Chargers vs. Chiefs Preview: Chargers on defense
by John Gennaro on Sep 10, 2010 3:00 PM PDT
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PrintBefore I get started, let's revisit my preview of the Chargers offense vs. the Chiefs defense for a moment:
Week 1 game previews are pretty much guesswork. I think last year I predicted a 30 point victory over the Raiders heading into week 1, only to see Philip Rivers drag the team to a close victory and the team barely escape Oakland alive. So take the below preview for what it's worth: analyzing matchups based upon the beginning of preseason games and a 2009 season in which both teams were very different.
Got it? Now, onto the speculation.
Stopping the run
Calm down, Charger fans. Going from one of the league's worst run defenses to one of the league's best is not unheard of. In fact, it happens to a couple of teams every season it seems. Take a look at these transformations from 2008 to 2009.
Packers: 26th to 2nd
Falcons: 28th to 8th
Chargers: 11th to 24th
So the Chargers were good in 2008, and then in 2009 when Jamal Williams went down in week 1, Jacques Cesaire missed all of the preseason and defensive linemen seemed to drop like flies for the first few weeks of the season, things went south. With a (hopefully) healthy line and a couple of beasts playing NT (Antonio Garay and Cam Thomas), the Bolts could conceivably jump back to "average" with their run defense which is really all the offense needs to win games.
The Chiefs were one of the better running teams in 2009, ending up as 8th best in the league for the season after a poor start with Larry Johnson. In 8 games as the starter, Jamaal Charles had four 100+ yd games and 7 TDs and looked very much like one of the league's top running backs along the way. If you want a parallel to that, think about when Larry Johnson did almost the exact same thing in 2005 and then dominated the NFL as the league's 2nd best rusher the following year (trailing LT during his record-breaking season). This could happen again, and adding rookie Darren Sproles-clone Dexter McCluster to their running game only makes them more dangerous on the ground.
Optimism or not, this is a big, big strength for the Chiefs.
Advantage: Chiefs
Stopping the pass
I pointed this out a couple of weeks ago, but it's still fun to look at. Here's Matt Cassel's career line against the San Diego Chargers:
Cassel: 53/98 (54.1%), 493 yards, 2 TDs, 6 INTs
The most wistful version of me is hoping Shawne Merriman sits, Larry English starts and gets a sack or two. I literally have no real memories of Larry from last year, and that picture above of him scaring the bejesus out of Eli Manning doesn't seem like it happened (and I was at that game!). So, with that in mind, I'm going to pretend that Larry is a rookie this year and this is his first year. Go get 'em, rook!
I've been saying the same thing about Matt Cassel since last offseason. When you compare how often he got sacked behind the Pats line to how often Tom Brady got sacked, it became fairly evident that Matt liked to hold onto the ball a little too long. Chiefs fans didn't want to believe me, and they probably still don't even though their line gave up a whopping 45 sacks last year (compared to 37 the year before). That's fine. The point that I'm trying to make here is that a great pass-rush against the Chiefs would be awesome, but it's not absolutely necessary.
So once the ball leaves Matt's hands...there's bound to be trouble, right? Not so much. In one game against the Chargers last season, #1 WR Dwayne Bowe managed 2 catches for 11 yards (1 TD) going up against Quentin Jammer. Chris Chambers had more success, catching 7 passes for 70 yards and 1 TD filling in for Bowe in the second Chargers/Chiefs game. However, I don't see that happening again and here's why:
I think Antoine Cason is a better CB than Antonio Cromartie. I think he's a more complete player, someone that will go up and fight for the ball as well as tackle in run support. Darrelle Revis has shown that the days of being a shutdown "cover corner" are just about over. If you can't jump up and fight for the ball, you are just going to be mediocre. There's a lot more detail to this theory, but many people have noticed that Chris Chambers is a good WR when you can get him open in space and not very good when guys are banging into him and fighting for the ball. I think the Chiefs will still find ways to get him open, but it will be a little tougher than what they had to do to get Cro to give up on the play. That's just my opinion, though.
Advantage: Chargers/History
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So tell us how you really feel about Cro.
Good preview.
If the Chargers are able to get, say, a two-touchdown lead, do you think the Chiefs would abandon the run at all if it’s working?
Too many times last year, teams had success running the ball, but then abandoned it once the Chargers got up to a decent lead. You’d think they’d want to stick to their strengths and keep pounding the ball if it’s working, and that way you also keep the ball out of the PR’s hands.
"Don’t get nervous. Norv is in charge."
I don't think we can stop the Chiefs from running the ball.
What choice do they have? You can’t put the game in Matt Cassell’s hands. The Chiefs can never abandon the run.
Remember the Raiders of the last couple years? They couldn’t throw the ball very well, and they couldn’t stop the run. But they had good coverage, decent pressure and a fair running game. This year’s Chiefs are like that, except their QB is a schmoe rather than a bust, and their run game is a little better. They’ll be more likely to keep it close, and will sometimes win surprise games, but they’ll also get blown out a lot.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 10, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
* I don't think we can stop them ENTIRELY from running the ball.
We may be able to force them to take to the air in long-yardage situations.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 10, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Wouldn't they have to?
You have a better shot at a 50 yard play through the air than on the ground. It all depends on how much time is left when the Chargers are up 2 TDs.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Sep 10, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
No... but if you're talking about converting off 3rd-and-8, might as well run.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 10, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Chargers will not be up by 2 TDs
I can almost assure you guys of that. Either way it’s gonna be a good game. Im going on a limb here but Phillip Rivers is a “great” QB. Any time you have a “great” QB, they are always a problem. See the key to defeating Phillip Rivers is to smack him and get in his face.
At the same time, you guys gotta be prepared for what the Chiefs bring.
I wont get into it but I have a feeling that a lot of Charger fans will be upset come Tuesday
Chiefs start 4-0. Yes the colts lose to us.
Cassel will be our QBotF. The hate needs to stop NOW
Motivation is a fire from within, if someone else lights it, chances are it will burn briefly
by CasselKiLLer on Sep 10, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the Chiefs' pass rush will be improved.
But they will have to improve in both phases of defense if they want to win this game. San Diego will go out there with the explicit aim of ramming the ball down Kansas City’s throat. I think you’ll only see the Chargers take to the air after the Chiefs start stacking the box and keying off Ryan Mathews.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 10, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
and the cheifs are supposed to do that
with 1decent pass rusher?PLEASE!!!! i understand your ebthusuasm for your team, in fact, i might be the most optimistic of anyone here in Charger land, but the only ones that will be upset come tuesday will be cheifs fans
"i'm not inclined to resign to maturity"...PSYCH theme
by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Sep 10, 2010 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm no Chiefs fan
And I think their pass rush will be significantly better this year. Their secondary will improve, and will improve again next year. I don’t think it’s enough, but when you add in the new stadium and homefield advantage, I’d say the Chargers aren’t overwhelming favorites.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 10, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Pass rushing is only half the story
You gotta put players in a postion to wreak havoc and get to the QB. Come game time, I bet Romeo confuses the hell outta that Oline and generates at least two sacks.
Chiefs start 4-0. Yes the colts lose to us.
Cassel will be our QBotF. The hate needs to stop NOW
Motivation is a fire from within, if someone else lights it, chances are it will burn briefly
by CasselKiLLer on Sep 10, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
You seem to be thinking we'll start Mruczkowski...
All five OL players have significant starting experience, four of them having started at least a full season in their current position. If you expect the San Diego OL to be easily-befuddled, you’re in for a big disappointment.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 10, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I can almost assure you guys of that.
How? The Chargers won both games by 4 TDs last year.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Sep 10, 2010 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd give us at least a 25% chance we'll be up by 2 TDs at some point
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I would take those odds
My Chiefs Chargers preview would be “the Chargers score 30 do the Chiefs?”
IMO
well lets see.
1. Horrible D.C (BTW coaching is a big part of football on offense and defense)
we happen to get the two best out there that fits our style.
2. Chargers always off to a slow start
3. Chiefs improved in every facet of the game
4. Your starting LT, WR, and best pass rusher is out/limited.
lets be honest, 3 out of 4 of the most important pieces of football are not readily available for you guys.
All im saying is dont be suprised by the upset. Also, I think Ryan Matthews has a big game if that makes you feel better. On the flip side, we drafted to better pass D. There is NO FILM OF THE CURRENT CHIEFS. WHATs the gameplay.. Care to explain.
The window is closing in on you guys fast
Chiefs start 4-0. Yes the colts lose to us.
Cassel will be our QBotF. The hate needs to stop NOW
Motivation is a fire from within, if someone else lights it, chances are it will burn briefly
by CasselKiLLer on Sep 10, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Border-trolling.
…a potential paddlin’
"Watch out where the huskies go, don't you eat that yellow snow."- Zappa
no Im far from a troll just so you know.
Chiefs start 4-0. Yes the colts lose to us.
Cassel will be our QBotF. The hate needs to stop NOW
Motivation is a fire from within, if someone else lights it, chances are it will burn briefly
by CasselKiLLer on Sep 11, 2010 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Really.
Watch the avatars on this website. Check for schadenfreude pics. See any? No? That’s ‘cause using an unflattering picture of your rival as an avatar is one way to stand on the rooftop and announce, "I’m a troll!" even if it’s not true. Your post wasn’t quite that bad. But you don’t get to assure people you’re not a troll, with a pic like that.
The sig is just homerish. Nothing wrong with homerism. I’m a homer, too.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 11, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
It's a wonder to me
that intelligent people who should know better refuse to look at what Malcom Floyd can do. He is tall, jumps well, has good hands, caught 45 balls as the number 3 receiver, and his YPC was the same as VJ’s. He gets downfield and makes catches, period. In short, he is a number one receiver on many teams, and was only relegated to number three because of the Chargers’ talent level at receiver. Is he as good as VJ? Maybe not (but I’ve been impressed). Is he more than good enough to replace VJ. Oh, yeah.
Are Marlon McCree and Antonio Cromartie the same person? Just askin'.
I think Floyd will do a great job
but he does have to prove that he can do it as the number 1 WR. He may see tougher coverage without VJ on the other side, I think he has the talent to produce my biggest question with him is his durability.
window closing for 3 damn years now
I’ve been hearing that for 3 years now yet the Chargers keep knocking on that door and picking up replacements for leaving talent.
"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentation of their women." -The Barbarian
by traceSD on Sep 11, 2010 5:54 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It's wishful thinking from the rest of the country.
If you live in any other market in a big league that has a San Diego (or to a lesser extent Los Angeles) franchise, you root somewhere deep down for that team to fail. After all, in Pittsburgh, you watch sports because you have no choice. It’s impossible to pity San Diegans: if the football team sucks, we just go down to the beach.
I say it over and over. They hate us for our weather. So they consistently underrate us.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 11, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
sacks
saw where some chief fans are talking about sacking rivers 7-9 times. I will lmao if cassell is the one picking himself up off the ground. (come on larry english, show us your worth the first rounder we used to pick you) Remember, the chargers were the most blitzed against team in the nfl last year and yet rivers wasn’t sacked all that much. Yes, I know McNiel isn’t playing, but dombroski has done a pretty good job and I’m sure norv will give him some help to make sure rivers blind side is protected. also, if Mathews has a good game running the ball, the pass rush won’t be very effective. Yeah, we have started slow the last few years so the game may be close. But, I hopping for a good old fashioned butt whoopin of the chiefs by the chargers. Kind of like we did last year.
Not saying they will or wont be up two TDs but...
What the score was last year really has no bearing on anything our our games the past few years should show that. In 2008 you beat us by a combined total of 2 points for the season(where both games the Chiefs had a very legitimate shot to win on the last play of the game) only to field a much better football team last year and lose both games by 4 TDs each. It’s pretty hard to forecast what happens but between the homefield advantage and the running game I’d say it would be pretty optimistic, although not improssible, that the Chargers get up by 14.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
by GenericBrand on Sep 11, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
The Chiefs are the kind of team that will frequently keep it close.
And if they start to fall behind, may be subject to blowout.
I’d say either is a possibility.
An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 11, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
They'll manage the pass game first
If we get ahead by 2 TD’s, they’ll manage cassels passing; going with slants and hooks more often then try for a big run. They cant depend on cassel unless they’ve already been seriously outscored by 3 or more imho. If that happens, then cassel can do no worse. Thats when you give him the ball and see if he can get the game closer, then go back to the run if theres time…
After we win on Monday
I’ll be re-visiting my thread on AP asking nicely for info to help with a trip out for this game.
Wear something with repellent qualities if you choose to go & look.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
As a Chiefs fan
Can’t say I duisagree with much. Really the only thing I’ll correct you on is you assessment of our assessment of Matt Cassel (yeah, figure that one out. lol).
We all know he holds on to the ball too long, and any Chiefs fan that you talk to that says otherwise doesn’t know football. You brought up the stats showing how many sacks he took in NE, and that’s exactly right. Sure, our OL is inconsistant at best, but a lot of the sacks they gave up were because he was back there hanging out instead of throwing it or getting rid of it. I’m hoping he improves on that this season (though I didn’t really see a whole lot in the preseason to convince me of that, but who knows?). If he does, we’ll have a pretty decent season. If not, I wouldn’t doubt we draft a QB next year.
At any rate, I’m excited for Monday, and while I think the Chargers should win, because they’re honestly the better team, I don’t think it’ll be nearly the blowout that some people seem to think it will be, and if the Chargers don’t bring their A-game, they’re ripe for an upset.
2 more days…..
Look out for Dexter....
He’s going to kill you!
If he plays.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Monday Night is a statement game...
Remember this is monday night and Rivers likes to make an impression. Our defense will do fine against the run for the first three quarters and likely gas a bit in the 4th. I hope we see man coverage on D and they stack the box to stop the run. We can easily be up be 3 TD’s in this game as long as Rivers hooks up his passes and special teams has a good game.
SHAWN MERRIMAN?? Man what is up??
He’s out for this game with an acheles injury. Wow how long will this last for? He could be hampered by that kind if injury for the next 3 games… How bad is he? I hope he fully heals before he returns…
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