Three-and-one. Mmmmmm, drink it in. It always goes down smooth. Wait, what?

Heading into Week 5 has the Chargers sitting at 3-1; a record not seen since the days-of-Schottenheimer. While 3-1 seems impressive, those three wins have come against teams with a combined 1-11 record. Not exactly something that instills massive amounts of confidence. As you'll see in this week's analysis, the pundits like the 3-1 record, but the Chargers stats don't quite back it up.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

If anyone hasn't noticed, we are through the first quarter of the season and the Chargers are 3-1. Now, they begin a tough three-week road trip at the Jets, Broncos and Chiefs. They can slam the door on the division if they play well in this stint.

Sports Illustrated

We've killed the slow-starting Chargers for years now over their tendency to sleep-walk through September and early October, but now that they're off to a solid 3-1 beginning, I'm not hearing a whole lot of credit directed Norv Turner's way. That's a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of scenario, but I suppose it's to be expected. San Diego is 3-0 at home, but this week the Chargers embark on a three-game road trip that is interrupted only by their Week 6 bye.

ProFootballWeekly

Quietly playing well, even with a bunch of injuries.

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Packers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Saints	2	2	6	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	3	2		2.667		1.179
Patriots	3	6	3	3	3	5	5	3	2	2	4	4		3.583		1.187
Ravens	5	3	4	4	5	4	3	4	5	3	2	3		3.750		0.924
Lions	4	4	2	6	4	3	4	6	4	5	5	5		4.333		1.106
Texans	6	7	7	5	6	6	6	7	6	6	7	6		6.250		0.595
Chargers	7	5	5	8	8	7	7	5	7	7	6	7		6.583		1.038
Bills	9	12	9	14	7	10	10	11	10	8	10	8		9.833		1.818
Giants	10	14	10	11	11	9	8	9	8	9	12	9		10.000		1.683
Buccaneers	11	8	13	9	13	8	9	10	14	17	8	10		10.833		2.734
Titans	8	16	15	7	9	14	12	16	12	11	13	11		12.000		2.858
Steelers	13	9	11	15	12	11	13	8	13	10	15	15		12.083		2.253
Redskins	12	10	8	17	10	17	11	17	9	12	11	14		12.333		3.064
Jets	14	13	19	13	15	18	14	14	11	13	9	13		13.833		2.577
Falcons	19	11	14	18	18	16	16	12	17	15	18	12		15.500		2.598
49ers	16	18	16	19	16	12	15	15	15	14	14	16		15.500		1.756
Bears	18	15	18	10	17	13	18	18	18	18	17	17		16.417		2.431
Raiders	15	20	17	12	14	15	17	13	19	19	19	18		16.500		2.533
Cowboys	17	17	12	16	19	19	19	19	16	16	16	20		17.167		2.115
Eagles	20	19	20	20	20	22	20	20	20	20	20	19		20.000		0.707
Bengals	21	22	22	22	22	21	21	21	21	21	21	21		21.333		0.471
Browns	22	25	23	25	21	24	22	22	22	22	22	22		22.667		1.247
Panthers	24	21	21	23	23	20	23	24	23	24	25	23		22.833		1.404
Cardinals	23	23	26	21	24	23	24	23	24	23	24	24		23.500		1.118
Broncos	27	27	28	24	26	26	27	25	25	26	26	25		26.000		1.080
Jaguars	26	30	25	29	25	25	26	30	26	27	23	26		26.500		2.062
Seahawks	25	24	24	27	27	27	28	31	27	25	28	27		26.667		1.886
Chiefs	28	31	27	28	28	28	25	26	28	30	27	28		27.833		1.518
Colts	29	26	31	26	32	30	29	27	30	28	30	30		29.000		1.826
Rams	32	28	29	31	30	31	32	32	29	31	29	29		30.250		1.362
Dolphins	31	29	30	32	31	32	30	28	31	29	32	31		30.500		1.258
Vikings	30	32	32	30	29	29	31	29	32	32	31	32		30.750		1.233

Observations:

• Looks like the Packers vs Saints game will be the first and last (NFC) game of the year.
• Again, there's a definite deliniation between the top 7 teams, and the next 7. The Chargers are at the bottom of the Top 7 group.
• After their impressive win over the Jets put the Raiders fairly close to the Chargers in the rankings, they got knocked down a few pegs this week after getting man-handled by the Patriots
• The 49ers certainly are climbing the board.
• Philadelphia ... ouch.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Packers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Bengals	21	22	22	22	22	21	21	21	21	21	21	21		21.333		0.471
Texans	6	7	7	5	6	6	6	7	6	6	7	6		6.250		0.595
Eagles	20	19	20	20	20	22	20	20	20	20	20	19		20.000		0.707
Ravens	5	3	4	4	5	4	3	4	5	3	2	3		3.750		0.924
Chargers	7	5	5	8	8	7	7	5	7	7	6	7		6.583		1.038
Broncos	27	27	28	24	26	26	27	25	25	26	26	25		26.000		1.080
Lions	4	4	2	6	4	3	4	6	4	5	5	5		4.333		1.106
Cardinals	23	23	26	21	24	23	24	23	24	23	24	24		23.500		1.118
Saints	2	2	6	2	2	2	2	2	3	4	3	2		2.667		1.179
Patriots	3	6	3	3	3	5	5	3	2	2	4	4		3.583		1.187
Vikings	30	32	32	30	29	29	31	29	32	32	31	32		30.750		1.233
Browns	22	25	23	25	21	24	22	22	22	22	22	22		22.667		1.247
Dolphins	31	29	30	32	31	32	30	28	31	29	32	31		30.500		1.258
Rams	32	28	29	31	30	31	32	32	29	31	29	29		30.250		1.362
Panthers	24	21	21	23	23	20	23	24	23	24	25	23		22.833		1.404
Chiefs	28	31	27	28	28	28	25	26	28	30	27	28		27.833		1.518
Giants	10	14	10	11	11	9	8	9	8	9	12	9		10.000		1.683
49ers	16	18	16	19	16	12	15	15	15	14	14	16		15.500		1.756
Bills	9	12	9	14	7	10	10	11	10	8	10	8		9.833		1.818
Colts	29	26	31	26	32	30	29	27	30	28	30	30		29.000		1.826
Seahawks	25	24	24	27	27	27	28	31	27	25	28	27		26.667		1.886
Jaguars	26	30	25	29	25	25	26	30	26	27	23	26		26.500		2.062
Cowboys	17	17	12	16	19	19	19	19	16	16	16	20		17.167		2.115
Steelers	13	9	11	15	12	11	13	8	13	10	15	15		12.083		2.253
Bears	18	15	18	10	17	13	18	18	18	18	17	17		16.417		2.431
Raiders	15	20	17	12	14	15	17	13	19	19	19	18		16.500		2.533
Jets	14	13	19	13	15	18	14	14	11	13	9	13		13.833		2.577
Falcons	19	11	14	18	18	16	16	12	17	15	18	12		15.500		2.598
Buccaneers	11	8	13	9	13	8	9	10	14	17	8	10		10.833		2.734
Titans	8	16	15	7	9	14	12	16	12	11	13	11		12.000		2.858
Redskins	12	10	8	17	10	17	11	17	9	12	11	14		12.333		3.064

Observations:

• Packers unanimous number-1 (duh)
• Wow, Bengals are very consistent in their rankings. As are the Texans and Eagles
• The Chargers have historically been one of the more inconsistently-ranked teams on the subjective lists. This week, they're 6th-most-consistent. Hovering right around a 6-7 ranking
• Tennessee and Washington have caught everyone by surprise. They're a bit flabbergasted.

Objective Average

	Objective
Packers	2	1	1		1.333		0.471
Patriots	1	4	2		2.333		1.247
Ravens	3	5	4		4.000		0.817
Saints	6	3	3		4.000		1.414
Lions	11	2	5		6.000		3.742
Bills	4	7	9		6.667		2.055
Texans	8	8	7		7.667		0.471
Giants	5	11	12		9.333		3.091
Jets	7	15	6		9.333		4.028
Titans	10	10	8		9.333		0.943
Cowboys	21	6	11		12.667		6.236
Steelers	9	19	10		12.667		4.497
49ers	14	9	17		13.333		3.300
Redskins	17	14	15		15.333		1.247
Chargers	12	20	14		15.333		3.399
Bears	23	12	13		16.000		4.967
Raiders	19	13	16		16.000		2.450
Buccaneers	15	16	18		16.333		1.247
Falcons	13	18	20		17.000		2.944
Bengals	18	17	19		18.000		0.817
Eagles	16	25	21		20.667		3.682
Broncos	26	21	22		23.000		2.160
Vikings	20	28	25		24.333		3.300
Panthers	27	23	23		24.333		1.886
Jaguars	28	22	24		24.667		2.494
Cardinals	25	26	27		26.000		0.817
Dolphins	24	30	26		26.667		2.494
Browns	22	29	29		26.667		3.300
Chiefs	31	24	30		28.333		3.091
Colts	29	31	28		29.333		1.247
Seahawks	30	27	31		29.333		1.700
Rams	32	32	32		32.000		0.000

Observations:

• Football Outsiders' metrics still are in love with the Patriots. But the Packers are still the overall top team.
• The Chargers don't appear to be playing as well objectively than the subjective sites feel. More on that in a bit.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Rams	32	32	32		32.000		0.000
Packers	2	1	1		1.333		0.471
Texans	8	8	7		7.667		0.471
Ravens	3	5	4		4.000		0.817
Bengals	18	17	19		18.000		0.817
Cardinals	25	26	27		26.000		0.817
Titans	10	10	8		9.333		0.943
Patriots	1	4	2		2.333		1.247
Redskins	17	14	15		15.333		1.247
Colts	29	31	28		29.333		1.247
Buccaneers	15	16	18		16.333		1.247
Saints	6	3	3		4.000		1.414
Seahawks	30	27	31		29.333		1.700
Panthers	27	23	23		24.333		1.886
Bills	4	7	9		6.667		2.055
Broncos	26	21	22		23.000		2.160
Raiders	19	13	16		16.000		2.450
Dolphins	24	30	26		26.667		2.494
Jaguars	28	22	24		24.667		2.494
Falcons	13	18	20		17.000		2.944
Giants	5	11	12		9.333		3.091
Chiefs	31	24	30		28.333		3.091
Browns	22	29	29		26.667		3.300
Vikings	20	28	25		24.333		3.300
49ers	14	9	17		13.333		3.300
Chargers	12	20	14		15.333		3.399
Eagles	16	25	21		20.667		3.682
Lions	11	2	5		6.000		3.742
Jets	7	15	6		9.333		4.028
Steelers	9	19	10		12.667		4.497
Bears	23	12	13		16.000		4.967
Cowboys	21	6	11		12.667		6.236

Observations:

• St. Louis is terrible. It's unanimous
• Dallas is all over the board here. No clue just how good or bad they are.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Packers	1.000	1.333		1.167		0.249		0.333
Patriots	3.583	2.333		2.958		1.300		-1.250
Saints	2.667	4.000		3.333		1.340		1.333
Ravens	3.750	4.000		3.875		0.909		0.250
Lions	4.333	6.000		5.167		2.055		1.667
Texans	6.250	7.667		6.958		0.806		1.417
Bills	9.833	6.667		8.250		2.257		-3.167
Giants	10.000	9.333		9.667		2.061		-0.667
Titans	12.000	9.333		10.667		2.802		-2.667
Chargers	6.583	15.333		10.958		3.927		8.750
Jets	13.833	9.333		11.583		3.435		-4.500
Steelers	12.083	12.667		12.375		2.857		0.583
Buccaneers	10.833	16.333		13.583		3.336		5.500
Redskins	12.333	15.333		13.833		3.043		3.000
49ers	15.500	13.333		14.417		2.323		-2.167
Cowboys	17.167	12.667		14.917		3.820		-4.500
Bears	16.417	16.000		16.208		3.113		-0.417
Falcons	15.500	17.000		16.250		2.737		1.500
Raiders	16.500	16.000		16.250		2.525		-0.500
Bengals	21.333	18.000		19.667		1.445		-3.333
Eagles	20.000	20.667		20.333		1.784		0.667
Panthers	22.833	24.333		23.583		1.628		1.500
Broncos	26.000	23.000		24.500		1.818		-3.000
Browns	22.667	26.667		24.667		2.446		4.000
Cardinals	23.500	26.000		24.750		1.461		2.500
Jaguars	26.500	24.667		25.583		2.276		-1.833
Vikings	30.750	24.333		27.542		3.160		-6.417
Seahawks	26.667	29.333		28.000		2.135		2.667
Chiefs	27.833	28.333		28.083		1.948		0.500
Dolphins	30.500	26.667		28.583		2.205		-3.833
Colts	29.000	29.333		29.167		1.731		0.333
Rams	30.250	32.000		31.125		1.405		1.750

Observations:

• Thanks to their objective rankings, San Diego is knocked down a few spots. But hey, still above Rex Ryan's Jets (I'll take it).
• Yup, Packers are still good. Rams are still terrible

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Packers	1.000	1.333		1.167		0.249		0.333
Texans	6.250	7.667		6.958		0.806		1.417
Ravens	3.750	4.000		3.875		0.909		0.250
Patriots	3.583	2.333		2.958		1.300		-1.250
Saints	2.667	4.000		3.333		1.340		1.333
Rams	30.250	32.000		31.125		1.405		1.750
Bengals	21.333	18.000		19.667		1.445		-3.333
Cardinals	23.500	26.000		24.750		1.461		2.500
Panthers	22.833	24.333		23.583		1.628		1.500
Colts	29.000	29.333		29.167		1.731		0.333
Eagles	20.000	20.667		20.333		1.784		0.667
Broncos	26.000	23.000		24.500		1.818		-3.000
Chiefs	27.833	28.333		28.083		1.948		0.500
Lions	4.333	6.000		5.167		2.055		1.667
Giants	10.000	9.333		9.667		2.061		-0.667
Seahawks	26.667	29.333		28.000		2.135		2.667
Dolphins	30.500	26.667		28.583		2.205		-3.833
Bills	9.833	6.667		8.250		2.257		-3.167
Jaguars	26.500	24.667		25.583		2.276		-1.833
49ers	15.500	13.333		14.417		2.323		-2.167
Browns	22.667	26.667		24.667		2.446		4.000
Raiders	16.500	16.000		16.250		2.525		-0.500
Falcons	15.500	17.000		16.250		2.737		1.500
Titans	12.000	9.333		10.667		2.802		-2.667
Steelers	12.083	12.667		12.375		2.857		0.583
Redskins	12.333	15.333		13.833		3.043		3.000
Bears	16.417	16.000		16.208		3.113		-0.417
Vikings	30.750	24.333		27.542		3.160		-6.417
Buccaneers	10.833	16.333		13.583		3.336		5.500
Jets	13.833	9.333		11.583		3.435		-4.500
Cowboys	17.167	12.667		14.917		3.820		-4.500
Chargers	6.583	15.333		10.958		3.927		8.750

Observations:

• Now the Chargers are at the bottom of the Standard Deviation list. The Cowboys are close behind.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Chargers	6.583	15.333		10.958		3.927		8.750
Buccaneers	10.833	16.333		13.583		3.336		5.500
Browns	22.667	26.667		24.667		2.446		4.000
Redskins	12.333	15.333		13.833		3.043		3.000
Seahawks	26.667	29.333		28.000		2.135		2.667
Cardinals	23.500	26.000		24.750		1.461		2.500
Rams	30.250	32.000		31.125		1.405		1.750
Lions	4.333	6.000		5.167		2.055		1.667
Falcons	15.500	17.000		16.250		2.737		1.500
Panthers	22.833	24.333		23.583		1.628		1.500
Texans	6.250	7.667		6.958		0.806		1.417
Saints	2.667	4.000		3.333		1.340		1.333
Eagles	20.000	20.667		20.333		1.784		0.667
Steelers	12.083	12.667		12.375		2.857		0.583
Chiefs	27.833	28.333		28.083		1.948		0.500
Colts	29.000	29.333		29.167		1.731		0.333
Packers	1.000	1.333		1.167		0.249		0.333
Ravens	3.750	4.000		3.875		0.909		0.250
Bears	16.417	16.000		16.208		3.113		-0.417
Raiders	16.500	16.000		16.250		2.525		-0.500
Giants	10.000	9.333		9.667		2.061		-0.667
Patriots	3.583	2.333		2.958		1.300		-1.250
Jaguars	26.500	24.667		25.583		2.276		-1.833
49ers	15.500	13.333		14.417		2.323		-2.167
Titans	12.000	9.333		10.667		2.802		-2.667
Broncos	26.000	23.000		24.500		1.818		-3.000
Bills	9.833	6.667		8.250		2.257		-3.167
Bengals	21.333	18.000		19.667		1.445		-3.333
Dolphins	30.500	26.667		28.583		2.205		-3.833
Jets	13.833	9.333		11.583		3.435		-4.500
Cowboys	17.167	12.667		14.917		3.820		-4.500
Vikings	30.750	24.333		27.542		3.160		-6.417

Observations:

• Sigh. It's now the second week in a row that the Chargers are at the top of this list as the "Most Overrated Team." This should cause some concern as historically teams in this position are due a fall from grace.
• People are getting excited about Tampa Bay and Washington, but they should temper that excitement a bit.
• There was a lot of pre-season hype about Cleveland this year. It seems that was unwaranted and it's just more of the same in Ohio.
• Minnesota is still playing better than is perceived. But until they start winning games, they'll still be down at the bottom of the list

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• SportingNews
• Pro Football Weekly
• National Football Post
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Football Outsiders
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin