2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 8

by creanium on Oct 26, 2011 3:36 PM PDT in NFL Power Rankings

So, forgive me if my preamble is a bit brief here. You see, last night I sliced my right index finger open on a kitchen knife and had to get it glued shut by a doctor. Said finger is now all wrapped up in gauze so I'm making fat-finger typos all over the place. Oh, and my right arm is throbbing from the tetanus shot they gave me.

Alright, enough whining -- well, at least whining about my arm.

The Chargers suffered their first real frustrating loss this season, and it didn't take many fans long to start whining about the team and the Fire Norv chants to come out. Given how much hate was coming out of San Diego this week, I expected the pundits to hitch their wagon to the same movement and drop the Chargers way down. Thankfully, cooler heads have prevailed a bit and they only dropped 4 spots this week. As you'll see in later charts, this is both good and bad.

Notable Quotes

Sports Illustrated

The Chargers have themselves a Philip Rivers problem. In five of San Diego's six games, Rivers has had as many or more turnovers than he has touchdown passes, and that's not the ratio you're looking for. In the second half against the Jets, the Chargers were shut out, amassed just 117 yards of offense, went 1 of 7 on third down, and Rivers threw a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions, both of which led to New York scores. Rivers has been the least of the concerns in San Diego for the past five seasons, but he's in one of the worst six-game stretches of his career.

Fox Sports

Have to drop the Chargers, but there is no shame in losing on the East Coast to a good team. It was disappointing to give up an 11-point lead, and totally botching the two-minute drill is curious. The Chargers' secondary got eaten up by Plaxico Burress in the red zone.

SportingNews

Didn't seem to have a clue what to do on their final drive.

Subjective Average

	Subjective

Packers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.000	0.000
Patriots	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2.083	0.276
Saints	3	3	8	4	3	4	3	4	5	3	2	3	3.750	1.479
49ers	4	4	3	3	4	3	4	6	3	4	4	4	3.833	0.799
Steelers	5	5	4	5	6	5	5	3	4	5	5	5	4.750	0.722
Ravens	6	6	6	8	5	7	6	5	6	6	6	6	6.083	0.759
Lions	8	11	9	9	8	9	9	10	8	8	8	8	8.750	0.924
Giants	11	12	5	11	10	6	8	7	7	10	10	9	8.833	2.115
Bills	7	8	7	15	7	13	7	12	10	11	9	7	9.417	2.660
Chargers	9	7	10	13	9	10	10	8	11	14	7	14	10.167	2.339
Texans	12	10	11	6	12	12	11	11	12	13	11	11	11.000	1.683
Falcons	14	9	12	7	16	16	13	9	13	7	18	13	12.250	3.443
Bears	10	14	16	12	15	14	14	14	15	12	14	10	13.333	1.841
Bengals	16	15	13	17	11	8	12	15	9	20	12	15	13.583	3.278
Jets	13	13	20	10	14	17	15	13	14	9	13	12	13.583	2.783
Buccaneers	17	16	17	16	17	15	17	16	17	16	15	16	16.250	0.722
Raiders	15	19	15	18	13	11	18	18	18	18	17	18	16.500	2.363
Cowboys	18	18	14	14	18	18	16	19	16	15	16	17	16.583	1.605
Eagles	22	17	21	19	19	21	19	17	21	17	20	19	19.333	1.650
Titans	19	24	19	22	21	23	21	21	19	19	22	21	20.917	1.605
Chiefs	21	22	24	21	20	20	20	20	22	21	21	23	21.250	1.233
Redskins	20	21	18	23	22	22	22	24	20	23	19	22	21.333	1.700
Panthers	23	20	22	20	24	19	23	22	23	22	26	20	22.000	1.915
Browns	24	23	23	28	23	24	24	23	24	25	23	25	24.083	1.382
Jaguars	25	27	25	24	25	26	25	26	27	24	24	24	25.167	1.067
Broncos	27	25	27	26	27	25	26	27	26	26	25	26	26.083	0.759
Seahawks	26	28	26	29	26	27	28	28	25	27	28	27	27.083	1.115
Vikings	28	26	28	25	28	28	27	25	29	28	29	28	27.417	1.320
Cardinals	29	29	29	27	29	29	29	29	28	29	27	29	28.583	0.759
Rams	30	31	30	31	31	31	30	32	30	31	30	30	30.583	0.640
Dolphins	31	30	31	32	30	32	31	31	31	30	32	31	31.000	0.707
Colts	32	32	32	30	32	30	32	30	32	32	31	32	31.417	0.862

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

Packers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.000	0.000
Patriots	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2.083	0.276
Rams	30	31	30	31	31	31	30	32	30	31	30	30	30.583	0.640
Dolphins	31	30	31	32	30	32	31	31	31	30	32	31	31.000	0.707
Steelers	5	5	4	5	6	5	5	3	4	5	5	5	4.750	0.722
Buccaneers	17	16	17	16	17	15	17	16	17	16	15	16	16.250	0.722
Ravens	6	6	6	8	5	7	6	5	6	6	6	6	6.083	0.759
Broncos	27	25	27	26	27	25	26	27	26	26	25	26	26.083	0.759
Cardinals	29	29	29	27	29	29	29	29	28	29	27	29	28.583	0.759
49ers	4	4	3	3	4	3	4	6	3	4	4	4	3.833	0.799
Colts	32	32	32	30	32	30	32	30	32	32	31	32	31.417	0.862
Lions	8	11	9	9	8	9	9	10	8	8	8	8	8.750	0.924
Jaguars	25	27	25	24	25	26	25	26	27	24	24	24	25.167	1.067
Seahawks	26	28	26	29	26	27	28	28	25	27	28	27	27.083	1.115
Chiefs	21	22	24	21	20	20	20	20	22	21	21	23	21.250	1.233
Vikings	28	26	28	25	28	28	27	25	29	28	29	28	27.417	1.320
Browns	24	23	23	28	23	24	24	23	24	25	23	25	24.083	1.382
Saints	3	3	8	4	3	4	3	4	5	3	2	3	3.750	1.479
Cowboys	18	18	14	14	18	18	16	19	16	15	16	17	16.583	1.605
Titans	19	24	19	22	21	23	21	21	19	19	22	21	20.917	1.605
Eagles	22	17	21	19	19	21	19	17	21	17	20	19	19.333	1.650
Texans	12	10	11	6	12	12	11	11	12	13	11	11	11.000	1.683
Redskins	20	21	18	23	22	22	22	24	20	23	19	22	21.333	1.700
Bears	10	14	16	12	15	14	14	14	15	12	14	10	13.333	1.841
Panthers	23	20	22	20	24	19	23	22	23	22	26	20	22.000	1.915
Giants	11	12	5	11	10	6	8	7	7	10	10	9	8.833	2.115
Chargers	9	7	10	13	9	10	10	8	11	14	7	14	10.167	2.339
Raiders	15	19	15	18	13	11	18	18	18	18	17	18	16.500	2.363
Bills	7	8	7	15	7	13	7	12	10	11	9	7	9.417	2.660
Jets	13	13	20	10	14	17	15	13	14	9	13	12	13.583	2.783
Bengals	16	15	13	17	11	8	12	15	9	20	12	15	13.583	3.278
Falcons	14	9	12	7	16	16	13	9	13	7	18	13	12.250	3.443

Objective Average

	Objective

Packers	1	3	1	1	2	1	1.500	0.764
Patriots	3	6	3	5	5	4	4.333	1.106
49ers	4	16	2	2	1	3	4.667	5.153
Saints	6	2	6	3	7	9	5.500	2.363
Bills	8	12	8	6	4	7	7.500	2.432
Lions	13	10	7	4	6	5	7.500	3.096
Ravens	5	7	16	9	8	2	7.833	4.298
Texans	7	1	17	12	11	6	9.000	5.066
Cowboys	11	4	12	8	19	11	10.833	4.525
Bears	15	15	5	7	10	14	11.000	3.958
Jets	2	13	15	11	14	12	11.167	4.298
Bengals	14	19	10	13	3	13	12.000	4.831
Steelers	10	5	14	15	13	17	12.333	3.902
Falcons	12	26	4	10	15	10	12.833	6.743
Giants	9	8	19	20	16	8	13.333	5.153
Chargers	18	11	13	14	17	19	15.333	2.867
Raiders	17	20	18	17	9	21	17.000	3.873
Eagles	16	9	20	18	22	22	17.833	4.488
Buccaneers	19	31	9	16	12	25	18.667	7.498
Panthers	23	17	22	21	20	18	20.167	2.115
Chiefs	24	28	11	19	18	27	21.167	5.871
Redskins	22	14	28	23	21	20	21.333	4.150
Vikings	20	25	25	25	24	15	22.333	3.727
Titans	21	18	23	22	27	26	22.833	3.023
Broncos	26	23	26	24	30	23	25.333	2.427
Jaguars	28	21	24	27	25	29	25.667	2.687
Browns	25	30	27	28	29	16	25.833	4.670
Seahawks	29	32	21	26	23	24	25.833	3.716
Cardinals	30	27	29	29	28	28	28.500	0.957
Dolphins	27	24	31	30	32	30	29.000	2.708
Rams	32	22	32	32	26	32	29.333	3.944
Colts	31	29	30	31	31	31	30.500	0.764

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

Packers	1	3	1	1	2	1	1.500	0.764
Colts	31	29	30	31	31	31	30.500	0.764
Cardinals	30	27	29	29	28	28	28.500	0.957
Patriots	3	6	3	5	5	4	4.333	1.106
Panthers	23	17	22	21	20	18	20.167	2.115
Saints	6	2	6	3	7	9	5.500	2.363
Broncos	26	23	26	24	30	23	25.333	2.427
Bills	8	12	8	6	4	7	7.500	2.432
Jaguars	28	21	24	27	25	29	25.667	2.687
Dolphins	27	24	31	30	32	30	29.000	2.708
Chargers	18	11	13	14	17	19	15.333	2.867
Titans	21	18	23	22	27	26	22.833	3.023
Lions	13	10	7	4	6	5	7.500	3.096
Seahawks	29	32	21	26	23	24	25.833	3.716
Vikings	20	25	25	25	24	15	22.333	3.727
Raiders	17	20	18	17	9	21	17.000	3.873
Steelers	10	5	14	15	13	17	12.333	3.902
Rams	32	22	32	32	26	32	29.333	3.944
Bears	15	15	5	7	10	14	11.000	3.958
Redskins	22	14	28	23	21	20	21.333	4.150
Ravens	5	7	16	9	8	2	7.833	4.298
Jets	2	13	15	11	14	12	11.167	4.298
Eagles	16	9	20	18	22	22	17.833	4.488
Cowboys	11	4	12	8	19	11	10.833	4.525
Browns	25	30	27	28	29	16	25.833	4.670
Bengals	14	19	10	13	3	13	12.000	4.831
Texans	7	1	17	12	11	6	9.000	5.066
Giants	9	8	19	20	16	8	13.333	5.153
49ers	4	16	2	2	1	3	4.667	5.153
Chiefs	24	28	11	19	18	27	21.167	5.871
Falcons	12	26	4	10	15	10	12.833	6.743
Buccaneers	19	31	9	16	12	25	18.667	7.498

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

Packers	1.000	1.500	1.250	0.500	0.500
Patriots	2.083	4.333	3.208	1.258	2.250
49ers	3.833	4.667	4.250	3.071	0.833
Saints	3.750	5.500	4.625	2.000	1.750
Ravens	6.083	7.833	6.958	2.687	1.750
Lions	8.750	7.500	8.125	2.028	-1.250
Bills	9.417	7.500	8.458	2.740	-1.917
Steelers	4.750	12.333	8.542	4.266	7.583
Texans	11.000	9.000	10.000	3.367	-2.000
Giants	8.833	13.333	11.083	4.042	4.500
Bears	13.333	11.000	12.167	2.948	-2.333
Jets	13.583	11.167	12.375	3.552	-2.417
Falcons	12.250	12.833	12.542	4.810	0.583
Chargers	10.167	15.333	12.750	3.510	5.167
Bengals	13.583	12.000	12.792	3.937	-1.583
Cowboys	16.583	10.833	13.708	3.986	-5.750
Raiders	16.500	17.000	16.750	2.963	0.500
Buccaneers	16.250	18.667	17.458	4.515	2.417
Eagles	19.333	17.833	18.583	3.005	-1.500
Panthers	22.000	20.167	21.083	2.164	-1.833
Chiefs	21.250	21.167	21.208	3.536	-0.083
Redskins	21.333	21.333	21.333	2.769	0.000
Titans	20.917	22.833	21.875	2.362	1.917
Vikings	27.417	22.333	24.875	3.396	-5.083
Browns	24.083	25.833	24.958	3.037	1.750
Jaguars	25.167	25.667	25.417	1.795	0.500
Broncos	26.083	25.333	25.708	1.572	-0.750
Seahawks	27.083	25.833	26.458	2.404	-1.250
Cardinals	28.583	28.500	28.542	0.832	-0.083
Rams	30.583	29.333	29.958	2.410	-1.250
Dolphins	31.000	29.000	30.000	1.915	-2.000
Colts	31.417	30.500	30.958	0.936	-0.917

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Packers	1.000	1.500	1.250	0.500	0.500
Cardinals	28.583	28.500	28.542	0.832	-0.083
Colts	31.417	30.500	30.958	0.936	-0.917
Patriots	2.083	4.333	3.208	1.258	2.250
Broncos	26.083	25.333	25.708	1.572	-0.750
Jaguars	25.167	25.667	25.417	1.795	0.500
Dolphins	31.000	29.000	30.000	1.915	-2.000
Saints	3.750	5.500	4.625	2.000	1.750
Lions	8.750	7.500	8.125	2.028	-1.250
Panthers	22.000	20.167	21.083	2.164	-1.833
Titans	20.917	22.833	21.875	2.362	1.917
Seahawks	27.083	25.833	26.458	2.404	-1.250
Rams	30.583	29.333	29.958	2.410	-1.250
Ravens	6.083	7.833	6.958	2.687	1.750
Bills	9.417	7.500	8.458	2.740	-1.917
Redskins	21.333	21.333	21.333	2.769	0.000
Bears	13.333	11.000	12.167	2.948	-2.333
Raiders	16.500	17.000	16.750	2.963	0.500
Eagles	19.333	17.833	18.583	3.005	-1.500
Browns	24.083	25.833	24.958	3.037	1.750
49ers	3.833	4.667	4.250	3.071	0.833
Texans	11.000	9.000	10.000	3.367	-2.000
Vikings	27.417	22.333	24.875	3.396	-5.083
Chargers	10.167	15.333	12.750	3.510	5.167
Chiefs	21.250	21.167	21.208	3.536	-0.083
Jets	13.583	11.167	12.375	3.552	-2.417
Bengals	13.583	12.000	12.792	3.937	-1.583
Cowboys	16.583	10.833	13.708	3.986	-5.750
Giants	8.833	13.333	11.083	4.042	4.500
Steelers	4.750	12.333	8.542	4.266	7.583
Buccaneers	16.250	18.667	17.458	4.515	2.417
Falcons	12.250	12.833	12.542	4.810	0.583

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

Steelers	4.750	12.333	8.542	4.266	7.583
Chargers	10.167	15.333	12.750	3.510	5.167
Giants	8.833	13.333	11.083	4.042	4.500
Buccaneers	16.250	18.667	17.458	4.515	2.417
Patriots	2.083	4.333	3.208	1.258	2.250
Titans	20.917	22.833	21.875	2.362	1.917
Ravens	6.083	7.833	6.958	2.687	1.750
Browns	24.083	25.833	24.958	3.037	1.750
Saints	3.750	5.500	4.625	2.000	1.750
49ers	3.833	4.667	4.250	3.071	0.833
Falcons	12.250	12.833	12.542	4.810	0.583
Jaguars	25.167	25.667	25.417	1.795	0.500
Packers	1.000	1.500	1.250	0.500	0.500
Raiders	16.500	17.000	16.750	2.963	0.500
Redskins	21.333	21.333	21.333	2.769	0.000
Chiefs	21.250	21.167	21.208	3.536	-0.083
Cardinals	28.583	28.500	28.542	0.832	-0.083
Broncos	26.083	25.333	25.708	1.572	-0.750
Colts	31.417	30.500	30.958	0.936	-0.917
Seahawks	27.083	25.833	26.458	2.404	-1.250
Rams	30.583	29.333	29.958	2.410	-1.250
Lions	8.750	7.500	8.125	2.028	-1.250
Eagles	19.333	17.833	18.583	3.005	-1.500
Bengals	13.583	12.000	12.792	3.937	-1.583
Panthers	22.000	20.167	21.083	2.164	-1.833
Bills	9.417	7.500	8.458	2.740	-1.917
Texans	11.000	9.000	10.000	3.367	-2.000
Dolphins	31.000	29.000	30.000	1.915	-2.000
Bears	13.333	11.000	12.167	2.948	-2.333
Jets	13.583	11.167	12.375	3.552	-2.417
Vikings	27.417	22.333	24.875	3.396	-5.083
Cowboys	16.583	10.833	13.708	3.986	-5.750

Sources

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Comments

At least the Steelers have wrested the

“Most Overrated Team” title from us.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 26, 2011 4:01 PM PDT reply actions

That is something I can hang my hat on

I hate scooter pie

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Oct 26, 2011 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Standard deviation comment

I’m not sure the standard deviation chart is actually displaying teams that have the most variation in how they’re ranked from site-to-site.

Basically, teams in the middle of the rankings will always be subject to more variation (not just because they’re perceived as tougher to rank) because there are more slots available for them to deviate towards.

For example, the Packers cannot range from 1 "up" to negative 30, only from 1 down to 32. The odds of ranking systems differing in 31 full units is significantly less than the odds of a team ranked 16/17 being ranked 1 or 32. In essence, the teams ranked closer towards the bounds of the rankings have less realistic – in the mathematical sense, not just the practical one — units to which their rankings can differ.

This means that a team ranked 3 in one poll being ranked 8 in another is a more mathematically robust difference than a team ranked 16 being ranked 21 in another. This should be reflected in the standard deviation chart. One way to do this would be taking the maximum deviation that any team exhibits in a week (divided by two) as a baseline. Say, for example, that some team differs by 12. Each team can then have their deviations scaled in a way that apapts to the number of units they can move to on either side, capped at 6 in any direction.

In other words, a straight standard deviation in a double-bounded rank-order list is rather insignificant.

by Marver on Oct 26, 2011 6:31 PM PDT reply actions

At some level I think that was a known problem

But I never thought of an answer to it. Unfortunatly, I’m not a bigger math nerd, or else I could help more.
But your post got me thinking, what if you used a Bell curve of normal distribution that went from a variation of -31 to +31 and used that distribution multipling it (or dividing , idk, I would have to do both to know which one is the right one) by the rank. At first I though something like an exponential curve, with the medium ranks being divided by higher numbers, but maybe the normal distribution is better.
What I’m trying to say is “HELP!”.

by Lightning Hobo on Oct 27, 2011 2:24 AM PDT up reply actions

Didn’t seem to have a clue what to do on their final drive.

Dammit, I’m so sick of hearing that. That moron Peter King had a similar jab. As if Rivers and Norv have NEVER run a successful 2 minute drill. As if going 80 yards in 90 seconds with no timeouts against one of the best defenses in football was just a walk in the freaking park. As if no other great QB or offense has ever failed to drive down and score in a similar situation.

They DID know what they were doing, they just didn’t do it well enough. The crossing routes were good ideas, credit to the Jets for making those tackles inbounds. Throws don’t always connect. Teams don’t always execute 100% of the time. It happens. This is real life, not Madden.

by CABurrito on Oct 26, 2011 9:49 PM PDT reply actions

Can't believe anybody would defend that mess...

Were we watching the same game? You’d expect that a team with post-season aspirations would execute on at least one play in a 2-minute drill. The problem with Rivers this year is named Norv. Rivers is out of sync with his coach, but so is everybody else, including all Bolt fans, except, I guess, CABurrito.

by jgogek on Oct 26, 2011 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions

How is Rivers out of sync with his coach?

It has been the same system for five years. They’ve always been together. Nothing has changed.

I hate scooter pie

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Oct 26, 2011 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions

You’d expect that a team with post-season aspirations would execute on at least one play in a 2-minute drill.

You mean like the very first play they executed, an 18 yard pass to Gates? Clearly we weren’t watching the same game.

Rivers is out of sync with his coach,

And the evidence of this is… what?

by CABurrito on Oct 27, 2011 6:19 AM PDT up reply actions

Throwing away the ball on fourth down was either a protest against a bad play called,

or the dumbest thing Phillip Rivers has ever done in his entire life.

Take your pick.

by PNSter on Oct 27, 2011 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions

I pick neither

Your question is invalid because your premise is invalid. IMO, Rivers didn’t throw the ball away. He knew (correctly) that the Chargers only shot was a deep out, which would advance them far enough up the field and allow them to get out of bounds in order to give them one decent shot at a final hail mary. That’s the choice he made, and his throw was poor. It happens. For a similar situation, see Tom Brady’s final throw of the Super Bowl back in 2008.

Even if we accept your incorrect premise and assume he was throwing it away, your choices are questionable at best.

The first, that Rivers was “protesting a play call”, is just incredibly stupid. You would have us believe that Philip Rivers, a professional football player and top competitor who hates to lose, would deliberately (and literally) throw a game away out of protest of a playcall? Are you freaking serious? Only someone who knows nothing of the NFL and Philip Rivers could even entertain such a possibility.

I suppose it would have to be the second option by default, though again we know that Rivers would only throw the ball away if he didn’t know it was 4th down. Would forgetting/losing track of a down during the chaos of the last seconds of a football game be the stupidest thing he’s ever done? I suppose its possible.

by CABurrito on Oct 27, 2011 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions

To me the 4th down play was not the biggest screw up on the final drive.

I was more disappointed with the two short passes that were completed earlier on the dirve allowing the clock to run down. At that point in the game Rivers either has to try and force it downfield or throw it away and stop the clock, gaining 4 yards and giving up 25 seconds two straight plays just wasn’t an option (or at least not a winning one).

Once they got to 4th down with 11 seconds to go the game was over, the 50 seconds that they threw away were the killer.

by JeromeB on Oct 28, 2011 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions