Zeroing In On the Chargers Top Picks

by Wonko on Apr 16, 2010 11:00 AM PDT in NFL Draft

I had been trying to think up a way to present a post about a cluster of players the Chargers could be targeting when I found an article on draft tiers Todd McShay of ESPN's Scouts, Inc (subscription required). He broke down all the players from the top of the first round to the fringes of the third round. I want to look at the first two picks the Chargers have and what sort of value is present there. The Chargers first two picks fit into the following tiers as defined by McShay: Late First Round and Early-to-mid Second Round. The tiers helped me to form a cluster of players that could be targeted in the first and second round and sort coincides with how I looked at doing mock drafts this offseason. Think of it as a healthy mix of Scouts, Inc data/opinions, my opinions, some wishful thinking and common perceptions that helps from a somewhat informed preview of what's to come next week.

First Round Cluster:

Player	Position	School	HT	WT	40	Tier
Dan Williams	DT	Tennessee	6-2	307	5.27	Top Half of First Round
Kareem Jackson	CB	Alabama	5-10½	196	4.48	Mid First Round
Kyle Wilson	CB	Boise State	5-10	194	4.42	Late First Round
Jared Odrick	DE	Penn State	6-5	304	5.09	Late First Round
Ryan Mathews	RB	Fresno State	5-11⅝	218	4.45	Late First Round
Charles Brown	OT	USC	6-5⅜	303	5.23	Late First Round
Devin McCourty	CB	Rutgers	5-10¾	193	4.48	Fringe First Rounder
Jahvid Best	RB	California	5-10⅛	199	4.35	Fringe First Rounder

Second Round Cluster:

Player	Position	School	HT	WT	40	Tier
Ryan Mathews	RB	Fresno State	5-11⅝	218	4.45	Late First Round
Charles Brown	OT	USC	6-5⅜	303	5.23	Late First Round
Rodger Saffold	OT	Indiana	6-4⅝	316	5.25	Fringe First Rounder
Devin McCourty	CB	Rutgers	5-10¾	193	4.48	Fringe First Rounder
Jahvid Best	RB	California	5-10⅛	199	4.35	Fringe First Rounder
Tyson Alualu	DE	California	6-2⅜	295	5.02	Fringe First Rounder
Patrick Robinson	CB	Florida State	5-11¼	190	4.50	Fringe First Rounder
Lamarr Houston	DE	Texas	6-2¾	305	4.89	Fringe First Rounder
Arrelious Benn	WR	Illinois	6-1	219	4.59	Fringe First Rounder
Terrence Cody	NT	Alabama	6-3⅝	354	5.71	Early to Mid Second Round
Linval Joseph	NT/DE	East Carolina	6-4½	328	5.10	Early to Mid Second Round
Nate Allen	FS	South Florida	6-0½	207	4.51	Early to Mid Second Round

Here's a break down of some of the tiers that I was looking at. You can use these to form your own opinions about who the Chargers could draft using your own opinions about needs and value.

The Late First Round Tier consists of:

Player	Position	School	HT	WT	40
Kyle Wilson	CB	Boise State	5-10	194	4.42
Jared Odrick	DE	Penn State	6-5	304	5.09
Ryan Mathews	RB	Fresno State	5-11⅝	218	4.45
Everson Griffen	DE	USC	6-3⅜	273	4.66
Daryl Washington	OLB	TCU	6-1¾	230	4.66
Charles Brown	OT	USC	6-5⅜	303	5.23

The Early-to-mid Second Round tier consists of:

Player	Position	School	HT	WT	40
Sean Lee	ILB	Penn State	6-2⅛	236	4.80
Golden Tate	WR	Notre Dame	5-10¼	199	4.42
Chris Cook	CB	Virginia	6-2	212	4.46
Jon Asamoah	OG	Illinois	6-4	305	5.07
Terrence Cody	DT	Alabama	6-3⅝	354	5.71
Navorro Bowman	OLB	Penn State	6-0½	242	4.77
Linval Joseph	DT	East Carolina	6-4½	328	5.10
Colt McCoy	QB	Texas	6-1⅛	216	4.79
Koa Misi	OLB	Utah	6-2⅝	251	4.78
Nate Allen	S	South Florida	6-0½	207	4.51

There is a tier that sits in between these two called Fringe First Rounders. These players would have good value with our second round pick and would be minor reaches with our 1st round pick. In the last 3 drafts A.J. has dipped down into players that are in this tier (as defined by Scouts, Inc and Todd McShay) for Larry English, Antoine Cason and Buster Davis.

The Fringe First Rounders consist of:

Player	Position	School	HT	WT	40
Sean Weatherspoon	OLB	Missouri	6-1¼	239	4.68
Taylor Mays	S	USC	6-3⅛	203	4.43
Tyson Alualu	DT	California	6-2⅜	295	5.02
Rodger Saffold	OT	Indiana	6-4⅝	316	5.25
Devin McCourty	CB	Rutgers	5-10¾	193	4.48
Arrelious Benn	WR	Illinois	6-1	219	4.59
Lamarr Houston	DT	Texas	6-2¾	305	4.89
Jimmy Clausen	QB	Notre Dame	6-2⅝	222	4.75
Carlos Dunlap	DE	Florida	6-5¾	277	4.71
Patrick Robinson	CB	Florida State	5-11¼	190	4.50
Rob Gronkowski	TE	Arizona	6-6¼	264	4.75
Jahvid Best	RB	California	5-10⅛	199	4.35

There is also an opportunity with the Chargers 1st round pick (#28 overall) to make a value pick if a player were to slip. In an effort not to keep up with the spirit of Mr. McShay's subscription-only work I'm not going to post any more of his work here. I will say that if you've heard other names associated with the Chargers first round pick (i.e. Dan Williams, Rolando McClain, Brandon Graham, etc.) then they are probably guys that would be steals if they fell to the Chargers. Similarly, there are players that aren't on these lists that may have been mentioned as Chargers second round picks that according this tiering system would reaches of varying degrees (i.e. Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart, Cam Thomas, Dominique Franks, Perrish Cox, etc).

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Comments

Great Post

Here’s my clusters for the record, in order of preference

Late first
Odrick
Best
Weatherspoon
McCourty
Wilson
Cody

Early 2nd
Cody
Saffold
Dunlap
Allen
Joseph
Thomas

Late 3rd
Tate RB
Price WR
Decker WR
Cox CB
Ward SS
Rolle SS

IMO

by Foilhat on Apr 16, 2010 11:53 AM PDT reply actions

I should note

That I think Mathews, Graham, and Williams will be gone but course would love any of the 3

IMO

by Foilhat on Apr 16, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Weatherspoon

I thought about include Weatherspoon, but he doesn’t really strike me as a 3-4 guy. He’s a little small to be an OLB, but one of his best traits is rushing the passer. I suppose he could go to ILB, but I think his skillset doesn’t quite match up to that position and would need some time to adjust. I’d rather spend a 1st round pick on a better fit.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Apr 17, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah he's probably not a 34 guy

Just like Dunlap he’s a little small for the position he would be expected to play in our scheme. I think I just have a weakness for LBs that I perceive as versatile 3 down players. Clay Mathews was the guy that looked that part last year.

This year its Spoon, and also Chaney to a certain extent; but I dont think he should figure in until the 4th.

IMO

by Foilhat on Apr 17, 2010 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Taylor Price

No thank you. He’s been described as a small school Heyward-Bey clone. He has speed, but not in the way that threatens defenses deep. More of a bubble screen guy that can break away, which is not exactly what the Chargers offense does often.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Apr 17, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions

HAHA

I love Price. You converted me into a Decker guy, now let me tell you why I like Price. It has nothing to do with his speed or production. The offense he came out of was absolutely horrible, and his QB could barely get him the ball; so dont knock him too much for not stretching the field Wonko. And I am not aware of him having drop problems from what I saw he catches the ball away from his body. So the DHB comparison might be a bit far, especially since I am advocating the guy in the 3rd round.

Granted he isnt a jump ball guy, and may never play the outside; but he’s tough and works hard. Watch the game when he went up against Eric Berry, and you’ll see why I like him.

IMO

by Foilhat on Apr 17, 2010 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Channeling my inner AJ...

with the 28th pick, the SD Chargers select:

Ryan Matthews. If he’s there, it’s too obvious a pick to pass up. offers that inside running game with notable ability to break free. he’s been productive at every stage in his career and despite not possessing game-breaking speed like spiller, best, mcknight, and mccluster, he will keep defenses honest with forward progress, allowing norv to dissect defenses with rivers arm. the only real contender for matthews i feel is the houston texans. but they have more pressing needs than RB.

with the 40th pick, SD selects:

Tyson AluAlu, DE/DT out of Cal. who is Alualu you ask? the entire pac10 conference knows him as King Tyce, a dominant force that uses low leverage, brute strength, and crafty hands too disrupt runs and collapse on the pocket. At the 40th spot, his talent level is much too high to ignore. remember back in ’07 when we had the best defense in the league? a large part of it had to do with the activity in the trenches with Olshansky, castillo, and J-Will wreaking havoc and forcing Qbs to mistime their throws. Pairing alualu with castillo would be start of a bolts resurgence on defense.

Commissioner Goodell, “I have an announcement to make, there has been a trade…”

I really feel that AJ will trade up at this point, combining those 2011 3rd picks with a couple of 2010 picks to move up in the 2nd round to get his NT prospect. If Terrence Cody is his guy, than i can imagine him moving up to get him. Cam Thomas and Linval Joseph are also suitable prospects. The key for NT position is size and the ability to occupy two blockers, allowing the rest of your defense to attack gaps with single coverage. I feel confident in any of those 3. AJ could also select Cody at the 40 spot if he’s there then trade up to get ALuAlu.

The rest of the draft will just be a mix of positional projects with CB, OL, TE, LB the most prominent needs in that order. Remember this is one of the deepest drafts in years so u can get great value in later rounds. AJ and his scout team are among the keenest in the NFL. He trusts his gut instinct and willing to take risks on players and usually comes out on top b/c of it. You also have to think, AJ has made small moves in the offseason to alleviate the need to get immediate impact players, notably at the CB and NT position. Resigning Ian Scott, Travis Johnson, as well as Nathan Vasher offers the defense quality rotational depth eliminating the pressing need for starters at Day 1. i like the moves AJ has been making, cutting loose noteworthy players for the chance to upgrade the team as a whole by adding talent to the roster through the draft.

I can’t wait for thursday!! Let’s Go Bolts!

by JohnnyBoto on Apr 16, 2010 1:28 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs

Nice selections

The big back would be very nice.

I really feel that AJ will trade up at this point, combining those 2011 3rd picks with a couple of 2010 picks to move up in the 2nd round to get his NT prospect.

In a draft this deep in talent imagine AJ doing something like this too. It just seems as if he doesn’t like to daft more than five rookies per year, so he can have room for more UDFAs.

by Trendsearcher on Apr 16, 2010 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Next year’s 3rd is probably worth 150 pts next year. At half value, that’s 75.

+ our 2011 3rd rounder should be enough draft value to get #32, theoretically. The most likely trading partners ahead of the Chiefs (the first 3-4 team picking after the Jets at #29) would be the Rams, Lions or Bucs. Alternately, our 2011 3rd could move us up a couple spots from #28 into the wildcard teams, possibly with Philly or Green Bay, ahead of #25 Baltimore if Dan Williams is still on the board.

Another way around it is to work 2011 trade-ups into this year’s deals, using late-round picks next year to pick up a couple FAs if it’s convenient. For instance, if Philly wants two picks this year for the trade, we could offer #28, #91 and a 5th next year for #24 and a 2nd/3rd next year. Then, next year, go crazy with half a dozen top-100 picks.

What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Apr 16, 2010 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Rivera and NT

I think Ron appreciates a nose that can pressure the passer or at least shrink the pocket; Jamal as dominate as he was against the run was never that guy. I’m not sure the Chargers want another one dimensional NT like Monster Cody or even Dan Williams. I think he likes his rotation.

I’d like more an eraser or intimidator on the back end; Weddle is more like a safety band-aid (who broke when we needed him the most.) Ellison is just too slow. If Taylor Mays drops, he’s worth coaching up because he has top 10 talent.

I’d love me some Rolando McClain if he drops (shoot I’d trade up for him.) I think great D relies on game changers in the middle at LB and S and Chargers have good, not great or superstar players in those spots.

The Sacramento Kings - our guys have big mouthpieces.

by bringbackbuddytrees on Apr 16, 2010 6:28 PM PDT reply actions

With you on McClain, but only if he slips.

What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Apr 16, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Reasoning: ILBs aren’t usually worth a 1st, but we need one and a big hitter would be nice. Imagine McClain and Siler for a short-yardage defense!

What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Apr 16, 2010 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I liked your post

And agree but I dont want Mays or McClain. There’s great value for safties past the third round this draft. We need two RBs so we have to pull the trigger early on one. The other pick I would like either a RT, DE. or CB.

IMO

by Foilhat on Apr 16, 2010 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions

good stuff

"I've got an idea--an idea so smart that my head would explode if I even began to know what I'm talking about." - Peter Griffin

by tonik on Apr 17, 2010 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions

trade down for value

I would like to see AJ trade down from the 28th pick to the top of the 2nd (maybe 37 with the Eagles?) and pick up another third rounder. Pick up a NT (Cody or Thomas or Troup), a tackle (maybe Vlad D?) with two 2nd-rounders, and then get a couple of running backs in the third (Tate / Dixon / Hardesty )

by temeculacharger on Apr 18, 2010 9:32 AM PDT reply actions