Jonathan Dwyer over Ryan Matthews, Jahvid Best, Blount
by bringbackbuddytrees on Feb 21, 2010 9:43 PM PST
45 comments
Well, once the Chargers have again failed to win the Superbowl comes my second favorite time of the year. Especially now that the NFL Network televises the Combine, nothing like a little 3 cone shuttle and wide receiver gauntlet to start dreaming of next year. As we watch LT discuss how he's gone and realize that the Chargers paid $13.2 million dollars last year (LT's $6.6 and Sproles $6.6) to be 31st in the league in rushing, it might be time to take a look at running back. While the line wasn't perfect, it wasn't as bad as LT's pride makes it sound like it was. As a fantasy enthusiast, I know rookie running backs, unlike other positions, tend to find immediate success in the NFL -see Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton. Since most early projections have the Chargers picking a running back again, I'd like to make the case for Jonathan Dwyer (just as I made the case for Beanie Wells and Shonn Greene last year.)
1. Jahvid Best - I am a die-hard Cal Fan and I love Best -he's explosive and won the state championship in the 100 meter dash but he's a little small and fragile - there was the infamous shot in Maryland two years ago where he got drilled and puked his neon green Gatorade, he missed games with a dislocated elbow, and then there was the horrific season-ending, helmet ejecting air landing in the endzone. He added weight last year without really impacting his speed but I don't see him as an every down back - he's a homerun threat like a Reggie Bush with less moves but taller. I don't think this is what the Bolts need - Shane Vereen was in ways better for Cal as the every down back because he would make tough yards and not lose them when nothing was there (which was part of LT's problem.)
2. Ryan Matthews - The Fresno State back I've only seen in youtube highlights but I can already see that he does not run with a forward lean and is upright. Unless you're as powerful and explosive as Adrian Peterson, I don't see him lasting in the NFL with being big and upright. That is a recipe to go down in a heap. He outruns inferior competition but I don't see clips of him making tough yards. I'm not sure he's even worth a second rounder.
3. Legarrett Blount - I love his right hand but he is merely Mike Tolbert. Without breakaway speed, he's going to look like Marshawn Lynch and slowly wear down with violent NFL hits. I love power backs but I honest think Tolbert could fill this role. Not sure about his hands.
Which brings me to:
Jonathan Dwyer - Georgia Tech. Tech ran the triple option, told everyone what they were going to do and did for the most part last year - mostly because of a talent like Dwyer. Comparing him to Matthews on Youtube clips, he looks bigger, more powerful, and a better everydown back. He has multiple clips of trucking defensive backs. Even more impressive are his multiple long runs where he is contacted 3-4 times and then runs away from the defense and last defenders. Unlike Matthews, he is outrunning the pursuit angles of safeties and corners from the likes of Miami and Florida State with guys who run sub 4.5 or better. Watching Rashard Mendenhall versus Darren McFadden clips two years ago, you could tell that D-Mac had NFL speed while Mendenhall was merely good enough to outrun guys with no pro future (while D-Mac hasn't really had opportunities to show his speed, it is clear that Mendenhall will never breakway in the NFL.) I see the same between Dwyer and Matthews. Best may be as fast or faster but I find him more one or two dimensional. The Chargers need to shed some of their soft offensive identity and having a bruiser in the vain of Michael Turner like Dwyer seems the best way. The knock might be his experience catching but its not because he can't catch. Watch the clip (around 3:20 of the link) of him lined up outside and then going up to make an over the shoulder catch on a fly route. That was a wide receiver play.
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CJ Spiller over any of those.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 21, 2010 10:08 PM PST reply actions
We don’t have a top 15 pick, though.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Feb 21, 2010 11:15 PM PST up reply actions
Trade up?
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 22, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
As much as I like Spiller
(And really, really like him). It’s very risky to trade up to get a RB. They be so fungible and so easily lost to injury that its putting a lot on the line to get one using multiple picks/players.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Not anymore of a risk than it was to trade up for Hester or Weddle
Perhaps Cromartie and a pick could get it done?
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 22, 2010 5:42 PM PST up reply actions
Those trades werent into the first round, so the risk just in that respect is less. Plus both Weddle and Hester figured to be solid STs and off the field guys at the very least.
Its bad enough if you miss on a pick and trade up in the first, imagine missing on a pick and having a guy thats not a STs player. Thats the worst fail there is.
Well, speaking of special teams...
CJ Spiller is about as sure of a thing on special teams as you could ask for. He was undoubtedly the best return man in the nation last season.
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
by CaDuck on Feb 22, 2010 6:43 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
A back like Michael Turner
Will never be a starter in Norv’s offense. It’s just not a a good fit.
I didn’t get the whole Mendenhall part. Mendenhall is a back who is having success in the NFL, but you are saying that something he can’t do as well is a reason not to pick a guy another guy?
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Yeah I was lost here
The Mendenhall DMac comparison I just dont get. Mendenhall was banged up his rookie year and had a solid 2nd season 4.6per carry and 1100 yards.
DMac looks like a upright target to me, if anything Id say that Mendenhall stands a much better chance at a productive pro career.
Triple Option
I actually see this as a detriment to Dwyer. Almost every highlight I see is one where they are running some triple option type play that the Chargers would never use. It makes it hard to project if its really him or if its the triple option plays that are keeping the defense off balance. A lot of the missed tackles I see are ones where guys are going the wrong direction because they were fooled or they are just using poor tackling skills.
I’m not necessarily saying that you’re wrong about Dwyer. I’m just telling you what I see.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I think Dwyer is the best RB in the draft...
But i don’t think AJ Smith would draft a RB in the 1st round. Especially if he wants to trade Cro for a RB… He can’t trust a rookie RB to make a difference and he knows how disposable they are… The chargers went 13-3 last season with one of the worst running games in the league and the Colts made it to the SB with an even crappier one. Our team is now built around the QB and everyone knows it, AJ won’t spend first round money on a RB because he knows the chances of drafting one that’s effective are low, he just doesn’t put much value in them. That being said, I think Ryan Mathews is the only one that has a chance of dropping to us in the 2nd and if he doesn’t Joique Bell from Wayne State is everything we’d need in a back only in the 4th round. Mathews is a lot better than you think and he’s AJ’s type; small school, gets a lot of reps, produces at that level and stays out of trouble….
A couple of your assumptions seem off
“He can’t trust a rookie RB to make a difference and he knows how disposable they are” – those statements contradict each other. Running backs are so disposable that you should be able to trust a rookie RB.
“AJ won’t spend first round money on a RB” – the amount of money committed to a late first round pick is marginal compared to other rounds. Look at Buster Davis’ or Antoine Cason’s current salaries. They are making peanuts compared to what most of the other players on the team make.
“Mathews is a lot better than you think and he’s AJ’s type; small school, gets a lot of reps, produces at that level and stays out of trouble” – Every criticism BringBackBuddyTrees said about Matthews is absolutely true, it just goes to show you that every back in the draft has flaws. I’m not sure that we can say he’s “AJ’s type” since I think the small school / big school thing is a farce since he hits up big schools every year and has sometimes picked up guys from smaller schools, which strikes me as more random than methodical. For example: 2009 draft – 5 BCS schools, 2 Non BCS; 2008 draft – 4 BCS schools, 1 Non BCS; 2007 draft – 4 BCS schools, 1 Non BCS; 2006 draft – 8 BCS schools, 0 Non BCS; 2005 draft – 5 BCS schools, 2 Non BCS.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 22, 2010 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
AJ loves production
Mathews has had a ton of production in college and that might catch AJ’s eye.
by Aussiecharger on Feb 24, 2010 5:32 PM PST up reply actions
Right,
But when it comes to runningbacks, AJ commonly drafts backs from small conference schools based upon production.
Look at LT, Michael Turner, Gartrell Johnson, and Marcus Thomas. Darren Sproles is pretty much the only exception (while assuming Hester and Pinnock were drafted as fullbacks)
It is obviously not overwhelming evidence that AJ loves to draft backs from small schools, but he certainly does not shy away from drafting small school backs.
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
You guys would love Mathews.
I am probably biased being an alumni of FSU, but Mathews is the best back I have ever seen at FSU. He is faster than you think. He can run over guys, make guys drop their jocks, and/or simply just run away from guys. He did most of his damage against ranked teams ie cincy, boise, and wisc. Plus he did this with an inferrior OL, remember he did go to FSU, not a pac 10 or ACC school.
Someone mentioned that he cant get the tough yards. Umm he did just fine. You have to remember what school he played for. Pat Hill is a coach who simply runs the ball on 1st and 2nd down. There is no suprise, the play is a hb lead, or a sweep. Other teams in the wac claim to know what fsu is going to run before the offense does. And again, the OL was inferior.
The only knock I have on Mathews is his health. I saw him his freshman year and said he would be a heisman candidate. I still think he could have if he would have stayed healthy. SD is one of the few teams I hope he goes to.
Thanks for stopping bye
I have a few questions. Namely I heard he came off the field on third down, who replaced him and why?
What type of tendency did the offense have on third down (formation, personal, play calling ect..)?
Thanks in advance
Remember
They had another, more experienced, quality running back on their team in Lonyae Miller.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Mathews
He didn’t always come off the field on third down. Fresno State is a run first kind of team. He was generally replaced by R. Rouse. Mathews is a cross between M. Pittman and L. Neal. He’s better though.
by FinFanFromCA on Feb 23, 2010 12:22 AM PST up reply actions
pro style formations
The good thing for mathews is that that Fresno state plays a pro style offense. But the play calling was very conservative. his hands are fine, but when FSU passed the ball they would go to the receivers. Also, as someone else said, FSU also has miller (good back, but Mathews is MUCH better), and Rouse (who is just like sproles on 3rd downs).
I have heard one of Mathews weakness’ is his speed. I think people will be suprised. I have heard that he is being timed in the high 4.3. if that is true, that puts him in the same company as best, dwyer, and spiller.
Great post
Figure Id toss my 2 cents in. I believe the Chargers have an outside chance of actually drafting Best, because Im starting to think the Chargers could be playing 2010 without Sproles. He would be the back I would prefer the Chargers to target on the 1st day, Im not really concerned with his size. I just love his ability to catch the football and return kicks. Again this assumes no Sproles.
Between Mathews and Dwyer, I like Mathews a lot better from a number of stand points. I just think he fits are system well due to ideal size and running style. The patience and vision he has makes up for the lack of ideal speed. But both these guys have good acceleration, I just think Dwyer is more of a downhill guy; and I dont know what he would offer on 3rd down.
Would have preferred that Mathews caught the ball more, and had learned more from a blocking stand point.
Would also like to toss out my sleeper downhill pick.
Ben Tate
I figure we draft 2 RBs this year
I like Hardesty more than Tate
If we are talking about backs to get in the 3rd round+.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Toby Gerhart, James Starks, Joique Bell
I would take any of those guys over Hardesty. Would take Tate before Starks, though.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 23, 2010 7:04 PM PST up reply actions
There is not a football expert out there that would agree with you
Now if you said you’d pass on Hardesty, take another position and draft those guys later, your comment would be a little less out-on-a-limb.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
On any of them?
Starks is a bit of a reach, true, but I don’t like Hardesty’s gimpy knees or relative lack of production. I still would take any of those three. And yes, I know Hardesty plays in the SEC, but this is like the Charly Martin vs. Buster Davis argument I posited months ago: beastly numbers at a smaller school (and therefore against weaker opponents) are ALWAYS substantiated by talent.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 24, 2010 7:35 PM PST up reply actions
I can't tell you exactly why
But with the exception of sometimes Gerhart, Hardesty is listed as a higher potential draft pick than Starks or Bell or Tate.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I agree that Hardesty is not all that good.
I don’t know enough about Joique Bell to definitely say that he is better than Hardesty, but there are many backs I would rather have before Hardesty.
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
As I said to StrangeBroP25
The experts disagree.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
FYI
You misspelled LeGarrette. Not to mention, he has much better speed than Tolbert.
Anyways, I do think that Ryan Mathews is the best back that will be available for our pick. Good balance, good vision, good acceleration, decent breakaway speed.
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
Wondering where Blout projects
Early second I would guess. Am I off?
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 22, 2010 5:44 PM PST up reply actions
4th
From what Ive been reading, but that could have more to do with his hay maker and less about his abilities. That punch might have cost him one or two rounds. Im sure he’ll be interview a lot during the combine .
Blout is the Milton Bradley of Football?
hah
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 22, 2010 6:49 PM PST up reply actions
He's not Milton Bradley
Bradley has a string of multiple incidents and rarely is contrite or shows an overall dedication to being a better person afterwards. Blount’s punch was an isolated thing and he stayed in school and worked hard at football during his suspended senior season despite never knowing if they’d let him on the field again. He’s very apologetic about the incident and actually has regret. That is the opposite of how Milton Bradley would handle it.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Besides, Milton Bradley makes boring board games.
They’re no Avalon Hill. Their parent company, Hasbro, bought Avalon Hill, but that didn’t help.
I have no idea about LeGarrette Blount’s board game design skills, but I’d probably venture that he’s no Klaus Teuber or Ray Winninger.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Feb 24, 2010 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
He made this one where you punch your opponent and then…
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
There's a RISK joke in here somewhere
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 28, 2010 7:54 AM PST up reply actions
I keep trying to tell people here
The punch isn’t costing him as much as his actual skills as a RB are. Scouts don’t like his running style or his ability to finish runs. And with his size (he’s big for an NFL RB not named Brandon Jacobs) his speed is an issue as well. It’s dropping him until at least the 4th round in most projections if not lower.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
No way he goes in the second.
Probably in the latter picks of the fourth, or the fifth round.
Who knows though, crazier things have happened.
This off-season officially sucks for FIVE reasons and counting...
Lets look at last years draft for a second
1rst round, Larry English, I mean honestly how many of you thought we would draft an outside LB or a Shawn Merriman possible replacement? Gartrell Johnson (got cut quick)in the 4th round, a player that Norv and A.J praised for his downhill running style. I think they may surprise us with our all our thinking. I still think we will draft 2 running backs this year but mid to late rounds unless there is best available and someone like Mathews maybe dweyer fall to us 3rd round(unless we get extra picks via trading Cro or tendering merriman/sproles). My point is I know they still want a 1rst 2nd down back and a sproles type 3rd down scat back or game charger but are we really gonna keep Sproles. Ok lets look at the options, franchise him again, how many of you believe they will pay that money and what is the history of the chargers franchising the same player back to back years? Ok what about using the tender, believe me there are so many teams that would love to have sproles, he wants to test the market and will get big RB money offers. I would hate to lose him more than any charger fan but just like English/Merriman they may be looking for a replacement. No one in this post mentioned this, I’m not sure if everyone assumes hes gonna be a charger for sure or what. His replacement options: Dexter Mccluster, or ever his brother from another mother 5’6" Miquale Lewis from ball state. We may be able to draft McCluster mid rounds and maybe get Lewis very late or undrafted. The other back would be a downhill guy like dwyer, mathews, or even Garhart who I like if we get late. I wouldn’t be surprised if the chargers drafted a CB to replace Cro in the 1rst round knowing how the chargers draft or even a WR to replace VJAX or Floyd in the 1rst, Just some thought that may be out there but going off of chargers drafting history I would’nt be surprised!
I thought they would draft a OLB last year
I actually thought they would draft Clay Mathews for sure, but when Oher fell I thought that would be the pick. And I mentioned that I thought Sproles may not be back in 2010 in my original reply to this post about half way up the page.
CJ Spiller is ideal for the Bolts
but probably won’t be there. If he isn’t, no one else is good enough to take in the 1st with such holes on the DL. I like a big NT like Williams from Tenessee in the 1st and maybe Matthews in the second. That would be great. Matthews should be their guy. I love Dwyer as a RB, but not for this team. Gerhart or Blount in the fourth is more likely for bruiser. Does anyone else think M Bennett might see some playing time this year? He isn’t a long term fix, but I can see him having some success. I wish they would tender Sproles and trade him for J Cribbs in CLE. That fills the spot of WR and Special team cover guy (Osgood who is a goner) and K/P returner (Sproles) He wants about $6 M the same as Sproles. Think about the WR corp with VJAX, Floyd, Nannee, Cribbs, and Gates. That would be SOOOOO scary. Forget about Buster, trade him for a 4th.
It would take more than Sproles to get Cribbs.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Feb 26, 2010 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
Sproles and a pick or two? Say, a 3rd and next year's 5th?
I love Cribbs on the field, and I’ve heard very positive things about his behavior off of it.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Feb 28, 2010 7:56 AM PST up reply actions
I assume Spiller won't be there
He also seems a lot like Best, maybe more moves but not an every down back. I compared Mendenhall with DMac to say that theircollege videos show one has NFL elite speed and one is about average (Rashard, trust me I know he was on two fantasy teams and didn’t have a carry over 15 yards except against the Chargers.) I know DMac sucks but he’s fast; he got sucked into the Black Hole organization.
After watching the combine, its hard not to like Matthews running a 4.41 at his size (215 ish). Watching other clips, he doesn’t seem so upright – I like the story of him growing up living in a car and being hungry. Dwyer’s times were 4.59 and 4.69 – a bit disappointing but he runs away from DBs on tape. I might shade toward Matthews now but Dwyer still has impressive tape.
As for Norv, he’s had a 1000 yard rusher virtually every year except last and gave Frank Gore a 2000 yard season. I think he’d like a bigger back to bring in one-back sets along with double screening with Tolbert or Hester. I think he really underutilized Sproles late in the season and in the screen game. I’m not sure a scat back is as important as improving 31st in the league in rushing. I actually think DT or MLB like a McClain to replace Cooper would be bigger needs than scat if Chargers wait til 2nd or 3rd round. Gerhardt impressed with a 4.5. I think the Chargers waited too long and settled for Gatrell and hopefully don’t make the same mistake.
Ron Rivera for Cal Head Coach. I'm a one man movement!
by bringbackbuddytrees on Feb 28, 2010 9:20 PM PST reply actions
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