 21 21.833 2.478
Texans 4 1 9 7 4 5 5.000 2.517
Cowboys 14 7 16 11 11 9 11.333 2.981
Bengals 21 15 18 13 13 20 16.667 3.197
Steelers 1 2 5 5 6 11 5.000 3.215
Browns 25 26 27 29 18 24 24.833 3.436
Panthers 18 23 21 25 26 16 21.500 3.594
Bills 28 20 29 23 21 28 24.833 3.625
49ers 6 13 4 3 3 2 5.167 3.716
Chiefs 24 27 17 24 22 29 23.833 3.804
Falcons 5 12 7 9 16 6 9.167 3.804
Raiders 22 14 24 19 15 23 19.500 3.862
Titans 19 21 25 20 12 18 19.167 3.891
Bears 15 17 22 15 23 12 17.333 3.944
Giants 17 8 20 17 20 19 16.833 4.140
Chargers 12 11 15 12 24 13 14.500 4.425
Seahawks 11 24 11 18 17 14 15.833 4.525
Cardinals 27 22 10 22 30 22 22.167 6.229
Eagles 9 6 14 16 27 15 14.500 6.602
Broncos 20 25 8 14 9 27 17.167 7.381

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Packers 1.000 2.167 1.583 1.059 1.167
Patriots 3.100 3.333 3.217 1.333 0.233
Saints 2.300 4.333 3.317 1.600 2.033
49ers 3.800 5.167 4.483 2.493 1.367
Steelers 5.900 5.000 5.450 2.091 -0.900
Ravens 5.000 6.167 5.583 1.321 1.167
Texans 8.000 5.000 6.500 2.342 -3.000
Falcons 7.400 9.167 8.283 2.512 1.767
Lions 8.700 9.833 9.267 1.409 1.133
Cowboys 11.100 11.333 11.217 2.007 0.233
Jets 12.600 11.500 12.050 1.810 -1.100
Broncos 10.300 17.167 13.733 5.656 6.867
Chargers 14.700 14.500 14.600 3.120 -0.200
Bengals 12.700 16.667 14.683 2.877 3.967
Giants 14.700 16.833 15.767 3.062 2.133
Seahawks 16.600 15.833 16.217 2.973 -0.767
Eagles 18.000 14.500 16.250 4.524 -3.500
Raiders 18.900 19.500 19.200 2.759 0.600
Bears 21.700 17.333 19.517 3.325 -4.367
Titans 20.500 19.167 19.833 3.143 -1.333
Dolphins 22.200 17.500 19.850 2.893 -4.700
Cardinals 17.600 22.167 19.883 4.565 4.567
Chiefs 20.300 23.833 22.067 4.060 3.533
Panthers 23.400 21.500 22.450 2.493 -1.900
Redskins 24.700 21.833 23.267 2.176 -2.867
Bills 26.300 24.833 25.567 2.437 -1.467
Browns 27.200 24.833 26.017 2.518 -2.367
Jaguars 27.700 26.333 27.017 1.184 -1.367
Buccaneers 28.800 29.667 29.233 1.111 0.867
Vikings 29.800 29.000 29.400 1.458 -0.800
Rams 31.200 30.500 30.850 0.747 -0.700
Colts 31.800 31.500 31.650 0.464 -0.300

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Colts 31.800 31.500 31.650 0.464 -0.300
Rams 31.200 30.500 30.850 0.747 -0.700
Packers 1.000 2.167 1.583 1.059 1.167
Buccaneers 28.800 29.667 29.233 1.111 0.867
Jaguars 27.700 26.333 27.017 1.184 -1.367
Ravens 5.000 6.167 5.583 1.321 1.167
Patriots 3.100 3.333 3.217 1.333 0.233
Lions 8.700 9.833 9.267 1.409 1.133
Vikings 29.800 29.000 29.400 1.458 -0.800
Saints 2.300 4.333 3.317 1.600 2.033
Jets 12.600 11.500 12.050 1.810 -1.100
Cowboys 11.100 11.333 11.217 2.007 0.233
Steelers 5.900 5.000 5.450 2.091 -0.900
Redskins 24.700 21.833 23.267 2.176 -2.867
Texans 8.000 5.000 6.500 2.342 -3.000
Bills 26.300 24.833 25.567 2.437 -1.467
Panthers 23.400 21.500 22.450 2.493 -1.900
49ers 3.800 5.167 4.483 2.493 1.367
Falcons 7.400 9.167 8.283 2.512 1.767
Browns 27.200 24.833 26.017 2.518 -2.367
Raiders 18.900 19.500 19.200 2.759 0.600
Bengals 12.700 16.667 14.683 2.877 3.967
Dolphins 22.200 17.500 19.850 2.893 -4.700
Seahawks 16.600 15.833 16.217 2.973 -0.767
Giants 14.700 16.833 15.767 3.062 2.133
Chargers 14.700 14.500 14.600 3.120 -0.200
Titans 20.500 19.167 19.833 3.143 -1.333
Bears 21.700 17.333 19.517 3.325 -4.367
Chiefs 20.300 23.833 22.067 4.060 3.533
Eagles 18.000 14.500 16.250 4.524 -3.500
Cardinals 17.600 22.167 19.883 4.565 4.567
Broncos 10.300 17.167 13.733 5.656 6.867

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Broncos 10.300 17.167 13.733 5.656 6.867
Cardinals 17.600 22.167 19.883 4.565 4.567
Bengals 12.700 16.667 14.683 2.877 3.967
Chiefs 20.300 23.833 22.067 4.060 3.533
Giants 14.700 16.833 15.767 3.062 2.133
Saints 2.300 4.333 3.317 1.600 2.033
Falcons 7.400 9.167 8.283 2.512 1.767
49ers 3.800 5.167 4.483 2.493 1.367
Ravens 5.000 6.167 5.583 1.321 1.167
Packers 1.000 2.167 1.583 1.059 1.167
Lions 8.700 9.833 9.267 1.409 1.133
Buccaneers 28.800 29.667 29.233 1.111 0.867
Raiders 18.900 19.500 19.200 2.759 0.600
Patriots 3.100 3.333 3.217 1.333 0.233
Cowboys 11.100 11.333 11.217 2.007 0.233
Chargers 14.700 14.500 14.600 3.120 -0.200
Colts 31.800 31.500 31.650 0.464 -0.300
Rams 31.200 30.500 30.850 0.747 -0.700
Seahawks 16.600 15.833 16.217 2.973 -0.767
Vikings 29.800 29.000 29.400 1.458 -0.800
Steelers 5.900 5.000 5.450 2.091 -0.900
Jets 12.600 11.500 12.050 1.810 -1.100
Titans 20.500 19.167 19.833 3.143 -1.333
Jaguars 27.700 26.333 27.017 1.184 -1.367
Bills 26.300 24.833 25.567 2.437 -1.467
Panthers 23.400 21.500 22.450 2.493 -1.900
Browns 27.200 24.833 26.017 2.518 -2.367
Redskins 24.700 21.833 23.267 2.176 -2.867
Texans 8.000 5.000 6.500 2.342 -3.000
Eagles 18.000 14.500 16.250 4.524 -3.500
Bears 21.700 17.333 19.517 3.325 -4.367
Dolphins 22.200 17.500 19.850 2.893 -4.700

Observations:

  • Why does it seem like the AFC West is the perennial heir to the "Most Overrated Team" crown? This week it's the Broncos again, by a lot.
  • Cardinals, Bengals and Chiefs are clustered together in the "solidly overrated" teams.
  • The Raiders are that mediocre.
  • Chargers are only slightly underrated
  • Once again the Dolphins are the most underrated team. Chicago is not far behind at all.

Sources

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