2011 NFL Power Rankings From Around the Web: Week 5

"Alright you guys. We have to get our crap together if we have any hope of climbing the Objective Rankings board!"

Three-and-one. Mmmmmm, drink it in. It always goes down smooth. Wait, what?

Heading into Week 5 has the Chargers sitting at 3-1; a record not seen since the days-of-Schottenheimer. While 3-1 seems impressive, those three wins have come against teams with a combined 1-11 record. Not exactly something that instills massive amounts of confidence. As you'll see in this week's analysis, the pundits like the 3-1 record, but the Chargers stats don't quite back it up.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

If anyone hasn't noticed, we are through the first quarter of the season and the Chargers are 3-1. Now, they begin a tough three-week road trip at the Jets, Broncos and Chiefs. They can slam the door on the division if they play well in this stint.

Sports Illustrated

We've killed the slow-starting Chargers for years now over their tendency to sleep-walk through September and early October, but now that they're off to a solid 3-1 beginning, I'm not hearing a whole lot of credit directed Norv Turner's way. That's a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of scenario, but I suppose it's to be expected. San Diego is 3-0 at home, but this week the Chargers embark on a three-game road trip that is interrupted only by their Week 6 bye.

ProFootballWeekly

Quietly playing well, even with a bunch of injuries.

Subjective Average

  Subjective
  ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit   Average   Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Saints 2 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 2.667   1.179
Patriots 3 6 3 3 3 5 5 3 2 2 4 4 3.583   1.187
Ravens 5 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 3 2 3 3.750   0.924
Lions 4 4 2 6 4 3 4 6 4 5 5 5 4.333   1.106
Texans 6 7 7 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6.250   0.595
Chargers 7 5 5 8 8 7 7 5 7 7 6 7 6.583   1.038
Bills 9 12 9 14 7 10 10 11 10 8 10 8 9.833   1.818
Giants 10 14 10 11 11 9 8 9 8 9 12 9 10.000   1.683
Buccaneers 11 8 13 9 13 8 9 10 14 17 8 10 10.833   2.734
Titans 8 16 15 7 9 14 12 16 12 11 13 11 12.000   2.858
Steelers 13 9 11 15 12 11 13 8 13 10 15 15 12.083   2.253
Redskins 12 10 8 17 10 17 11 17 9 12 11 14 12.333   3.064
Jets 14 13 19 13 15 18 14 14 11 13 9 13 13.833   2.577
Falcons 19 11 14 18 18 16 16 12 17 15 18 12 15.500   2.598
49ers 16 18 16 19 16 12 15 15 15 14 14 16 15.500   1.756
Bears 18 15 18 10 17 13 18 18 18 18 17 17 16.417   2.431
Raiders 15 20 17 12 14 15 17 13 19 19 19 18 16.500   2.533
Cowboys 17 17 12 16 19 19 19 19 16 16 16 20 17.167   2.115
Eagles 20 19 20 20 20 22 20 20 20 20 20 19 20.000   0.707
Bengals 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21.333   0.471
Browns 22 25 23 25 21 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22.667   1.247
Panthers 24 21 21 23 23 20 23 24 23 24 25 23 22.833   1.404
Cardinals 23 23 26 21 24 23 24 23 24 23 24 24 23.500   1.118
Broncos 27 27 28 24 26 26 27 25 25 26 26 25 26.000   1.080
Jaguars 26 30 25 29 25 25 26 30 26 27 23 26 26.500   2.062
Seahawks 25 24 24 27 27 27 28 31 27 25 28 27 26.667   1.886
Chiefs 28 31 27 28 28 28 25 26 28 30 27 28 27.833   1.518
Colts 29 26 31 26 32 30 29 27 30 28 30 30 29.000   1.826
Rams 32 28 29 31 30 31 32 32 29 31 29 29 30.250   1.362
Dolphins 31 29 30 32 31 32 30 28 31 29 32 31 30.500   1.258
Vikings 30 32 32 30 29 29 31 29 32 32 31 32 30.750   1.233

 

Observations:

  • Looks like the Packers vs Saints game will be the first and last (NFC) game of the year.
  • Again, there's a definite deliniation between the top 7 teams, and the next 7. The Chargers are at the bottom of the Top 7 group.
  • After their impressive win over the Jets put the Raiders fairly close to the Chargers in the rankings, they got knocked down a few pegs this week after getting man-handled by the Patriots
  • The 49ers certainly are climbing the board.
  • Philadelphia ... ouch.

 

Subjective Standard Deviation

  Subjective
  ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit   Average   Standard Deviation
Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   1.000   0.000
Bengals 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21.333   0.471
Texans 6 7 7 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6.250   0.595
Eagles 20 19 20 20 20 22 20 20 20 20 20 19 20.000   0.707
Ravens 5 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 3 2 3 3.750   0.924
Chargers 7 5 5 8 8 7 7 5 7 7 6 7 6.583   1.038
Broncos 27 27 28 24 26 26 27 25 25 26 26 25 26.000   1.080
Lions 4 4 2 6 4 3 4 6 4 5 5 5 4.333   1.106
Cardinals 23 23 26 21 24 23 24 23 24 23 24 24 23.500   1.118
Saints 2 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 2.667   1.179
Patriots 3 6 3 3 3 5 5 3 2 2 4 4 3.583   1.187
Vikings 30 32 32 30 29 29 31 29 32 32 31 32 30.750   1.233
Browns 22 25 23 25 21 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22.667   1.247
Dolphins 31 29 30 32 31 32 30 28 31 29 32 31 30.500   1.258
Rams 32 28 29 31 30 31 32 32 29 31 29 29 30.250   1.362
Panthers 24 21 21 23 23 20 23 24 23 24 25 23 22.833   1.404
Chiefs 28 31 27 28 28 28 25 26 28 30 27 28 27.833   1.518
Giants 10 14 10 11 11 9 8 9 8 9 12 9 10.000   1.683
49ers 16 18 16 19 16 12 15 15 15 14 14 16 15.500   1.756
Bills 9 12 9 14 7 10 10 11 10 8 10 8 9.833   1.818
Colts 29 26 31 26 32 30 29 27 30 28 30 30 29.000   1.826
Seahawks 25 24 24 27 27 27 28 31 27 25 28 27 26.667   1.886
Jaguars 26 30 25 29 25 25 26 30 26 27 23 26 26.500   2.062
Cowboys 17 17 12 16 19 19 19 19 16 16 16 20 17.167   2.115
Steelers 13 9 11 15 12 11 13 8 13 10 15 15 12.083   2.253
Bears 18 15 18 10 17 13 18 18 18 18 17 17 16.417   2.431
Raiders 15 20 17 12 14 15 17 13 19 19 19 18 16.500   2.533
Jets 14 13 19 13 15 18 14 14 11 13 9 13 13.833   2.577
Falcons 19 11 14 18 18 16 16 12 17 15 18 12 15.500   2.598
Buccaneers 11 8 13 9 13 8 9 10 14 17 8 10 10.833   2.734
Titans 8 16 15 7 9 14 12 16 12 11 13 11 12.000   2.858
Redskins 12 10 8 17 10 17 11 17 9 12 11 14 12.333   3.064

 

Observations:

  • Packers unanimous number-1 (duh)
  • Wow, Bengals are very consistent in their rankings. As are the Texans and Eagles
  • The Chargers have historically been one of the more inconsistently-ranked teams on the subjective lists. This week, they're 6th-most-consistent. Hovering right around a 6-7 ranking
  • Tennessee and Washington have caught everyone by surprise. They're a bit flabbergasted.

 

Objective Average

  Objective
  Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin   Average   Standard Deviation
Packers 2 1 1   1.333   0.471
Patriots 1 4 2 2.333   1.247
Ravens 3 5 4 4.000   0.817
Saints 6 3 3 4.000   1.414
Lions 11 2 5 6.000   3.742
Bills 4 7 9 6.667   2.055
Texans 8 8 7 7.667   0.471
Giants 5 11 12 9.333   3.091
Jets 7 15 6 9.333   4.028
Titans 10 10 8 9.333   0.943
Cowboys 21 6 11 12.667   6.236
Steelers 9 19 10 12.667   4.497
49ers 14 9 17 13.333   3.300
Redskins 17 14 15 15.333   1.247
Chargers 12 20 14 15.333   3.399
Bears 23 12 13 16.000   4.967
Raiders 19 13 16 16.000   2.450
Buccaneers 15 16 18 16.333   1.247
Falcons 13 18 20 17.000   2.944
Bengals 18 17 19 18.000   0.817
Eagles 16 25 21 20.667   3.682
Broncos 26 21 22 23.000   2.160
Vikings 20 28 25 24.333   3.300
Panthers 27 23 23 24.333   1.886
Jaguars 28 22 24 24.667   2.494
Cardinals 25 26 27 26.000   0.817
Dolphins 24 30 26 26.667   2.494
Browns 22 29 29 26.667   3.300
Chiefs 31 24 30 28.333   3.091
Colts 29 31 28 29.333   1.247
Seahawks 30 27 31 29.333   1.700
Rams 32 32 32 32.000   0.000

 

Observations:

  • Football Outsiders' metrics still are in love with the Patriots. But the Packers are still the overall top team.
  • The Chargers don't appear to be playing as well objectively than the subjective sites feel. More on that in a bit.

 

Objective Standard Deviation

  Objective
  Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin   Average   Standard Deviation
Rams 32 32 32   32.000   0.000
Packers 2 1 1 1.333   0.471
Texans 8 8 7 7.667   0.471
Ravens 3 5 4 4.000   0.817
Bengals 18 17 19 18.000   0.817
Cardinals 25 26 27 26.000   0.817
Titans 10 10 8 9.333   0.943
Patriots 1 4 2 2.333   1.247
Redskins 17 14 15 15.333   1.247
Colts 29 31 28 29.333   1.247
Buccaneers 15 16 18 16.333   1.247
Saints 6 3 3 4.000   1.414
Seahawks 30 27 31 29.333   1.700
Panthers 27 23 23 24.333   1.886
Bills 4 7 9 6.667   2.055
Broncos 26 21 22 23.000   2.160
Raiders 19 13 16 16.000   2.450
Dolphins 24 30 26 26.667   2.494
Jaguars 28 22 24 24.667   2.494
Falcons 13 18 20 17.000   2.944
Giants 5 11 12 9.333   3.091
Chiefs 31 24 30 28.333   3.091
Browns 22 29 29 26.667   3.300
Vikings 20 28 25 24.333   3.300
49ers 14 9 17 13.333   3.300
Chargers 12 20 14 15.333   3.399
Eagles 16 25 21 20.667   3.682
Lions 11 2 5 6.000   3.742
Jets 7 15 6 9.333   4.028
Steelers 9 19 10 12.667   4.497
Bears 23 12 13 16.000   4.967
Cowboys 21 6 11 12.667   6.236

 

Observations:

  • St. Louis is terrible. It's unanimous
  • Dallas is all over the board here. No clue just how good or bad they are.

 

Overall Average

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Packers 1.000 1.333   1.167   0.249   0.333
Patriots 3.583 2.333 2.958   1.300   -1.250
Saints 2.667 4.000 3.333   1.340   1.333
Ravens 3.750 4.000 3.875   0.909   0.250
Lions 4.333 6.000 5.167   2.055   1.667
Texans 6.250 7.667 6.958   0.806   1.417
Bills 9.833 6.667 8.250   2.257   -3.167
Giants 10.000 9.333 9.667   2.061   -0.667
Titans 12.000 9.333 10.667   2.802   -2.667
Chargers 6.583 15.333 10.958   3.927   8.750
Jets 13.833 9.333 11.583   3.435   -4.500
Steelers 12.083 12.667 12.375   2.857   0.583
Buccaneers 10.833 16.333 13.583   3.336   5.500
Redskins 12.333 15.333 13.833   3.043   3.000
49ers 15.500 13.333 14.417   2.323   -2.167
Cowboys 17.167 12.667 14.917   3.820   -4.500
Bears 16.417 16.000 16.208   3.113   -0.417
Falcons 15.500 17.000 16.250   2.737   1.500
Raiders 16.500 16.000 16.250   2.525   -0.500
Bengals 21.333 18.000 19.667   1.445   -3.333
Eagles 20.000 20.667 20.333   1.784   0.667
Panthers 22.833 24.333 23.583   1.628   1.500
Broncos 26.000 23.000 24.500   1.818   -3.000
Browns 22.667 26.667 24.667   2.446   4.000
Cardinals 23.500 26.000 24.750   1.461   2.500
Jaguars 26.500 24.667 25.583   2.276   -1.833
Vikings 30.750 24.333 27.542   3.160   -6.417
Seahawks 26.667 29.333 28.000   2.135   2.667
Chiefs 27.833 28.333 28.083   1.948   0.500
Dolphins 30.500 26.667 28.583   2.205   -3.833
Colts 29.000 29.333 29.167   1.731   0.333
Rams 30.250 32.000 31.125   1.405   1.750

 

Observations:

  • Thanks to their objective rankings, San Diego is knocked down a few spots. But hey, still above Rex Ryan's Jets (I'll take it).
  • Yup, Packers are still good. Rams are still terrible

 

Overall Standard Deviation

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Packers 1.000 1.333   1.167   0.249   0.333
Texans 6.250 7.667 6.958   0.806   1.417
Ravens 3.750 4.000 3.875   0.909   0.250
Patriots 3.583 2.333 2.958   1.300   -1.250
Saints 2.667 4.000 3.333   1.340   1.333
Rams 30.250 32.000 31.125   1.405   1.750
Bengals 21.333 18.000 19.667   1.445   -3.333
Cardinals 23.500 26.000 24.750   1.461   2.500
Panthers 22.833 24.333 23.583   1.628   1.500
Colts 29.000 29.333 29.167   1.731   0.333
Eagles 20.000 20.667 20.333   1.784   0.667
Broncos 26.000 23.000 24.500   1.818   -3.000
Chiefs 27.833 28.333 28.083   1.948   0.500
Lions 4.333 6.000 5.167   2.055   1.667
Giants 10.000 9.333 9.667   2.061   -0.667
Seahawks 26.667 29.333 28.000   2.135   2.667
Dolphins 30.500 26.667 28.583   2.205   -3.833
Bills 9.833 6.667 8.250   2.257   -3.167
Jaguars 26.500 24.667 25.583   2.276   -1.833
49ers 15.500 13.333 14.417   2.323   -2.167
Browns 22.667 26.667 24.667   2.446   4.000
Raiders 16.500 16.000 16.250   2.525   -0.500
Falcons 15.500 17.000 16.250   2.737   1.500
Titans 12.000 9.333 10.667   2.802   -2.667
Steelers 12.083 12.667 12.375   2.857   0.583
Redskins 12.333 15.333 13.833   3.043   3.000
Bears 16.417 16.000 16.208   3.113   -0.417
Vikings 30.750 24.333 27.542   3.160   -6.417
Buccaneers 10.833 16.333 13.583   3.336   5.500
Jets 13.833 9.333 11.583   3.435   -4.500
Cowboys 17.167 12.667 14.917   3.820   -4.500
Chargers 6.583 15.333 10.958   3.927   8.750

 

Observations:

  • Now the Chargers are at the bottom of the Standard Deviation list. The Cowboys are close behind.

 

Difference in Averages

  Subj vs Obj
  Subjective Average Objevtive Average   Average   Standard Deviation   Standard Deviation
Chargers 6.583 15.333   10.958   3.927   8.750
Buccaneers 10.833 16.333 13.583   3.336   5.500
Browns 22.667 26.667 24.667   2.446   4.000
Redskins 12.333 15.333 13.833   3.043   3.000
Seahawks 26.667 29.333 28.000   2.135   2.667
Cardinals 23.500 26.000 24.750   1.461   2.500
Rams 30.250 32.000 31.125   1.405   1.750
Lions 4.333 6.000 5.167   2.055   1.667
Falcons 15.500 17.000 16.250   2.737   1.500
Panthers 22.833 24.333 23.583   1.628   1.500
Texans 6.250 7.667 6.958   0.806   1.417
Saints 2.667 4.000 3.333   1.340   1.333
Eagles 20.000 20.667 20.333   1.784   0.667
Steelers 12.083 12.667 12.375   2.857   0.583
Chiefs 27.833 28.333 28.083   1.948   0.500
Colts 29.000 29.333 29.167   1.731   0.333
Packers 1.000 1.333 1.167   0.249   0.333
Ravens 3.750 4.000 3.875   0.909   0.250
Bears 16.417 16.000 16.208   3.113   -0.417
Raiders 16.500 16.000 16.250   2.525   -0.500
Giants 10.000 9.333 9.667   2.061   -0.667
Patriots 3.583 2.333 2.958   1.300   -1.250
Jaguars 26.500 24.667 25.583   2.276   -1.833
49ers 15.500 13.333 14.417   2.323   -2.167
Titans 12.000 9.333 10.667   2.802   -2.667
Broncos 26.000 23.000 24.500   1.818   -3.000
Bills 9.833 6.667 8.250   2.257   -3.167
Bengals 21.333 18.000 19.667   1.445   -3.333
Dolphins 30.500 26.667 28.583   2.205   -3.833
Jets 13.833 9.333 11.583   3.435   -4.500
Cowboys 17.167 12.667 14.917   3.820   -4.500
Vikings 30.750 24.333 27.542   3.160   -6.417

 

Observations:

  • Sigh. It's now the second week in a row that the Chargers are at the top of this list as the "Most Overrated Team." This should cause some concern as historically teams in this position are due a fall from grace.
  • People are getting excited about Tampa Bay and Washington, but they should temper that excitement a bit.
  • There was a lot of pre-season hype about Cleveland this year. It seems that was unwaranted and it's just more of the same in Ohio.
  • Minnesota is still playing better than is perceived. But until they start winning games, they'll still be down at the bottom of the list

 

Sources

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