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BFTB Mock Draft

Our resident "uninformed" arm chair GM Steve (Grey Suit) and the Bolts From the Blue 2009 Mock Draft Champion and Representative GM (that's me, Wonko)  have been collaborating via email to come up with our very own Bolts From the Blue Mock Draft. We decided to divide it up so that I did the odds and Steve (Grey Suit) did the evens. Here are the first 5 picks, the remaining 27 come after the jump.

1. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Wonko: I'll go with the current trend and say that the Rams go QB. This is a lot like the 49ers in 2005. The Rams know that they can't ignore the QB position and they've got to pick one of the two guys that no one really sees as worthy of the #1 pick. I was in love with Bradford last year and he's the best of the top 2 this year so he goes to play by the Gateway Arch.

2. Detroit Lions - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Steve (Grey Suit): It’s really a toss up between McCoy and Suh at the top of most experts draft boards. McCoy looks to be the better pass rusher while Suh looks to be the more polished and better all around player. If the Rams take Bradford with the number one overall pick the Lions really can’t lose by picking either player.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Wonko: Boomer Sooner! Someone will have to pull up some stats about teammates drafted in the first 3 picks or something. Tampa Bay benefits the most from the Bradford to the Rams scenario since their pass rush sorely misses a dominant defensive tackle.

4. Washington Redskins - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Steve (Grey Suit): The OK state will continue to do well in the top of the 2010 NFL draft with the Redskins picking Oklahoma States Russell Okung, whom most experts believe to be a franchise quality left tackle prospect. If Okung falls out of the top three picks it would be great news for the Redskins who need to replace pro-bowl left tackle Chris Samuels after he suffered a career ending neck injury in October 2009.

5. Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Wonko: The Chiefs made a mistake when they let Bernard Pollard go and they'll make up for it here by adding the premier safety in this draft. This is a definite upgrade for the Chiefs, but unfortunately one that comes at the cost of missing out on taking a top offensive lineman. But hey, they have Thomas Jones now, he'll fix everything so who needs better linemen? In all seriousness, Eric Berry has too much value to pass up at this spot.

Star-divide

6. Seattle Seahawks - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Steve (Grey Suit): With the recent retirement of Walter Jones the Seahawks need to start the rebuilding process of what was once a great offensive line. Bulaga is a big offensive linemen with very quick feet and long arms. Bulaga is polished enough to start right away and should end up becoming a solid left tackle in the NFL for many years to come.

7. Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Wonko: I actually have Jason Pierre-Paul higher on my board than Haden, but I just think a 3-4 team will value Haden better than Pierre-Paul who profiles better as a 4-3 DE. Mangini was the HC when Revis was drafted so we know he thinks highly of the cornerback position. I was really close to picking Dez Bryant here, but maybe Holmgren is once bitten twice shy after drafting Koren Robinson so high. That's it, time for draft fun time with the Raiders.

8. Oakland Raiders – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

Steve (Grey Suit): I really wanted to go with Taylor Mays with this pick, he is big, fast and exactly the type of guy Al Davis goes after in the draft but the Raiders have three young safeties on their roster (all under the age of 23) and two of which were high draft picks. Other than Mays, Bruce Campbell is the next best thing to a typical Al draft pick, Campbell is very big man (6'6 314lbs) and is incredibly athletic (he ran a 4.85 40 at the combine). The Raiders also have a dire need at OT so this pick just makes a ton of sense…which kind of scares me we are talking about the raiders after all so really your guess is as good as mine as to whom the #8 overall pick will be.

9. Buffalo Bills - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

Wonko: I actually would think that Jason Pierre-Paul is more of a Raider-like pick. Whoops, I'm doing the Bills. They need someone to build around at QB. I personally don't rate Clausen this high, but the Bills can't keep sending the same guys out there and expect a different result. The Bills have so many holes though that they could go in almost any direction and this would be a good pick.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Earl Thomas, S, Texas

Steve (Grey Suit): Jacksonville’s true needs are at QB and OLB (in a 3-4) unfortunately there is really no one left on the board that would warrant this high of a pick at either position. Thomas is a bit young coming out as a red shirt sophomore and a bit small (at 5’11 195 lbs) but he stared 27 games for Texas over the last 2 seasons and never shies away from a big hit. Thomas is a hard-hitting ball hawking safety (he set a Texas record with 8 intersections this season) with great instincts and would be a big upgrade in the Jags secondary.

11. Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

Wonko: I tried really hard to think of a way to make the Mile High guys go insane with this pick, but I didn't want to get too out there. I assume that Dan Williams won't work because of the Jamal signing and everything else doesn't work well enough for me to justify it. I'll operate under the assumption that Marshall is gone this year or next and the Bryant gives them the #1 WR they need.

12. Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Steve (Grey Suit): Sorry Bolts fans I don’t see Williams getting past the Dolphins at #12. With the aging (35) and undersized (310) Jason Ferguson facing an eight game suspension to start the 2010 season (violation of the leagues performance enhancing drug program) the dolphins should be looking to add some beef up front through the draft.

13. San Francisco 49ers - Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB, South Florida

Wonko: Our draft was following Todd McShay's latest a little too closely, so I'll mix it ever so slightly. The 49ers take Pierre-Paul because I think he's the best player available and it keeps a couple of other teams from grabbing him. They still need right tackle help, but I imagine one of the tackles will be left when they make their second first round pick. With Pierre-Paul and Patrick Willis running wild on that defense, big plays are going to be even harder to come by against the '9ers.

14. Seattle Seahawks – Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Steve (Grey Suit): The Seahawks ranked 26th last year in sacks (with only 28), so getting a pass rushing DE should be one of their top items on their off seasons to do list. Personally I like Derrick Morgan a bit more than Griffen but I would imagine that Pete Carroll will remain loyal to his former player. Griffen knows Carroll’s system and should be able to make an impact from day one.

15. New York Giants - Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama

Wonko: I think the whole world is of the belief that if McClain makes it to the Giants they will sprint up to the podium to take him. They need linebacker help and this is the best linebacker available. Sure you can make some noise about his top speed, but he was a middle linebacker on a championship team with great tackling and diagnostic ability. He makes Big Blue better, bottom line.

16. Tennessee Titans - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Steve (Grey Suit): In my opinion Morgan is the best DE in the draft and the best player left on the board. The Titans will be counting their lucky stars if Morgan falls to them at #16. Morgan will provide the Titans the pass rushing DE they desperately need to replace Kyle Vanden Bosch.

17. San Francisco 49ers - Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

Wonko: Aha! I knew there'd be offensive linemen left. Since the 49ers already have a left tackle prospect on their team, they can sit and wait to find someone for the other bookend, but there's only 1 OG that projects as elite in this draft and it's Iupati.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Trent Williams, OT, Okalahoma

Steve (Grey Suit): Williams played both left and right tackle in his tenure at Oklahoma but seemed to have a bit more success defending the right side. Williams is not as polished as the linemen drafted before him, he may develop into a starting left tackle but unless his footwork improves he is more likely that he will end up on the right side of the line. Williams is a great run blocker and plays with a mean streak which I think makes him a perfect fit in the Burgh.

19. Atlanta Falcons - Brian Price, DT, UCLA

Wonko: The current Atlanta DTs are nothing special so they need an upgrade. Brian Price would be an excellent compliment to John Abraham and perhaps the catalyst that helps former 1st round pick Jamaal Anderson develop. Other mocks have the Falcons taking a DE to help the pass rush, but I'd rather stick with the DEs they have and try to upgrade their no name DTs.

20. Houston Texans – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Steve (Grey Suit): Running back may not be the Texans top need (my guess is that it’s DT and O-Line) but for a team that likes to use their running backs in the passing game, like the Texans do, to pass on Spiller at this point would be criminal.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Taylor Mays, S, USC

Wonko: The Bengals re-signed their previous strong safety Roy Williams, but he has trouble staying healthy. Mays can do basically what Williams can only faster (and younger), so he's a logical successor. Marvin Lewis has been quoted as saying he just wants to take the best player available and if the Bengals already don't ask for much coverage out of their SS then he probably is at the top of their board.

22. New England Patriots – Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

Steve (Grey Suit): The Patriots have some big holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball but with Welker’s return uncertain and Tate’s experience in a similar offence to what the Patriots run he may be too tempting to pass up.

23. Green Bay Packers - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Wonko: Priority number one for the Cheeseheads is keeping Aaron Rodgers upright. If they had done a better job at that early on they may have stolen the division from the Vikings. Davis is still a bit raw and will take time to develop, but the Packers need to make sure that Aaron Rodgers' blind side is protected for years to come.

24. Philadelphia Eagles – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

Steve (Grey Suit): The Eagles have two big needs to fill in this year’s draft, OLB and DE, depending on who their scouts like more they could either go with Brandon Graham who has the size (6’1 268 lbs) to play DE in a 4-3 or Sergio Kendle (Texas) who can get after the QB but projects to be your prototypical 4-3 OLB. In the end I think the Eagles will go with Graham because it is it will be easier to find value at OLB later in the draft than it will to find a pass rushing DE.

25. Baltimore Ravens - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

Wonko: The Ravens have been in need of a top corner for a while now and their defense needs to get younger. Ed Reed has also been muttering things about retirement so it could be really useful to have another play maker in the secondary. Some will want them to keep upgrading their offense, but their offensive line is good, Flacco is solid, Boldin provides an upgrade and Mason and Rice should be able to repeat their 2009 performances.

26. Arizona Cardinals – Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

Steve (Grey Suit): After switching to the 3-4 the Cardinals still need to find a dominate NT who can clog up the middle of the line, unfortunately none warranting a first round pick will be available at #26. With the recent free agent departure of Karlos Dansby the Cardinals have another big hole to fill on their defense. Weatherspoon should be able to fill the hole from day one and help to stabilize the AZ linebacking corps.

27. Dallas Cowboys - Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State

Wonko: Marcus Spears is a free agent in 2010 and you can never have too many quality defensive linemen. Odrick is a good fit for the DE position in the 3-4 so he gets the nod here. There are probably some guys the Cowboys would have liked to have fall here, so I'd expect them to maybe make a move up or down to avoid this situation if they see it coming. Aurelious Benn, Charles Brown and Nate Allen are other options if they don't make a deal. 

28. San Diego Chargers – Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

Steve (Grey Suit): No surprise here to Chargers fans, but to be honest I would be a bit surprised if AJ does in fact pick Mathews in the first round. The last time I was able to correctly predict a Charger first round draft pick was in 2004 with Eli Manning, and we all know how that worked out. Nobody except AJ and probably a few other Charger executives know what AJ has up his sleeve for this years draft, we do know however that AJ will pick the player he feels will help the team the most, regardless of where he is projected to go on other teams draft boards.

29. New York Jets - Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

Wonko: We're in the home stretch now with the final four and most of you have already stopped paying attention. Kindle has already fallen too far in this draft and represents a lot of value at this point. So I'll give him to the Jets to help them terrorize Brady some more.

30. Minnesota Vikings - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

The Vikings are a deep team and if Farve come back they can really take the best player available and plan for the future. You don’t see too many offensive Centers go in the first round but Maurkice Pouncey would make a good exception to that rule. Pouncey pretty much started every game he played in at Florida and consistently dominated against top competition.

31. Indianapolis Colts - Charles Brown, OT, USC

Wonko: Colts have to keep Manning protected. Charles Johnson isn't your prototypical LT, but he got them to the Super Bowl. They probably got lucky with that, so it's best to plan for the future and find an OL that can take over.

32. New Orleans Saints – Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

Steve (Grey Suit): With the departure of Scott Fujita and the potential departure of Darren Sharper the Saints should be looking at the Safety and Linebacker positions with their first pick, unfortunately for them there may not be a quality pick at either position when their turn comes around.  With no one to pick to fill their key areas of need, I think the Saints will end up taking the best defensive player left on the board in Carlos Dunlap.  There are questions/concerns about Dunlap’s maturity that may cause him to fall this far in the draft, but there are no questions about his productivity on the field (Dunlap is the all time sack’s leader at Florida with 19.5)

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I can certainly see the Rams trading down

Suh was such a beast in college that another team in the top 10 might
give up enough to get him first overall. Bradford will be around until #5 for sure
so maybe the Rams might try to get some extra value out of the top pick
since they will be taking a QB anyways. You can guarantee that they’ll be
picking Bradford but I don’t think he’ll fall past Seattle and Cleveland.

by riversformvp on Mar 15, 2010 9:33 AM PDT reply actions  

History suggests Washington would

But probably not this year, or at least until Haynesworth’s contract is near up.

by riversformvp on Mar 15, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Washington

I don’t think Bradford makes it past Washington either. So, if the Rams want Bradford they have to be in the top 3. But, if Det and TB know that the Rams want Bradford, which is obvious if they are trying to trade down, then they have no incentive to trade up.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

humor my idiocy for a moment

if AJ had his heart set on a CB at 28, who would he have taken, and how much of a reach would it have been?

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 15, 2010 10:04 AM PDT reply actions  

If you look back to my CB rankings

There is a top 5 set of corners and any one of them has first round values (and thus are not reaches). So Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson and Patrick Robinson would all be options there.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

My idiocy trumps your idiocy any day!

I think the fact that Matthews ran such a good 40 at the combine is the only thing that keeps him in the Chargers sights.

To be honest, I don’t really get the whole “big bruising RB who can run between the tackles” mentality to the first round pick. That’s not the Chargers offense. Therefore, it’s not what they need. To go that way — especially in the first round — disrupts their offense, because you now you have to feed that beast, which takes the ball out of PR’s hands and away from playmakers like Gates, Jackson, Floyd, Sproles, etc.

The only RB worth a 1st round pick who truly fits the Chargers’ scheme — in my mind — is Best. Yeah, I know he’s Sproles 2.0, but who not? How sickly dynamic would that offense be that can rotate Sproles and Best? It would revolutionize the NFL as we know it! Okay, you got a 3rd and short where you need a tough yard or two? That’s where you go with Tolbert.

Oh, and by the way, I’m not in favor of the Chargers taking an RB in the 1st round.

by Andy (allfield) on Mar 15, 2010 10:08 AM PDT reply actions  

It's funny

That the modern NFL is such that LT-sized backs are considered "big bruising RB who can run between the tackles."

I don’t like that style either, that’s why I don’t like Dwyer. I liked Matthews because he profiles as an all around type back that can do everything. That fits with the Chargers philosophy way better than the bruising RB.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Totally agree, with one caveat...

By all accounts, from what I’ve heard, Mathews “needs help in the passing game.” I know that doesn’t qualify him as a “project,” per se, but for a 1st rounder, I’d rather have a guy who is closer to turn-key, plug and play. Especially for this offense, and for the amount of money he’d be making.

But on April 25th, after our 3-day love-fest, I won’t kick Mathews out of bed.

by Andy (allfield) on Mar 15, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I heard it more as

“might need help in the passing game."

He didn’t get used that way much as a Bulldog. So, yeah, its a risk but such is life at the end of the first round. They did line him out wide at times in Fresno, which is something the Chargers do.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Id rather have Best, but agree Mathews might fit better

Hopefully we dont draft either though, and just reach for a Cody or grab Wilson or a OT they he falls to us. This draft is deep is RBs Im really not interested in drafting one in the first when someone like Ben Tate or Hardesty is likely to be there with our 2nd.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 10:22 AM PDT reply actions  

I'd rather have the better back (than Hardesty or Tate) and be assured of filling a hole

Than drafting something else and waiting. If they mock played out the way we drew it up, who would you pick at 28?

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Javid Best, Charles Brown, Cody, and Mathews. Probably in that order. But if that draft shakes out like that, the Chargers might just have to take a RB and hope for the best. It does look very realistic mock wise, I mean the board when the Chargers pick I guess; since its hard to predict the order of the picks.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

I see what you mean

Im just not convinced Mathews is a whole round better than Hardesty or Tate. Every year there seems to be fine backs that drop, the Chargers have dumbfounded me by not making a play for backs like Coffee and Choice.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree that fine backs drop

But 1st round type backs have a much higher rate of success than those backs that drop.

You’re gambling a lot more with the backs like Tate and Hardesty and Coffee and Choice who haven’t shown in college and in workouts that they are worthy of the first round. Sure, there are success stories, but there also more failure stories with those types of backs.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

I just scanned the last 5 drafts

And personally I dont see enough a difference between the 1st and 2nd round guys to warrant drafting one in the first.

But if I have to choose one Id choose Best.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah well the farther you go back

The farther away you get from the reality of the NFL; which is platooned backfields.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Again Im talking about value, you are talking about production. Of course 1st round guys have more production, but its my opinion that its still doesnt justify selecting one in the first.

Unless I pointed out earlier, its someone like Best.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nope

See my post below. Im saying that you only get one first round pick. And that if someone said I had to find production and value with my 2nd, that RB would be a great position to try.

Based off the draft history’s and the current draft depth.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

see my post below

the stats say that theory does not hold water.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 15, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Take a look at

this from football outsiders by guest columnist Tim Murray. The highest percentage of backs come from the first round. Here’s the graph from the article (but still read the article).

The blue bars represent the percentage of league wide starters drafted in that round. The red bars represent the percentage of league wide starters drafted in that round that are still with the team that drafted them.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Beat me too it

Also if you look at the top 16 rushers (top half of the 32 teams) last season, 10 are first round picks, and if Frank Gore was not injured coming out of college it would have been 11.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 15, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

You could post a graph similar to that for all positions

It just shows that 1st round selections fair better big deal, problem is you only get one first round pick. So you have to try to hit on a 2nd round pick because thats the way the draft works. My point is if you have to try and find a way to find “value” or production with a 2nd round pick, RB is not a bad position to try.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

once again the stats disagree

of the top 16 rushers only 2 were second round picks, which is the same number as 3rd round picks (although Gore should not count) and UFA.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 15, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're talking about the stats of a first round player

And Im talking about the value of the position with respect overall. Which you seem to believe equate. So post you stats about the top 16 rushers of 2009.
How about you post the teams that rushed for the most yardage in 2009?

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

The value of the position overall is in the first round

It does have more value in the second round than a couple of other positions, but that doesn’t mean you should be passing on first round backs to take one in the second round. Especially, when one is at the top of the draft board and it looks likely that Matthews will be.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

That value at every position is in the first

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

wrong

Did you read the article. Where is the value for safeties? The second round. Where is the value for WR2? It’s a tie between the first and second. Where is the value for OG? Or RT? Or C? Not in the first round. And it’s pretty darn close OLBs and ILBs.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ive seen all the articles

And Im advocating position value, yes. I want Best, to reach for a NT, or a corner; in that order.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

or Matthews.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

ok

here are the top 10 rushing teams and the % of thier rushing production (from thier running backs) that was produced by a first round pick.
1. Jets 57%
2. Titans 88%
3. Panthers 93%
4. Dolphins 87%
5. Ravens 26%
6. Saints 20%
7. Cowboys 35%
8. Browns 30%
9. Bengals 81%
10. Jaguars 0%

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 15, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

What happens when you remove the rushing yardage by a back that was drafted in the first but changed teams, because you shouldnt count that.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Of course you have to count that.

Otherwise you’ll have to remove the bias’ from the other guys as well. You can’t just tailor stats that way, its bad analysis.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

HAHA

You are arguing stats based on a team drafting a 1st round rusher, not stealing one from another club. So it makes good sense to remove that yardage.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

You can see where Im going though, subtract the yardage from backs that switched teams and it starts to be clear that drafting a first round running back as opposed to a 2nd doesnt make as much sense as you think.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

and when there’s no free agent RBs left

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Mar 15, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

true true

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

However

Lewis, MacGahee and Williams were all good for the teams that drafted them as well. You could have an argument on Jones and Benson though.

Also, you might as well remove rushing yards from all backs drafted after the 3rd since you aren’t advocating that either. Are you?

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also most of it will stay the same

Titans drafted C. Brown
Panthers drafted both Stewart and Williams
Dolphons drafted R. Brown
Cowboys drafted Jones
Saints drafted Bush

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 15, 2010 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Titans

drafted C. Johnson I think you mean.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Titans did draft a Chris Brown too

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

but not in the first round.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I understand what you are trying to say

But, what you asked him to do doesn’t make for good analysis.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

There is already some flaws in this anyway

Basically, by only taking the top 10 teams, we are basically saying that the Minnesota Vikings drafting Adrian Peterson has no effect on whether or not it’s worth drafting 1st round running backs. I suspect that statement doesn’t pass the sniff test.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did you see AP drop the football in that playoff game. The Vikes might have been better off with a scrub that could hold onto the football.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

There definitely seems to be enough evidence

That you don’t want to pass on a RB in the first just because you want to draft it later. You definitely don’t want to reach for one because a fair amount of RBs come from later on.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Here Ill do it for you

Jets
Titans
Carolina
Dolphins
Ravens
Saints
Cowboys
Browns
Bengals
Jags
Chiefs
Pats
Vikes
Pack
ATL
Buffalo
Giants

Ok Steve now those are the top 16 rushing teams in 2009. Now could you do me a favor and figure out how many of them have first round picks that they drafted as leading rushers?

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

I believe 8 of them do

Without looking anything up. 9 if Larry Johnson led the Chiefs, but I don’t believe he did.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

down to 7

Wasn’t as up on my Bills RB stats as I should be I guess.

Only 1 2nd round pick, I believe. MJD.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

I counted 5

I counted 6 I think, I also counted 6 teams with platoon scrub backfields.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yup it's 6

including the first 4 on your list (not sure if there was an order to it). The Dolphins and Panthers both had their top 2 rushers as first round picks. The Panthers second leading rusher would be the number 1 on probably half of those teams.

I had counted the Browns because I though Jamal Lewis led the team.

That still has to be the most out of any round in the draft.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Miami and the jets did not draft their leading rushers, so it’s really just 4.

by BORTZ on Mar 15, 2010 12:13 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

it's still first round talent.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

of course it is

but its not what he asked.

by BORTZ on Mar 15, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually

It is.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

actually, it's not.
how many of them have first round picks that they drafted as leading rushers

They (Jets and Dolphins) did not draft Jones or Williams.

by BORTZ on Mar 15, 2010 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh okay

That’s not what we were originally talking about, I missed the part where the conversation had changed.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just don't think

We can afford to “try.” The Chargers need to hit on the RB position. They have a much better chance of hitting on Matthews (or even Best) than they do with the running backs who grade out lower.

You don’t want to be coming out of this draft going, darn we missed on a RB because we took a second round guy, but damn we sure upgraded that nickelback position.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Yes I agree. We certainly dont want to take a NB only to miss on a RB. So I think we should either reach on a NT or take Best.

Old school tin foil must be used, not the aluminum crap.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

or Matthews

Since he will most likely be the best RB on the board.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

As an FYI

On my board, Matthews was the third best player left in the draft at that point. Only Benn and Kindle had higher grades. (Of course, I wasn’t even the one making the pick). So it seemed like we were getting good value for Matthews. Cody has a 3rd round grade, so it’d be a tremendous reach to take him there. Cam Thomas has a second round grade, so if we were to go that direction that would make more sense to me.

With Best, it is just hard to draft a Sproles clone with Sproles currently tied to the Chargers.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Best vs. Sproles

Sproles only really got touches his senior season, but he got 244 of them that year. Let’s compare that to 2008, the year that Best had the most carries

Sproles – 244 carries, 1,318 yds (5.4 ypc), 11 TD. 32 rec, 223 yds.
Best – 194 carries, 1,580 yds (8.1 ypc), 15 TD. 27 rec, 246 yds, 1 TD.

Best is obviously the better running back. Also, with 4+ inches and roughly 20 lbs on Sproles, I think he has the ability to be an inside RB in a spread-out passing offense. Hell, Best is almost exactly the same size as Brian Westbrook (who, before he started getting concussions, proved himself to be a good inside runner).

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Mar 15, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yep I agree

I dont like that people say he’s like Sproles, because they are different even though they are both a little lighter and both return kicks. Plus I tevo enough Cal games to know Best can do it all, inside outside whatever.
My point is if we draft a 1st round back fine, but get a “playmaker”; because backs that arent are available later and there’s lots in this draft.

If we really are suppose to use Tolbert/Hester more, Id be fine with Best, Sproles, Tolbert , and Hester as our four gameday backs. We could also draft a mid-late round RB to sit on gamedays instead of having a vet their.

by Foilhat on Mar 15, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Inside Runner

Best is only good inside when he gets a solid seem to run through. However, as we saw with LT, those seems are necessarily there and you have to be able to get by at least one guy going inside. The scouting reports on Best say that he struggles with this, whereas Matthews does not.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Damn your scouting reports!

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Mar 15, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think I've made this point before

Mathews – 19 career receptions (3 years)
Dwyer – 15 career receptions (3 years)
Best – 62 career receptions (3 years)
Spiller – 123 career receptions

I don’t want Mathews for the same reason I don’t want Dwyer and the same reason Michael Turner wouldn’t have worked very well as a starting RB in this offense. He’s a one-dimensional RB.

Why has Best slipped out of the first round and Mathews come up? Didn’t Best run the 3rd best time of any RB in the history of the combine?

"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22

by John Gennaro on Mar 15, 2010 10:31 AM PDT reply actions  

I think the thought is

Best will be as good as he ever gets when he comes out. You just can make him an inside runner

Matthews is already as good of a runner as Best, plus he can run inside. But teams also see areas they can develop to make him a better back. I don’t think they see his passing skills as an area of absolute weakness, but one that just haven’t been given a chance to develop.

They both have injury concerns, so you can almost cancel that part out.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

one-dimensional is not what I think of when I think of Matthews.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Best hasn’t slipped, he was already out of the first round when he ran his 40. He just confirmed what people already knew by running a great 40 time.

Matthews came in with questions about his top end speed. So when his 40 time came in, those questions were removed and he his stock increased.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mathews only caught 19 receptions...

because of the offense ran at Fresno. Fresno doesnt pass often and when they do, its forced to the recievers or TE. Plus, Fresno always rotates their backs (regardless of having a stud like mathews). Last year, Fresno had a sproles clone in robby rouse. Mathews can catch the ball, Fresno just chose not to use him.

That is why Mathews is better than his stats. Look at his stats and realize his best games were against two BCS bowl teams, wisc, etc. That and the fact that Fresno’s offense is very predictable…. run straight, sweep left, sweep right.

Mathews is a better fit for SD because he can wear teams down through the fourth. Best is too small, and its not his style. Remember the SD teams that got a lead then just turned it over to LT. Mathews could do the same.

by gl12ox05 on Mar 15, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Saints

would get more value for their team from Brandon Spikes at 32. Definitely worth it.

by fwedo on Mar 15, 2010 11:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Also

The Saints have a good MLB in Vilma.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

They run a lot of 3-4.

http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=2009+saints+3-4&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Spikes just seems like a natural replacement for Fujita.

I do like the Dunlap pick though.

by fwedo on Mar 15, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't say they don't,

I said they run a lot of 3-4 and give their opponent a lot of looks. Hence why Spikes wouldn’t be a waste.

by fwedo on Mar 16, 2010 6:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Meh either way

I think he would make a good outside LB in the 4-3 so it wouldn’t be a waste, I just think it would be a bit of a reach at that point in the draft and Dunlap would help the saints more down the road.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 16, 2010 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Spikes just put up a 5.00+ 40 time

No one is going to even consider using him in the 4-3 as an OLB.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 17, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

I seriously doubt

that AJ Smith will get a RB in the first round.

by Kame on Mar 15, 2010 12:19 PM PDT reply actions  

It really would not surprise me either way

When it comes to the first round of the draft AJ is a riddle wrapped inside of an enigma wrapped inside of a Tommy Bahama shirt.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 15, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I would be shocked if Everson Griffen was drafted by the Hawks at #14.

Carroll would be setting himself up for a lot of criticism with that pick, especially when he’s already said that he thought many USC players were overvalued coming out of college and #14 is a big reach for Griffen. Derrick Morgan is a top 5 talent that will fall only because there are so many 3-4 teams at the top of the draft. If the Seahawks go DE @ 14, there is no way they don’t take Morgan.

It’s also being reported that the Seahawks ran Morgan’s drills at his pro day. So they’re at least giving him a close look.

by Mind of no mind on Mar 15, 2010 1:41 PM PDT reply actions  

You can take that one Steve

I had the same thoughts when you made that pick.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't know that the Seahawks had worked Morgan out at his proday

Like I said in the writeup, Morgan is the better player, I was just trying to think outside the box a bit. The two players could easily be swaped in the Mock as it stands now.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 15, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

To be fair, the news about the Hawks working him out just came out today as far as I know, so was probably not available when you made the pick.

I do like the positions addressed with the picks though, since LT and DE would both fill big needs. If we got Bulaga and Morgan I’d be very happy.

by Mind of no mind on Mar 15, 2010 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just letting you all know that I ended up making your pick on the Jags blog. My intent was to go there and see about making the COlTs or make sure the other guy I know was there to do it.

When I got there they needed a guy for your pick so I stepped in made a suggestion and they made that the pick. I debated two players but this is what my final decision was:

With The 28th Pick of the NFL draft the San Diego Chargers select Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State.

 I was very tempted to take Rolando McClain because there is no way in the real thing that he falls out of the 1st round. However I feel that RB is just a little bit more of a Need for them than CB and they will be able to get a decent CB in the 2nd. RB is a need after they lost LdT and and have no idea what will happen with Sproles. For one Matthews will give them a solid back who can play every down if needed or in this case the bigger lowed that sproles can’t handle.

Co-Leader of the annual 7 round live mock draft at MtD

by TheAngelsColts on Mar 15, 2010 4:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Oh and I like the pick for the Colts :)

Co-Leader of the annual 7 round live mock draft at MtD

by TheAngelsColts on Mar 15, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't really have any other choice

If I had picked Brown with the Cowboys or something, I have no clue what I would have done with the Colts pick.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 15, 2010 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

great read wonko and grey suit

Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.

by tonik on Mar 15, 2010 5:23 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

best player available

I think a serviceable running back can be had in later rounds, so I think filling one of our other holes makes more sense with the first pick. That said, we should pick the best available player that fills one of our needs, if that’s a running back then so be it. A good running game would open up the passing game more and wear down the defense. (see jets/chargers game) But, our defense was our weak link last year. reminiscent of the air coryell days where it was up to our offense to outscore the other team. I would like to see a top 10 defense to back up our high powered offense.

by irishlad on Mar 16, 2010 7:13 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm kind of surprised

We don’t have an Mile High or AP guys complaining about my picks for them. I guess I should have picked Tebow instead of Dez Bryant and riled them up a little more.

I would have thought that maybe the AP guys would spout of some explanations as to why they wouldn’t draft Berry.

I guess they just don’t care about us any more.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 16, 2010 10:54 AM PDT reply actions  

AP guy here haha

Actually I agree with your pick. If we are able to trade down though Id be stoked. Id like to take McClain a few picks later if we can pull it off. I do think you are wrong about us releasing Pollard though. He was the same Pollard we had basically a guy that can lay the wood and makes lots of tackles but he also whiffs on a lot of tackles and sucks in coverage. We did improve our oline today as well by picking up Ryan Lilja. But good job I agree with the pick!

by tomahawk44 on Mar 16, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thought I might chime in on RB versus other positions

The Chargers went 13-3 last year without a dominant run game or an anchor in the middle of the line. It doesn’t look like we can grab both this year, so I’m already looking to the 2011 draft.

The only marquee DT not declaring this year is UNC’s Marvin Austin. By contrast, next year’s class of backs includes Mark Ingram Jr., Evan Royster, Noel Devine, DeMarco Murray, and Emmanuel Moody. Those guys project to have solid years and at least two of them should go in the first round barring a terrible year or major injury. I think the Chargers might be better served just to go with Mathews or BPA this year.

Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.

by StrangeBroP25 on Mar 16, 2010 6:11 PM PDT reply actions  

Those backs aren't sure things

Noel Devine is small, 5’8 175 lbs soaking wet.
DeMarco Murray has taken a pounding in college and is kind of a weird size to begin with at 6’1 210 lbs. Long and lean is not something that most people look for in backs. That being said, he’s explosive.
Royster is also a long and lean back at 6’2 213. I don’t know if this is a new trend or something, but I don’t like it. I’ve also got this feeling that Royster will stay 4 years, but I could be wrong.
Moody hasn’t really been able to establish himself at USC or Florida so I’m not sure how he’s going to grade out. He’s got skills, but he needs production. I’m not ready to call him a top back for 2011, yet.

Ingram is obvious the exception to my quibbles. He’s a legit first round prospect at this point. His size is perfect, his top speed is perfect, his production is perfect and he’s even the son of an NFL player. The Chargers have no shot at drafting high enough to get him.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 17, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oklahoma State's Kendall Hunter

Probably should be added to that mix too. He had an ankle injury in 2009, but was real good in 2008. He’ll have a new QB, a new LT and a new #1 WR which will make it tough, but it will also increase his stock if he succeeds in spite of that.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 17, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Toby Gerhart

How come everybody is down on Toby, he was the best running back in the nation last year.

by jdid on Mar 17, 2010 6:52 PM PDT reply actions  

But, unfortunately for him

That didn’t make him the best NFL prospect at RB in the nation.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 17, 2010 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

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