Serious Business: 1/27 Chargers Links
by Richard Wade on Jan 27, 2010 2:00 AM PST
in Daily Links
29 comments
FBO: Pro Bowl snubs and mistakes
Nate Kaeding listed among the undeserving because "we know field goal accuracy isn't really a consistent skill."
Chargers Chatting With Prospects At The 2010 Senior Bowl
The San Diego Chargers are in attendance and have already started visiting with prospects. While not always a true indication of legitimate interest, the Chargers do have a history of drafting players whom they've scouted first-hand down at this event.
Stat of the Day: Pass Tackles for Linebackers
Kevin Burnett ranks 10th with a 52% Stop Rate on Complete Passes and 12th with 16 Stops on Complete Passes.
'Gifted' LaDainian Tomlinson blazed new NFL trail in 2000s - USATODAY.com
Tomlinson was the unanimous selection among USA TODAY's panel as the NFL's best running back of the 2000s.
Ricky Byers Needs Your Help and He Needs It Now! - NASCAR Ranting and Raving
Ricky is a 2-time Cancer survivor - he has beaten this horrible disease twice and now he wants to beat it to the ground and stamp it out with your help.
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So, in Football Outsiders estimation....
Wade Richey is a better kicker than Nate Kaeding.
I wish these guys could see past their stats sometimes.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
Also....
Does this mean Burnett is better than Cooper, even with limited playing time?
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Jan 27, 2010 5:40 AM PST up reply actions
Better against the pass.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Jan 27, 2010 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
But I thought we already knew that.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Jan 27, 2010 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
Wade Richey
Would have to have been good at kickoffs for that to be true. Unfortunately he never learned that you’re not supposed to kick out of bounds.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Kaeding will do great
he won’t be under pressure.
If you ask me, Kaeding’s the best when not under pressure…when there’s pressure he’s one of the worst. He should take a lesson or two from guys like Carney or John Kasay on how to stay cool.
That's pretty much bullshit.
It would be one thing if kickers didn’t show consistency from one year to the next. But they do. It’s clearly a repeatable skill. I don’t know what the hell they’re thinking.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 27, 2010 8:44 AM PST reply actions
They hate the Chargers
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Jan 27, 2010 8:54 AM PST up reply actions
It appears so.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 27, 2010 8:58 AM PST up reply actions
Just Norv Turner
Football Outsides has more in common with SOSD commentators than anyone else on the internet. Good authority though, Richard and Wonko.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jan 27, 2010 9:20 AM PST up reply actions
There's a difference between buying their statistics and their analysis.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 27, 2010 9:22 AM PST up reply actions
FO's statistics hate the Chargers because...
A) They don’t see the following as repeatable:
- FG Kicking
- Penalty discipline on offense
B) They undervalue the following:
- Punting on teams with explosive offenses
- Punting on teams with better pass defense than run defense
- Ball-control (hard not to undervalue, as it’s unfathomably important)
C) They overvalue the following:
- Early-down rush success on teams with multidimensional passing offenses
- Run-stopping on teams with good punting
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 27, 2010 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Poor choice of wording on A)
Should be:
They have evidence that the following are not repeatable
or
Their studies have shown that the following are not repeatable
It’s not so much a belief as a result of extensive research.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
It's a belief, alright.
It may be a belief as the result of extensive research… but a justified belief is a belief nonetheless.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 27, 2010 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Besides, I used the verb “see” which implies some sort of empirical process.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jan 27, 2010 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Wrong
You’re assuming they are right without any proof that shows such. That is, they thing you are trying to prove is assumed in your premises. Begging the question, as it were.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jan 28, 2010 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
I read the proof
Like 3 or 4 years ago. This is not breaking news that kickers field goal percentage is unreliable/unrepeatable.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I think
The research was originally done in one of their books, so I can’t paste a link to it. Here’s one to a followup that they wrote in the New York Times and the comments that they added to it on their site.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Since I don't have insider I can't read the article
but my guess would be they’re going off their special teams statistics, which didn’t have the Chargers very good this year. The thing is, most of that comes from the fact that our coverage units, kick and punt, weren’t very good. I suppose you can blame a little of it on Nate’s kickoffs, but he’s been doing it 6 years now and we used to have pretty good special teams, so I don’t think that’s much of a factor. It’s absolutely inarguable that field goal kicking isn’t a repeatable skill, and Nate is one of the best ever at it.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 27, 2010 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
Here's what I think
I think that the ability to kick for a consistently high percentage (85%+) is not a repeatable skill for most NFL caliber kickers. However, I think there is a really, really small minority that actually can do it. It’s so small though that it can’t be measured very well yet. It also gets lost in the noise because these kickers have a hard time leading the league in FG% since the other, more volatile kickers will do it more often since their percentages fluctuate so much. Go take a look at Neil Rackers, Matt Stover and Adam Vinatieri and then check out our boy Nate. The first 3 our some of the best in the NFL during the 90s and led the league at difference points in FG percentage, but they are all over the place. Nate somehow is pretty consistently good outside of his rookie year (but it’s a small sample size).
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I just started browsing for other respected kickers
Trying to find someone like Nate. I looked at Jason Hanson, Mike Vanderjagt, Gary Anderson, John Carney, Jeff Wilkins, Norm Johnson, Jason Elam, Al Del Greco, Jeff Reed, etc and they all fluctuate a lot more than Kaeding has. They all have multiple years where they dip into the low 70s% and sometimes the 60s%.
The one guy that was kind of close was Ryan Longwell. He only had two years under 80% (both were under 75% as well, with one under 65%). Even he though isn’t as good as Kaeding as Kaeding has been. Kaeding is special like that… so far.
(Note: even with the 3 misses in the playoffs, Kaedings % doesn’t dip below 84% for the year. Pretty darn good when you look at all those other “flakes”. It is however his lowest total percentage for a season that wasn’t his rookie year, which was 77.8%)
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
The fact that he is so consistent
is what makes the play off misses so weird to me. It makes me think that the added importance (or pressure) of the kicks does get to him a little. I don’t have the numbers in front of me right now but I think he is something like %56 in the post season, with a large number of his made field goals being not much longer than extra points. I think his longest fg in the post season is around 40 yds.
I am not in the anti Nate group, he is a great kicker and there is no way that he is going anywhere. It is just interesting to look at his post season kicking numbers compared to his regular season numbers.
I know its a somewhat small sample size, and you could say it is just chance that his misses have come in the post season, but I think it might be more than that.
Kickers this year
Kickers are making 57.7 percent of their attempts in the playoffs, down from 81.3 percent in the regular season.
Again, the entire NFL converted 81.3 percent of all field goals this year, and the gentlemen who kicked into the postseason made 85.2 of their field goals.
I also think it’s funny that both times the Jets beat the Chargers in the playoffs they did so with help from our kicker missing field goals. Then, the next week, the Jets are hurt by their kicker missing field goals.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Good Article
Perhaps there are a lot of kickers who can’t handle the pressure of post season kicks.
Note: If you throw out Kaedings 0-3 if does bump the current post season percentage up to %66. Still not great.
Kaeding tore his groin practicing for the Pro Bowl
this in addition to his post-season failures, it looks like we may end up having to waste a draft pick on a kicker.
by boltsgamedayfootball on Jan 27, 2010 11:22 PM PST up reply actions
Unlikely
Kickers don’t usually come from draft picks. Kaeding was a rare exception.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Because he is an adult
and adults get to do some things that children don’t. When you are all grown up you can use bad words too, if you choose.
As for now, eat your veggies, do your homework and get to bed.
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