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Why Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill Won't Be Missed

I didn't think it would come to this, but I understand the fear. Two Pro Bowlers might not have much of an impact on the team this year. They might watch the first 10 weeks of the regular season from home, on the couch. Hell, if we're lucky they might watch those games and chat along with us in our Open Threads. I know why this is making people nervous/crazy, and I'm here to tell you it shouldn't.

I'm big on using the past to predict the future. Most stat-geeks are. So after the break, I'm going to use example after example of things that have already happened to talk you off the ledge and show you that the 2010 San Diego Chargers will be just fine without their star WR or LT.

Star-divide

Marques Colston
Marques is a player that's similar to Vincent Jackson in a lot of ways. Both players rely heavily on their size and their ability to win jump-balls. Both players are the #1 receivers in high-powered offenses. If you take away his 3 catch 2005 season, they've played in the NFL for roughly the same amount of time.

So why am I bringing up Colston? Because he missed some time last year. 5 games, to be exact. Let's do some number-crunching...

Points Per Game (with Colston): 28.6 (6-5 record)
Points Per Game (without Colston): 29.6 (2-3 record)

Not much of a difference there. If anything, the team did better without Colston because their offense became slightly less predictable and more creative. And wouldn't you know it, the 2008 Saints' offense (1st in PPG, 1st in YPG, 1st in YPP) were every bit as good as the 2009 Saints offense (1st in PPG, 1st in YPG, tied for 1st in YPP) even though they lost their "star WR" for 1/3 of the season. 

My personal philosophy as to why Colston's absence had little to no affect on the Saints is simple. I think a great offensive coach (Sean Payton) and a great QB (Drew Brees) can make any offense work. They can get creative, get new players involved, and keep the chains moving. Peyton Manning and his heralded offense loses 2 of his top 3 WRs from the previous season (Marin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez) and doesn't miss a beat. Tom Brady turns WRs into stars and they leave to become busts (Deion Branch). As long as the plays are being called by Norv Turner and executed by Philip Rivers, I have no fear.

 

Tra Thomas
Do you know which two very-mobile QBs seem to be towards the top of the list every year in terms of how many times they've been sacked? Take a guess.

That's right! Donovan McNabb and David Garrard. These guys have a history of never giving up on a play, running around until somebody gets open, and that not only puts an incredible strain on the offensive line but also ends up inflating the sack figures. For this reason alone, it's somewhat difficult to judge Tra Thomas. This is what I'm talking about.

David Garrard (2008): 42 sacks
David Garrard (2009): 42 sacks

Seriously? How can you tell me that Tra Thomas has been a failure? The issue here is that the QB holds onto the ball until he either throws a pass or gets hit. There is no throwing the ball away. There is no trying to lead the receiver downfield. Nobody open? I'll stand here until somebody is! If I were a Jags fan, Garrad would drive me nuts. If I were a LT, I'd probably hate him a little bit.

Donovan McNabb (2008): 23 sacks
Donovan McNabb (2009): 35 sacks

So the Eagles got rid of the "aging" Thomas because he was giving up too many sacks, replacing him with Jason Peters, and ended up getting their QB hit 12 more times. Well done.

I happen to think Tra Thomas is a good LT. I don't know how healthy he can stay, but he always struck me as a smart player with good feet. I'd love to say "with Rivers, it doesn't matter", but it does a little. It would help if the LT is competent. Between Thomas and Brandyn Dombrowski, I think the Chargers will end up with at least a competent LT and that will be fine.

(Don't get all excited, but the grand return of X's & O's may be coming back some time soon to analyze Tra Thomas in detail)

 

Looking Into the Mirror
Quick fact about the San Diego Chargers offense for you. This team has been in the top 5 in points scored per game since 2004. 2004! That's 6 consecutive seasons of being one of the 5 best-producing offenses in the league. Do you know how many of those seasons Vincent Jackson has been a starting WR? 3. Half of them. And the offense has not necessarily gotten better over the years.

The Bolts have scored over 400 points in each of the last 6 seasons. The year they scored the most, unsurprisingly, was 2006 when LaDainian Tomlinson broke the record for the most TDs scored in a season. Anyone want to guess the two starting WRs on that team? If you guessed Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker, you win. Give yourself a pat on the back. So, you see? A team can survive, and flourish, without a stud WR there to make one or two big plays a game.

Oh, but what about Left Tackle? Surely, with the drop-off from Marcus McNeill to Tra Thomas or Brandyn Dombrowski, the offense will surely die! Well Big Mac has only been a part of 4 of these fantastic offensive seasons. Who the heck manned the spot before him?

Well, big Roman Oben did a fine job as the starter in 2004 before losing the starting job to nearly-forgotten Leander Jordan who held the spot through most of 2005. Drew Brees, who has always had more issues than Rivers because he can't really see over the top of his offensive linemen, did a fantastic job of avoiding pressure and throwing quick passes when necessary. I don't think it's a ridiculous notion to expect Phil to do the same.

 

 

So you see, there's absolutely nothing to worry about. This is not only chartered territory, this is chartered territory for this team and this QB. Norv Turner has proven himself to be one of the best Offensive Coordinators in the history of the NFL, so expecting good play-calling from him is not difficult. Philip Rivers has proven himself to be one of the best Quarterbacks in the league, so expecting him to play well is not difficult. The score hasn't changed. This is still a great offense and one that can be made better by the mere presence of Ryan Mathews. The sky is not falling after all.

3 recs  |  Comment 37 comments |

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The main reason I didn't include Jackson when I wrote about the LT position

Is that I live in constant fear that Gates will get hurt and we’ll need another go-to guy on third down.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Jun 22, 2010 2:16 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

I've always believed that Gates is the player that makes this offense work.

As long as they have Gates and a workable ground game, they should be all right.

"This is no ordinary honey!"
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on Jun 22, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Funny how those 6 years of offensive dominance coincide with Gates’ 6 years of being a starting TE.

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Jun 22, 2010 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think you’re right about the importance of Gates. The only player more important is Rivers.

Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate

by Richard Wade on Jun 22, 2010 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Personally, I buy your reasoning.

You, and many of the other Chargers’ faithful over here at Bolts from the Blue have a better feel for your team and a more sensitive understanding of how the pieces will mesh with the expected changes.

We, over at MHR had a similar exprience when those not as close to the Broncos thought they would finish 3 – 13 (or worse) without Jay Cutler and are now making similar kinds of predictions about the impact of the trade of Brandon Marshall. But the Broncos will be fine just fine.

I think the Charges will find a way to minimize the damages and are still the team to beat in the AFC West until somebody proves otherwise. I’m looking forward to the games next season and till then, good luck and good health.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Jun 22, 2010 3:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Glad to have you around, Jack

You and a handful of other guys over at MHR have proven yourselves to be some of the classiest fans in football. Bena sets a hell of an example, though, so I expect nothing less.

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Jun 22, 2010 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you, John.

You’re right about Mr. Bena. Good guy.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Jun 22, 2010 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

If your post only had the title and

“’Cause Philip Rivers is the MAN!”
would have been enough for me.

by riversformvp on Jun 22, 2010 3:13 PM PDT reply actions  

Norv’s the man too.

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Jun 22, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

David Binn too!

Please don't read my signature.

by SoCalBoltFan on Jun 22, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I always find it funny when I say I'm a Chargers fan to people I meet

And they say you must hate having Norval as a coach, what has he ever won.
It just takes a 2 second reference to his 3 Championships with
Dallas to shut up all the critics. I love the guy.

by riversformvp on Jun 22, 2010 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love the guy too.

But he needs to prove he can win one as a HC in order to officially shut up the critics. Those are Jimmy Johnson’s Championships not Norv’s.

Please don't read my signature.

by SoCalBoltFan on Jun 22, 2010 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

True.

It was JJ who avoided freezing up and making the crucial, difficult decisions that come along with W’s in the playoffs.

by sd_Baby-B on Jun 22, 2010 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

insert picture of Norv with a funny expression that makes him look dumb here

by Orz on Jun 22, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Click on the icon that looks like a tree

Then put the link to the image there:

You can hit the preview button to make sure it shows ok…

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Jun 23, 2010 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

AHAHAHA

I was going to yell, but that picture is too good.

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Jun 23, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow

the Chargers should have cut them both last year and “we” probably would have won the super bowl.
Again I am not all gloom and doom about this season, the Chargers should win the AFC West and be in contention for the AFC Title, but the team is worse without these two players and I just don’t get everyone thinking that it doesn’t make a difference.

Things change but here is a quote from John at the halfway point of last season where he named VJ the offensive MVP: “In 2009 VJ has been every bit as important to the Offense as Rivers, if he (VJ) isn’t with the Chargers in 2010 it will be the shock of the century.” Funny how he can go from being as important as Rivers to no big deal if he is not here.
I have noticed with a lot of Charger fans players like VJ, Cromartie, Ellison and McNeill are the greatest in the world until it they are, or may soon be gone, then they are not that big a factor and it will not matter at all.

by JeromeB on Jun 22, 2010 3:14 PM PDT reply actions  

In my defense

VJ was every bit as important as Rivers on a team that had no ground-game to speak of. If you read between the lines of my post above, I’m basically saying that VJ isn’t as important as he once was because Ryan Mathews will improve the running game over what it was and the team will become more balanced and spread out than it needed to be in 2009.

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Jun 22, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

You need no defense

You do a great job with the site and have a valid line of reasoning for nearly all the points that you make day after day. No doubt the run game will be better, it couldn’t be any worse. I just happen to think that the team will be worse without VJ and McNeill in the line up. VJ is a better player than Buster and McNeill is better (at this stage of his career) than Tra, I don’t think many people around the NFL would argue with those facts. The Chargers will still be a great team, so I don’t need to be talked off the ledge.
Are you ready for the “Shock of the Century”?

by JeromeB on Jun 22, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure some extra sacks from the left side might kill some drives

But I doubt it is gonna kill P. Rivers. And another thing, McNeill has not been a Pro-Bowl caliber LT since 2007. The last two years he’s had injury or played average (rush blocking) to above average (pass blocking).

He has played hurt. He is a "team first" type player, but I don’t think missing Marcus is going to put the Chargers in the ditch.

by Trendsearcher on Jun 22, 2010 3:20 PM PDT reply actions  

The sky is not falling

and as long as we have Rivers, we have a chance to win. But I like our chances better with Jackson and McNeil.

Jackson was one of the better blocking WRs so I think our run blocking will take a hit. Matthews definitely helps, but good blocking WRs help break off those huge runs. Having Jackson and Gates would give the defense matchup problems because they would have to choose who to double team. I just think we will be defended differently now. Its going to be up to Floyd and Nannee to exploit the one-on-ones.

Sorry, not buying into the Tra Thomas sell. The best LT’s I have seen were Ogden and Pace and they started to lose their effectiveness at ages 34 and 33. Why should I believe in Tra Thomas when he will be 36? When Oben lost his job in ‘06, he was 34. Now, I think Thomas is a good backup, but I don’t want my 100 million dollar qb being protected by Thomas against the elite pass rushers. If he starts at LT for us to open the season, he would be the oldest starting LT in the league by a wide margin. The Chargers will be good enough to make the playoffs, but I just don’t know if we have enough talent to beat the other elite teams without Jackson and McNeil. They make a difference.

Thanks Vince.

by L Magico on Jun 22, 2010 5:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Much agreed

LT is not a position that ages well. Gotta have the quick feet to keep up with those edge rushers and it’s hard for a big guy to keep that up in his 30s.

by cowbell on Jun 22, 2010 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, it's only till week ten.

Unless Jackson and McNeal are complete idiots. And I think 6 weeks would be enough time to get in good enough shape for the playoffs. Though they’re probably hurting rapport with their teammates more than anything.

by Its Mikey!! on Jun 22, 2010 6:49 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Don't forget Charlie Joiner...

He is absolutely one of the best WR coaches working today… I found it interesting that both Jackson and Floyd took off once Joiner replaced James Lofton. it would not surprise me at all to see Joiner do some great work again this year with Floyd, Naanee, (maybe even Buster) as well as get the most out of a slot / route running receiver like Josh Reed. And I agree with Zach – as long as Gates is healthy, our passing game is open.

"The bureaucratic mentality is the only constant in the universe." - Dr. Leonard McCoy.

by Jeff (sliderockmpc) on Jun 22, 2010 6:12 PM PDT reply actions   3 recs

Great points

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Jun 22, 2010 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good point, Jeff

VJ couldn’t seem to break the habit of trapping the ball with his body until Joiner became WR coach.

Will we miss these 2 guys? I don’t know that miss is the right word. We’ll certainly have to make adjustments. I believe it can & will be done. Does this doom our 2010 SB chances? I would simply say to that – have we won a SB WITH McNeill & VJ?

No facts for basis here, but I actually wonder if the locker room might not be a much more cohesive, focused place now that a few guys are gone. Just a hunch. The trick will be to transfer any improved chemistry onto the field.

Bottom line for me? I’m watching Charger football in 2010 with as much enthusiasm as ever & expect to see a good product on the field.

If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!

Robert Hunter

by Buck Melanoma on Jun 23, 2010 3:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Have we won a Super Bowl with

Rivers? No but I would just as soon keep him around for a while.

by JeromeB on Jun 23, 2010 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Charlie Joiner

is one of my all time favorite chargers. The touchdown he scored against Denver to close out the season in 79 was one of the biggest plays I have seen in person. But I am not sure if he is or is not one of the best WR coaches working today. The track record of WRs on the teams he has coached is not all that impressive to be honest.

by JeromeB on Jun 23, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I am actually looking forward to seeing a lot more Naanee

I can just see the slot receiver pass in the mold of LT’s epic passing attempts.
This is the time in which Legadu can establish himself as a bonafide NFL
receiver instead of just a role player.

by riversformvp on Jun 22, 2010 7:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I always like seeing him on the field.

by aesimpleton on Jun 22, 2010 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Didn't it look like Naanee bulked up last season?

To me seemed bigger and thicker than the year before last. Not tight end kinda muscle mass, but it sure looked like he spent some time on the rock pile.

by Trendsearcher on Jun 23, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

He did bulk up a bit. All the WRs did.

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Jun 23, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

well done john

but, i don’t want this team to be “OKAY” without VJ and MM. i’m not looking for “manageable” without the two pro-bowlers. because in your words"…this offense has gotten better…." and i’m assuming it’s still better with VJ and MM on the squad.

so, i’m not in panic mode, but let’s try not to put a positive spin on “iceskating up hill”, vesus cruising downhill in a limo.

peace out

The peanut gallery has spoken!!!

by gatesoftds on Jun 23, 2010 9:53 PM PDT reply actions  

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