Game Preview: Chiefs at Chargers, Chargers on Defense

Chiefs Running the Ball

• 1st in Yards/Game (175.2).
• 2nd in Yards/Carry (4.9).
• 9th in Rush TDs (10).
• 8th in Runs for 1st downs (23.8%).
• 3rd in Runs for 20+ Yards (13).
• 9th in Fumbles (4).

Chargers Stopping the Run

• 5th in Yards/Game allowed (95.2), down from 3rd last week.
• 5th in Yards/Carry allowed (3.7), down from 3rd last week.
• 21st in Rush TDs allowed (11), down from 13th last week.
• 6th in Runs for 1st downs against (20.0%), down from 4th last week.
• 4th in Runs for 20+ Yards allowed (5), down from 2nd last week.
• 32nd in Fumbles recovered (1), same as last week. They'd go down if they could though.

Last week I described the Chargers' run defense as "very good but not great". Then, against the Raiders, they looked like they were the JV football team at an all-girls' middle school. They are still terrible at causing fumbles, for whatever reason, and are not amongst the league's best in goal-line stops.

It's becoming more obvious as the season drags along that this is a good run defense that relies a bit on the good passing defense behind them and the good offense that takes the field when they get off of it. They are not going to win the game for you, but they usually won't give the game away (although they did last week).

Advantage: Chiefs. 

Chiefs Throwing the Ball

• 25th in Yards/Game (198.7)
• 14th in Yards/Attempt (7.1)
• 5th in TDs (23)
• 6th in Passes for 1st down (37.6%)
• 18th in Passes for 20+ yards (34)
• 3rd in Sacks taken (17)
• 1st in Interceptions thrown (4)

Here's what I am comfortable going on the record with: Matt Cassel, in a particular offensive system that plays to his strengths, is a very good QB. Also, Dwayne Bowe is a monster, formed in a lab with a singular purpose of catching football and making professional DBs look silly. Those two guys together, with the chemistry they have formed over the last two seasons, are a very dangerous combination.

This week the Chargers will face Brodie Croyle, as Cassel has had his appendix removed during the week, who (logically) is not as good as Cassel and does not have that same chemistry with Bowe. The best-case scenario is that the rust he has from not playing in a regular-season game this season forces him to hold onto the ball a little too long and the Chargers pass-rush keeps the Chiefs passing game in check.

Chargers Defending the Pass

• 1st in Yards/Game allowed (186.2), up from 2nd last week.
• 2nd in Yards/Attempt (6.4), same as last week.
• 4th in TDs allowed (12), same as last week.
• 5th in Passes for 1st downs allowed (31.2%), same as last week.
• 1st in Passes for 20+ yards allowed (28), same as last week.
• 6th in Sacks (34), down from 1st last week.
• 12th in Interceptions (13), down from 10th last week.