Combining Prospects: Previewing Speed Scores

by Wonko on Feb 3, 2010 1:42 AM PST in NFL Draft

Recently, Draft Countdown put out a list of prospects they say were invited to the combine. The list may be incomplete since I can't find an official listing anywhere, but my number crunching brain wanted to get to work on previewing the RBs. One of the famous events at the combine is the 40 yard dash. Love it or hate it, a statistical study was done that found that a formula using 40 time and weight for running backs can correlate to future success in the NFL. After the jump you'll find a listing of all the RBs invited to the combine, their projected weight and 40 time using NFL Draft Scout, the projected speed score based on those numbers and then the 40 times needed for those players get a 100 Speed Score (okay), 110 Speed Score (good) or 120 Speed Score (great) based on their projected weight.

One thing that will jump out at you is that most of these 40 times are favorable to the prospects. It is unlikely that most of these players will run as fast as their projected 40 times. There will be a handful though that surpass expectations though, but not nearly as many. Another thing that jumps out is that 4 running backs' projected Speed Scores are quite good since they are big backs that are projected to do quite well in the 40. These 4 backs are already decent to good prospects so if those projected 40 times hold up it could bode well for their NFL careers.

Prospect	College	Proj. Wt.	Proj. 40	Proj. Speed Score	100 SS 40	110 SS 40	120 SS 40
Matt Asiata	Utah	230	4.65	98	4.63	4.52	4.42
Joique Bell	Wayne State	223	4.54	105	4.60	4.49	4.39
Jahvid Best	California	195	4.42	102	4.44	4.34	4.25
LeGarrette Blount	Oregon	245	4.58	111	4.70	4.59	4.50
Chris Brown	Oklahoma	202	4.54	95	4.48	4.38	4.28
Andre Dixon	Connecticut	200	4.59	90	4.47	4.37	4.27
Anthony Dixon	Mississippi State	245	4.59	110	4.70	4.59	4.50
Jonathan Dwyer	Georgia Tech	235	4.48	117	4.66	4.55	4.45
Toby Gerhart	Stanford	235	4.55	110	4.66	4.55	4.45
Montario Hardesty	Tennessee	215	4.55	100	4.55	4.45	4.35
Javarris James	Miami (FL)	208	4.58	95	4.52	4.41	4.31
Stafon Johnson	Southern Cal	214	4.54	101	4.55	4.44	4.35
Darius Marshall	Marshall	190	4.49	93	4.42	4.31	4.22
Ryan Mathews	Fresno State	220	4.49	108	4.58	4.47	4.38
Dexter McCluster	Ole Miss	165	4.42	86	4.26	4.16	4.07
Joe McKnight	Southern Cal	190	4.42	100	4.42	4.31	4.22
Shawnbrey McNeal	Southern Methodist	190	4.47	95	4.42	4.31	4.22
Lonyae Miller	Fresno State	220	4.52	105	4.58	4.47	4.38
Brandon Minor	Michigan	218	4.59	97	4.57	4.46	4.37
Pat Paschall	North Dakota State	206	4.54	97	4.51	4.40	4.30
Charles Scott	Louisiana State	239	4.6	107	4.68	4.57	4.47
C.J. Spiller	Clemson	195	4.37	107	4.44	4.34	4.25
James Starks	Buffalo	218	4.54	103	4.57	4.46	4.37
Ben Tate	Auburn	214	4.5	104	4.55	4.44	4.35
Keith Toston	Oklahoma State	214	4.57	98	4.55	4.44	4.35
Keiland Williams	Louisiana State	221	4.56	102	4.59	4.48	4.38

RB Speed Scores are generated, and researched, by Football Outsiders.

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Comments

McCluster is screwed

So is Joe McKnight, who I’m surprised isn’t being talked about more.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Feb 3, 2010 3:14 AM PST reply actions

It kind of is

It’s part of why McCluster isn’t talked about as a feature back and is considered more of X factor who can return kicks, line up at WR and play some wild cat qb in addition to running the ball a little.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Feb 3, 2010 9:46 AM PST up reply actions

McKnight will be a non-factor in the NFL anyways.

McCluster could be a very good role player though.

LaMichael James + Kenjon Barner + Lache Seastrunk + Dontae Williams + Josh Huff + Keanon Lowe + Remene Alston +...

by CaDuck on Feb 3, 2010 8:59 PM PST up reply actions

How does the current collection of charger RBs compare?

Just wondering. If we apply this same formula, to LDT, Sproles and company. How much would a rookie really upgrade what we have?

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Feb 3, 2010 10:00 AM PST reply actions

It doesn't really work like that

Or, at least, no one has really tried it. Mainly because we don’t know the 40 times for any of the current NFL players. You can go back and look at what they did at the combine, but does that really give you any insight into a 30+ year old LT?

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Feb 3, 2010 10:07 AM PST up reply actions

No it doesn’t.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Feb 3, 2010 12:32 PM PST up reply actions

Anyone know what was Chris Johnson's predicted speed score...

vs. his actual?

by BFDC on Feb 3, 2010 4:38 PM PST reply actions

His actual was 121.9

His 40 time was 4.24. According to NFLDraftScout they had his 40 time range as 4.20-4.35. A 4.35 would have earned a speed score if 110. A 4.20 would have been a ridiculous 127. I don’t know a real projected 40 time since any site that would post 40 times would change them after the combine to reflect his actual 40 time.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Feb 4, 2010 10:01 AM PST up reply actions

So they're saying LGB and Dwyer move the best for their size?

And that Spiller is projected to be the fastest back overall in the draft…

Look on the bright side, gang! If the premium backs perform poorly at the Combine, they’re more likely to slip to us during the draft!

Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.

by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 3, 2010 7:12 PM PST reply actions

I'm interested to see what Dwyer does

That 4.48 projected time looks a little ridiculous to me.

As for Spiller, it would be embarrassing for him not to be the fastest or at least in the top 3 since he was a college sprinter and should be experienced with this. The one catch is that he might put on weight to show that he’ll play a little bigger since he’s not running track anymore.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Feb 4, 2010 10:08 AM PST up reply actions

It's worth mentioning

That last year was the first year the combine was held at Lucas Oil instead of the RCA dome and nobody topped a 111 in speed score, whereas in previous years it had happened more often with usually at least one back breaking 120. There could be something to do that.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Feb 4, 2010 10:09 AM PST reply actions