The 2009 San Diego Chargers Season Was a Success
This is an editorial I've been thinking about for a while. It comes in the aftermath of listening to countless Charger fans, on the radio, on the internet, taking the 2009 season for granted. Because of the disappointing playoff loss to the Jets, fans are looking back at 2009 as if it never happened, viewing it only through the lens of how it ended.
This is a terrible way to remember the year. In 2009, the San Diego Chargers accomplished a great deal. Despite losing in the second round of the post-season, the Chargers overcame long odds to win as many games as they did. The adversity and hardship they overcame should be applauded, not derided. Individual members of the team also put up career-best, even historic performances.
Fans who think the season was a failure simply because the Chargers failed to win a Super Bowl have expectations that are far, far too high. Follow the jump, and I'll explain why the season should be considered a success, and why some are guilty of having expectations that are far in excess of reality.
Let's look at some stats for a moment. Feel free to skip ahead if you aren't a stat junky, but stick around and you'll see some interesting stuff. First, the obvious--the Chargers had a GREAT passing offense in 2009. A historically good one, in fact. They ranked first in FO's DVOA among all passing offenses with 62.2%. Since 1993, the only passing offenses that were better were the 2004 Colts (when Manning broke a bunch of records) and 2007 Patriots (when Brady broke Manning's records). That's really good. Unfortunately, that historically great passing offense was paired up with the worst (WORST!) running game in football. DVOA rated it as producing plays that were, on average, 11.2% worse than league average. That's really bad. The result was an offense that, while very good, and the best down the stretch, wasn't historically great by any means.
The best thing that could be said about the 2009 Chargers was that their passing game was great. The rushing offense stank. The defense was, at its best, average. Overall, DVOA ranked it as #23 in the NFL, actually worse than it was in 2008. It was a little better down the stretch, but not noticeably so. The special teams unit last year was dead average in DVOA--#16 overall, and worse in weighted DVOA.
People like to talk about the Chargers' "talent". They've been repeatedly referred to as "the most talented team in the league" in the media. It's been repeated so much that people start to believe it, and view everything the team does through that lens. I hate this. I hate it because it isn't true. The fact is that the Chargers are not some historically talented juggernaut of a team. In truth, the Chargers have highly skilled players at a few key positions--quarterback, tight end, and wide receiver. Outside of that, the team is average, and in some areas below average.
Conclusion? On paper, the 2009 Chargers just weren't that good. As I've stated, their passing offense was great, and everything else was average or worse. If you look at Pythagorean Wins (a projection calculated using points for and against) the Chargers were an 11 win team. If you use FO's Expected Wins formula based on a number of different factors, they were a 10 win team.
So why have I spent all this time in an effort to prove that the Chargers weren't as good as we all wanted to believe they were? Because despite all of that, despite an average-to-bad defense and a running game that was the worst in football, the Chargers STILL MANAGED TO WIN 13 GAMES. I don't think people realize just how difficult it is to win games in the NFL. This isn't baseball where even the worst teams (usually) manage to win over a third of their games. Teams in football routinely finished with one, two, or three wins total. We just had a team go winless in 2008. That the Chargers were able to post a 13-3 record despite being deficient in key areas is nothing short of amazing.
Let's go beyond stats. The Chargers suffered massive injuries at vital positions in 2009. They lost Jamal Williams, the cornerstone of the defense, for the entire year in the FIRST GAME OF THE SEASON. Sam put up a fanpost immediately after saying, "JAMAL WILLIAMS DONE FOR YEAR. SEASON OFFICIALLY OVER." One of my friends texted me during the Week 2 game vs. Baltimore and said, "Without Jamal, 6-10 at best." If you asked any Chargers fan before 2009 what would happen should the team ever lose Williams for the season, and they'd have uniformly told you that season would be a lost cause.
But it didn't stop there. Not only did they lose Williams, they lost his primary backup, Ryon Bingham, before the season even started. While Ryon wasn't considered to have the talent to match Jamal, he was still an experienced, valuable part of the defensive line and was expected to see significant playing time at both tackle and end. Moreover, the other projected started at defensive end across from Luis Castillo, Jacques Cesaire, missed all of training camp and pre-season as well as the first few games of the season. So the Chargers began the year with their 3rd string nose tackle and 3rd string defensive end. They had a rookie from Canada getting significant time at DE and an over-the-hill 4-3 tackle playing the nose. That had disaster written all over it.
And that's just on defense. On offense, the Chargers lost their starting center, and replaced him with a player who had never played a snap at center in the NFL before, and put a player who had been on the practice squad in 2008 next to him at guard.
Yes, I know. "Everyone has injuries, it's part of the game." But not everyone loses the centers of both lines and their backups. Those are huge blows. And the team somehow overcame. Credit the players, the training staff, the coaches for figuring out a way to get it done.
The Chargers overcame long odds to win as many games as they did. They persevered through crippling injuries and outperformed their numbers. Fans should be proud of the team for accomplishing what they did, regardless of what happened in the post-season.
The problem, though, is that a lot of fans have unrealistic expectations. They have become spoiled by a stretch of four division titles in a row, and five in six years. They've decided that the regular season "doesn't cut it anymore", and only playoff wins and championships will satisfy them. That just isn't fair.
The reason it isn't fair is because what happens in the playoffs is a giant crapshoot. The single-game elimination format offers way too small a sample size to reliably predict results. The consequence of this is that the better team doesn't always win. The fact that team A would beat team B eight or nine times out of ten doesn't matter if team B gets a couple lucky bounces and happens to pull off that one chance in ten.
To paraphrase another poster here, the NFL Champion isn't necessarily the best team. The Champion is the team that gets lucky in the crapshoot and goes on a 3-4 game win streak at the end of the season. It's unrealistic to EXPECT your team to do that.
Of course it's disappointing and devastating when the Chargers lose a playoff game in the manner that they did, and there's nothing wrong with feeling like that. But we've gotten to the point where many Chargers fans focus on that to the exclusion of all else. Stop it. It's not fair to the team, and it's not fair to yourselves.
No team deserves a championship, and no amount of talent "should" have won a Super Bowl. It's hard enough to win games in the regular season. Ask the Houston Texans, a team very similar to the Chargers in 2009. They had a great quarterback, great receiver, and great tight end matched up with a horrible rushing game and a mediocre defense. They played an easier schedule than the Chargers, and only managed to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs. Any Houston Texans fan would gladly trade their season for ours in a heartbeat.
Fans should be proud of what the Chargers accomplished this season, rather than grousing about not hitting 00 on the roulette wheel. They've become complacent, and spoiled. Winning division titles isn't impressive because the Chargers are "supposed to". Winning thirteen games isn't impressive anymore because the Chargers are "supposed to". In the NFL, nothing is supposed to happen. Winning your division and making the playoffs is the goal of the regular season, and accomplishing that should be celebrated, not dismissed as "expected". If we rewound the clock ten years to 2000, I'm sure many Charger fans would gladly take a 13-3 season and a playoff loss over what we were experiencing then. Too much winning has spoiled Charger fans, and we need to get over ourselves.
The Chargers were a good team in 2009. They overcame serious adversity and won eleven games in a row. That's a great accomplishment. We all would have liked to top it off with a Super Bowl victory, and it was disheartening to see the team lose. But that doesn't in any way take away from what the players and coaches accomplished in the regular season. Fans of the team need to stop having unrealistic expectations that no team can ever live up to.
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Comments
I tend to agree...
Over the last few years, I’ve come to realize that all you have the right to expect as a fan is (unless you root for the Yankees) that you have a chance to win a Championship. The expectation, however, also comes from knowing how bad our divisional opponents have been since 2006.
As with any other fan, however, what frustrates you is seeing a large number of missed opportunities, especially when your playoff exits have been largely self-inflicted – or cut short by major injuries to star players (January 2008). I would have an easier time losing in the postseason if I felt like my team played something like their best game, or if the quality of the opponent was clearly superior (as with Super Bowl 29).
"As a confirmed melancholic, I can testify that the best and maybe only antidote for melancholia is *action*. However, like most melancholics, I suffer also from sloth." - Edward Abbey.
by Jeff (sliderockmpc) on Feb 23, 2010 9:50 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
It's not about expectations; it's about a missed opportunity
I love this topic. It’s very salient for me, and one that I roll around in my head all of the time. And it’s probably because I was left to “discover” the NFL on my own, whereas I was born into following MLB, specifically, the New York Yankees. Being a fan of the Yankees is actually a mixed bag. But I’m sure most of you don’t care too much about that. What I do think I have though, is a pretty unique perspective about expectations and missed opportunities.
And my point is that I know what it’s like to truly have expectations of winning the championship, and have nothing else matter. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series, the season is a disappointment, period. It doesn’t matter how well the team does in the regular season. There have been too many championships in team history for anything else to be relevant.
But I didn’t feel that way about the Chargers, neither coming in to the season, nor when it ended abruptly. No, what made the season overall such a bitter pill to swallow was the missed opportunity. As Zach wrote, you simply cannot expect the Chargers to be competitive season after season after season. You have to think that it’s only a matter of time before this Chargers team is not as competitive, and the proverbial window of opportunity slams shut. To me, that’s where the disappointment lies. This season was yet another legitimate title opportunity blown, and we can’t believe that we’ll always have them.
Anyway, I love the topic of expectations and/or opportunities and how they relate to a fan’s enjoyment of the season. If I thought there was enough interest, I’d probably write up a post on it. But when I roll it around in my head, I can’t help but to think that it’s just me that analyzes things this way, probably because of the dichotomy of being a Yankee and Charger fan simultaneously…
by hablodepablo on Feb 24, 2010 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
hey
hablodepablo i am a yankees fan as well
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24
Very good points
Unfortunately, only the logical fans that agree with you would be willing to read this. It makes too much sense.
"When they come for me I'll be sitting at my desk, with a gun in my hand wearing a bullet-proof vest, singing 'My, my, my, how the time does fly when you know you're going to die by the end of the night.'" - Catch 22
I think you could reasonably remove “San Diego” from that sentence.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Feb 24, 2010 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
Good Post
The playoff loss was a bitter pill to swallow (so much so that I didn’t watch any more football, including the Super Bowl). I will say it was certainly a successful season, though.
All I really want as a fan is to be entertained, and to have a realistic hope that the Chargers can win the Super Bowl. They made the tournament. Once you get there, anything can happen. The Chargers did what they had to do amidst adversity, and they had a chance.
Thats all I ask.
it was a great season...
it just didn’t end the way any of us wanted it to
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
bringing another charger fan into the world for the 2010 season...i hope i get a linebacker
A lot of really good points
I understand that us Chargers fans are taking this season, and arguably a few of the last years, for granted. But after 40 years in the NFL you would assume we deserve to win atleast one Championship.. like cmon, the Cardinals made it to the Superbowl last year and had a legitimate shot to win. I know that you said that in many cases the playoffs are about “teams getting hot at the right time”, and i fully understand, but you’d think that the Chargers would get a few breaks here and there. And in response to your argument about the Houston Texans… they’ve only been in the league for what? 8 years?… our expectations ought to be a little bit higher, especially seeing as this is arguably the best we’ve ever been. Great post though man… and I know im just preaching to the choir here, but still I just had to get it out.
I appreciate the kind words.
I have a couple issues with what you say though.
I don’t think anyone deserves a championship. Do Chargers fans deserve one any more than Bills fans? Vikings fans? Lions fans? The former two have lost every Super Bowl they’ve played in. The Lions haven’t even gotten close in God knows how long.
My point about the Texans isn’t that their fans have been as long suffering as the Chargers. My point was that their team showed similar strengths and weaknesses as the Chargers did, they played a weaker schedule, and won 4 fewer games than us. The point was to show how great a job the Chargers did to win as many games as they did.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Feb 24, 2010 9:46 PM PST up reply actions
Great Post
I think that as we move deeper and deeper into the offseason those who are so angry about the loss to the Jets (which admittedly still stings) will start to realize the points made above.
It may not have been a championship year, but we are establishing ourselves as a dominant team in the league and our players are learning how to win and what it feels like to win. I don’t think we will have many more Eli issues where a player refuses to come in and play here seeing that the staff (see AJ) is dedicated to winning and a championship.
it was a great season, and voted norv COY
FO has a post-season awards, and they said vote for your COY, excluding post-season outcomes. So I did. Norv and his staff did a great job overcoming these holes. He made the RB situation worse by stubbornly sticking to the run at times, but 13-3 was amazing and deserves praise.
However, playoff outcomes matter too, just ask Marty. So am willing to see if Norv can build on last season with a stronger D and O-Line, but that playoff game we were out-coached. I don’t care if you have the Super Friends on D, if we force a team to punt as often as we did with the Jets in the first half, our offense should get more than 7 (or 10 if you count Kaeding’s miss) points. It should have been 17 or 24 at half, game over.
Yes PR probably makes us competitive for awhile, but we do not have endless windows to finish the playoffs without getting to the SB.
I believe baseball playoffs have a huge amount of luck, but feel like football playoffs are more execution and coaching. Maybe a few plays here or there can have a big influence, but which coach out-maneuvers the other will generally win. That fat piece of junk out-smarted Norv in our game, and I am hoping he learns from it.
Anytime a team wins their division
I would consider the season a success. I was very dissapointed with the play off loss to the Jets and I don’t think it was unrealistic to expect them to beat the Jets and advance ( I didn’t “expect” them to win the Super Bowl, but I did think they could beat the Jets).
While I do think luck plays a role in a team getting to the Super Bowl I think you give the teams that make it there to little credit by calling it a lucky giant crapshoot. Upsets do happen often, but far more often 1 and 2 seeds advance to the big game then 5 and 6 seeds. This year the Saints and Colts proved during the season that they were the best two teams and they advanced to the big game.
I have noticed in sports that players on, and fans of, teams that are unable to win the championship like to give luck, injuries and the officials a lot of the credit or blame for this fact. When I win at something I will gladly take the glory (however small it may be), and when I lose at something I will give the winner credit rather than calling it lucky or a fluke.
I think this years team was a little more talented then you gave them credit for, but I will admit that your facts and figures were impressive and did say otherwise.
Great post Zach I really enjoyed it.
To Me
The season was successful overall, but the playoffs were a huge failure, disappointment and blown opportunity. That just wasn’t the way the Chargers played all season, and was a game I still believe we should have won. I don’t consider the season a failure for not getting to the Superbowl, but it was a huge disappointment not getting to at least the AFC Championship.
Good Post
24 other teams wish they had such a bad year.
I may be old but I... oh d*mn, I forgot what I was going to say.
by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on Feb 25, 2010 8:10 PM PST reply actions
Great post, I'd rec it more if I could
The Jets loss was awful but we’d done very very well to get to that point – you even missed reminding us of the gloom after the Denver loss (and associated bemoaning of our boning [or is that deboning?]). The problem is that the wins bring more hope, and the hope can kill you in the end.
My signature says the rest, at least from my perspective.
We live in a world where all too often evil triumphs over good - http://spunc.com.au/members/hunter/product/9780980517965/




















