Chargers vs. Chiefs Preview: Chargers on offense
by John Gennaro on Sep 8, 2010 2:00 PM PDT
Email
PrintWeek 1 game previews are pretty much guesswork. I think last year I predicted a 30 point victory over the Raiders heading into week 1, only to see Philip Rivers drag the team to a close victory and the team barely escape Oakland alive. So take the below preview for what it's worth: analyzing matchups based upon the beginning of preseason games and a 2009 season in which both teams were very different.
Running the ball
Kansas City has spent a lot of money (and high draft picks) and stopping the run. The key to Scott Pioli's Patriots teams always seemed to be the big, talented defensive line, and it would appear he's building the Chiefs in the same mold. With that being said, are the kids at the point yet where they can be relied upon to stop the league's best running backs? Let's look at how the starters did against them in the preseason:
Michael Turner: 4 carries, 29 yards.
Cadillac Williams/Derrick Ward: 7 carries, 18 yards.
LeSean McCoy: 5 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD.
Outside of the Tampa Bay game, and that is a team with a terrible offensive line and a starting RB (Ward) so bad that he was cut, the run D hasn't been spectacular. Their LBs have some good pass-rushers, but no great run-stopped, and to be really stout against the run they're going to need Ron Edwards to turn into a really good Nose Tackle.
Let's take a quick look at how Mathews fared in his preseason games (by the way, if you haven't noticed, I'm pretty much pretending that the 4th preseason game never happened because it was so useless to everybody).
vs Bears: 9 carries, 50 yards.
vs Cowboys: 12 carries, 53 yards.
at Saints: 13 carries, 43 yards.
I'm a little sad, but excited, that the kid hasn't gotten into the endzone yet. Sad because he's run really well and I don't want him to think he'll have issues getting in, excited because I know how driven he's going to be to score 6 for his team in Week 1. Still, even without a score Mathews has shown a consistent ability to get tough yardage, make big plays and generally ignite a running attack that has been dead for two years.
Add a coach who wants to prove his new offensive philosophy to the team and the viewers at home to an offensive line with something to prove and a running back who has a desire to be dominant and you have a Chargers team that is going to do everything it can to try to run the ball down the throat of a Kansas City defense that has not been very good at stopping the run.
If we travel back to last season, when the Chiefs' defense was roughly the same in terms of personnel, you will notice that they ranked 31st in rushing yards given up per game and also in rushing yards given up per attempt. This was one of the league's worst rushing defenses. Heck, even LaDainian Tomlinson wasn't that bad against them. To think that Ryan Mathews could be effective against them does not take much stretching of the imagination.
Advantage: Chargers
Passing the ball
With one of the league's best passing attacks in 2009, the Chargers turned out to be a poor matchup for the Chiefs and their 26th worst passing defense. Let's take a look at how Philip Rivers fared on those two games:
El Capitan - 39/58 (67.2%), 558 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs.
Isn't that just the picture of efficiency? That, my friends, is why the Chargers won each game by more than 4 touchdowns.
So, what has changed since then? Well, remove Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill. Add in rookies Eric Berry and Javier Arenas. Is it enough to move the completion percentage down one point? Perhaps. Is it enough to take away 1 TD and replace it with an INT? Maybe, if you ignore the fact that this is one of the league's smartest QBs going up against players that will be in a regular season NFL game (on prime time) for the very first time.
Now, I've been dancing around this for a while, but I am more confident in the 2010 Chargers offense than I was with the 2009 offense. With the 2009 offense, even if the team was facing a good secondary (like the Bengals) they were still forced to go to the air to win the game and a handful of those victories could've been losses if the ball had bounced another way or the team had been less disciplined.
The 2010 Chargers offense is a chameleon with fangs, ready to turn into whatever weapon works best and strike with force. Can't stop the run? Get ready for a 3-headed beast of Mathew, Mike Tolbert and Darren Sproles. Can't stop the deep pass? Malcom Floyd, Buster Davis and Patrick Crayton would very much like to show you how fast than can run. Can't defend Antonio Gates? Well, that pretty much puts you in the same boat as everybody else, but that doesn't mean that Gatesy and Rivers won't have fun pointing it out. Can't stop the short pass against big, physical receivers? Legedu Naanee and Buster Davis will be having an exhibition on how to catch balls in traffic about 7-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
My point is this: in terms of big plays, this offense may have taken a step back. However, in terms of consistency I believe it took a big step forward. That includes the passing offense as well, and I think (even if it takes a full half) the Chargers will find out where the weakness of this Chiefs defense is and attack it.
Advantage: Chargers
18 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
one bright sife to matthews not scoring
is it has given him more time to work on a TD dance!
"i'm not inclined to resign to maturity"...PSYCH theme
by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Sep 8, 2010 2:55 PM PDT reply actions
But you can’t stop a man from dreaming…
by Lightning Hobo on Sep 8, 2010 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions
In college...
It looks like he just hands the ball to the ref. I hope it stays the same way in the NFL. LT’s little ball flip turned into one of the most annoying things I’ve ever seen. What the hell was that? Seriously? And just so you know I’m not claiming sour grapes, I started complaining about this back in the 2006 season.
Yeah, I agree.
The Chiefs will be able to run the ball. That’s the only phase I have them pegged to win. They won’t be able to stop the San Diego offense for long, though they have a chance to keep it close early, or maybe even build off a turnover perhaps. Otherwise, this will make it harder to run the ball in the second half.
One thing about good pass defenses, and I think KC will have one, is that they can sometimes turn around any passing game. But I trust the San Diego DL committee more than I trust the highly-drafted youngsters, and I think Ryan Mathews will make it hard for KC to cover the Chargers’ many weapons. I think SD has to come out looking sluggish once again if KC is to have a chance. I think KC is the kind of team that can make them look sluggish.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 8, 2010 3:10 PM PDT reply actions
A few more numbers regarding the Chiefs run defense.
Here are the remainder of the first string numbers from the preseason(left out GB for obvious reasons):
vs Atl: Snelling 11 carries, 24 yards
vs. Phi: Bell/Weaver 11 carries, 29 yards(McCoy was 4 carries, 10 yards after the second play of the game)
That’s all the first team vs. first team stats. Also the “worst” of the stats came against Turner and Atlantas oline which are markedly better and more proven then the Chargers.
In the preseason against teams that proved pretty weak versus the run, Matthews put up a less then impressive 4.2 ypc. All of that against Dallas(4.4 ypc to Michael Bush, nearly 9 ypc to Miami, and 6.1 ypc against Foster) Chicago(4.1 ypc to Oak, 7.8 ypc to Hightower) and New Orleans(averaged 4.4 ypc against in preseason).
The Chiefs starting defense on the other hand gave up an average of 3.58 ypc throughout the preseason(all first team snaps included) and lets face it whether you have high hopes for Matthews or not(I personally think he will be a good player) he, like your reasoning behind Berry/Arenas, is still a rookie playing his first game in primetime.
Im not one to pin too much belief in preseason numbers but thats what you are using as your measuring stick and I thought I’d bring up some other numbers as a reference.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
I’m going to assume that when Chris Redman is the QB, the Falcons second-team is in. 4 of Snelling’s carries came after Ryan was taken out. So, against the first team…..
Snelling: 7 carries, 23 yards.
Mike Bell (who has never done anything but had a mediocre half-season with Shanahan in Denver) can hardly be called a good RB, and Leonard Weaver is a FB.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
Regardless
Still 3 ypc agaist a very good offensive line and Mike Bell has done more then Matthews has at this point. You’re using preseason stats to prove your point but clearly there’s another side to those stats that would suggest that the Chiefs run D won’t be the pushover you make them out to be.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
Week 1 game previews are pretty much guesswork. I think last year I predicted a 30 point victory over the Raiders heading into week 1, only to see Philip Rivers drag the team to a close victory and the team barely escape Oakland alive. So take the below preview for what it’s worth: analyzing matchups based upon the beginning of preseason games and a 2009 season in which both teams were very different.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Sep 8, 2010 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Rec'd for honesty
Bolts from the Blue // "It is what it is." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // "Richard is a jewel." - Kid Nate
Have you seen Mathews run?
He’ll do fine setting up action for Rivers.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 8, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I watched every game.
Yes R.Mathews looks good, hell he could be a great back in the future. Have you watched any of the Chiefs pre-season games?
The Chiefs could start a different RB every quarter, and not skip a beat, who’s your 2nd RB again, or do you think he can go the whole game without a rest. From what i saw in our last 2 pre-season games, Mathews better be ready for a pounding, which he shown in the past to not be able to take.
I’m more worried about your short passing game than anything else, but if we play a lot of Nickel defense then Mathews could have a good game, that IMO was when our run defense was lacking.
I also might be buzzing to much from the kool-aid, and Mathews could run for 200 yards and Rivers could pass for 300 yards, but i hope not.
Disclaimer: Comments above are not meant to be taken with a grain of salt.
no 2 RB
I think for short yardage and goal line situations, Mike Tolbert. Third down situations sproles. But, Mathew will probably have most of the carries. There is some merrit to having a change of pace/fresh legs change at RB, but denvers RB by commitee hasn’t worked all that well. Our O line will determine how well our offense does. If they open holes for mathews and give rivers time to find the open man, look out. Our defense needs to contain your running game, not allow any long runs. And, if they can get even a little pressure on cassell occasionally, they can possibly cause him to make a mistake. We can’t afford to give up any easy points. Make them earn every point.
here's to hoping the AP live game thread is
kicking rocks by the 3rd quarter
by boltsgamedayfootball on Sep 8, 2010 11:28 PM PDT reply actions
We very well could be, but i hope not.
Disclaimer: Comments above are not meant to be taken with a grain of salt.
by CPT.Caveman on Sep 11, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Norv loves the long ball
Even without VJax, you know Norv is going to take shots down the field. The simple threat that you must honor the deep pass will keep the underneath opened up. Floyd can get down the field AND out jump defenders. VJax is probably a bit faster and stronger than Floyd, but I’d argue Floyd is better when the ball is in the air. VJax seemed to get a little lax with the ball in the air at times, waiting for it to come to him instead of going after it. Revis pretty much owned him and I think it partially had to do with his overconfidence. Revis went after the ball and I think it took VJax by surprise. Sure, Revis is a freak of nature. But he shouldn’t be able to physically out-muscle a guy Jackson’s size, and he did the entire game. The sad thing is, if they play each other again I think VJax will have the better day since he knows he can’t take an inch for granted against Revis. I just doubt that’s going to be in a Charger’s uniform.
I HATE the Jets, but I have to give Revis his due. His physical talent is only half of what makes him great. The other half is his desire and will to do whatever it takes to make a play. When you put those two together, you get a guy like Revis.
If we can get a run game established,
And once Antonio Gates rules the middle of the field (lets face it, this is inevitable), a lot of one on one coverage looks should open up deep. I have a hard time imagining that at some point we wont take shots deep downfield.
Self anointed President of the Kenjon Barner fan club.
Only after disaster can Tennessee's defense be resurrected -Tyler Durden
Yeah. Second or third drive, probably.
The first drive, he’s going to pound it up the middle over and over, try to soften the DL up a bit, give ’em that “hit in the mouth” feeling, and keep some of that highly-drafted secondary off the field.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 10, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bolts From The Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
BFTB Apparel Store
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
