Game Preview: Wild Card Weekend
Playoff football! Whether or not the Chargers are playing this weekend, there is nothing that gets me more excited than playoff football. The month-long thrill of a "one-and-done" tournament drives every sport....except for college football.
Everything up until this week has been about preparation. Keep your stars healthy, keep your players sharp, keep morale high and do everything you can to get a high playoff seed. Well, with the exception of Jamal Williams going down in week 1, the Chargers have done all of those things and so have at least half of the teams that made the playoffs.
After the jump, I'll give a quick preview of each game and let you know who's going to win.
Jets at Bengals
The first game of the weekend has the best chance of being the worst. Both because the Jets could easily blow the Bengals out again, and because there is absolutely no offensive firepower on either of these teams.
Anyone who has watched them consistently has seen Cincinnati get a little bit worse with each major injury. The injury to Antwan Odom took their pass-rush from great to good. The injury to Domata Peko, who is supposed to be back this week against the Jets after missing about a month, took their run defense from great to good. The injury to Rey Maualuga took the entire defense's intensity from very high to pretty high. Piece by piece, this team has become very pedestrian on both sides of the ball.
On the opposite side of the spectrum are the New York Jets. They started the season off hot (3-0), and then (like the Broncos) everyone figured them out and they started slumping (going 1-6 in the next 7 games). Then, the scheduling gods put a couple of creampuffs in front of Gang Green. Three straight wins against the Panthers, Bills and Buccaneers came because those teams could not score enough points to match NY's low-scoring offense. In the last two weeks of the season, the Jets played strong in the first half against the Colts and Bengals....then took advantage when they got the chance to play the 2nd stringers from those teams in the 2nd half of each game.
So, are the Jets as good as some people think? No. Their defense is good and their running game can be good against a poor run defense, but their passing offense is just awful and if you can manage to put 20 points on the board you're all but assured a victory. This is not a team Charger fans should fear. However....
Winner: New York Jets
Eagles at Cowboys
I got a call yesterday from a relative of mine, who is familiar with Philly's fans, who asked me "What's the weather like in Philly? And by that I mean, in relation to the Eagles and their fans." He knew that one big loss and this fanbase turns on their team. Just like one big win and they're all back. I told him that in 3+ hours of driving and listening to Philly sports radio on Tuesday, I heard nothing but McNabb bashing. The hosts didn't even bother to talk about the 76ers or whatever else might've been going on in Philly or even with the team. It was just "Here are the reasons we hate Donovan McNabb" and "I don't care if he wins this playoff game, I want him GONE."
The funniest quote of the entire trip, and this came from a host and not a caller, was this: "The reason I want Donovan gone is that he's led us to five NFC Championship games and no Super Bowls. He needs to go so we can get somebody who can win in the playoffs." Number one, getting to five NFC Championship games means he can win in the playoffs. Number two, many people (myself included) believe that the winner of the Super Bowl needs skill in addition to luck. The Eagles, and McNabb, have been rather unlucky. Number three, and this is something that will blow the minds of you rational football fans, Eagles fans really believe that as soon as they get rid of McNabb his successor will be guaranteed to be better late in games and late in the playoffs. If you bring up the possibility of their next QB after McNabb being a step down from Donovan, they just don't understand. It's like you're speaking gibberish. It's truly amazing.
Anyways, onto the game. The Cowboys are playing well, but look at their last 5 games. They had tough losses to the Giants, and then won games against the Saints (already clinched), Redskins and Eagles (already clinched). I know the Eagles were playing for the division and the #2 seed, and the Saints were playing for history, but if those guys told you they were playing at 80-90% in those games so that they'd have something left for the playoffs (or so that they'd be healthy for the playoffs)....you'd understand. While the Cowboys are not to be overlooked, they're not my Super Bowl favorite.
This game is 100% about the Eagles. The Eagles have the potential to get to Tony Romo, stop the Cowboys run and score a ton of points. After watching last week's game, I wouldn't be surprised if they did just that. Last week, I saw very few blitzes from them and McNabb (like like Philip Rivers against the Redskins) looked more concerned with not making mistakes than making plays. Essentially, it was played almost as if it were a meaningless game. I expect a lot more from them this week. Don't forget how huge DeSean Jackson has been when he plays in primetime.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
Ravens at Patriots
Next week, if the Patriots are traveling to San Diego to play the Chargers, you'll hear me say "the Patriots are 2-6 on the road this season" a lot. It will be my go-to fact. With that in mind, I can't disregard the fact that New England is 8-0 at home and going up against a team that doesn't have a great secondary and doesn't have a lot of weapons in the passing game (New England's biggest weakness). Also, Joe Flacco is a good player with a lot of potential but still probably doesn't have what it takes to have a 100+ QB Rating day against a confusing Patriots defense....and that's probably what it will take to win.
I'll touch on Wes Welker briefly. He's a good player, but a lot of what he does is related to the system. They run guys deep (Moss, Watson) and run Welker short. He runs great routes, is really tough and has fantastic hands. Julian Edelman, his replacement in the playoffs, runs very good routes and has shown that he has very good hands. Also, knowing how important that position is in this offense, he'll probably have Tom Brady working out with him constantly this week and any following weeks. That can only help him. I think he'll be fine.
The Patriots gameplan going into this one is similar to the Chargers weekly gameplan. Put up points quickly with the passing game, and take away Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Force Flacco to beat you, and double his favorite target (Derrick Mason). The games the Ravens have won are simply because their defense has kept the opposing team from being able to score points, but I think the Patriots offense is good enough (at least at home) to do just that. I also think nobody is better at using short-passes and 5 yard runs (Fred Taylor sighting!) to eat up clock than the Patriots.
Winner: New England Patriots
Packers at Cardinals
Drew Magary made a great point in his column at Deadspin yesterday (edited to be work-safe):
No way in hell I pick against the Cardinals when there's always a chance that Kurt Warner will slaughter a calf for God's glory and be transformed, once more, into '99 Warner, setting the f***ing Earth aflame for four weeks straight. I don't give a s*** if Boldin or Rodgers-Cromartie aren't playing. If '99 Warner materializes on the field Sunday, Green Bay has no f***ing chance. ‘99 Warner can get off atomically precise passes forty yards downfield with seven defenders hanging off of his d***. He can also turn water into Booker's. There's nothing else like it. I swear, I've never seen a QB play better than when '99 Warner strikes. Ever. Not Brady. Not Manning. No one. He's unstoppable when he's feeling it.
All week, when asked about this game, I've responded that I don't see how the Cardinals win. The Packers have a better offense, both throwing and on the ground, and a better defense. They have a better pass-rush, better corners and the receivers are a wash for me (when you factor in TEs). Arizona might have an advantage on the offensive line, but it's incremental at best.
Aaron Rodgers has the potential to be the playoff MVP. He's an odd mix of Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. He can make all the throws, usually makes good decisions, can make plays with his feet and seemingly never gives up on a play. If he can manage to keep his interception total low, the Packers are a real threat to make a run at the Super Bowl. That's just my two cents, anyways.
The last game of wild card weekend is almost never good. I'm betting that this one is a blowout, but which way depends on Kurt Warner. If '99 Warner shows up, the Cardinals win by at least 14. If he doesn't, they lose by at least 20. I'm gonna go with my gut and say that Kurt can't put together another postseason like that until next year.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
1 recs |
121 comments
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Comments
Now I realize why the league is becoming a passing league
Because of the ability to come back from a deficit. If you can’t throw, it’s pretty much game over if you’re down by two scores at the start of the 4th quarter.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 7:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's always been true.
What’s changed is that passing has gotten easier and safer, and the curve of coaching and player development has favored passing lately. But yeah, if you can throw the ball you can engineer a big comeback, and if you can’t you probably can’t. I guess it’s probably also gotten easier for a good offense to engineer a big comeback through the air….
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 8, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Am i mistaken or is that Philly fan missing out on the super bowl
When they had TO.
The one and only AzDuck
by Dude52089 on Jan 8, 2010 7:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
he did
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Jan 8, 2010 6:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I may be wrong
but I think the Ravens are the better team and will beat the Pats.
by JeromeB on Jan 8, 2010 7:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ravens are a good team against bad rushing defense
Pat’s rushing D is ranked 13th on DVOA, while Baltimore has holes in its secondary.
Ravens can pull out a win, but I think the Pats win based on homefield advantage.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 7:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And experience.
And their offense is second only to ours.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 8, 2010 8:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to quote something from a Bill Simmons article, replacing the names to apply to this game.
When the playoffs roll around, some gamblers have a tendency to get cute and go against the grain […] so they talk themselves into stats like “Did you know the Ravens had the best time of possession mark of any team this season?” and “They could have been 14-2 with a couple of breaks,” and suddenly you’re going against Brady and the Patriots at home like an idiot because you want to be a hero.
Here’s a good rule of thumb: Take a deep breath and ask yourself one question: “If my life depended on this pick, would I still be making this bet?”
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 8, 2010 8:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps Bill Simmons will be right
but I am taking the Ravens plus the points (currently 3.5).
The Pats were 10 – 6 this season and are not the elite in the AFC this season ( the Colts and Chargers are). The Ravens have the better D by far and they are much better at running the ball. I also believe that the Ravens will have an easier time passing the ball vs the Pats, then the Pats will passing the ball vs the Ravens.
I don’t consider picking a 9-7 team to beat a 10-6 team in the first round of the playoffs trying to be a hero. I think some people hear the name Brady and Patriots and think that they are still the undefeated and unbeatable team. In my opinion they are still a very good team, but so are the Ravens.
Since you and Mr. Simmons are so sure on this game, perhaps you should pool your money together call your bookie and make a ton of cash.
by JeromeB on Jan 8, 2010 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He actually said that a long time ago and wasn't talking about this game specifically.
but I think the logic still applies here. My point is that I just would never wager against Brady and Belichick at home in the playoffs.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 8, 2010 11:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think his logic
would apply if you were talking about a big underdog beating the Colts at home in the next round. Perhaps then you would be trying to look like a hero or picking a big upset. But it doesn’t seem to apply to a first round game were the spread is a mere 3.5 points.
If he said that when the Pats were the AFCs elite team, then it makes sense and would apply. Now they are not and it does not.
by JeromeB on Jan 8, 2010 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I keep telling you.
Cardinals will surprise.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 8, 2010 7:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Once that playoff light goes on for Warner and Fitzgerald...
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 8, 2010 7:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One playoff run does not make a trend.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Jan 8, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure
They don’t have a Jake Delhomme to bail them out this time.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 7:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they'll need Delhomme.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 8, 2010 8:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't be surprised.
If they win this game, I’m going to predict that they’ll make it to (and lose) another SB. Seriously, unless they get spoiled in the WC, they’re en route to becoming the next generation of the Bills.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 8, 2010 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No they won't
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jan 8, 2010 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, they’re going to surprise one of you.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Jan 8, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yes they will
and then play the vikes in a great second round game between warner and favre
by SoCalCMH on Jan 9, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OT: What is the general consensus about the Chargers Theme Song and the P.O.D. Anthem?
Love it? Like it? Don’t care? Makes us looks silly?
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 7:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
like it or love it...
it’s still a million times better than that crap t-pain did for the dolphins
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Jan 8, 2010 8:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
link
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Jan 8, 2010 9:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
stupid preview button...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=auzXBM448gw
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Jan 8, 2010 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like the POD song nearly as much as the Coryell-era disco piece
Thunderbolts and lightning will light up the sky-y-yy-y-y
We’ll give it all we got and more, the Cha-a-arger try-y-y-yyyyy!
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 8, 2010 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
John...
There is a real Problem when all of your picks match mine. This will not end well for us…
by Blueblood27 on Jan 8, 2010 8:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Surprised you’d pick the Pats.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Jan 8, 2010 6:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
cardinals win, cowboys win.
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Jan 8, 2010 9:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Red fish, blue fish.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 9:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
right! i think...
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Jan 8, 2010 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good analysis, John
I don’t know how or why, but I seem to think the Bengals and Cowboys will pull off victories (maybe just because of homefield advantage).
I have to pick one sure-thing winner for my Three Strikes pool, and I’m really in a quandary. I went with with the Pats. I have 12 hours to change it.
by Andy (allfield) on Jan 8, 2010 9:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hahaha
Actually, I already have one strike — damn Donkeys last week nearly wiped out the entire pool.
I just wanna survive so I can get my entrance fee back.
Who would you suggest if not the Pats?
by Andy (allfield) on Jan 8, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
cowboys...
i just don’t see philly over-coming that beatdown last week, whether they ramp it up or not…there’s no excuse for getting blown out like that when you’re playing for the #2 seed
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Jan 8, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with all picks except the Eagles.
Cowboy’s defense is underated, and can play inspired. At home with loud fans in that new stadium, Romo only has to limit mistakes to win this game. The problem is their tumultuous luck lately, and I’m not sure if they can overcome that, but my guess is they finally get that playoff win. Westbrook is a shell of his formerself, and all the Cowboys must do is shutdown Jackson.
by SJO on Jan 8, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not a popular pick
right now but I would take the Bengals. The Jets don’t even belong in the playoffs. A lot of people seem to be jumping on the Jets bandwagon right now but I don’t see it.
by JeromeB on Jan 8, 2010 10:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can't win if you can't pass
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 11:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You could probably win 1 playoff game
Against a particular matchup. And isn’t that as far as the Jets bandwagon goes at this point?
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
And I would say the Bengals are probably the best match up for the Jets, if only because both teams run the ball, have any anemic passing offensive, and have good defense. The only difference is Jets beat the Bengals in defense and rushing offense.
Although, if the Bengals can get their passing game to catch fire, it’s their win.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And the Jets defense is much, much better
Or rather, has played much, much better this season.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Better...
The Bengals are good at stopping the pass and are ok at passing the ball. The Jets are great at stopping the pass and suck at passing the ball. Advantage: Bengals, not overwhelmingly. Home-field goes to the Bengals, so we can stop there; the run game isn’t important enough for any differential to get the odds back to even.
I’m picking the Bengals. If the Pats win, I’ll pick the Bengals to take the Colts too, so they can lose the AFCC here 27-7 in 70º weather. We can call it the air-conditioner bowl.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 8, 2010 1:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cincy can't play the Colts in 2nd round
by 'Eaters on Jan 8, 2010 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure they can
If the Bengals and Patriots win this weekend.
Patriots VS Chargers
Bengals VS Colts
by SJO on Jan 8, 2010 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Patriots can't play the Colts in the 2nd round.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Crap
I hate to sound like a sociopath, but if the Pats come to SD next week I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get a few calls. Pats-Colts in the AFC Championship game is always going to be what the NFL wants.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Jan 8, 2010 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta put it out of the MoE, then.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 8, 2010 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
had the same thought
but don’t be surprised if the rest our starters at the end of the season colts once again are one and done. and if the bolts win, afc championship game is in sd!!!
by SoCalCMH on Jan 9, 2010 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you.
The Jets went all out because it was win-or-die. The Bengals looked at each other, asked “Jets or Texans?” and remembered getting whopped midseason by the Texans, so they laid down and watched.
Nobody knows nothing about the Bengals from the Week 17 game: they had a 15-game season.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 8, 2010 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
me either.
and ill take carson palmer anyday over marc can i get an interception sanchez.
by SoCalCMH on Jan 9, 2010 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, the NFL and NCAA Tourney are the only real major "one and dones"
I know, I’m nitpicking.
by 'Eaters on Jan 8, 2010 9:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Would be nice to see a best of like 3-5 games
But that would make the postseason potentially longer than the regular season.
"Just another Halo victory" - Rory Markas
by Slyintine on Jan 8, 2010 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With the exception of the FBS divsion
All the NCAA football division playoff are one and done. But, I guess that’s not major.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ding, ding
it’s also why they are the two most compelling sports playoff/tournaments around. and tell me again why college football chooses not to have one??? imagine a final four between the likes of florida, bama, ohio state and boise state with the winners in a legit nat’l champioship. i’m a pro guy, but it would rival the SB.
by SoCalCMH on Jan 9, 2010 12:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't hold your breath
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 9, 2010 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait. Why would Ohio State be involved?
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Jan 9, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Im picking...
Cincinnati, Dallas, New England and Arizona
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
by ChargersWitch on Jan 8, 2010 12:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
When was the last time all 4 home teams won on a playoff weekend?
Rarely happens, and I’d bet money it won’t happen this weekend either. In fact, these match-ups are so hard to handicap, I’d say two teams will win on the road, and that NO team is the clear home favorite…. The Cowboys just stomped the Eagles and have beaten them twice already this season (and seem to match up well against them), and the Patriots are undefeated at home, but I’d have little confidence in placing a bet which parlayed both of those teams to win.
Not all these games are likely to be close, and yet they all could go either way….
WITHOUT actually putting any money down (but at least acknowledging that), I’m going to pick the Packers and the Cowboys, the Bengals, and the Ravens in an upset…. Not sure any of the others would I even consider upsets (certainly not the Cowboys), even though the Cardinals are at home and the Jets drubbed Cincy last week.
That also happens to be 2 teams winning against the team they defeated last week, and two reversing defeats: the Bengals from last week’s debacle, and the Raven from earlier in the regular season.
by jctess on Jan 8, 2010 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
nervous nelly
Does anyone else get a little nervous about all this final game in Miami talk and the chargers? I just watched the yahoo preview of whos gonna win that 1 game at the end of the year. At they acually agreed that its the chargers hands down. I’m only 29 but have seen my fair share of chargers coming up short. It will be a magical day in San Diego when it happens i will tell you what.
by big staxx on Jan 8, 2010 12:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Its completely insane
To make any predictions about who will be there in the end. Almost all the teams could be that team and picking one team is either for show or to try to get lucky in Vegas.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it is that insane
This weeks games are tough as all 4 appear to be pretty even match ups, but picking the teams that you think will get to the end is a little more than luck to me. Luck is involved in every game but selecting the best (or better) teams would make it more possible that you would end up being correct. Here are the odds of winning the SB for the AFC teams:
IND 3-1
SD 3-1
NE 12-1
Balt 22-1
CIN 30-1
NYJ 35-1
If all the teams had about the same chance of winning it I don’t think the sportsbook would be giving such a wide variety of lines.
by JeromeB on Jan 8, 2010 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The sportsbook way makes a lot more sense than picking one team to win in it all
Picks are silly. They begin silly, they end silly and they mean nothing when they are right or wrong.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If I understand your post
correctly, you are not a big fan of picks and you think they are silly.
by JeromeB on Jan 8, 2010 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yup
I don’t get why people get so excited about picking super bowl winners. Once you know the two teams involved, then I can see the point. Or, if you’re gambling I suppose. Every time I hear someone say that the Chargers are going to win the Super Bowl, it feels like someone’s telling a joke that I don’t know the punch line to.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 4:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
not at all silly.
like it or not #1 gambling and the nfl go hand in hand. that and concussions are the dirty little secret roger goodell would rather forget but it’s one of the main reasons sports bars are packed all day on sundays.
like it or not #2 people who gamble and make their living off of gamblers know what they are doing. their record isn’t perfect of coarse but moneylines and spreads are what they are for a reason, and usually right. i got 180 games right this year and still couldn’t beat them.
by SoCalCMH on Jan 9, 2010 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
On day one of the season
I picked a Chargers/Packers Super Bowl.
So far, so good.
by LABillsFan on Jan 8, 2010 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
these are the wild card weekend winners
Bengals
Patriots
Eagles
Packers
Take these picks to the bank.
by big staxx on Jan 8, 2010 12:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
ok ok ok,here are the real winners this weekend...
JETS
PATS
PACKERS
DALLAS
I know cuz I’m a captain!

by Gorditoe1 on Jan 8, 2010 1:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
AAAAAAnd
The Jets smash on the Colts and we smash on the Pats for the AFC Championship meeting here in SD,Chargers Jets.
Theeeeeen…The Cowboys smash the Yikes and the Packers yoke out the Saints and that my friends is the NFC Championship game.
by Gorditoe1 on Jan 8, 2010 1:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
“well thats just like your opinion, man”
by big staxx on Jan 8, 2010 1:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
my picks
read my new fanpost when u get a change jets eales ravens pack my picks
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule reseident broncos fan for ap lol denver will rise again
by j-man on Jan 8, 2010 1:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
All visiting teams?
When was the last time that happened?
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 8, 2010 2:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
3 out of 4 in 2005...
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and 2004
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's it
So never.
The most common results seem to be 3 home teams winning followed by 2 home teams winning.
I think I saw either 2 or 3 instances of all home teams winning.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
I was only looking at the wild card weekends for all the years with 4 games that weekend. The Division rounds would also have 4 games, but that seems like a different animal so I didn’t look at them.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As you say ...
3 out 4 visiting teams won on WildCard weekend; then all 4 home teams won in the divisional round. The there was a split in the Championship Games. So in ’04 the Home Teams went 6-4.
by jctess on Jan 8, 2010 4:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
but a few road teams always win in wild card i like the jets because i want to see how the bengels handle pressre dal has to show me someting i do not trust ne without weiker and gb is a super bowl sleeper zona dont have boliner q and d-r-c q
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule reseident broncos fan for ap lol denver will rise again
by j-man on Jan 8, 2010 2:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
play off football, and then olympic hockey
the 2 greatest of all sporting events
by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Jan 8, 2010 3:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not even a huge soccer fan, but the World Cup is pretty awesome
I’ve been converted to being a fan of it…. If you haven’t checked it out, give it a shot. Speaking to everyone out there….
But hard to argue with your two picks!
I’m also big on Wimbledon, the French Open, and the U.S. Open, but that’s because I’m obviously a big tennis fan. I think the World Cup and NFL playoff football are probably more consistently up there, if one’s a fan of those sports. (And Olympic hockey can be pretty phenomenal, too….)
by jctess on Jan 8, 2010 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can attest
That following all these events is pretty awesome. But in case you haven’t read my profile lately:
Drinking Fan with a Sports problem.
Usually in the international sports though my interest is almost purely based on the Americans. Even though I can appreciate the other athletes and still watch the finals of the events, it’s never as fun as when the home team is involved, even in the individual events like Tennis. At least for me.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Jan 8, 2010 4:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
almost
nfl playoffs, world cup, ncaa mens basketball tournament. playoff hockey??? and at the very bottom, college football and the bcs
by SoCalCMH on Jan 9, 2010 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, Yeah: MARCH MADNESS, BABY!
How could we have left that out?!
by jctess on Jan 9, 2010 9:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now your explanation of zone pass coverage in the 3/4 defense makes
You were so baked you thought you were Dick Jauron
by RamCharger on Jan 8, 2010 7:35 PM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
My picks:
NYJ: Simply put, Darrelle Revis has matured into the best shutdown corner in the league (sorry Asomugha and QJ). He ate Ochocinco’s lunch last week and there’s nothing to say he won’t do it again. Mark Sanchez can make the good throws— not win the game with the team on his shoulders, but if it’s kept close by the Jets D and running game he’ll lead New York to at least one playoff victory.
Eagles: John made a great point that the Cowboys looked as though they had given up against Philly last week, with very little creativity on defense. McNabb blasted us for nearly 500 yards when we couldn’t establish the blitz— if the Cowboys and their mediocre secondary can’t it will be a long day for them.
Ravens: I think the loss of Wes Welker makes all the difference. Julian Edelman is a guy who could get rattled after being nailed a few times by Lewis and Reed and start hearing footsteps when coming across the middle. From there on it turns into a head-to-head matchup between Flacco-Clayton and Brady-Moss (and McGahee/Rice-Maroney/Faulk). Call it a gut feeling, but I think the Ravens win an upset.
Cardinals: I laughed my ass off at that ‘99 Warner spiel, but it’s absolutely true. The possiblity exists, no matter how remote, that Warner and Fitzgerald make beautiful music together— and Steve Breaston isn’t chopped liver either. The absence of Rogers-Cromartie and Boldin makes this a hard game for them to win (or at least, harder) but I think it’s well within the realm of possibility.
Banned from Arrowhead Pride... and Music City Miracles certainly don't like me very much, either.
"Ah act the way ah feel." --Elvis Presley
by StrangeBroP25 on Jan 8, 2010 9:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bengals: will show up to defend their pride
Cowboys: are more consistent if less dangerous than the eagles
Patriots: are a better team, better coached
Cardinals: I like the underdog here
by Bluelightning on Jan 9, 2010 12:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
THREE ROADIES???
Home field advantage is somewhat overrated, but I don’t think the Pats will be the only team to walk off their home field victorious. And don’t forget that this is the first playoff game for both Jets QB Sanchez and Packers QB Rodgers. I’ll go with Carson and the Bengals, and Warner and the Cards.
by SoCalCMH on Jan 9, 2010 12:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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