Game Preview: Patriots at Chargers, Chargers on Defense

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2010 1:47 PM PDT in San Diego Chargers Game Previews

Patriots Running the Ball

12th in Yards/Game (123.2).
10th in Yards/Carry (4.4).
12th in Rush TDs (4).
1st in Runs for 1st downs (30.2%).
8th in Runs for 20+ Yards (5).
1st in Fumbles (0).

Does this team blow anyone else's mind? Their current running back situation could be summed up by saying "BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead", and yet they're fielding one of the best and most efficient running attacks in all of football. I wanted to compliment their Offensive Coordinator on an excellent job, but found something odd.....the New England Patriots have neither an Offensive Coordinator or a Defensive Coordinator.

The closest I could find in their roster of coaches was "Offensive Assistant" Brian Ferentz, who undoubtedly has great genetics, and so I will praise him and Bill Belichick (who probably runs every part of the team down to the laundry and never sleeps a wink) for somehow having a great running attack that probably costs the team $150 a game to field.

Chargers Stopping the Run

6th in Yards/Game allowed (91.5), up from 7th last week.
6th in Yards/Carry allowed (3.7), up from 8th last week.
9th in Rush TDs allowed (3), down from 6th last week.
8th in Runs for 1st downs against (19.3%), up from 10th last week.
5th in Runs for 20+ Yards allowed (2), up from 6th last week.
27th in Fumbles recovered (1), down from 25th last week.

This running game may be the best test of the Chargers new-found run-stopping defensive line. If they can continue to be a top 5-10 run defense, that would certainly make it easier for Norv & Co. to right the ship.

On a side note, the only category here in which the Chargers look less-the-stellar is in recovered fumbles. This is somewhat of an anomaly because they've done a decent job of forcing fumbles over the season, just not recovering them.

Advantage: Chargers.

Patriots Throwing the Ball

14th in Yards/Game (231.0)
12th in Yards/Attempt (7.2)
5th in TDs (10)
11th in Passes for 1st down (34.9%)
11th in Passes for 20+ yards (17)
5th in Sacks taken (8)
8th in Interceptions thrown (4)

Usually a tough guy to get to, Tom Brady has been sacked 3 times in each other his last two games. That means that not all hope is lost on the Chargers getting pressure on him and maybe forcing him into making a mistake (he threw 2 interceptions last week against the Ravens).

The Patriots passing attack is not dangerous, but is hard to stop. There will not be a lot of big plays, especially with Randy Moss gone, but it is difficult to keep them from converting on 3rd down. This will be a great test for not only Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason, but also Donald Strickland and Paul Oliver. having Steve Gregory for this game would've helped.

Chargers Defending the Pass

1st in Yards/Game allowed (163.7), up from 3rd last week.
3rd in Yards/Attempt (6.1), down from 2nd last week.
4th in TDs allowed (5), up from 5th last week.
3rd in Passes for 1st downs allowed (29.4%), same as last week.
3rd in Passes for 20+ yards allowed (11), same as last week.
2nd in Sacks (21), up from 4th last week.
7th in Interceptions (7), down from 5th last week.

I guess the only argument I could make against the Chargers pass-rush and ability to get interceptions is that thusfar they've yet to face an actual good team, with the Chiefs being the only real exception. It's just ridiculous to think that they have the same amount of sacks and interceptions as the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants.

This game could go one of two ways for the Chargers pass defense. Either they frustrate Tom Brady all day and I have to start believing that they might be the best secondary and pass-rush in the league, or Tom Brady sits in the pocket all day and slices the defense apart Jason-Campbell-style. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt until I see what Ron Rivera has up his sleeve this week.

Advantage: Chargers.

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chargers 42 patriots 7

by bot on Oct 22, 2010 2:18 PM PDT reply actions

I missed last week's fiasco

… but didn’t the Rams pound out the Chargers run D? These are whole season stats. Chargers were doing really well the first few games, aren’t the wheels kinda coming of the D these last few games? I know a big part of the decline was simple fatigue, but all that adds up. This Chargers run D seems beat up.

On a stats basis it looks like a tie. One a wear and tear basis, I wonder if the Pats have an edge even if they don’t have a Maroney, Faulk or Taylor.

by Trendsearcher on Oct 22, 2010 2:25 PM PDT reply actions

Still 4th in defensive DVOA.

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by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 22, 2010 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Yards per carry went down

It was 3.8 last week, 3.7 this week.. So while the Rams ran a lot (Jackson ran 29 times), they didn’t have much success until their last drive.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Keep in mind, one of the interceptions last week was at the end of the half, and Brady heaved a hail mary into the endzone, where a ravens player INTd it.

I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP

These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

by patriotguy2 on Oct 22, 2010 2:54 PM PDT reply actions

Gates.

That’s all I can say. If Gates is even close to healthy, the Bolts should give the Pats a handful. Rivers will be able to bomb all day to Crayton, Davis, and whoever else is active, because stopping Gatesy is a three-man job. Brady will have to get downfield on every drive, and he doesn’t have the personnel to make it work, especially on the west coast. Without Gates, I don’t know how well Hardwick can hold up for that extra second or two against Wilfork; the Bolts may have less success and give the Pats more opportunities to control the clock and play a balanced game.

Oh, and that crazy Special Teams bit better be under control.

An autumn Sunday,
Perched in front of the big screen,
Beer in white knuckles.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Oct 22, 2010 3:23 PM PDT reply actions

That's a big consideration with this Pats defence

In the game last week against the Ravens, Todd Heap had been opening up a lot of plays by being a matchup issue and threatening the middle of the field. After Meriweather hit him (cheap shot, likely, and well deserving of the fine), the game was essentially changed.

To quote Cold, Hard Football Facts:

Curious, we crunched the numbers after hearing the interview. Meriweather made a helmet-to-helmet hit on the truth: Baltimore’s production, especially in the passing game, declined noticeably after he laid out Heap in a, well, heap.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco completed 8 of 9 passes (88.9%) before the hit
Flacco completed 19 of 26 passes (73.1%) after the hit
Flacco averaged 11.4 YPA before the hit
Flacco averaged 7.0 YPA after the hit
The Ravens scored 10 points in the 21 minutes before the hit
The Ravens scored 10 points in the 52 minutes after the hit
Flacco targeted running backs zero times before the hit
Flacco targeted running backs 11 times after the hit
Wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh caught two passes before the hit
Houshmandzadeh caught zero passes after the hit
Running back Ray Rice caught zero passes before the hit
Rice caught eight passes after the hit
The Ravens converted 3 of 5 (60%) third downs before the hit
The Ravens converted 2 of 11 (18%) third downs after the hit

The presence of Heap opened up the middle of the field to receptions, and that had knock-on effects that mean Flacco could throw it to WRs deep on the hash-marks. When Heap was out of play, those deep routes were gone, as was the middle of the field, meaning Flacco had to pick out his RBs and checkdown reads quite ineffectively.

If Gates is similarly out, I expect the Pats to play the Charger O like they did the Ravens O – stop the run, force Rivers onto checkdowns, and play a hybrid Cover-2 looking thing to restrict the deep threat because they know there’s no TE to gash them up the middle seam.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Oct 22, 2010 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Ugh, link fail

Source for that is Cold Hard Football Facts, here.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Oct 22, 2010 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions

With all due respect...

You’re comparing Rivers to Flacco. I wouldn’t compare Brady to Henne, you know?

Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.

by Mad_Villain on Oct 23, 2010 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions

flacco is a very good QB. Not as god as Rivers, but he's still good.

These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

by patriotguy2 on Oct 23, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions

Are you saying Rivers is God?

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by NinjaZX6R on Oct 23, 2010 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Rivers and Brady are both gods.....

Rivers is Jupiter and Brady is Cupid.

Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.

by Mad_Villain on Oct 23, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll take that.

Rivers can hang out with a bunch of sweaty dudes in armor while Brady cleans up on all the hot as….ahem.

I know which one I’d take.

Besides, every guy knows girls LOVE diamonds, and Super Bowl rings are loaded with them.

I exercise strong self control. I never drink anything stronger than gin before breakfast

by DocOne on Oct 23, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Rivers is married, hence why he hasn't one a Superbowl.

I am the anti-analyst.

by Madcat5 on Oct 23, 2010 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't follow...

I exercise strong self control. I never drink anything stronger than gin before breakfast

by DocOne on Oct 23, 2010 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Either way I don't think he can "bomb all day to Crayton, Davis, and whoever else..."

All of our DBs, probably even the safeties, have plenty of speed to easily stay with those guy step for step all day. The only chance to bomb on any of them will be to get your run game going and hoping they bite on a play action. But you DID mention one thing, the special teams. The way it looks, we should have good to great field position all day. You guys have been giving up huge yards to ST units far inferior to ours.

I exercise strong self control. I never drink anything stronger than gin before breakfast

by DocOne on Oct 23, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't count us as being the same as we were.

I am the anti-analyst.

by Madcat5 on Oct 23, 2010 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't count on US being the same as we were either.

Our “soft” D and inexperienced secondary are starting to play better as a whole and come together as a unit. That’s the hallmark of a Belichick defense. We are watching this defense grow up week to week and though there will be some growing pains, this unit will be among the elite if not this year then the next.

I exercise strong self control. I never drink anything stronger than gin before breakfast

by DocOne on Oct 23, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Offensive Coordinator

The Patriots don’t have one, but the de-facto guy since Josh McDaniels left after 2008 has been quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien. That’s been our perspective for the last year-plus, based off sideline observations in games and practice.

We also believe that the Pats have stopped naming coordinators because they keep getting poached… but I’m not bitter.

by 108 on Oct 22, 2010 4:05 PM PDT reply actions

ahem...

penalties?
3rd downs?
Thought I made it clear on the offensive preview….
throw em up John!

Defensive coach tells me: "Give the pass rush 5 seconds of good coverage on those receivers, they'll get it done!" Then he tells the front 7: "You've got 3 seconds to get pressure, the secondary can't cover all day!". Mutually dependent motivation. It works.

by Superduperboltman on Oct 22, 2010 4:06 PM PDT reply actions

Silver Fox Sighting!

Hey John, I’m not confident in my ability to get this video to imbed as a fan shot and rather than fail, I’m deciding to let you (or someone else) handle it if they wish. It’s a good NFL network video where Acee previews the upcoming game, talks about the history between these two teams in recent years, and how the chargers are responding to their slow start.
here

by sd_Baby-B on Oct 22, 2010 5:34 PM PDT reply actions

The Chargers haven't played anybody good!!!

Stats Scmats.. You can’t compare teams stats unless they play against the same teams and they haven’t in the LEAST….. The Pats have played some of the league’s best in only 5 games and are 4-1…… the Jets, Ravens, Miami……. San Diego has played NOBODY any good and are 2-4 and pad their stats near the end of games. New England is the first real team than they have played. Your analysis is grossly faulted and you are grossly under-estimating New England.

by SoxAreNumberOne on Oct 22, 2010 10:38 PM PDT reply actions

Hate to say it ...

But these were my sentiments exactly. Seattle, Jax, Arizona, Oakland, Chiefs, Rams? Not exactly the Jets and Ravens. This is the game that will really tell us who this year’s Chargers are. Their backs are against the wall at 2-4 and the hard part of the schedule coming up with the Chief’s schedule getting easier (the only really tough team the Chiefs play from here out is the Titans).

If this is as good a team as we think it is they will rally and win a big, tough game at home. If we have Gates and the “good” CBD shows up this will be a competitive dogfight to the very end. If Ryan chooses this week to breakout we could win comfortably, barring and further special teams meltdowns. Bad game to not have Kaeding.

by Robo65 on Oct 22, 2010 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Now THAT^^^^ is wishful thinking

barring and further special teams meltdowns

Made me laugh. More like inventing new ways to meltdown. The Chargers special teams can be counted on to consistantly melt down. We should cancel ALL teams. We don’t have a coach, we don’t have the players..
- Every drive is straight four downs, no punts
- Kick offs? Nope just set the ball at the 35 and let the opposing team down it.
- Don’t blother putting a guy down feild to recieve the kick off or punts, just let the opposition down it where it lands.
- My one minor hang up are feild goals, I guess we do need to keep trying kick those.

by Trendsearcher on Oct 23, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Slightly defending the chargers a bit

Your analysis is grossly faulted and you are grossly under-estimating New England.

This I agree with.

But I want you to keep in mind. Although they haven’t been playing any amazing teams(besides the chiefs. Have to give them credit), if they played the ravens, jets, or MAAYBE miami, they will still probably have a top 5 offense.

And if I’m not mistaken, you guys have been committing penalties.

But you guys are VERY much underestimating us.

These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

by patriotguy2 on Oct 23, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions