Approval Ratings: A.J. Smith
On the first approval rating post, we found that a lot more people approve of the job Norv Turner is doing than would probably be willing to admit to it (the comments section of that post is proof of that). That's fine, at least it showed that his success as the Head Coach of the San Diego Chargers is being appreciated.
Now we move on to an equally-criticized figure in General Manager A.J. Smith. The funny thing about both Smith and Norv is that their critics seem more concerned about how they act out their emotions than how they actually perform in their duties. After the jump (and feel free to vote before reading the rest of this post, if you already have an opinion), we're going to dive into A.J. Smith's successes and failures to see how it shakes out.
A lot of what happens here "after the jump" in my own opinion mixed with stats. To give you my true thoughts on A.J. Smith, we need to go back to when he was the Assistant GM to John Butler.
John Butler was hired to turn the 1-15 Chargers around. Boy, did he ever. In his first offseason he turned the #1 pick (Michael Vick) into LaDainian Tomlinson (Hall of Famer) and Drew Brees (potential Hall of Famer). That 1-15 team improved by 4 wins to go 5-11 in 2001, but the team continued to struggle to win close games late. This was the strongest criticism of Head Coach Mike Riley, so Butler replaced Riley with Marty Schottenheimer.
In his second year as GM, the Chargers got to .500 (8-8) and looked like a future championship contenders with Tomlinson and Brees beginning to reach their potential. Butler saw one glaring problem, and that was that his young RB was leading the team (by quite a bit) in receptions. If this offense was going to become one of the league's best, it needed a dominant #1 WR. Enter David Boston.
At 6'2" and 228lbs, David Boston was big enough to be a power RB (LenDale White is 6'1" and 235lbs). Being that size, with that strength and having 4.3 speed.....that was unbelievable. Most Chargers fans were cautiously optimistic when the team signed Boston, looking at the potential and thinking "maybe he just works out a lot." Not so much.
In the last major move as General Manager, John Butler handed a 7-year $53 million dollar contract to Boston. It was a gambler's move, putting his reputation on the line on the chance that The Thing would fulfill his potential in San Diego with Drew Brees.
Butler's death immediately before the 2003 NFL Draft cast a shadow over the entire season for the Chargers. A.J. Smith took over the reigns and, according to everything that's been written about it since, drafted according to Butler's plan instead of trying to install his own in just a few days. The lack of control showed itself when the Chargers took two CBs and a Safety with their first three picks. Smith's keen scouting eye showed up in later rounds, when he was able to grab Pro Bowlers Mike Scifres and Hanik Milligan. Probably the best move of the entire draft came after the draft, when A.J. Smith signed an undrafted free agent who was passing up a potential NBA career for a chance to play TE in San Diego.
I tell this story because, when I think of A.J. Smith, I take out that 2003 season. Did he find some gems in the draft? Yes. Did he find some gems as undrafted free agents? Yes. Would he have signed David Boston to a 7-year deal? I don't think so. Would he have used his first two picks on cornerbacks? I can't imagine he would (especially not since Jammer was drafted with the first pick of the previous draft). So the 2003 team went 4-12, David Boston never got on the same page with Brees (or Schottenheimer) and the Chargers were once again given the #1 pick in the draft. It was like Smith was given a chance to show what he had learned from Butler.
(Smith was also able to get rid of the David Boston headache, trading him to the Dolphins for a sixth-round draft pick just a few weeks before Boston tested positive for steroids.)
You know the rest. Eli Manning for Philip Rivers, Nate Kaeding and Shawne Merriman. The countless drafted players that seemingly came out of nowhere to be stars (Shaun Phillips, Michael Turner, Darren Sproles, etc.). The even more numerous undrafted free agents that turned into major contributors on the team. The surly attitude towards players and media. The desire to build almost entirely through the draft, ignoring almost all free agents.
I judge a lot of head coaches by the record. There's some fairness to that, but in reality a coach can only work with the players he's given. A record is a representative of how good the coach and the GM are together, and if you're looking at them separately it's a beter barometer for how good the GM is than how good the coach is. When you take out that 2003 season, in which A.J. Smith was just trying to keep the ship afloat, the Chargers regular season record with Smith as GM is 67-29. That means that for every loss under A.J., the team has won at least twice.
I've said this before and I'll continue to believe it. Championships and playoff success have more to do with luck than anything else. The teams that win the most championships are not the ones that perform the best in the playoffs, but rather the ones that get to the playoffs the most (and give themselves the best chance to get lucky). The way to build a championship team is to build a consistently good team, one that will be in the playoffs on a yearly basis. That type of consistency starts at the top, and there's only a handful of teams with a leader at top that is as good as A.J. Smith.
0 recs |
57 comments
|
Comments
As a whole I mostly approve.
With some significant reservations, such as his free agent policy and his less-than-stellar drafts the last few years.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 9:17 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
other than 2008
what drafts were not that great?
Sure AJ has made a mistake or two in the drafts (Buster Davis and trading up to get Hester) but really look back at all the drafts and see how many starters and or major contributors they get each year.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 2, 2010 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
Wasn't a huge fan of 06 or 07.
We got a couple gems like McNeill and Nannee. Not sure if I’d count Cromartie as a positive or negative.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
2009 may not end up very good either
if English doesn’t pan out.
Vasquez is great, Martin has potential, but when you get to pick #16 overall you have to hit. And so far, English at the very least was not a good mid-first round choice.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
Half of the firsrt round picks end up being a bust
you have to look at the draft as a whole. Even if the Chargers get three starters out of this draft (Vasquez, Martin and Ellison) then that is a pretty good draft by most standards.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 2, 2010 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
Sure.
But only one of those guys is a starter. Jury is still out on the other two.
And I maintain you have to expect more out of a mid-first round draft pick than 50/50 bust potential.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
two are starters (Ellison and Vasquez)
The Stats don’t agree with you on having mid first round picks being a bust.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 2, 2010 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
Also its kind of hard to call English a bust at this point
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 2, 2010 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
John had a great post a while back
showing how the vast majority of elite pass-rushers make big impacts their rookie seasons. English failed to do that. I’d like nothing better than to see him turn it around, but the odds seem to be against him.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
3-4 OLBs anyways
DEs can take a little while longer.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on Mar 2, 2010 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
And it doesn't change the fact that even if there's a risk of bust
you should expect and try to select a starter at #16. English was from a small school, had to change positions, and was playing behind Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman. All that says “project” or “part-time contributor”.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
My main point about English right now
is that he was picked too high, and that AJ should have gone for someone who could start right away, rather than spend at least a year changing positions and playing behind established guys.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
In hindsight, he should’ve traded down (like the Patriots did) and picked up Donald Brown.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on Mar 2, 2010 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
I remember hearing chatter that if we hadn’t picked English, the Patriots planned to draft him rather than trade down. Did anyone else hear that?
I heard the same thing
but nothing substantial.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
Didn’t Donald Brown kind of suck this past season or am I confusing him with someone else?
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Mar 2, 2010 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
Fine, we should’ve traded down into the 2nd round and taken Shonn Greene.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
Thats assuming we could have found a partner
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 2, 2010 8:03 PM PST up reply actions
My guess is they could have.
A bunch of teams traded out of the first round.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
Cro has been a starter for 2.5 years
and would start on almost every team in the NFL…he may have issues but he has still been productive on the field.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 2, 2010 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
A.J. Smith annoys the hell out of me... and has been very good.
I do think he’s unnecessarily arrogant and abrasive, and I do think it has some effect on the locker room – but not in a way I can quantify.
I temper my feelings by remembering how rudderless the Chargers were before 2001. The biggest mistake Smith has made, I think, was in overvaluing his roster following 2006 and 2007, and drafting to fill small holes instead of continuing to build depth. He needs to score big this offseason.
Still, only 1 non-winning season for the Chargers since 2004. Hard to argue with that.
"As a confirmed melancholic, I can testify that the best and maybe only antidote for melancholia is *action*. However, like most melancholics, I suffer also from sloth." - Edward Abbey.
by Jeff (sliderockmpc) on Mar 2, 2010 9:35 AM PST reply actions
And only one season without the playoffs.
I agree though about over-valuing the roster.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
The biggest mistake Smith has made, I think, was in overvaluing his roster following 2006 and 2007, and drafting to fill small holes instead of continuing to build depth. He needs to score big this offseason.
As big of a fan of his as I am, I tend to agree with you there.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on Mar 2, 2010 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
I base my vote solely on the fact that Larry English blows.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Mar 2, 2010 9:44 AM PST reply actions
I remember Bethard and Butler to some extent
and they give me the shivers.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 2, 2010 9:55 AM PST reply actions
Besides the David Boston signing, John Butler was absolutely brilliant in his tenure as the Chargers GM. He took a 1-15 and brought them to 8-8 in two seasons by perfectly balancing veterans (Steve Foley, Doug Flutie) with young kids (Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson).
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on Mar 2, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
I usually
Lump in the Marcellus Wiley signing with David Boston. Even though Wiley had one good year, he was a clubhouse cancer, unproductive and very expensive later on.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
plus
Butler wasn’t real strong in the draft. Sure he drafted LT, Brees, and Jammer, but LT and Jammer were top 5 picks and Brees was a top of the 2nd round pick. None of his other picks really panned out and he didn’t really pick up and UDFAs of note.
but as John said: the Foley, Flutie, and Godfrey FA pickups were solid.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 2, 2010 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Leber wasn’t terrible. He wasn’t very good either, but it was a solid pick. I
Toniu Fonoti and Reche Caldwell were contributors to the 2004 team, that probably can’t be overlooked.
He didn’t draft him, but Eric Parker was acquired on Butler’s watch as a UDFA.
Ryan McNeil, Fred McCrary, Kelvin Garmon and Jason Fisk were other solid free agent signings.
Alex Molden, Stephen Alexander, Keith Lyle, Kwame Lassiter and Wade Richey can be added to the list of bad free agent signings though.
I’ll give Butler some credit for acquiring Tim Dwight in trade as well.
I can give him a minuscule amount of credit for 1 hit wonders Jason Ball and Jesse Chatman. As well as journeyman Justin Peele and a good special teamer in Carlos Polk.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
good point
but none of the guys you mention made more than one or two seasons worth of impact. Perhaps I’ve been a little spoiled by the drafting/UDFAs since Bultler. And our current FA philosophy is much more in line with my own (Don’t make a big splash with the big name FAs, sign your own, look for value, etc.).
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 3, 2010 8:12 AM PST up reply actions
English will be a good pro...
Don’t understand how you can say he “blows”… had a decent rookie year and watch….
He will get better !!!!!
I think you may need to eat those words….
Really my only complaint about AJ is his handling of the coaching staffs.
While I was not a fan of Marty and really thought that it was time for him to go (especially without Cam Cameron and Wade Phillips to make up for his lack of XO skills) I thought AJ did a very poor job in handling the situation (from the beginning). Also while I think Norv has done an admirable job I really don’t think he was the right hire especially when you go back and look at some of the other coaches that interviewed at the time. The other poor coaching decision I think that he made was hiring Ted Cottrell (I believe before Norv was hired).
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 2, 2010 10:00 AM PST reply actions
Pretty sure Cottrell was brought in by Norv, but I could be wrong.
I don’t understand why people are against their GMs having any personality at all. If I was a player, I’d love to work with a guy like Smith who was going to give it to me straight.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
by John Gennaro on Mar 2, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Cottrell was an AJ guy.
He had been pushing to hire him for a while, and a condition of accepting the HC job was accepting Cottrell as DC.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Mar 2, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Yes
That’s how it went. He wasn’t hired before Norv, but worked into the agreement.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
Cottrell
Was the D coordinator under Wade Phillips when A.J. and Wade were together in Buffalo.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I voted Approve because the numbers speak for themselves, but...
I too have issues with AJ as a GM. I really don’t care if he’s an elusive SOB. The team doesn’t pay him to be anyone’s friend. But my confidence has been shaken when it comes to the draft.
I’m not passing judgments on the past couple drafts because it’s too early for that, but I agree that this year’s draft is monumental in determining this team’s present and future sucess, and I just don’t have the confidence that AJ’s going to pull it off without at least 3 head-scratchers.
by Andy (allfield) on Mar 2, 2010 11:28 AM PST reply actions
Seriously.
No steroid test necessary.
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
He doesn't put up with BS
But some people see that as “abrasive”. I just don’t get it. I don’t know how anyone can really complain about he handles players. Great, good, or on the way out, they all get treated the same. He values youth, no injury problems, limited off field problems. If you can’t meet his standards, you’re gone. Simple as that. It’s business. Nobody at this point in the game should expect their GM to be all warm and fuzzy and give them pats on the head. It’s business and a hard one at that.
As for the picks, his last couple 1sts have been ok but not great. Buster has continuing injury problems. Cason looks to become a starter with Cro on the way out so we’ll see on that. I still think English is being brought along slower than normal because Merriman is still the starter and Larry is going to be his replacement. I don’t think we’ll know for sure until this year at the earliest, but more likely in 2011. Where AJ shined big time this year, finding all those replacements to fill injury holes on the defense this year to keep winning. That alone prooves to me this guy is without peer.
Mmmm
If my memory serves me right, if AJ had his way he would have let Marty go and hired Wade before Dallas. Marty sort of forced the issue after Wade got his job; I would say the coaching change from Marty to Wade would have been AJ preference while it did go from Marty to Norv had more of Dean signature on it
On drafting in general, i would rate AJ around a ‘B’. His first and second picks seem to lack impact; his later picks far and away more productive. So why is this? I am guessing he is trying to fill a spot than going with who he thinks is the best. Plus I have said before; you can draft out of context of your situations. Chargers are and have been trying to squeak in under cap; the 2 years with Hester/Weddle was I want solid football presence on the field not 20 million dollars a year prima donna who can’t be signed long term anyways. I personally wanted Oher over English, but no guarantees English would have been there 8 or 9 picks later. Ask me in 3 years about English, he was drafted and played backup, most #16 go to open position
As far AJ, being distant or aloof….who cares, it’s not like these guys are going drinking on the weekend. I can’t see where his personality would have any effect on the game. The past few years in the playoffs, the Chargers have been unlucky, boneheaded, or simply have enough party boys stand up and get the job done.
In either case, in any given year it seems the Chargers have a chance to make a run to SB which is mostly any GM can do? I certainly don’t miss Gilbride or Curtis Conway or any of those lame teams who doomed out of spring training camp
How many teams have drafter better than the Chargers, a few but not a lot; says something
Based on all the facts presented above I think it would be hard to disapprove of AJs tenure as GM of the Chargers, especially considering the state of the franchise before he and Butler came along. For all the Charger fans that endured the comic ineptness of the late 80s and 90s, where new and torturous methods were used to eviscerate a masochistic fan base, it is far more fun and rewarding to at least be relevant again. However, I am not sure if it is any less torturous to have justifiably high expectations now routinely not met. Sure, Sundays are now sunnier and the rest of the week breezier, but who is satisfied that a deep run in the playoffs for the Chargers means a first round bye? I think if you use relativity to determine the success of AJ Smith, than he has done a tremendous job, but if you use “lately” as your basis, I would say his grip on success is slipping and this upcoming season is put up or shut up time. He has assembled a team and a coaching staff that has been able to handle a weak division, and the other mediocre teams, but has only been able to solve one of the three teams that you need to get through in order to accomplish anything in this conference. Some of you may be complacent enough to call that a “success”, but I respectfully, and totally, disagree. And I, too, feel that luck plays a major role in the playoffs, having not just starters out, but players who are the best in the league at their respective positions out is positively unlucky, and beating the Colts is nice and not lucky, but routinely getting beat by the Patriots, Steelers and Jets is not about luck, it’s about not doing enough and the person who should be ultimately responsible for that is AJ.
How much of AJs failings as a GM have to do with his emotions and actions is hard to quantify and is debatable, but factoring that into his ability to do his job effectively is not irrelevant. I know it must frustrate those of you who use your We’re #1 foam finger to push your taped glasses back on your head while you crunch numbers that there is no metric to quantify the effect of emotion and personality on a position of leadership but it still matters. If it didn’t matter, Nixon would have beat JFK, and FDR would have given speeches from his wheelchair. The fact that AJ has an abrasive and callous personality by itself is fine, but the fact that his overbearing personality has had a direct, deleterious on-field effect at times should factor into his overall evaluation until he meets his own expectations and lives up to his own definition of success.
i agree mostly with this.
especially about the put or shut up time and winning a weak division.
i will stay my judgment about AJ until after this draft and season to see if 1) english pans out and 2) if his 1-2 round picks are productive in the upcoming draft.
Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.
* meant this as a reply to rocket surgery
Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.
Well,
Playoff appearences year ater year don’t lie. AJ Smith has done a good job
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
Unfortunately I fear that as soon as all the “lucky” gems he found in his early years are gone we will find that as a whole he has not done well since. I think he has rested on his laurels for too long and has taken too many risks in the early rounds of the draft since ‘06. He still finds the occasional stud late, but I wish he would go for more sure things early on. And for the love of Pete stop giving fat contracts to his favorite players who haven’t proven themselves yet (Castillo, Tucker and especially Wilhelm)
Approve
Generally I approve of his work. I haven’t agreed with everything he’s done, but its such a tough job in a competitive league that its unfair to expect perfection.
Bill Walsh, who I regard as one of the great coaches and team builders of all time, wrote that he expected a 20% failure rate in the NFL. 20% of all draft picks, signings and decisions in general are probably not going to work out. So if we take that as a reasonable baseline, I’d say AJs track record is pretty strong.
On a melodramatic note, I sometimes think of “To Kill a Mockingbird” when I think about AJ. There’s a line in the book about how people like Atticus Finch were born to do our unpleasant jobs for us. In a sense, AJ fits this description (not that I’m trying to equate the dream job of managing an NFL franchise to crusading for civil rights, of course). He has to make the tough decisions and do the things which we all realize have to be done but don’t really want to happen. The biggest example is letting LT go, something which had to happen but was painful nonetheless.
by CABurrito on Mar 3, 2010 12:11 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
At this point
I just want a impact player, anyone. Just hit on one first day pick please AJ, NT, DE, ILB, S, CB, OT, RB, and even OLB. Just get someone who contributes with big plays in 2010 and moving forward.
Just found this link
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Wilson-Dobbins-expected-to-get-secondround-tender.html
speculating on him receiving the 2nd round tender. Which is what I would have expected considering his increased role and solid STs work.
I hate AJ Smith
I hope he gets fired and never sees the light of the NFL again. He’s done an ever-so-slightly average job the last 3 years, but he seems to get stupider and more arrogant and putrid every year.
by Superduperboltman on Mar 3, 2010 6:36 AM PST reply actions
Is this satire?
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
i hate aj cuz...
he has a big ugly nose and he looks like gargamel, but besides that solid job pal! keep up the good picks in the late rounds and pick some starters in the 1st and 2nd rounds this year damn….we need a championship now dude.that’s all I have to say about that.

by 























