Progress: Comparing the 2011 San Diego Chargers to the 2010 San Diego Chargers

by John Gennaro on Oct 18, 2011 10:56 AM PDT in San Diego Chargers Statistics

We know that after 5 games the San Diego Chargers are 4-1, a step up from their usual 2-3 under Norv Turner. However, do we really know how much better this year's team has been as opposed to those 2-3 squads? I want to do a comparison of more than just records, using this year's team against last year's team that finished 9-7.

Points Scored
2010: 140
2011: 120

Points Allowed
2010: 106
2011: 109

It would only make sense that the Chargers, with all of the red zone troubles without Antonio Gates this season, would've scored more points in 2010. What's a little shocking is that the defense hasn't seemed to change much, despite new personnel and a new Defensive Coordinator.

Turnover Margin
2010: -2
2011: -5

Sacks Allowed
2010: 11
2011: 13

Sacks
2010: 18
2011: 8

Let's stop for a second. The 2011 Chargers have scored less points, allowed more points, forced less turnovers, turned the ball over more, sacked less and allowed more sacks than the 2010 Chargers. Is that right? That can't be right. It feels like I'm cherry-picking stats here, but I'm not. Let's try a few more.

First Downs
2010: 122
2011: 128

YAY! Finally one that goes in 2011's favor. Although, that number could be inflated with the 2011 Bolts having less big plays and more long drives.

Passing Yards
2010: 1,689
2011: 1,467

Rushing Yards
2010: 620
2011: 614

I'm getting tired of this. The 2010 Chargers were obviously better than the 2011 Chargers through the first 5 games of the season. Here's why they lost 3 games over that stretch instead of 1:

Chiefs: The Chargers allowed 30 yards per punt return to Javier Arenas and Dexter McCluster, allowed McCluster to score a TD.

Seahawks: Leon Washington averaged 63 yards per kick return, scoring 2 return TDs.

Raiders: Mike Scifres had two punts blocked (one for a Safety, one for a TD), Philip Rivers lost two fumbles, Mike Tolbert lost a fumble and the Chargers defense forced zero turnovers.

Your Chargers MVP through the first 5 games is apparently Rich Bisaccia, who has not only fixed the issues with the return game but also turned Nick Novak into a FG-kicking robot, and not Ryan Mathews. BFTB apologizes for any earlier confusion.

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Comments

Do the 2010 points allowed numbers

include the return TDs?

"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner

by Cake or Death on Oct 18, 2011 11:20 AM PDT reply actions

Yes

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Oct 18, 2011 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Interesting

It’s so tough to analyze last year’s defense.

"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner

by Cake or Death on Oct 18, 2011 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions

It's not that hard

It’s just going to take more that looking at the NFL.com stats page.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Oct 18, 2011 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Well, Rich Bisaccia

And the NFL. The whole kickoff rule change has helped a bit. What are the comparisons on KO returns?

6/10/2010 - Tra Thomas signs with the Chargers
8/21/2010 - Tra Thomas retires.

That was fast.

by SD FTW on Oct 18, 2011 11:38 AM PDT reply actions

I'd also like to know the Time of Possession difference

"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner

by Cake or Death on Oct 18, 2011 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

That would take forever

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Oct 18, 2011 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Haha, no worries

"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner

by Cake or Death on Oct 18, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Is my request doable?

6/10/2010 - Tra Thomas signs with the Chargers
8/21/2010 - Tra Thomas retires.

That was fast.

by SD FTW on Oct 18, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Avg time of possession For first five games

2010: 34:10

2011: 35:16

I hate scooter pie

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Oct 18, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Every minute counts!

twss

Dielman on Rivers: "I've tried to get him to say s--- or f--- and all he'll ever do is say, 'Golly gee, I can't do that."
Bolts from the Blue

by Superduperboltman on Oct 18, 2011 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions

You can't twss yourself.

Bolts from the Blue // "I eat cereal out of a giant novelty wine glass because it makes me feel fancy." - Britney Wade
Bloody Elbow // "I think we're poking fun at Leland's 'boner.'" - Michael Fagan

by Richard Wade on Oct 19, 2011 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Also take into account

that we may have had more possessions in 2010 due to the return TDs

"The biggest thing..." - Norv Turner

by Cake or Death on Oct 18, 2011 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Also we had 40:08 in denver

I hate scooter pie

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Oct 18, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

This year*

I hate scooter pie

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Oct 18, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Kickoff Return Numbers

2010 (through 5 games): 25 returns, 634 yards (25.36 yards per return), 2 TDs

2011: 13 returns, 379 yards (29.15 yards per return), 1 TD

So maybe it’s not better, it’s just the combo of the new rules and Nick Novak’s big leg that’s keeping the Chargers from killing themselves on kickoffs regularly.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Oct 18, 2011 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions

You also have to take into account the average spot of return

I hate scooter pie

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Oct 18, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Starting spot*

I hate scooter pie

by Lmbs2slaghtr on Oct 18, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Yup

29 yards from the back of the endzone is much different than 25 yards from the 10

6/10/2010 - Tra Thomas signs with the Chargers
8/21/2010 - Tra Thomas retires.

That was fast.

by SD FTW on Oct 18, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

True

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Oct 18, 2011 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

John, Lmbs2slaghtr, you guys are awesome

Those were really fast replies

by Lightning Hobo on Oct 18, 2011 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions

saw something

thyat said the chargers are first in time of possession. Which helps the defense. But, TOP doesn’t always equate wins. We’ve won many games the last few years where we were on the short end of TOP. I am surprised that the rushing yardage is practically the same. If the passing game gets back to what we’re accustomed too, this team could be very good. But, till then, middle of the pack.

by irishlad on Oct 19, 2011 1:38 AM PDT up reply actions

2010 was a high water mark

They were the #1 Offence for most of that season. Shouldn’t you expect some degree of drop off for all other seasons?

by Trendsearcher on Oct 18, 2011 12:46 PM PDT reply actions

Except they weren't really the #1 offense.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 18, 2011 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

At least Norv is consistent. and it's a good thing

But i’d like to argue , " Stats don’t lie, but they do not tell the whole truth". what do i mean?
look directly at the “special teams issues”. The Chargers were playing from behind on these debacles, which has three results.
1) the running game goes out the window, result lower rushing yards.
2) they have to pass moar. more first downs more receiving yards, yadda, yadda….
3) The D has a shorter field. less big plays over their heads, less numbers to out up on the defense, less first downs, less yardage against them, even id opposing offenses score.

My assessment, the Chargers are playing the same. the only real change, is the rules on kickoffs. this is the only thing that has significantly helped the Chargers.

The peanut gallery has spoken!!!

by gatesoftds on Oct 18, 2011 1:22 PM PDT reply actions

It's difficult to compare these two teams

They really are a completely different team. They have new coaches on Defense and Special teams. And you are kidding yourself if you say that this offense has the same strengths and weaknesses as the offense last year.

Also look at the strategy in the games this year. Other than the Vikings and Patriots games, the Chargers have been playing from a modest lead. This means more Prevent Defenses and more conservative play-calling (notice I said conservative play-calling, not running game).

This year’s Offense is more of a running team (I know they have less rushing yards, just hear me out). If you think about it, short passes are the equivalent to a running game (more like a draw play than a power play) where you don’t have to rely as heavily on the play-making ability of the offensive line. The Guards (Vasquez and Dielman) have done very well with the running game, but all of the other lineman are similar to what they were last year.

Also one last thing. I have yet to see a Norv Turner led Chargers team not improve as the season goes on. So we will see where this team is at the end of the year once all of the games have been played.

by Ferguson1015 on Oct 18, 2011 1:25 PM PDT reply actions

I think this shows more that last year's team was better than the record says

Aside from the turnover margin and this year’s sack total, these are respectable stats

by Kevron on Oct 18, 2011 2:12 PM PDT via iPhone app reply actions

Here's a comparison using DVOA through 5 games:

Total DVOA:
2010: 10.6%
2011: -3.5%

Total Offense:
2010: 20.4%
2011: 8.2%

Total Defense:
2010: -19.5%
2011: 9.1%

Total Special Teams:
2010: -21.3%
2011: -2.6%

I can’t find specific passing/rushing numbers as of a specific week for 2010.

As we can see, the team is worse in pretty much every facet save special teams. I have no idea how to explain why they’re winning this year, in that the schedule has actually been harder than last year. In 2010, through 5 games the average DVOA of their opponents was -13%. This year, their opponents have had an an average of -0.6% DVOA. Although, three of their opponents this year have a DVOA worse than the Chargers, while two are better.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 18, 2011 2:34 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Man, we suck!

Quick! Where’s the panic button!?!?

by Lightning Hobo on Oct 18, 2011 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions

LOLZ

Why it look so different from what John talk about?

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Oct 18, 2011 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

You transposed some numbers here

The 2010 Total DVOA you have there is as off the end of week 6. The rest of the numbers are as of the end of week 5.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Oct 18, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Whoops.

Thanks. Total DVOA should be 18.7%.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 18, 2011 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Just eyeballing some of the numbers

The 2011 run defense looks way worse the 2010 run defense by DVOA.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Oct 18, 2011 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Passing and run defense both significantly worse.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 18, 2011 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions

And the numbers are even worse

now that the latest update has come out. Basically, we suck, and our record is pretty inexplicable. Unless they suddenly start playing better, there’s no way we’ll keep winning.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 18, 2011 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions

You are speaking as if the numbers represent our current state

That is not true. They represent the past. You shouldn’t say the “we suck”, you should say that “we have sucked and are likely to continue to suck.” Although, since the Chargers’ DAVE rating is still average, you could also refrain from the “likely to continue to suck” part and replace it with something more in lines with the Chargers being an average team.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Oct 18, 2011 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

That's a better way of putting it.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 18, 2011 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions

We sucked! But somehow our opponents were even worse.

by Lightning Hobo on Oct 19, 2011 3:50 AM PDT up reply actions

If I remember correctly,

The 2 wins at the start of 2011 were BIG wins. Cards and Jags, if I recall. Lots of sacks, lots of points turnovers, yards. So, I wonder if perhaps the 2010 stats are perhaps a bit misleading – a few bad games and 2 awesome games. In other words, maybe the 2010 isn’t better overall, they just got in a couple blowouts that haven’t yet happened this year.

by counterpoint on Oct 18, 2011 3:35 PM PDT reply actions

Great minds - I was just thinking the same thing

We dominated two bad teams last year and got beat by special team failures in three others. This year, we have squeaked by some pretty bad teams and gotten beat by one really good team. No blowouts either way.

North Texas REALLY needs a Rubio's franchise.

by SDNativeinTX on Oct 18, 2011 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions

That's a nice way to look at it

by Scard on Oct 18, 2011 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd like to think that but

This year they have played four teams that are just as bad as the jags and cards last year and barely beat them and played a great team and barely lost.
If anything the only difference I have seen is that they are much more consistantly slightly above average this year whereas last year they played amazingly in about four maybe five games, average in some and terrible in others.

"I promise you, we’re going to build a dictating, dominating, attacking defense. I’ve said it a million times. It’s not a slight on our offense, but we’re not going to win any world championship until we have that." - A.J. Smith

by njg425 on Oct 18, 2011 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

what I was thinking. Garbage time stats can be easy to wrack up. Thus the joke about the statistician who put his head in the oven and his feet in the freezer and said, ‘On average I feel just fine.’ Last year the Chargers were that statistician.

The play of chance and probability within which the creative spirit is free to roam. -von Clausewitz 'On Football'

by Brian (DaBolts) on Oct 19, 2011 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions