Negative 2010 Outlook: San Diego Chargers' Defense
by John Gennaro on May 12, 2010 2:08 PM PDT
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PrintI have to admit, it was a little difficult trying to come up with something to worry about in the San Diego Chargers' 2010 season. I'm an optimist. I saw no big problems, and certain things that I thought were big problems turned out to be not-that-bad when I started digging through stats.
However, the defense as a whole scares me a little bit. After the jump, I'm going to break down every part of the defense and why I'm fearful that each one could fall off from last year.
Defensive Line
On either side of the ball, you should always start with the line. There's a lot of sayings, such as "whoever makes the fewest mistakes wins", but I really do think that the team with the better line on both sides of the ball will win a game 90% of the time. Right now, I'm not certain the Chargers have that. Guys like Ian Scott, Alfonso Boone and Travis Johnson surprise you in terms of value, but there's always a reason that they were found on the scrap heap. Either they have problems staying healthy, problems being consistent or problems having any sort of factor on the games they play in.
Faith in Ron Rivera
When the Chargers ask you to put faith in what they're doing, and as fans they are asking that of us, we often ask why. In response they typically send out facts like Norv Turner's record with the Chargers after October, or Philip Rivers' record when making a game-winning drive, and we feel secure that the team knows what they're doing. On the defensive side of the ball, far too often it seems the team is putting all of their eggs in the Ron Rivera basket.
The Bolts have said that in the upcoming season they will continue to play a hybrid defense, 3-4 in certain situations and 4-3 in others. I would love this type of creativity if it was showing results, but it really hasn't. And when you're building a roster for the purpose of being a dominating 3-4 (which the Chargers were at one point), it seems silly to try running the 4-3 with the same guys. Did Tony Dungy try to turn the Colts into a running-offense, ball-control team based around the Cover 2 defense just because that's what he was comfortable doing in Tampa? Of course not. Why would you ask guys like Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman to play Defensive End?
Wasting Strong Safeties
I think the disconnect between Rivera's ideas and the output on the field (which has been good, but certainly not great) has resulted in some odd situations and odd picks. For instance, Kevin Ellison was picked in the 6th round of the 2009 NFL Draf and took over the starting Strong Safety spot just a few weeks into the season. He was everything the scouting report said he was: big, slower than guys like Polamalu, smart. Ellison projected to be an okay NFL player, if he was projected to be a star he would've been a 1st round choice. After taking over, Ellison proved himself to be consistently okay.....and for some reason the team is disappointed him for this. I don't get it. If you wanted a different player, why not pick a different player?
In this year's draft, the Chargers used another mid-round pick to get Darrell Stuckey to replace Ellison. Stuckey is a similar type of player, but I suppose the Bolts hope that he's better. So for at least the third year in the row, Charger fans are heading into the season with almost no clue as to what type of production they're going to get from the SS position. That's scary/annoying.
The Rest of the Secondary
Let's face it, this is an unpredictable game. At any moment, an MVP player can suddenly lose that little bit of physicality that he had and go from great to mediocre overnight. The Chargers have been relying on Quentin Jammer as their #1 CB for seven seasons already, which is an NFL eternity. Eventually the guys like Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne are going to be too much for him, and I thought A.J. Smith would usually see this situation coming and be more than prepared. He may have been, and Antonio Cromartie may have forced himself out, but that doesn't make me any less worried.
If Jammer loses a half-step, or Antoine Cason is more of the player that got benched as a nickel corner and less of the opportunistic CB that everyone saw in college and even a bit in his rookie season, things could get ugly. If/when Jammer has a problem, he's going to have someone like Darrell Stuckey (who is inexperienced) trying to cover for him over the top. If Cason has a problem, the Chargers really don't have anyone else that can step into the #2 CB position. Everything could be fine....everything has to be fine, because there is no backup plan.
Inside Linebackers
At least here there seems to be some forward thought and a backup plan or two. The biggest problem here is Stephen Cooper, who fell off in terms of production last year. Now, that could've been caused by age or it could've been caused by injury (he played with a bad elbow all year) or it could've been a mix a both. If it happens again this year, I hope that the defensive coaches have a plan to try to fix it (like Donald Butler and/or Brandon Siler). Kevin Burnett is a good player when he's healthy and on the field, but if he can't stay healthy he'll be watching Siler in his spot all season.
Outside Linebackers
So much of this position is up in the air. Will Larry English get that 10% better that he needs to be an effective pass-rusher? Will Shawne Merriman turn back into the beast he once was? Does Ron Rivera blitz these guys enough, or does he get too creative with them?
The terrible part about having so many things up in the air is that this is arguably tied with the line for the most important part of the defense. Plain and simple: the Bolts' OLBs need to get to the opposing QBs more, and it's the same group of OLBs from last season. The only thing we can do is hope for progress from English, health from Merriman and progress in Rivera's head. There's no guarantee that this very important group will be any better. That's a problem.
Summary
My pessimism about the defense is nothing new. With this team, there is so little change from year-to-year that it's easy to be pessimistic about any of the positions that didn't perform well the year before. Going into 2009, I was worried about RB, SS and RG. Louis Vasquez plugged one of those holes very nicely. Somebody will step up and help plug one of the holes above. The defense will probably be good, but when Charger fans so recently saw what these players could do under Wade Phillips it's hard not to ask.....why can't it be great?
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Isn't Vasher the backup plan for CB?
Or should I assume he’s not worthy of that title.
The latter
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on May 12, 2010 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Per Andy I will try to talk you in off the ledge
I actually do have some faith in both Vasher and Strickland, I think they are legit NFL corners and are capable of stepping in and playing if needed.
My biggest concern is the D line. I think Castillo can still play, and after that there are a bunch of guys that I “hope” can play well this season.
Yeah I would agree here
Strickland was actually fairly solid in nickel if you ask Jet fans, and they are notoriously not easy to appease. Vasher on the other hand will either turn out to be genius or a waste of good money. The D line is where we need some improvement, include the pass rush in that. If there’s even moderate improvement in those areas, I like our chances of actually winning some post season games
IMO
I kinda like this side of you
Call it “pessimism” if you must, but to me, it’s a more grounded and realistic view of things. And it gives room for the rest of us to talk you in off the ledge, thereby bucking ourselves up at the same time.
Personally, I have less concerns about the shortcomings in the defensive backfield than I do in the continuing efforts to find a pass rush. Who do you think Father Time will have a greater effect on: Quentin Jammer or Shaun Philips? My vote is Philips.
by Andy (allfield) on May 12, 2010 2:41 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for making me worry about something else (Phillips’ age) on top of everything else.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on May 12, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
He's 28, and in his prime.
Why would you be worried about Phillips’s age?
"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on May 12, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
He's of comparable age to other big pass-rushers.
Same age as Jared Allen (28).
Same age as Osi Umenyiora (28).
Two years younger than Julius Peppers (30).
Two years younger than Dwight Freeney (30).
A year older than Demarcus Ware (27).
I don’t see any issue with Phillips getting old.
"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on May 12, 2010 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Scheme.
I have zero confidence in Ron Rivera or his scheme. Good coordinators can scheme around their talent and create pass-rush. Rivera can’t. His defenses in Chicago relied on having a bunch of great players in their prime. Don’t have that here. Not good.
"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on May 12, 2010 3:36 PM PDT reply actions
I agree
Not overly impressed with Rivera either. What do dominant defenses do? They are agressive, not passive. They play physical, smash mouth football, not drop back and “prevent” you from making a big play while allowing numerous long (clock eating) drives. That said, our defense didn’t let us down overall in the jets game. The offense sputtered and didn’t score many points. Also, look at the ravens game last year. They gave up that big play to sproles early and yet still managed to win the game. How? By playing tough defense, not passive. Perhaps we don’t have the players to play man D. But, that is what Cro’s complaint was, that he wasn’t being used properly.
I'm not ready to put the Ted Cottrell label on Rivera just yet.
Yes Rivera had to dial down the pressure to shore up the run defense last year. But he didn’t put Merriman into zone coverage too much.
Last year I think Rivera’s conservatism was warranted. And if we can’t stop the run with the front three again this year I think the blames goes on the re-treads and less wanted lineman (UDFAs and late round draft choices) not on Rivera. To me that is a personnel prioritization issue (AJ’s fault). Make that third string QB and third string TE pick up the slack.
It doesn’t do any good for Rivera to send pressure from the outside if they are running away from the blitz and we can’t stop ‘em.
Now if I see Rivera not sending 5 on 3rd and long, that would upset me.
by Trendsearcher on May 12, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
have to agree too
How many times did we blitz last year and still couldn’t pressure the qb? hopefully that will change this year. Hopefully merriman will be healthy and be a force to reckon with, and hopefully larry english will do better than he did last year. But, on third and long they need to set up short of the first down marker, not after it. Last year ythe would drop back beyond the marker, the guy would catch the ball and they would come up and hit him, but he would fight for the last yard, yard and a half and pick up the first down. Giving up first downs on third and 15, third and 19 is just in-excusable.
LBs
Burrnett plays the will spot, so it could be the rookie taking his spot; and Siler taking Coops, which has kinda already happened
IMO
It seems like the 5th time we've discussed this
But, at the end of the year Coop was still out there almost all the time, no one took his starting job. He just switched roles so that Siler played his old position and Cooper played the Donnie Edwards/Matt Wilhelm spot. Siler would then come out for Burnett on passing downs. They basically had to keep Cooper out there as much as possible since he’s the leader and wears the helmet with the radio.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on May 12, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yes Wonko
Nothing I said contradicts this. If you wish to interpret the definition of spot differently then I do, then please do it without posting the equivalent of rolling your eyes. And it isnt the 5th time we have discussed this it’s the first because we drafted a new ILB that projects to play the weak side. It might be the 5th time you have felt compelled to defend Coop based on something I said. Funny you didnt even mention John calling Coop a problem.
IMO
by Foilhat on May 12, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't defend Coop
I just contradicted your “which has kinda already happened” because this is something around the 5th time you’ve eluded to or outright said that Coop was replaced last year at some point.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on May 13, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec’d for “eluded.”
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on May 14, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I realized this as I was driving somewhere
I don’t know why I was thinking about my spelling while I was driving, but nevertheless I didn’t get chance to *correct myself.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I’m glad I’m not the only one who suffers from that defect.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on May 14, 2010 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
*alluded
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
If Wonko's eyes aren't rolling, he goes mute.
:)
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on May 14, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Great post
Ironically that it was actually our STs and offense that couldnt get it done in the playoffs, when those were very strong phases in the latter half of the season especially.
IMO
by Foilhat on May 12, 2010 3:56 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
The defense didn't exactly hold its own against the run either in that game.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
The D allowed 17 points
Yeah thats not terrific D, but that should have been more than adequate if the offense put up even modest numbers, and a couple field goals were made
IMO
I agree
When it was close at halftime, I was afraid that if the oiffense didn’t come out and score a td on their first possession, we were in trouble. I figured the defense would wear down if we didn’t force the jets to play catch up. (pass) Hopefully, if we can run the ball effectively this year, we can eat up the clock and keep the defense fresh at the end of games. we should win the division, all the others are still in re-build mode. But, the playoffs is another matter.
The D was dominant in the first half
And the offense rewards them with 7 points? Yeah I agree, even with the beast Jets D our O has to do better than that. Yep the division and schedule gives us a almost certain playoff berth, the Chargers have routinely been able to beat teams just by getting up multiple scores and playing solid STs. In the playoffs the squad has to do more though, and hopefully the D is better than average come christmas
IMO
Some of those points were given to the Jets
by the Chargers offense. The only TD that I put on the D is the Weddle trampling incident.
I may be all alone on this one
but I thought that, as a whole, the defense played pretty well against the run in the Jets game. After 3 quarters of play the Jets had 85 yards rushing. After the Rivers pick gave them the 4th quarter lead they did put up 84 yds rushing in the fourth quarter.
Without that game, momentum and lead changing pick I just don’t think it happens. Of course it is not possible for me to prove this, so it is just my opinion and it may be totally wrong.
When you take into account the quality of the opposition our offense out performed our defense in that game.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on May 12, 2010 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe in yards
Yards dont count though. You have to make them count by kicking the ball in between the post, or better yet getting 6s instead of 3s.
IMO
I was looking at DVOA.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on May 13, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
If you are going to take into account
the quality of the opposition, then I think you should also take into account the quality of our own D (or lack there of), compared to that of the quality of our own Offense.
The Chargers D more than held up their end of the bargain in that game. The offense moved the ball well but had critical mistakes and was unable to put points on the board.
Without adjusting for opponent the Chargers offense was 8% below average and the Chargers defense was 7% above average. After adjusting for opponent the Chargers offense was 25% above average and the Chargers defense was 4% below average.
Both units played better against the Jets than they did over the season as a whole. Special teams was much, much worse, though.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on May 13, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
You have sold me on the value of DVOA as a tool
but I think there are other things that need to be looked at as well.
The D stopped the Jets from scoring a TD for 3 quarters of the game. And the first TD that the Jets scored in the fourth quarter was due to a Rivers pick that gave them the ball on the 16 yard line. This may sound weird to some, but I believe that had that pick not been thrown there was a very good chance that the Jets would not have scored a TD in the game at all. Once they got that TD (and the lead) they felt comfortable going with run after run, and they finally broke one to seal the win. Once that pick was thrown it changed every play that happened after it, as all big plays do.
The offense put up a ton of yards passing on a great D but take a look at the Chargers drives in the second and third quarter in order:
4 and Punt, 3 and Punt, 3 and Punt, 4 and missed FG, 3 and Punt, 4 and Int, 2 and Int.
Even with that total lack of production by the offense throughout the entire 2nd and 3rd quarter, at the start of the 4th quarter the Chargers were up 7 to 3. I think the Defense has to be given some major props for this. The Chargers Offense could have put this game away just by doing anything in the 2nd or 3rd quarters.
Please don’t take this as DVOA bashing, as I said earlier you have sold me on its value and I am sure the more that I understand it the more that I will value it.
Everyone loves DVOA, but yeah I agree
Punt, punt, punt, punt, missed FG, pick, punt ect…………….
I dont care what DVOA says about that, that’s garbage O on any planet
IMO
VOA agrees with you
DVOA, not so much.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I think the problem is that people don’t appreciate how good the Jets defense was and how bad its offense was.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on May 14, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps that is the case
but if are offense played 25% above average, we really can’t expect much more than that, yet they were only able to put 14 points on the board. Contrary to what a lot of people were saying after the game, I guess the better team won. I mean our offense played really well, we just can’t score against a great defense like the Jets. The Jets D may have even improved in the off season, so there is almost no hope at all of the Chargers beating them this season.
I don’t buy it the Chargers offense didn’t finish off drives or execute when they needed to.
I do agree with your point, the Jets D is great, and I am not sold that Sanchez was, is, or will be a good NFL QB.
14 points
Remember, its giving credit to offense as if it would have gotten average performance from a FG unit. The loss of points due to Kaeding’s issues are not counted against the offense, but instead against special teams performance. It’s probably reasonable to assume that given the offense’s general performance they should have had 20 points and that would look a lot more like an above average performance against a top defense.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Very valid point as it relates to the DVOA
I guess I just think more highly of the Chargers offense than some. I don’t think that the Chargers offense played up to their capabilities against the Jets. Whether it be the two straight quarters where they could not move the ball at all, or the costly mistakes that they made, or their inablity to finish off drives. I expected more from them, it is possible that my expectations were too high.
When I watch that game, the defense played better than I expected and the offense played worse than I expected. Again the problem could have been with my expectations.
25% DVOA is a solid number, but given the way the Chargers were playing down the stretch is was the low end of their spectrum. So, you had every right to expect them to play better. Playing better than 25% DVOA on offense had become their bread and butter.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Personally, I’m not sold on Ron Rivera. I’ll give him credit for being able to work with what he had last season from all the injuries that we had to endure, but he hasn’t shown me anything special about this defense.
I was really hoping we would take a strong hard look at Mike Nolan when he decided to part ways with Denver. He took a pretty crappy defense, thats been pretty bad for many years and made them a top notch defense. and that was a defense filled with old guys and vets who were released from there old teams.
Thats the type of thing that I was hoping from Rivera. I hope he can get it done, the only thing holding us back from a championship will be our defense.
I am happy that we added a SS like Stuckey, ILB Butler and a run stuffer like Thomas. All of these guys should help our defense. I’m realyl hoping that Stuckey will turn out to be that guy we’ve been lacking in the backfield. He’s fast, strong and hits hard. We need that force, and I’m pulling for Stuckey to be that guy.
But bottom line, if our D-line can’t do anything, our entire defense will suck it.
Stuckey and Ellison
Regarding Stuckey and Ellison being a ‘similar type of player’, the one huge difference is speed. The 40 times for Stuckey – 4.49 compared with Ellison – 4.80
For whatever reason the coaches must feel that they cannot get by with Ellison’s speed. This seems to be the only reason for the drafting of Stuckey
I think they just wanted competition at the strong safety spot
They needed another strong safety, Ellison was decent yes, but who is he competing with Gregory? Now I like Gregory but he isnt a strong safety; nickel back, STer, emergency corner, emergency SS, and back FS. Now that sounds about right to me
IMO
If you want to be realistic about how fast Ellison runs the 40
Its probably in the high 4.5s and it might be as good as what Stuckey ran. I refuse to accept the 40 times of a player coming of a knee injury over a year ago as a basis of comparison.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
on june 15
i will break down SD on here
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider
Rec' good post John
i have maintained the position, since Ron’s promotion, that a 4-3 coach, on a 3-4 defense, filled with 4, 5, 6, 7and UDFA dose not inspire confidence.
but on he upside, Merriman could be a beast again. the guys in the middle could start stuffing the run. and jammer weddle cason and the rookies could start ball hawking in the secondary.
peace out
The peanut gallery has spoken!!!
This post made the Pro Football Talk one-liners for today.
FYI
by Lenny Suckerpunch on May 13, 2010 7:53 AM PDT reply actions
Nice. Thanks for the heads up.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on May 13, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
My vote was..
to take Kyle Wilson and move Jammer to SS in a couple of years ala Lott/Woodson.
I am more concerned about the line than Strickland/Vasher/Cason filling in DB area. Ellison/Stuckley will be average with some decent hits and fewer mistakes than most
The line slash pass rush…lots of worries, I like Cam Thomas and Okie…but right end needs to convince me and since we don’t rely on line for QB pressure 1 of those outside guys need to get consistent gear.
While I am a big AJ fan, I am a bit miffed on the press to trade Merriman. Salary cap wise, we in a decent shape despite all the hoopla of McNeil and Jackson. Now if Condon was persistent about a high dollar long contract, the Chargers may have been more inclined to trade. If the new guy was more amenable to bonus clauses on productivity…then maybe a match will get done. Despite the imaginary or real feeling between Smith and Merriman, I can’t believe his side on Fox really affects Smith view on what it takes to get it done.
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