2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 15

Well would you look at that: the Chargers have strung together a nice little two-game winning streak. What's more, they're actually blowing-out the teams they're supposed to; and the rankings this week reflect the glimmer of hope in San Diego.

However, enough about these underperformers. The big story this week is TEBOW. You think it's bad living in San Diego having to hear about him? Try actually living in Denver. As you'll see shortly, everybody and their mother has hitched their wagon to Tebow; however, the stats don't quite back it up. Maybe all the objective sites need to add in a metric for "Tebow Factor" or something along those lines, because frankly, the Broncos still aren't that great when just looking at their performances objectively.

Ahh crap, even I can't get away from talking about him. Okay, back to the stats. This week, the Chargers take on the Baltimore Ravens. Going by the rankings alone, this will be their biggest test since playing the Packers, and a bigger test than when they played New England. The Chargers are climbing the rankings again, after bottoming out in the upper-20s. After it looked like the AFC West was going to be a two-team race between the Raiders and Broncos, well now the Chargers and Raiders appear to be going in opposite directions. There is still hope, but it's going to be ridiculously frustrating from many different angles if the Chargers end up winning out, but miss the playoffs.

Notable Quotes

ESPN

Back to life, but it's likely too late for them to salvage the season and prevent overhaul moves.

Fox Sports

Believe it or not, the Chargers still have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. With the Broncos playing their toughest opponent since Tim Tebow took over as starting QB, and the Raiders' continuous downward spiral, don't count out the Chargers. It will be a long shot, but it's not uncommon for the Chargers to find a way to pull this type of scenario off.

Sports Illustrated

Sorry Philip Rivers and your fellow Norv-men. You woke up at least one week too late this time. Looks like you've all been Tebowed. But join the crowd. And hey, it's almost a status symbol at this point.

On to the numbers!

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 12.0938
NFC North 14.2813
AFC East 15.0313
NFC South 16.1875
NFC East 17.9688
AFC West 18.1250
AFC South 19.0469
NFC West 19.2656

Wow, even with the Colts and Jaguars in the same division, the AFC South couldn't quite match the NFC West's futility.

Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 15 Average Difference
DEN 29.000 9.400 19.600
SF 25.667 6.200 19.467
CIN 30.778 15.600 15.178
TEN 23.556 13.800 9.756
CAR 30.889 23.900 6.989

With the 49ers slipping a bit lately, Denver takes over the top spot as the biggest surprise thus far this season.

Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 15 Average Difference
IND 11.778 32.000 -20.222
TB 12.333 27.900 -15.567
PHI 6.222 20.800 -14.578
STL 17.667 31.000 -13.333
SDG 7.000 17.800 -10.800

Woot! The Chargers have almost fallen off the "disappointments" list.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Average Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000
Ravens 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2.600 0.490
Saints 3 4 5 2 2 5 3 2 2 2 3.000 1.183
Steelers 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4.000 0.447
Patriots 5 2 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 4.800 1.077
49ers 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 6.200 0.600
Texans 7 6 3 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6.400 1.200
Falcons 8 10 8 8 8 9 9 8 10 8 8.600 0.800
Jets 10 9 10 9 10 10 8 9 9 10 9.400 0.663
Broncos 9 8 9 11 9 8 10 11 8 11 9.400 1.200
Giants 12 12 12 10 12 11 11 10 12 9 11.100 1.044
Lions 11 11 11 14 11 12 13 14 11 12 12.000 1.183
Cowboys 14 15 13 12 13 13 12 12 14 14 13.200 0.980
Titans 13 13 15 13 14 15 14 13 13 15 13.800 0.872
Bengals 15 14 16 17 16 16 15 17 17 13 15.600 1.281
Raiders 16 19 14 15 19 14 18 15 16 16 16.200 1.778
Bears 17 18 17 19 20 18 16 19 15 17 17.600 1.428
Chargers 18 20 21 16 15 17 19 16 18 18 17.800 1.778
Cardinals 19 16 20 21 17 20 17 21 19 19 18.900 1.640
Seahawks 20 17 18 22 18 19 20 22 20 20 19.600 1.562
Eagles 21 21 19 18 21 25 21 18 23 21 20.800 2.040
Dolphins 23 24 24 20 22 21 23 20 22 24 22.300 1.487
Bills 22 25 25 25 23 24 22 25 21 23 23.500 1.432
Panthers 24 23 26 23 24 23 25 23 26 22 23.900 1.300
Chiefs 25 30 23 29 26 22 24 29 24 25 25.700 2.610
Jaguars 26 26 22 24 27 26 27 24 29 26 25.700 1.847
Redskins 27 22 29 28 25 28 26 28 27 27 26.700 1.900
Browns 29 27 28 26 28 27 28 26 28 28 27.500 0.922
Buccaneers 28 29 27 27 29 29 29 27 25 29 27.900 1.300
Vikings 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29.800 0.600
Rams 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31.000 0.000
Colts 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

  • Broncos in the top 10? Blech.
  • Chargers are up 3 spots this week. Raiders drop 3 spots.
  • The bottom three teams was almost a unanimous placement.
  • The Ravens? *gulp*

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Average Standard Deviation
Rams 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31.000 0.000
Colts 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000
Steelers 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4.000 0.447
Ravens 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2.600 0.490
49ers 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 6.200 0.600
Vikings 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29.800 0.600
Jets 10 9 10 9 10 10 8 9 9 10 9.400 0.663
Falcons 8 10 8 8 8 9 9 8 10 8 8.600 0.800
Titans 13 13 15 13 14 15 14 13 13 15 13.800 0.872
Browns 29 27 28 26 28 27 28 26 28 28 27.500 0.922
Cowboys 14 15 13 12 13 13 12 12 14 14 13.200 0.980
Giants 12 12 12 10 12 11 11 10 12 9 11.100 1.044
Patriots 5 2 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 4.800 1.077
Saints 3 4 5 2 2 5 3 2 2 2 3.000 1.183
Lions 11 11 11 14 11 12 13 14 11 12 12.000 1.183
Broncos 9 8 9 11 9 8 10 11 8 11 9.400 1.200
Texans 7 6 3 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6.400 1.200
Bengals 15 14 16 17 16 16 15 17 17 13 15.600 1.281
Panthers 24 23 26 23 24 23 25 23 26 22 23.900 1.300
Buccaneers 28 29 27 27 29 29 29 27 25 29 27.900 1.300
Bears 17 18 17 19 20 18 16 19 15 17 17.600 1.428
Bills 22 25 25 25 23 24 22 25 21 23 23.500 1.432
Dolphins 23 24 24 20 22 21 23 20 22 24 22.300 1.487
Seahawks 20 17 18 22 18 19 20 22 20 20 19.600 1.562
Cardinals 19 16 20 21 17 20 17 21 19 19 18.900 1.640
Raiders 16 19 14 15 19 14 18 15 16 16 16.200 1.778
Chargers 18 20 21 16 15 17 19 16 18 18 17.800 1.778
Jaguars 26 26 22 24 27 26 27 24 29 26 25.700 1.847
Redskins 27 22 29 28 25 28 26 28 27 27 26.700 1.900
Eagles 21 21 19 18 21 25 21 18 23 21 20.800 2.040
Chiefs 25 30 23 29 26 22 24 29 24 25 25.700 2.610

Observations:

  • Wow, I can't believe how much the Chiefs are all over the map.
  • Chargers and Raiders are equally inconsistently-ranked.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Average Standard Deviation
Packers 3 3 1 1 2 3 2.167 0.898
Texans 2 1 3 2 4 2 2.333 0.943
Ravens 4 7 4 3 1 1 3.333 2.055
Steelers 1 2 2 5 6 11 4.500 3.403
Saints 8 5 5 4 3 9 5.667 2.134
Patriots 5 4 6 6 13 5 6.500 2.986
49ers 9 17 7 7 5 4 8.167 4.259
Falcons 6 11 9 10 9 6 8.500 1.893
Jets 7 12 10 9 14 7 9.833 2.544
Lions 12 10 14 8 7 8 9.833 2.478
Giants 13 6 13 17 12 16 12.833 3.532
Bears 10 15 16 11 17 10 13.167 2.911
Bengals 15 13 12 12 10 20 13.667 3.197
Titans 11 18 15 13 16 13 14.333 2.285
Cowboys 14 8 21 15 19 12 14.833 4.298
Chargers 16 14 19 16 20 15 16.667 2.134
Broncos 20 24 8 14 8 27 16.833 7.403
Eagles 17 9 20 19 27 18 18.333 5.281
Raiders 22 16 17 18 15 22 18.333 2.749
Seahawks 19 25 18 21 11 17 18.500 4.233
Dolphins 18 20 22 20 21 14 19.167 2.609
Cardinals 27 22 11 23 25 25 22.167 5.241
Panthers 21 23 26 25 26 19 23.333 2.625
Browns 25 27 25 29 18 24 24.667 3.399
Jaguars 23 26 24 24 28 23 24.667 1.795
Bills 29 19 29 22 22 28 24.833 3.976
Redskins 24 21 27 28 30 26 26.000 2.887
Chiefs 26 31 23 26 23 29 26.333 2.925
Vikings 28 28 28 30 24 21 26.500 3.041
Buccaneers 30 30 31 27 29 30 29.500 1.258
Rams 31 29 30 31 31 31 30.500 0.764
Colts 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

  • Wow, Texans are dangerously close to taking the top spot away from the undefeated Packers.
  • Ravens are good, but vulnerable.
  • Hmph, Broncos are ranked below the Chargers now. Guess there's still no objective way to account for the "Tebow Factor."

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Average Standard Deviation
Colts 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000
Rams 31 29 30 31 31 31 30.500 0.764
Packers 3 3 1 1 2 3 2.167 0.898
Texans 2 1 3 2 4 2 2.333 0.943
Buccaneers 30 30 31 27 29 30 29.500 1.258
Jaguars 23 26 24 24 28 23 24.667 1.795
Falcons 6 11 9 10 9 6 8.500 1.893
Ravens 4 7 4 3 1 1 3.333 2.055
Saints 8 5 5 4 3 9 5.667 2.134
Chargers 16 14 19 16 20 15 16.667 2.134
Titans 11 18 15 13 16 13 14.333 2.285
Lions 12 10 14 8 7 8 9.833 2.478
Jets 7 12 10 9 14 7 9.833 2.544
Dolphins 18 20 22 20 21 14 19.167 2.609
Panthers 21 23 26 25 26 19 23.333 2.625
Raiders 22 16 17 18 15 22 18.333 2.749
Redskins 24 21 27 28 30 26 26.000 2.887
Bears 10 15 16 11 17 10 13.167 2.911
Chiefs 26 31 23 26 23 29 26.333 2.925
Patriots 5 4 6 6 13 5 6.500 2.986
Vikings 28 28 28 30 24 21 26.500 3.041
Bengals 15 13 12 12 10 20 13.667 3.197
Browns 25 27 25 29 18 24 24.667 3.399
Steelers 1 2 2 5 6 11 4.500 3.403
Giants 13 6 13 17 12 16 12.833 3.532
Bills 29 19 29 22 22 28 24.833 3.976
Seahawks 19 25 18 21 11 17 18.500 4.233
49ers 9 17 7 7 5 4 8.167 4.259
Cowboys 14 8 21 15 19 12 14.833 4.298
Cardinals 27 22 11 23 25 25 22.167 5.241
Eagles 17 9 20 19 27 18 18.333 5.281
Broncos 20 24 8 14 8 27 16.833 7.403

Observations:

  • Wow, way to overachjeve, Denver.
  • Objective rankings sites tend to not agree with each other at all. Well, except when it comes to the Colts: they stink.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Packers 1.000 2.167 1.583 0.788 1.167
Ravens 2.600 3.333 2.967 1.364 0.733
Steelers 4.000 4.500 4.250 2.128 0.500
Saints 3.000 5.667 4.333 2.062 2.667
Texans 6.400 2.333 4.367 2.260 -4.067
Patriots 4.800 6.500 5.650 2.179 1.700
49ers 6.200 8.167 7.183 2.817 1.967
Falcons 8.600 8.500 8.550 1.321 -0.100
Jets 9.400 9.833 9.617 1.657 0.433
Lions 12.000 9.833 10.917 2.068 -2.167
Giants 11.100 12.833 11.967 2.462 1.733
Broncos 9.400 16.833 13.117 5.865 7.433
Cowboys 13.200 14.833 14.017 2.855 1.633
Titans 13.800 14.333 14.067 1.581 0.533
Bengals 15.600 13.667 14.633 2.395 -1.933
Bears 17.600 13.167 15.383 3.010 -4.433
Chargers 17.800 16.667 17.233 1.996 -1.133
Raiders 16.200 18.333 17.267 2.424 2.133
Seahawks 19.600 18.500 19.050 2.920 -1.100
Eagles 20.800 18.333 19.567 3.806 -2.467
Cardinals 18.900 22.167 20.533 3.806 3.267
Dolphins 22.300 19.167 20.733 2.497 -3.133
Panthers 23.900 23.333 23.617 1.927 -0.567
Bills 23.500 24.833 24.167 2.761 1.333
Jaguars 25.700 24.667 25.183 1.895 -1.033
Chiefs 25.700 26.333 26.017 2.749 0.633
Browns 27.500 24.667 26.083 2.597 -2.833
Redskins 26.700 26.000 26.350 2.344 -0.700
Vikings 29.800 26.500 28.150 2.499 -3.300
Buccaneers 27.900 29.500 28.700 1.500 1.600
Rams 31.000 30.500 30.750 0.527 -0.500
Colts 32.000 32.000 32.000 0.000 0.000

Observations:

  • Looks about right ...

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Colts 32.000 32.000 32.000 0.000 0.000
Rams 31.000 30.500 30.750 0.527 -0.500
Packers 1.000 2.167 1.583 0.788 1.167
Falcons 8.600 8.500 8.550 1.321 -0.100
Ravens 2.600 3.333 2.967 1.364 0.733
Buccaneers 27.900 29.500 28.700 1.500 1.600
Titans 13.800 14.333 14.067 1.581 0.533
Jets 9.400 9.833 9.617 1.657 0.433
Jaguars 25.700 24.667 25.183 1.895 -1.033
Panthers 23.900 23.333 23.617 1.927 -0.567
Chargers 17.800 16.667 17.233 1.996 -1.133
Saints 3.000 5.667 4.333 2.062 2.667
Lions 12.000 9.833 10.917 2.068 -2.167
Steelers 4.000 4.500 4.250 2.128 0.500
Patriots 4.800 6.500 5.650 2.179 1.700
Texans 6.400 2.333 4.367 2.260 -4.067
Redskins 26.700 26.000 26.350 2.344 -0.700
Bengals 15.600 13.667 14.633 2.395 -1.933
Raiders 16.200 18.333 17.267 2.424 2.133
Giants 11.100 12.833 11.967 2.462 1.733
Dolphins 22.300 19.167 20.733 2.497 -3.133
Vikings 29.800 26.500 28.150 2.499 -3.300
Browns 27.500 24.667 26.083 2.597 -2.833
Chiefs 25.700 26.333 26.017 2.749 0.633
Bills 23.500 24.833 24.167 2.761 1.333
49ers 6.200 8.167 7.183 2.817 1.967
Cowboys 13.200 14.833 14.017 2.855 1.633
Seahawks 19.600 18.500 19.050 2.920 -1.100
Bears 17.600 13.167 15.383 3.010 -4.433
Cardinals 18.900 22.167 20.533 3.806 3.267
Eagles 20.800 18.333 19.567 3.806 -2.467
Broncos 9.400 16.833 13.117 5.865 7.433

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Broncos 9.400 16.833 13.117 5.865 7.433
Cardinals 18.900 22.167 20.533 3.806 3.267
Saints 3.000 5.667 4.333 2.062 2.667
Raiders 16.200 18.333 17.267 2.424 2.133
49ers 6.200 8.167 7.183 2.817 1.967
Giants 11.100 12.833 11.967 2.462 1.733
Patriots 4.800 6.500 5.650 2.179 1.700
Cowboys 13.200 14.833 14.017 2.855 1.633
Buccaneers 27.900 29.500 28.700 1.500 1.600
Bills 23.500 24.833 24.167 2.761 1.333
Packers 1.000 2.167 1.583 0.788 1.167
Ravens 2.600 3.333 2.967 1.364 0.733
Chiefs 25.700 26.333 26.017 2.749 0.633
Titans 13.800 14.333 14.067 1.581 0.533
Steelers 4.000 4.500 4.250 2.128 0.500
Jets 9.400 9.833 9.617 1.657 0.433
Colts 32.000 32.000 32.000 0.000 0.000
Falcons 8.600 8.500 8.550 1.321 -0.100
Rams 31.000 30.500 30.750 0.527 -0.500
Panthers 23.900 23.333 23.617 1.927 -0.567
Redskins 26.700 26.000 26.350 2.344 -0.700
Jaguars 25.700 24.667 25.183 1.895 -1.033
Seahawks 19.600 18.500 19.050 2.920 -1.100
Chargers 17.800 16.667 17.233 1.996 -1.133
Bengals 15.600 13.667 14.633 2.395 -1.933
Lions 12.000 9.833 10.917 2.068 -2.167
Eagles 20.800 18.333 19.567 3.806 -2.467
Browns 27.500 24.667 26.083 2.597 -2.833
Dolphins 22.300 19.167 20.733 2.497 -3.133
Vikings 29.800 26.500 28.150 2.499 -3.300
Texans 6.400 2.333 4.367 2.260 -4.067
Bears 17.600 13.167 15.383 3.010 -4.433

Observations:

  • I think we all suspected it, but it's true, the Denver Broncos are the most overrated NFL Team (this week). It's not even close either. They're ranked over 7 spots too high, and yet their next closest overrated team — the Arizona Cardinals — is overrated but just over 3 spots. Is this religion vs science all over again?
  • Looks like the Raiders tumble isn't over yet.
  • Chargers are underranked again this week.
  • What will it take for people to buy into the Texans?
  • Wow, looks like everyone's giving up on the Bears.

Sources

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