Taking a Look at A.J. Smith's Past Charger Drafts
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 5:30 AM PST
in NFL Draft
72 comments
So, the football season is officially over. Now is the time when the thoughts of every red-blooded football fan turn to the upcoming draft. Sure, we'll have free agency before then, but every quality team in the NFL gets the majority of its players, the backbone of its team, through the draft. A lot of the reactionary fans tend to either blindly claim that A.J. Smith is either the biggest genius or the biggest idiot they have ever seen assemble an NFL football team. The only way to really be objective about this is to take a look at past drafts. AJ admitted last year at this time that he had to do better, so let's take a look back as see how he has done.
Keep in mind that you typically need three years to evaluate a draft. By the third year, a player can be accurately evaluated as to their NFL potential. For some players it comes earlier, but typically we need to give a player three years. I've looked at every player we've drafted since 2001, plus any draft slots we traded away and what we got for them. I've also included Undrafted Free Agents (UDFA) who we picked up after the draft and made an impact (either here or elsewhere in the league).
Each player is objectively measured on a scale from "made team" to MVP. A full time starter is any player who earned a starting spot and held on to it. Guys who started a long time yet were just injury replacements will not be categorized as full time starters (like Mooch this year), but guys who knocked someone out of their starting position and held onto it will be categorized as full time starters (like Ellison this year). Anyone who was either selected to the pro bowl or made it there as an injury replacement gets marked as a pro bowler (If David Garrard continues to go to the pro bowl I will need to rethink this). A player name formatted with strike-through is no longer on the team.
So, let's get to it!
| 2009 | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(16) | Larry English | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 2(47) | traded to NE for Hester pick (2008) | ||||||||
| 3(78) | Louis Vasquez | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 4(113) | Vaughn Martin | Y | Y | ||||||
| 4(133) | Tyronne Green | compensatory pick (Michael Turner) | Y | ||||||
| 4(134) | compensatory pick (Drayton Florence). | ||||||||
| 5(148) | Brandon Hughes | On IR all rookie season | Y | ||||||
| 6(189) | Kevin Ellison | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 7(224) | Demetrius Byrd | on Reserve / Non football injury list | Y | ||||||
| UDFA | C.J. Spillman | Made team out of camp (Active 7 weeks) | Y | Y | |||||
| UDFA | James Holt | Started on practice squad, but was pulled up mid-season | Y | Y | |||||
| 2008 | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(27) | Antoine Cason | Y | Y | Y (nickel) | |||||
| 2(57) | traded to miami for Chris Chambers | ||||||||
| 3(69) | Jacob Hester | Traded 5th rounder and 2009 2nd rounder to NE to move up | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 3(90) | traded in 2007 to move up to pick Weddle | ||||||||
| 4(125) | Used in 2007 Supplemental Draft - Oliver | ||||||||
| 5(160) | traded to NE to move up to pick Hester | ||||||||
| 5(166) | compensatory pick (Donnie Edwards) | ||||||||
| 6(192) | Y | ||||||||
| 7(234) | Y | ||||||||
| UDFA | Mike Tolbert | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| UDFA | Brandyn Dombrowski | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| UDFA | Ogemdi Nwagbuo | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 2007 | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(30) | Buster Davis | Y | Y | ||||||
| 2(37) | Eric Weddle | Moved up, trading our 62 overall pick plus 93rd, plus 167th, plus 2008 3rd rounder | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||
| 2(62) | traded for Weddle pick | ||||||||
| 3(93) | traded for Weddle pick | ||||||||
| 3(96) | compensatory (Drew Brees, Reche Caldwell, Ben Leber, Justin Peelle) | Y | Y | ||||||
| 4(129) | Y | ||||||||
| 4 (S) | Paul Oliver | 4th Round Supplemental Pick | Y | Y | |||||
| 5(167) | traded for Weddle pick | ||||||||
| 5(172) | Legedu Naanee | compensatory (Drew Brees, Reche Caldwell, Ben Leber, Justin Peelle) | Y | Y | |||||
| 6(204) | traded to Nashville for Volek | ||||||||
| 7(240) | Brandon Siler | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| UDFA | Jyles Tucker | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| UDFA | Antwan Applewhite | Y | Y | ||||||
| 2006 | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(19) | Antonio Cromartie | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||
| 2(50) | Marcus McNeill | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||
| 3(81) | Charlie Whitehurst | Y | |||||||
| 4(113) | traded to StLouis for Manumaleuna | ||||||||
| 5(151) | Tim Dobbins | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 6(187) | Jeromey Clary | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 6(188) | from miami (for Cleo Lemon, we also got AJ Feeley) | ||||||||
| 7(225) | |||||||||
| 7(227) | from minnestota (for Fonoti) | ||||||||
| UDFA | Steve Gregory | Y | Y | Y | Y (nickel) | ||||
| 2005 | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(12) | Shawne Merriman | from NYG in Manning Trade 2004 | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| 1(28) | Luis Castillo | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 2(61) | Vincent Jackson | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||
| 3(91) | traded to bucs in McCardell Deal | ||||||||
| 4(130) | Darren Sproles | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 5(144) | from NYG in Manning Deal, traded to Bucs for Roman Oben | ||||||||
| 5(164) | |||||||||
| 6(177) | from Miami (for David Boston) | ||||||||
| 6(203) | traded to bucs in McCardell Deal | ||||||||
| 7(242) | Scott Mruczkowski | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 2004 | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(1) | drafted Eli Manning then traded for Rivers, 3rd round pick (65), and 2005 1st and 5th rounder | ||||||||
| 1(4) | Philip Rivers | From NYG in Manning Trade | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| 2(35) | Igor Olshansky | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 3(65) | Nate Kaeding | From NYG in Manning Trade | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| 3(66) | Nick Hardwick | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||
| 4(98) | Shaun Phillips | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 5(133) | Y | Y | |||||||
| 5(154) | from miami (for Seau). Full time starter and Pro Bowler with Atlanta | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 6(169) | Y | Y | |||||||
| 7(204) | Ryon Bingham | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 7(209) | from atlanta (for Trevor Gaylor) | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 7(254) | compensatory pick | ||||||||
| UDFA | Didn't make it out of camp, eventual repeat pro bowler w/ NE | ||||||||
| 2003 | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(15) | trade to Philly for Philly's 1st and 2nd | ||||||||
| 1(30) | from philly for #15 | Y | Y | Y (nickel) | |||||
| 2(46) | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 2(62) | from philly for #15 | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 3(80) | Y | Y | |||||||
| 4(112) | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 5(149) | Mike Scifres | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||
| 6(188) | Y | Y | Y (special teams) | ||||||
| 7(229) | Y | Y | Y | ||||||
| UDFA | Kassim Osgood | Y | Y | Y (special teams) | Y (special teams) | ||||
| UDFA | Kris Dielman | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||
| UDFA | Antonio Gates | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||
| UDFA | Jacques Cesaire | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| UDFA | Stephen Cooper | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 2002 - Butler | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(5) | Quentin Jammer | Y | Y | Y | Y | ||||
| 2(39) | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 2(48) | from 2001 vick trade | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 3(71) | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 4(103) | Y | Y | Y | ||||||
| 5(142) | Y | ||||||||
| 6(178) | |||||||||
| 7(216) | Y | ||||||||
| 2001 - Butler | |||||||||
| Rnd. | Player | Notes | Made Team | Played | occasional starter | full time starter | pro bowl | repeat pro bowl | MVP |
| 1(1) | traded with Falcons for #5, #67, 2002 2nd rounder and Tim Dwight (for Michael Vick pick) | ||||||||
| 1(5) | LaDainian Tomlinson | from vick trade | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| 2(32) | went on to make additional Pro Bowls with the saints | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | |||
| 3(63) | trade for trevor Gaylor | ||||||||
| 4(96) | traded to NE for 4th and 5th rounder | ||||||||
| 3(67) | from vick trade | Y | Y | Y | |||||
| 4(112) | from NE trade | Y | Y | ||||||
| 5(132) | Y | ||||||||
| 5(139) | from NE trade | Y | Y | ||||||
| 6(164) | trade to dolphins for Nate Jacquet | ||||||||
| 7(201) | Y | ||||||||
| 7(244) | compensatory | Y | |||||||
Sources include wikipedia and this nifty site: http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/ . Also, http://www.kffl.com is a good site to figure out exact dates on call-ups or historical inactive lists.
In terms of production, let's assume the last two drafts still need some maturing before they can be evaluated. One thing that jumps out is the sheer number of pro bowlers picked. At least 2 per year until 2007. Through 2007, he has averaged over 2 pro bowlers per year. For comparison, I looked through wikipedia and came up with the chart of how many players from each round of each draft made the pro bowl. I know the pro bowl isn't the perfect indicator, but it is probably roughly good enough.
Pro Bowl Counts
| Year | |||||||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Avg. | ||
| Round | 1 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2.8 | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | |
| 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | |
| UDFA | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3.4 | |
| TOTAL | 36 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 15 | ||
The average number of pro bowlers picked per draft per team is 0.8. So when AJ is averaging 2+ that is significantly better.
Also, AJ's rate of success with his top picks is very good. Outside of Sammy Davis and Buster Davis all his first and second round picks draft picks have become full time starters and 5 of 12 are pro bowlers.
Looking at second day picks (rounds 3-7 and I think this definition is changing this year since round 1 will be its own day) 8 of 29 have become full time starters, with an additional 4 making the pro bowl.
Another interesting stat is the quantity of picks. A GM can stockpile picks via trades or compensatory selections (picks you are given by the league to make up for free agent loses). The Chargers have averaged 7.7 picks per draft from 2003-2009, which is above the average which would be roughly 7 which is below the average of slightly less than 8 (7 rounds of 32 picks + 32 compensatory picks - picks lost due to penalties)
AJ has also done a really good job of picking up quality Undrafted Free Agents (college guys who weren't drafted in the 7 round draft). 2003 was just ridiculous picking up Dielman, Gates, and Osgood (pro bowlers) and Cooper and Cesaire. Through AJ's 7 drafts, he has picked up 13 UDFAs who have gotten significant playing time and 3 of which were pro bowlers.
Most of us can agree that AJ's drafts have been excellent and have been one of the primary ingredients in turning the Chargers into the powerhouse they are today. For those of us who witnessed some of those late career Beathard stinkers, AJ seems almost infallible in comparison. That being said, his last three drafts (2007, 2008, 2009) have been less productive and the tendency to trade future picks to move up in rounds to pick guys like Hester and Weddle worries me. I think part of it is a subtle shift in AJ's strategy from stocking an empty cupboard (2003-2006) to fine tuning a championship caliber roster. But I still don't like it. I am comfortable with most of my criticism of him being in the last three years of drafting. Those guys have yet to really mature and there might still be some diamonds in the rough (Buster, English) who will come through big with a little more seasoning and opportunity.
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Great Post!
I’ve always been a fan of smith, even when he gets slammed in the media for being kind of a jerk (deservedly so sometimes), and I think this post really illustrates his value.
07 and 08 definitely do see a drop off when it comes to quantity, but Weddle and Siler have been two of our more consistent players (not to mention Naanee, who could be huge next year if/when Floyd leaves). Cason still has room to improve, but Nwagbuo, Dombrowski and Tolbert have all shown flashes of (in Nwagbuo and Tolbert’s case) real talent and (in Dombrowski’s case) real usefulness.
That being said, I think Smith will get a chance to quiet his critics this year. We’ll have a chance to decide between a lot of talented backs at the back end of the first round… and that pick may be our missing piece for next year. Can Jonathan Dwyer play in a pro-style offense (as in, block and catch passes)? Can Jahvid Best prove that he didn’t just beat up the weak teams on his schedule (55, 47, and 29 yards against Oregon, USC, and Oregon State respectively). I guess we’ll see!
I do have to say, this is the most excited I’ve been for a draft in a long time.
Shaq as an undercover cop:
Shaq: yo man, can I score some dope?
Dealer: Motherf****r, you shaq.
Some of these drafts are unbelievable
2004-2006 were some of the greatest drafts in team history. No Pro Bowlers since. Time for Weddle, Siler, Naanee and Buster to take the next step.
2009 was a good draft, but English is going to determine whether it goes down as great or just average.
I think it’s funny that AJ Smith seems to have a better record at finding starters in UDFA than he does in the actual draft picks.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
Weddle
has really come on the past year or so as one of rocks on the defense. I always hear people picking on him for making the occasional bad play, but I think he has made great improvements and will continue to improve. It is really refreshing to see a guy who isn’t afraid to wrap up a guy and bring him to the ground instead of trying to knock his teeth out and letting him slip away for an extra 10 yards.
I cannot wait to see this year’s draft. AJ clearly has a talented staff that can spot a good player and it will be interesting to see what they do about the issue of RB (which was attempted with Gartrell and failed, which we can’t afford this year).
Something funny I noticed
AJ let Drew Brees walk. He ended up on the Saints. In compensation AJ picked up Anthony Waters who was promptly cut and end up guess where…the Super Bowl winning Saints.
Anybody know more on that?
It wasn’t a football thing, from what I gathered at the time. KA hinted that Waters was into something the team didn’t want to have around, but wouldn’t elaborate. And we have lots of decent LBs: Waters would have been a face in the crowd. Our LB problem is that either we lack stars, or our only star has no sense of job security, depending on how you look at it.
You know, AJ could fix that with a word. Wouldn’t cost a penny. Just a public statement that a new deal for Merriman has most certainly not been ruled out. Zero logical meaning, except as a shot-across-the-bow for English and a carrot of hope for Lights Out.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 8, 2010 7:58 AM PST up reply actions
Waters never contributed anything at all, even on special team. I’ve heard rumors of drugs, but not from the team or anyone who I would suspect of knowing anything.
AJ also picked Naanee as part of that Drew Brees compensation.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
Wasn't that for Reche Caldwell?
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 8, 2010 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
we lost four free agents that year (Ben Leber and Justin Peele as well)
and were awarded 2 compensatory picks for all 4 losses. My notes don’t specify which pick was for which FA loss. But, there may be more accurate information out there.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
They NFL doesn't announce
How they decide those picks. They just announce which picks you get as compensation with no record as to who got you what pick. So that would explain why you don’t have that noted.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 8, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That's why I couldn't find it.
But it’s one pick per net player lost, and we got the first overall comp pick that year. So no matter how you shake it out, that 5th rounder wasn’t for Brees.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 8, 2010 5:23 PM PST up reply actions
Has cro made it to multiple pro-bowls?
I thought he only made it in 07.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Feb 8, 2010 7:06 AM PST reply actions
he was an alternate. But in my rating system that counts. All I am really trying to capture is if this guy is an above average NFL player.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 8:04 AM PST up reply actions
Def. No way is he an "average" player or even an average starter
He’s a superstud with a massive downside.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 8, 2010 8:06 AM PST up reply actions
Except for Ellison and Vasquez, the last 2 years have been worthless. Cason, Hester and English can make it all better though…
by Superduperboltman on Feb 8, 2010 7:37 AM PST reply actions
Ummm
Dombrowski is a starting RT, Tolbert is a starting FB and you can’t yet rate the Byrd/Hughes picks. I think you’re jumping the gun a bit. Also….
Keep in mind that you typically need three years to evaluate a draft. By the third year, a player can be accurately evaluated as to their NFL potential. For some players it comes earlier, but typically we need to give a player three years.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
The 2008 draft
also acquired Chris Chambers for us, which was huge for that 2007 team that played in the AFC Championship. But, from a pure picking perspective, it is looking really ugly and based on my opinions, it does not have a lot of upside. I’m not sure how I feel about using UDFA players to evaluate a draft. You can’t totally discount the scouting involved, but there is more to the actual draft than just scouting. Also, there is more to getting production out of a UDFA (i.e coaching, opportunities from injuries) than just signing the right ones. So, basically the upside for the 2008 draft itself is tied up in Cason since Hester is never going to be more than a quality special teamer. But, like I said, from a “using your draft picks perspective” the Chambers trade is a win for that draft in my book even if it has no more upside to it.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
UDFAs
It’s all part of the glorious hopeful chaos of those two (soon to be three) days in April. I’m counting ’em.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not saying not to count them
I’m more saying that I’m not sure they should be used to evaluate A.J. Smith’s ability to draft. Operating the draft and signing/developing UDFAs strike me as two different skill sets.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 8, 2010 10:58 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Another way to put it
Is that if you were to put into a more specific description what this chart describes, to me it would be “First year player acquisition and development”
If you were to evaluate an ability to draft it would be different, since the process is more important than the results and you’d have to evaluate trades and their value in addition to just the talent being acquired. And you’d want to compare what talent was acquired vs what could have been acquired. I would probably include the supplemental draft as part of the process as well.
And if you were to evaluate player development it would be different. Where you’d need to understand player upsides and the approximate likelihood that a player would develop and compare that with actual results. This is the process where the UDFA signings would shine for A.J. Smith.
I’m not saying that there’s any wrong with what’s been put up here. I’m just giving some thoughts. What you’ve got here is fun, conversation stimulating and quite useful.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
The 2009 draft
English can make the 2009 draft great if he pans out. But, assuming that Vazquez is our starting RG for years to come, Ellison was already a big contributor on defense for a team that when 13-3 (or 13-4 if you prefer) and it seems pretty obvious to me that Spillman is a quality special teamer then from my point of view the 2009 draft did pretty well for itself. English and Martin both give it the upside to make it great, but it’s already a win for the organization. All you need from that draft is Vazquez to be the RG for the next ~10 years, Ellison to contribute on defense for the next couple and Martin or English to be a starter at some point and it’s on par with at least the 2002 draft and definitely on par with the 2003 draft (if you don’t count UDFAs).
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 8, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
agree
I think 2009 is already looking like a decent draft. Getting two rookie starters on a playoff caliber team is pretty good work. And if English and/or Martin pan out it could be great. If that happens, I could see the 2009 draft producing two pro bowlers or so.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Nitpicking
The Chargers have averaged 7.7 picks per draft from 2003-2009, which is above the average which would be roughly 7.
The mean is 8. There are 7 rounds, and 32 compensatory picks. The mean for teams that never pick in the top 5 is probably more like 7.8, as leftover compensatory picks go to the lowest-ranking teams, as if they were part of an 8th round. So by that metric, we’re right where you’d expect us.
I think if you dig a bit deeper (don’t have stats to back it up), you’d see that, like many other teams that tend to draft well, we get more comp picks than other teams, and do more trade-ups than average. Your numbers suggest that if true, these cancel out.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 8, 2010 8:04 AM PST reply actions
i did not know there were exactly 32 compensatory picks!
but you are right. Factor in the occasional lost pick due to penalty (like the Pats and spygate) and the average is a bit less than 8.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
Pulling stuff out of context
A lot of this is pulling stuff out of context….first off you don’t just draft the player you want as GM. The salary cap and needs plays a huge part.
Imagine you are a stud GM and you draft 7 starters with your spectacular drafts….year 3 is done (21 starters and counting) and year 4 coming up….those next 7 get starter pay? and how do sign a of those studs to long term deals, what do you do with year 5?
Answer is sometimes you can take flyers on Waters/Cromartie; a swing for the fence. Sometimes you roll a few picks together for 1 player; because you like their intangibles. Weddle/Hester on a punt return, flying around to just lay a hit..the kind you never worry about in locker room or off the field, doing the small things all the time.
Cason/Davis drafted end of the first round, a look at other GM picks at the end of the first round…Some are good, Ozzie Newsome comes to mind, many are ho hum…to me this area has been AJ weak spot. Later AJ has been far and away the best at rounds 2 thru closing and UDFA’s…So for me, I think AJ needs to be more productive in the late 1rst and early 2nd…
there definately is something to AJ's transition
from stocking an empty cupboard (2003, 2004, maybe 2005) and then fine tuning a strong squad since them. However, stocking a team through the draft is the lifeblood of a franchise. AJ talks about wanting to keep the “window of opportunity” for the franchise open indefinately. To do that he has to do better than he did in 2007. We can’t waste picks like we did on Buster. Whatever you think Buster’s upside may or may not be, it is undeniable (in hindsight) that we did not need to make that pick. Unlike us who get to pass judgement later on, AJ gets paid to discern this sort of thing in advance. But, that has been one bad draft (and two unknowns) out of 7, so overall he has done a great job.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
Major point missing
This is a solid post very informative but we cant ignore the fact that Buddy Nix was doing the scouting for most of those years when the picks were good and all the years when we were all scratching our heads AJ had Chased buddy off along with Schottenheimer
here's the facts
“San Diego Chargers
Nix left Buffalo with John Butler and A. J. Smith after the 2000 season. He was initially the Director of Pro Player Personnel (2000-2001), but after Butler died, Smith was promoted to General Manager, and Nix to Assistant General Manager.
Nix’s job with the Chargers was to oversee both pro and college scouting and to be one of the main decision makers in each NFL Draft. Nix was a major reason the Chargers turned around from a losing football team to a rebuilt, winning team. In 2004, three players Nix drafted were selected to the 2005 Pro Bowl. In 2005, six players Nix drafted were selected to the 2006 Pro Bowl. In 2006, eleven players Nix drafted were selected to the 2007 Pro Bowl. In 2007, eight players Nix drafted were selected to the 2008 Pro Bowl.
Nix is considered by some[citation needed] to be one of the top five talent evaluators in the NFL. The Chargers won four out of the last five AFC West titles with Nix as Assistant GM and Director of Player Personnel, in charge of college scouting and instrumental to the decision making process of their NFL drafts."
source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddy_Nix
So lets stop tooting that AJ horn because he is slowly killing our Team
Nix was with us through the 2008 draft
so you can lay the 2007 and 2008 stinkers in his lap as well if you want.
Also, his reasons for departure are not clearly known. The other side of the coin is that he may have “retired” because he knew he was never going to be GM here (which he now is with Buffalo)
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That's correct.
He wanted to get a chance to run the show himself. Wasn’t going to happen in San Diego.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Feb 8, 2010 1:53 PM PST up reply actions
the "retirement"
was what got the rumor mill going. Why not just look for a GM job in the off-season like every other assistant GM in the world? Why not just keep the plumb assistant-GM job in SD until something better came along? Who knows, maybe he was burned out and legitimately needed a break, or maybe AJ was standing in the way of him leaving somehow. beats me
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 2:42 PM PST up reply actions
Those weren't stinkers. Unless your standard is '04, '05 or '09.
A lot of teams would be happy to draft such stinkers as Legedu Naanee, Eric Weddle and Brandon Siler.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 8, 2010 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
They're dying!
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Feb 8, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
You wrote that, didn't you?
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Feb 8, 2010 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
[citation needed]
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
This is excellent
Such a pretty table, too.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
WORSE DRAFT MOVE
the worse thing AJ did was trading down for Sammy Davis and Terrence Kiel, chargers totally passed up on Troy Polamalu…..
2003 draft
That was a really weird draft. And not just because it was upside down with all the UDFAs that became pro bowlers and the early picks that busted. AJ Smith had officially taken the GM job about 4 days earlier, 11 days after his close friend and charger GM John Butler died from cancer. So we’ve got some grief issues, probably some organization that was left undone (due to the uncertainty of Butler’s status, the end came quick for him), and his 1st draft as the head honcho.
But you’re right Davis sucked and Kiel was decent for a while and then got into trouble with the law. Not that I really want to add to the sense of missed opportunities but Nnamdi Asomugha was drafted the pick right after Sammy Davis…
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
It's been established that AJ was basically executing Butler's plan.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Feb 8, 2010 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
I remember hearing that AJ leaned heavily
on Butlers plan and the advice of Marty. IIRC Marty was against taking Polamalo and that was a source of some of the contention between the two. I don’t remember where I heard/read that so who knows.
Polamalu
Was a big source of contention that year. Kind of like Taylor Mays this year. He was fast and a ball hawk, but played on a great defense (so the theory goes that his picks were because of the other guys) and was a little small (he’s much bigger now). Sometimes its really hard to measure football IQ/instincts just based on film of collegiate games.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
2003 draft could be called a complete wash save for Mike Scifres.
Davis? Pfft.
Kiel? Jailbird flew the coop and eventually died.
Van Buren? The offensive line was a shambles back then, and CVB was part of the problem. He has subsequently retired due to knee injuries.
Wilhelm? Slow white linebacker who didn’t tackle with authority and couldn’t save himself through being a “leader”.
Scifres? Boss. Heir to the throne of Lechler as the best punter in the AFC, if not the NFL.
Milligan? Okay, now we’re getting into value picks, but he was an unspectacular safety and excellent special teamer.
Pinnock? Mediocre contributor for a few years.
The quality UDFA’s were fantastic in retrospect, but not one of those players was DRAFTED. Additionally, Dielman was originally brought in, remember, as a defensive lineman. The 2003 draft pretty much laid a huge, huge egg.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 9, 2010 7:56 PM PST up reply actions
Wilhelm and Pinnock were both good special teamers as well.
Kiel was a pretty solid SS until the last year he was year. Jailbird or no jailbird.
Davis and Van Buren were junk though.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 10, 2010 12:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
What does including Wilhelm’s being white add?
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Feb 10, 2010 5:05 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely nothing.
But I couldn’t think of another good adjective.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 10, 2010 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
"less than black"
??
Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.
by Mad_Villain on Feb 10, 2010 11:42 PM PST up reply actions
Uh, no.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 11, 2010 8:34 AM PST up reply actions
I love that gif.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Feb 12, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
The trade down would have looked a lot better
Had they chosen Nnamdi Asomugha or Rashean Mathis instead of Sammy Davis as well. They also could have drafted Osi Umenyiora or Anquan Boldin instead of Florence and picked up Asante Samuel in the 3rd round instead of VanBuren.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
drafting sure is easy
when we can do it 7 years later. :-)
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 8, 2010 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
do we have player positions for these guys?
some of these players i don’t even know. it would be nice to see what kind of positions AJ is drafting.
good article though.
Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.
Well
We tried bad drafts for about a decade and that really didn’t work, so let’s give these good ones a chance for a while.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 9, 2010 1:22 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I'd type "+1" just to annoy Wonko
But I’d have to type +3, ’cause that was vorpal.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 9, 2010 7:39 AM PST up reply actions
Good
write up! Nice charting by the way. I always feel informed after reading one of your posts.
was it really AJ?
Just have a look at the first picks in last 3 years: Buster Davis was a disaster, he did nothing. Antoine Cason and Larry English did nothing spectacular or significant even. They were below average first picks. This can have two reasons. 1) the great picks were Schottenheimer’s influence and AJ accepted the compliments, or, 2) AJ’s egomania reached to a level where he cannot make good decisions (look Al Davis).
Whichever the reason, AJ completed his useful years in Chargers and in last years he did more harm than use. Time to move on!
Your evaluations of the last three 1st round picks may be true
but we won’t really know for a few more years. Give Cason and English time to grow. Cason had a great first year and regressed a little last year. We knew English had a steep learning curve, give him another year.
Buster is a strange case. When healthy and active, he has looked great. He had some injury problems early on and then got caught at the end of what turned out to be a WR log jam. This resulted in him being inactive for almost every game this year. He had a decent rookie season (20 catches). In 2008 he was on and off the inactive list, had one game (Jets?) where he was lights out for about 1 quarter, then got injured and put on the IR (about week 5 or so). This year, because he couldn’t contribute on special teams like Osgood, Floyd, or Naanee and wasn’t ready to start, he spent every Sunday until week 17 inactive. I also am close to writing him off as a Bust, but he has shown just enough to keep me hopefull. And his situation (injuries, log jam, etc) give me just enough reason to rationalize away the fact he has spent less time in a Charger’s game jersey than some of us readers have.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 9, 2010 8:36 AM PST up reply actions
Uh...
Buster Davis is unproven, but he’s had three years on a historically-great WR squad competing with a dedicated special-teamer who couldn’t be deactivated. And he’s a WR, a position that normally takes 2-4 years to develop anyway.
Antoine Cason is a CB with 2 years of experience, behind two top-20 CBs. He’s not suited to the nickelback role, so he only sees the field if a starter comes out. And again, he’s a CB, not exactly a baby-wildebeest position like a guard or a RB.
English, ok, he had a good chance to impress us, and he left us kind of underwhelmed. Some LBs go in and are great right away, some take awhile, and some never get there.
The only sensible grade for AJ’s first rounders is “incomplete.”
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 9, 2010 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Great comment.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
I'm torn on the "incomplete" thing
My one issue with it is that this team is in a “win now” mode. Using first round picks on guys that don’t help us accomplish that goal within 1-3 years does seem like it should be penalized in some manner. However, the 2007 and 2009 drafts have had multiple guys that have helped us win, its just that Davis is definitely not one of them and English didn’t help as much guys who were drafted later than he was.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
AJ has always been clear
that he wants to keep the organization’s “window of opportunity” open indefinitely. So I take that to mean that he is always thinking about how this team is going to look 3-5 years from now, in addition to thinking about what needs to be done for next year.
Look at the Colts, they’ve been competitive for a long time. They have replaced pieces all over their offense and defense and have been consistently good for 10 years or so. You have to draft for the future. But like you said, you have to get guys who are going to contribute right off the bat, in addition to drafting some high upside projects.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 9, 2010 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
That sounds nice
but the key is finding these “high upside projects.” I don’t consider Cason, English or Davis to be those. If anything, all three were low risk, low upside guys. Which just makes it worse, doesn’t it? At least with picks like Cromartie and Castillo you were getting high risk, high upside with the late round picks. Maybe he should go back to that.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
AJ prefers to gamble in the mid-late rounds.
Legedu Naanee, Scott Chandler, Vaughn Martin, Kevin Ellison. ‘08 wasn’t great (ok, it mostly sucked), ‘cause AJ had a limited draft to begin with and gave away the farm to get Hester. But it’s just too soon to say that his safer first-round picks in the last few years haven’t panned out, because of the order the positions were filled in. And in the case of Davis, because of the depth of the position.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 10, 2010 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
Everyone gambles in those rounds. That's what they are about.
A.J. used to do a better job with higher upside guys in the first round. Not so much gambling, but maybe just better talent evaluation. Castillo wasn’t much of a gamble if you knew what you were getting into (which they did), but he was risky because teams didn’t know what to make of his PED issue. If you did your homework on Cromartie and knew that you were developing a raw, but very athletic and ball hawking corner, then it wasn’t as risky as it looked, but it had high upside.
And even if his safer 1st round picks do pan out, they still don’t have the upside to be stars so you are still left with spending years developing players just so that they can be average starters instead of potential all pros. Maybe that was the best that we could do in those drafts, but it’s not a trend that anyone should like.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
then again
AJ’s ability to find pro bowl caliber players seems correspond to where he is picking in the first round Rivers (4), Merriman (12), and Cro (19) vs. Davis (30), Cason (27), and English (16). (and I’m still saying English is way to early to call either way).
It makes sense that as the Bolts get better, we are going to have less success in the draft (due solely to lower draft position)
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 10, 2010 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
If we put the succesful or unsuccessful grades aside for a second
I’m just trying to point out that either A.J. should be either trying to keep the “window of opportunity open indefinitely” or draft with the “win now” mode to compliment his current team. So either there should be an effort to get higher upside guys to be the new big contributors 3-5 years from now or the picks should be guys that compliment the current roster to give them a better shot to be one of the elite teams right now. Davis, Cason and English seem to fail in both regards. The jury may be out on whether English can become a solid starter, but he really doesn’t have elite OLB potential to begin with and he didn’t really contribute to the 2009 team’s wins in any meaningful way. Which means he fails on both fronts. Cason has an extra year under his belt and seems to project as a solid starting corner and a poor nickel on a team with top very good corners already, while at the same time not contributing meaningfully to the 2008 or 2009 teams. So he fails on both fronts. And then I really don’t have to say much about Davis, since he’s got 3 years under his belt and obviously is not a contributor.
That’s all I’m trying to say. I’m not really making a statement about success or failure or complete or incomplete or A, B, C, D or F. I’m just saying that from the two perspectives presented (extending window of opportunity vs. win more now), these picks don’t seem to fit either category.
It seems to me, the last 3 drafts have been attempts to use the first round to address needs at the cost of drafting the best player available (even in those lower picks I didn’t see many consider Davis, Cason or English as the BPA whereas picks like Manning, Merriman and Castillo all were and Cro was basically a wildcard that no one could really grade accurately due to injury so he’s an exception) and I’m not sure it’s working out very well.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
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