Much was made, and rightly so, of the Football Outsiders' pre-season projections. As was debated thoroughly at the time, the Chargers did not rank highly in those pre-season projections. Now that we've got a couple week's worth of actual game data, we can see how things are shaping up on the actual football field.
In terms of actual data, the Chargers are doing pretty well. Thanks to FBO, we can see how the top ten teams shake out:| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFFENSE VOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE VOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | GB | 55.5% | 6 | 25.5% | 2 | 2-0 | 31.5% | 4 | -16.5% | 11 | 7.5% | 5 |
| 2 | ATL | 46.2% | 17 | 25.9% | 1 | 1-1 | 19.4% | 6 | -21.1% | 7 | 5.7% | 7 |
| 3 | TB | 31.6% | 16 | -0.7% | 19 | 2-0 | -4.2% | 16 | -30.3% | 4 | 5.4% | 8 |
| 4 | NYJ | 30.1% | 20 | 16.8% | 7 | 1-1 | 4.7% | 12 | -20.8% | 8 | 4.6% | 9 |
| 5 | MIA | 25.1% | 11 | 16.0% | 8 | 2-0 | 0.8% | 14 | -27.1% | 5 | -2.8% | 21 |
| 6 | SEA | 18.9% | 1 | -0.3% | 18 | 1-1 | -9.0% | 19 | -18.6% | 10 | 9.3% | 3 |
| 7 | NE | 18.4% | 3 | 20.7% | 5 | 1-1 | 32.4% | 3 | 21.3% | 29 | 7.4% | 6 |
| 8 | SD | 18.1% | 25 | 0.4% | 17 | 1-1 | 13.5% | 8 | -23.2% | 6 | -18.6% | 32 |
| 9 | PIT | 17.8% | 13 | 24.5% | 3 | 2-0 | -31.9% | 27 | -41.2% | 1 | 8.6% | 4 |
| 10 | HOU | 14.1% | 9 | -10.3% | 23 | 2-0 | 46.2% | 1 | 33.5% | 32 | 1.4% | 13 |
In total DVOA, that's offense, defense, and Special Teams combined, the Chargers rank 8th. That's pretty good. Their overall offense is also 8th, and their defense is 6th. Part of this is obviously opponent--the Jaguars were pretty much awful all around. The Chiefs were terrible on offense. But, for their part, the Chargers have mostly played well. The one negative continues to be special teams.
It's important to remember, though, that two weeks is a really small sample size. For instance, does anyone think that Tampa Bay is going to stick around for very long in the #3 spot? Or Seattle in the #6? That's why FBO has the shaded column, which combines actual data with the pre-season projections. Right now, the "DAVE" ratings are about 25% actual data and 75% projections. Obviously those ratios will start to tilt the opposite way as the season progresses, but right now, with only 2 weeks' worth of actual data, it makes sense to weight more heavily towards the projections As we can see, those numbers look a little more like we'd expect them to. Tampa falls to 19th, Seattle to 18th, and the Chargers to 17th.
The Chargers' ranking of 17th in DAVE is simply a reflection of how poorly the projection system expected them to play. They've done well, but not well enough to drastically effect their positioning. They have moved up from 23rd to 17th, and have improved their -7.8% rating to 0.4%. If the Chargers continue to play well, expect their ranking to rise as the real data takes precedence over the projection. For now, we should be happy the Chargers appear to be playing well and outpacing their projection, and hopefully they continue to do so.
As a note about the Chargers' defensive ranking, I would advise caution with believing this unit can be a top 10 defense. That high defensive ranking (6th, with a -23.2% DVOA) is probably in large part due to the Chiefs' inept offense, and the Jaguars' inability to hold on to the football. The Chargers will not be facing Matt Cassel and David Garrard every week. Of course, I hope that they can sustain that high level of play, but for now I'd remain skeptical until they show that they can do so against a better offensive team.
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