Prospects Update (ESPN-style)
I've got some bad news and I've got some good news. Bad news first. Two of the prospects that I got some people here excited about are shooting up the draft boards. Mel Kiper's new Big Board now has Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee) as the #14 overall prospect and Brandon Graham (DE/OLB, Michigan) as the #20 prospect. Scouts, Inc has Graham at #18 and Williams at #22. If NFL teams are seeing the same thing that Mel and Scouts, Inc are seeing (and they usually do) then we are not going to get a shot at either of those guys. It's also worth noting that the only RB in both top 25's is C.J. Spiller. Scouts, Inc has their top 32 posted and Jahvid Best makes it on that list at #30, but is carrying just a borderline 1st round grade. It wasn't too long ago that they had Jonathan Dwyer in that territory, but it looks like they are seeing him as a 2nd round talent now. So, the positive spin is that the Chargers will probably get a shot at any non-Spiller RB, but it looks like the NFL prospect gurus are thinking less and less of them as time goes on and that means that picking a RB in the first round may be going for need over value. That sucks.
The good news? Well this only counts as good news if you're an San Diego State fan that cares about seeing Aztecs drafted high. Mel Kiper came out with the 2011 draft's top positional prospects list and Vincent Brown cracked the WR list at #4.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.
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nice post
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule reseident broncos fan for ap lol denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos fan for stanpleid bule
I really like Best in this offense.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
elaborate?
Because here’s my thinking… if LT is gone (as he keeps saying he will) then I think we’ll end up filling the RB position by committee.
I also think that if we let LT go, we make every possible attempt to bring Sproles back at a reasonable price. I think he’ll take it because he understands that he won’t be an LT-like, every-down back on any team in the league. Since so few teams use a full-time, workhorse back these days, I think he knows that he’ll be part of a committee no matter where he goes. He can still be part of that committee in San Diego and have more snaps than he did last year if that makes him happy.
That makes me more excited by an Anthony Dixon type big back. It seems to me that a move-the-chains bruiser would complement Sproles better, and he would only have to be a two-down back (which would mask any deficiencies as a receiver/pass blocker).
Sproles will not be back.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 4, 2010 9:34 PM PST up reply actions
That’s the first part of it. It’s very unlike Sproles will be back.
I don’t like Best as an every-down back, but I do like him as part of a committee. This is not an offense that needs a bruising RB, and it’s actually one that is usually hindered by one. Probably the bruiser that’s most suited for the offense is Tolbert, because he has speed and is an excellent receiver.
This team is not built for a bruising RB. They’re never going to be a downhill/pound-the-rock type of football team. Guys like Best, Michael Bennett and Sproles are what they need. These guys are essentially receivers out of the backfield that can also run through an open hole and take advantage of the opportunity for a big play.
So when I say I like Best, I mean I would be happy with a RB committee that prominently included him.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
why won't sproles be back?
Is it because the FO doesn’t like him?
Or because we think he is going to get a bigger payday somewhere else? If it’s a money thing, I wonder if he is going to get a big payday somewhere else, perhaps he does sign a long term deal here. I agree that there is no way he gets franchised or RFA tendered here, but maybe a long term deal?
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 5, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
He wants to try to be an every down back.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Feb 5, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
If someone wants him as an everydown back, then my question is moot
because someone will give him a bigger payday. But is anyone going to want him as an everydown back? Is anyone even going to promise him that chance? I think most teams are going to want him to serve almost the same role he does here, scatback-third down back-special teams returner. If I’m right, then why wouldn’t he stay here, assuming the money is more or less the same?
probably too many unknowns at this point to write anything in stone, but I don’t believe it is a forgone conclusion that someone wants Sproles as an everydown back.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 5, 2010 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
I guess I just made the assumption that Sproles would be back because it’s hard for me to imagine us losing the top two returners at any position. If we lose LT, I could see us signing Sproles to a long-term deal.
I don’t think a bruiser back would be counterproductive to this offense though.. with a committee, I see a big, two-down back combined with a Sproles-type third down specialist.
What makes you think that our offense would be hindered by a bruising RB? I think that Norv’s offenses are (and have always been) based on the concept of setting up the pass with the threat of the run. We throw deep from the I-formation and even if we don’t have a super productive running game, the threat of the run keeps the deep options alive.
I know the Colts and the Patriots do fine without having even a threat of a running game but I’d rather have something like the Saints this year. What took them from an average team to a Super Bowl contender was a strong defense and a power running game to pair with Drew Brees. Why can’t we have a Pierre Thomas/Mike Bell combo running the ball here?
Mike Bell/Pierre Thomas
Are both not bruising backs. At least not like Dixon or some of the other bigs in this draft. Bell and Thomas are both under 225 lbs. Bell’s style may be bruising, but that is more a one-way ticket to IR than it is a productive way to go about things for an average sized back.
I too would prefer a Saints-style running game, but getting a guy like Dixon is not the way to do it. That being said, I think any productive runner will help the Chargers, especially one that is a pretty good receiver like Dixon is.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
damn.
i kinda like graham if he fell to us.
Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.
Drafting an OLB when we already have 3 potential starters and plenty of depth at the position is just goofy. If you’re worried about depth after Merriman leaves, take a project in the later rounds.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
The depth at OLB is not quality depth
From what I see the only quality pass rusher in the group is Shaun Phillips, the rest are replaceable. If an OLB is the best available and represents an upgrade, then it’s not a path that should be ignored.
On the other hand, A.J. may be complacent like you and want to assume that the guys he’s brought in can get the job done and will pass up an opportunity to upgrade the pass rush. I think there are certain circumstances where that would be a mistake and having a guy like Graham available to us when we pick would be a nice option (option is the key word there).
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
If I can get inside AJ's head
I think he only will spend a first round pick on a couple positions: QB, CB, and OLB. I think he sees those as the “impact” positions on the team and wouldn’t want to spend the pick or money on any other position. So, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see and OLB (or even a CB) drafted with our #1 pick.
Perhaps that rule is a little too restrictive, but I’d bet that is his philosophy. Of course, this year our 1st round pick is pretty much a 2nd round pick so maybe it doesn’t follow that rule.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 5, 2010 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure about his RB philosophy though
Because LT’s been here the whole time AJ has been at the helm. So while AJ’s draft history so far shows him picking up run-of-the-mill RBs later in the draft or as UDFAs (think Gartrell, Marcus Thomas, Curtis Brinkley, Eldra Buckley), that could just be because we’ve always had a clear #1.
So RB is a big question mark that we can’t predict based on AJ’s history.
I don't think that's true at all
First, there is cowbell’s point about LT preventing the use of a 1st round pick on a RB. Second, he has also drafted a WR (Buster Davis) and a DE (Luis Castillo) with his 1st round picks. I’m pretty sure that his past 1st round picks have been a case of circumstance rather than philosophy. I could be wrong.
To go even further to explain circumstance, I think that the CB picks have been mostly out of need. Until Cro established himself as the starter there hadn’t been anyone who could stand to be replaced. I think it just became a default position to draft for. And when Cason was drafted, it was for depth since there was basically no one behind Cro and Jammer at the time and our nickelback (Weddle) was moving to starting safety. I think you are somewhat right on OLB in that A.J. feels that its so important that he’ll draft a top talent a year early rather than a year late as he did with Merriman (to replace Foley/Leber) and English (to replace Merriman).
If I were to come to some kind of middle ground it would be to say that A.J. values the OLB and CB to the point where he’s not afraid to pull the trigger on them in the first round even if it’s not his highest need, but I still think that he’s willing to draft almost any position in the first round (I say almost because I wonder if he would ever draft a RT or OG in the first round and obviously K, FB and P are extremely unlikely).
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Nickelback is essentially a starting position in today's league
I don’t remember if that was exactly his quote but I feel like AJ’s been quoted saying something along those lines. That would explain drafting Cason when we already had Cro and Jammer.
If we go by the idea of nickelback as the 12th starter on defense, then CB might come up as a position of interest for this offseason. Jammer’s 30 now and Cro may be driving himself out of town (at least many of the fans think so). Behind them we only really have Cason with limited experience and Brandon Hughes coming off IR.
Cason would become the starting CB if Cro were traded
And presumably Gergory could stay at nickelback. That’s not to say that they won’t draft a CB in the first or second round if a good one is available, but it’s unlikely to be a priority until later rounds.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
When Cason was removed from the nickel back role this year
I thought there was some issues the coaching staff had with him other than his talent. Did I read to much into his demotion? He was pretty good at the nickel back job in 2008 so I find it a little hard to believe that he just wasn’t suited for that role. Perhaps Gregory really stepped up his game or maybe the position did change a bit with Rivera putting his stamp on the defense. But I am a little wary of handing a starting CB job to Cason.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 5, 2010 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
My understanding
Is that his skills are just not suited to be a nickelback, much like Cromartie’s skills aren’t suited for the nickback role. On top of that, Gregory was pushing Cason for the spot and there may have been some issues with Cason’s work ethic at learning the new position. A normal cornerback role for Cason would fit his skill set much better. That being said, I would be wary of him starting as well. I prefer Cromartie, but that’s not a very popular opinion right now. Cason, to me, is a lot like English and Davis. He was a bit of a reach in the first round and may not really have the necessary talent to become a starter in this league. We’ll never know though until he tries and it’s not like there is some rookie that’ll be waiting at the #28 pick to become a good starting CB in 2010.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I think AJ will take any player in the first round that he feels will help the team the most
He does not strike me as the type that would not draft a certain position in a certain round.
That said I don’t think the Chargers will end up picking a RB in the first round of this years draft. While there are not a lot of top end potential super star running backs this years draft there is a wealth of talent of role player type backs that should go in the late second and early 3rd rounds. My guess is that the Chargers will spend their first round pick on either a CB or a DT and go after a downhill runner (Dwyer, Gerhart, Dixon ect…) with their 2nd or third round picks.
Does Sproles franchise tag nullify his restricted FA status? Can the Chargers offer him a tender?
The Sproles thing has come up like 15 times already
As far as everyone here can figure, his RFA tender would be equal to what he would get from the franchise tag. So its kind of pointless to remove the franchise tag and offer him an RFA tender. I guess it would free up another franchise tag, but that’s it.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
are you serious?
you think english, harris, holt is depth? i don’t think so.
merriman may be gone after 1 year and he’s yet to perform.
english is teetering on bust for a 1st rounder. (maybe a solid back up at best).
if anything we have 1 good OLB (phillips);
if graham fell to us. and he has the ability to be better than english. why wouldn’t AJ take him.
Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.
Harris is likely not going to be resigned anyways, so moot point.
I agree completely on English. If he’s expected to be The Guy in the future he needs to show us glimpses of talent right now.
I wouldn’t say Merriman “has yet to perform”— but obviously he’s not been doing what we know he’s capable of (’06 and ’07 form).
Holt might surprise some people in the next few years. If given a chance and some polish in camp he could turn out to be a pretty good OLB.
I would love to see either Graham or Lang in the first at this point. Spiller, Suh, and McCoy won’t possibly fall to us, and everyone else on our board would be either a slight reach— or a BIG reach.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 6, 2010 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
it's not a moot point.
my point is that we don’t have quality OLBs as depth notwithstanding Harris not resigning.
English was supposed to be “that back” to step in after merriman leaves. he will and possibly may be that starter. do i see our pass rush improving once that happens? No.
So once that happens, it’s not bad idea to pick up an OLB to A) push english as a starter or B) if he can’t, be a back up.
phillips is fine where he is. but i don’t think he has the strength to replace merriman on the strongside.
Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.
Where would we draft this hypothetical OLB?
High on the board, like 1st or 2nd? That makes two guys in two years who are expected to work out.
Later rounds? So how is he going to push English? Apart from short arms and mediocre technique, he’s a fairly good linebacker. If we grab a guy who is backup-caliber, that leaves us with too many Indians, not enough chiefs.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 6, 2010 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
well.
if there aren’t any NT available. if graham happens to fall to us, we take him. so 1st round. if not, then any BPA.
apart from short arms and mediocre technique? that’s exactly what’s wrong. OLB need long arms and great technique. remember. the pass rush (i.e. pressure on the QB) comes from the OLB (more specifically, Merriman’s spot). something i didn’t see last season was a great pass rush. need to pick one up now, and there’s a better probability that we’ll score big on a replacement for Merriman (possible exception – english —> but we’ll see what he’s about w/in the next year.
p.s. mark loretta is the sh*t.
Gary Potter: Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. It's like a carousel. You put the quarter in, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. Circular, circle. Feel it. Go with the flow.
Happy Gilmore: Psycho.
By "apart from short arms and mediocre technique"
I was pointing out everything that gave him a high draft grade when we picked him up…
Excellent motor
Great speed outside
Good strength (fails to utilize it)
Strong tackler
Besides which, technique will be coming along as he gets experience.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 6, 2010 7:54 PM PST up reply actions
remind me why we think Larry English has short arms again
Merriman = 32 7/8
English = 32 1/2
does that 3/8 make a difference???
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 6, 2010 8:09 PM PST up reply actions
Brandon Graham 30 1/2
Anyone who thinks English’s arms are too short should forget about Graham.
Source – Senior Bowl measurements
One other SDSU player that Should be looked at as a late round pick and/or an UDFA
is Demarco Sampson. Sampson had kind of a slow start to career at SDSU and was hampered by injuries (he was just granted his 6th year of eligibility) his first couple of seasons on the Mesa but after Brown went down this year Sampson stepped up in a big way (he had 8 TD’s in 4 games). With Brown coming back next season Sampson will probably fly under most teams radars and would be a great steal for the bolts.






















