The Worst San Diego Chargers Team Since 2003?
I like Pro Football Reference, a lot. I spend large chunks of my day digging through their ever-expanding stats and ratings, for current seasons and past ones, and often find out something relating to the San Diego Chargers that I can write about on this site. Today is one of those days.
Let's start with the MoV (Margin of Victory) and Point Differential stats, which are essentially the same stat presented in different ways (like total yards and average yards per attempt). The 2011 Chargers have given up 12 more points than they've scored, giving them a point differential of -12 and and MoV of -1.3 (or the result of dividing -12 by 9). The last time the Chargers finished with a negative stat for either of these categories was 2003, when the team finished 4-12 (which eventually landed them Shawne Merriman, Philip Rivers and Nate Kaeding).
Since 2004, the Chargers have never had a point differential lower than +92 nor a MoV lower than 5.8. For the Chargers to get to those figured this season, they'll need to outscore their next 7 opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game. No small task.
So is it the fault of the Chargers' offense or defense that their MoV is in the red? Well, both actually. The 2011 Bolts are currently ranked 13th in offensive points. The last time they were ranked lower than 5th in scoring offense? You guessed it, 2003. The 2011 defense is ranked 26th(!) in points allowed. The last time they were ranked lower than 15th in points allowed? You get the idea (The answer was 2003).
Is it diminishing talent? Is it Antonio Gates' foot? Is it Rivers' decline? Why isn't the team as good as it was when Norv first took over? The equation is a lot simpler than most Charger fans are making it out to be. The team that Norv took over had a Hall of Fame Running Back and an elite QB. Marty's Chargers didn't do much of anything until Rivers was drafted and Drew Brees turned into a future Hall of Famer himself. If this team is going to win with their office, they need elite talent at both RB and QB. Unfortunately, they haven't had that since 2007.
Norv took over in 2007 and took the team to the AFC Championship game against the undefeated Patriots team, and almost won with his elite QB playing on one knee, his Hall of Fame RB sitting on the sidelines and his best defensive player irreparably injured. That's essentially what he was brought here for. "Here's elite talent at multiple positions on both sides of the ball, now win with them!" is probably what A.J. Smith said to him.
Let's assume Philip Rivers is injured and will eventually return to the player that he was. That means you have an elite QB. The QB makes the receivers, so I won't even mention Vincent Jackson or Antonio Gates right now. Especially when El Capitan proved last year that he can throw to anybody. What he needs is a running game or, more precisely, an elite RB to help him on offense and a few elite defenders on the other side of the ball as well.
So how does this team return to glory? Well, it might be time for A.J. to go after free agents. Philip Rivers' peak is now, and Smith can't really afford to miss it (plus, he'll need to prove his worth as a GM quickly). The 2012 draft should be looked at for depth and long-term solutions, but 2012 free agent class should be looked at to fix the 2012 Chargers team (and Smith planned for this by clearing lots of cap space for next season). So, who's out there?
Pass Rushers: Anthony Spencer, Mario Williams
Strong Safeties: LaRon Landry, Tyvon Branch, Michael Griffin
Cornerbacks: Cortland Finnegan, Brent Grimes
Obviously the Chargers have more holes than those three, but getting a group like Landry, Finnegan and Spencer would go a long way towards improving a team that has lost too much talent and now sits as one of the least-talented in the league.
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Branch
I would love to steal Branch from the Raiders. Mario isn’t going anywhere, and no no no no to Finnegan, that dude is a punk.
I'd love to have that punk on the Chargers
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Nov 15, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Branch is an excellent safety.
I’d very much like to get him on board.
A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 15, 2011 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
This. Branch would be an amazing addition.
Bolts from the Blue // "Go for the throat, Norval." - Jim Rome
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Nov 15, 2011 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
Raiders would be fools to let him go
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Nov 15, 2011 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
They just traded two first rounders for Carson Palmer.
A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 15, 2011 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
All the more reason that they can't let their good players go
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Nov 15, 2011 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
I would prefer Brandon Carr, Brent Grimes, or Carlos Rogers
of course all of those guys are probably going to get re-signed…maybe it’s worth taking a flyer on a guy like Terrell Thomas? Could end up being a hell of a bargain since he is coming off a knee injury, then again we should probably be looking for a sure thing at CB and not a gamble.
Tracy Porter, Rashean Mathis, Lardarius Webb, and Aaron Ross are all coming up on the ends of contracts too
although I think Mathis just got placed on IR
Mathis isn't very good.
Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say s--- or f--- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
Bolts from the Blue
Could we get a Countdown to Castillo's return?
by Superduperboltman on Nov 16, 2011 7:28 AM PST up reply actions
Landry is horrible overrated
and Finnegan? That almost makes me want to talk about switching to the 4-3 and bringing back Drew Brees
Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say s--- or f--- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
Bolts from the Blue
Could we get a Countdown to Castillo's return?
by Superduperboltman on Nov 15, 2011 12:29 PM PST reply actions
Would we don't go after anyone i your group.
Spencer maybe.
by BOLTUREYE on Nov 15, 2011 1:05 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Chargers need to seriously look at trading away their 2012 1st round pick to obtain a legit defensive starter. There will probably be some studs on the draft board when we r slated to pick but of course, the chargers wont pick them.
by Lightning619 on Nov 15, 2011 1:07 PM PST via mobile reply actions
This is pretty much a terrible idea.
Bolts from the Blue // "Go for the throat, Norval." - Jim Rome
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Nov 15, 2011 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Haha
Just my “mad at AJ” mindset slippin out. What position do you think the chargers takein first rd? I say best available doesnt matter the position
by Lightning619 on Nov 15, 2011 4:05 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Pretty much BPA. Few exceptions (QB, RB).
Bolts from the Blue // "Go for the throat, Norval." - Jim Rome
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan
by Richard Wade on Nov 16, 2011 8:54 AM PST up reply actions
I'm going to pile on concerning the Finnegan pickup
Definitely not a fan of his. Also, I wouldn’t mind another 2004 draft. Just instead of Phillip Rivers we just pick a little later in the draft and pick up a new Merriman. Also, don’t forget, that was the draft we picked up Phillips too (our best pass rusher now). Yes. I think another 2004 draft would suit us nicely.
whoops
I forgot that Merriman was in the 2005 draft (we just got the pick that eventually picked him up during the 2004 draft).
Despite that I still wouldn’t mind a 2004 draft:
1 1 Eli Manning QB Mississippi (Traded for Rivers)
2 35 Igor Olshansky DE Oregon
3 65 Nate Kaeding K Iowa
3 66 Nick Hardwick C Purdue
4 98 Shaun Phillips LB Purdue
5 133 Dave Ball DE UCLA
5 154 Michael Turner RB Northern Illinois
6 169 Ryan Krause TE Nebraska-Omaha
7 204 Ryon Bingham DT Nebraska
7 209 Shane Olivea T Ohio State
7 254 Carlos Joseph — Miami (Fla.)
by Ferguson1015 on Nov 15, 2011 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
In terms of DVOA, is definitely the worst team since 2003.
That team posted an overall -11.9% DVOA. This year, they’re at -7.1% overall. Plenty of room to get better or worse.
A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 15, 2011 1:37 PM PST reply actions
Def need some players...
Landry may not be the best in coverage, but the dude can make hits and brings a mean streak to the secondary. I also like Michael Griffin, i think he’d suit playing alongside Weddle quite well. I’d love to get Branch also. The main thing is just that we get an upgrade to play alongside Eric.
Anthony Spencer would be a huge pickup, can’t see Dallas letting him go though, same goes for Mario, Houston would be foolish to let him walk. We will need another pass rusher with probably a high pick in the next draft. I like our DE rotation (when healthy) or Liuget, Castillo and Vaughn.
I am of the opinion that Finnegan is an overrated punk, but at least he makes tackles, which Cason seems to occasionally shy away from, and while Jammer is a good tackler, he’s losing a step with his speed. Brent Grimes would be a solid addition, but unspectacular.
I’d like to see a pass rushing OLB with first round pick next draft, please AJ not another CB in the first!
AJ actually hasn't picked up a CB in the first round for 3 drafts in a row now.
I expect that trend to continue.
by Ferguson1015 on Nov 15, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
Landry is always hurt
The guy has missed most of this season ………………and has been unremarkable when he has played. We don’t need to add another Bob Sanders. We need someone who is going to be on the field.
Yeah I don't like the thought of picking up Finnegan either
I don’t really recall him as being especially good in coverage…but then again I haven’t watched him in a while.
should have ended the sentance with
A J needs to go, period. His bobby beathard style of drafting ( choosing reaches hoping they will make him look likle a genius) haven’t worked. Need to draft and or free agents to shore up the O line. Running/pasing game depends on the line. The defense has more holes than swiss cheese. No pass rush, mediocre linebackers, and a weak secondary. A J drafted this group. No, this team will probably suck for at least one more year.
I would agree with the lack of talent on defense
but not offense…we just have a lack of talent utilization on offense. With Rivers in such a rut, Mathews/Tolbert do not get used nearly enough, particularly with all of the injuries on the O-line last game. There is no excuse at all for not running the ball more against the Raiders…none.
There are no easy answers to fixing this team
but getting your QB back would go a long way. (By the way, does anyone REALLY believe that Rivers is injured in some way? I know its the easiest answer…) Anyway I think Anthony Spencer would be a decent get – he kind of underachieves but I guess thats what happens when you play behind Demarcus Ware. And NO to Finnegan.
Depth is proving to be a weakness, but we only need "elite" talent in a few areas
I think if Jammer moves to Safety next year, the secondary could be very strong. Jammer and Weddle at safety and Gilchrist and Cason at corner. Maybe not elite, but strong. Cason has been inconsistent, but I’m not ready to close the book on him yet. Gilchrist has looked promising at times as a rookie. He could come on in his second year, as a starter.
We don’t know what we have in Mouton yet, but Butler has started to look like a good starter. I’d feel positve about a middle linebacking core of Mouton, Butler, and Spikes. Unless there was someone really good available in the draft, I think we have more pressing needs.
To me, those needs would be pass rush and O-Line. For pass rush, I think our D-Line is solid (if healthy). What we really need is an elite OLB opposite Philips. I think the remaining pieces of the defense can get by with being “solid” but you really need your OLBs to be elite in a 3-4. Barnes is effective as a pass rusher, but he’s proven to be more of a situational guy than a starter.
The O-Line is looking thin lately, but who do you replace other than Clary? I think you have to go tackle to replace Clary and as insurance against McNeil. His lingering neck issues make me nervous.
Only other offensive positions we need are TE and WR. I think they were high on Sperry for awhile, but he hasn’t really shown me anything to prove he’s a successor to Gates. As much as I love Gates, we need to bring someone in to cover when he’s injured and as an eventual replacement. I think that’s another area that we really need “elite” talent.
As far as WR, I think it has to be a good slot receiver. We haven’t really had anyone in the slot in recent years and I think that’s hurting us as people clamp down on the deep routes.

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