Predicting the Score by the Numbers

In this playoff addition of Predicting the Score by the Numbers we look to see if the Bolts high-powered offence can get past the Jets stingy defense.  To see who the numbers say should win please click below.

During the regular season the Jets have scored on average 21.8 points per game and allowed an average of 14.8 points per game.   The Jets opponents scored 21.4 points and allowed 21.1 points per game on average.   If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Jets scored 0.8 points per game over their opponent's average and allowed 6.6 fewer points per game their opponent's average.

Points For

Points Against

Jets

21.8

14.8

Texans

24.2

20.8

Patriots

26.7

17.8

Titans

22.1

25.1

Saints

31.9

21.3

Dolphins

22.5

24.4

Bills

16.1

20.4

Raiders

12.3

23.7

Dolphins

22.5

24.4

Jaguars

18.1

23.8

Patriots

26.7

17.8

Carolina

19.7

19.2

Bills

16.1

20.4

Bucs

15.2

25.0

Falcons

22.7

20.3

Colts

26.0

19.2

Bengals

19.1

18.2

Average

21.4

21.0

Adjustment

0.8

-6.6

 

During the regular season the Chargers scored 28.4 points per game and allowed 20.0 points per game on average, while their opponents have scored an average of 20.5 points per game and allowed 21.9 points per game on average.  If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers scored 6.5 more points per game than their opponent's average and are giving up 0.5 fewer points per game than their opponent's average.

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

28.4

20.0

Raiders

12.3

23.7

Ravens

24.4

16.3

Dolphins

22.5

24.4

Steelers

23.0

20.2

Broncos

20.4

20.2

Chiefs

18.4

26.5

Raiders

12.3

23.7

Giants

25.1

26.7

Eagles

26.8

21.1

Broncos

20.4

20.2

Chiefs

18.4

26.5

Browns

15.3

23.4

Cowboys

22.6

15.6

Bengals

19.1

18.2

Titans

22.1

25.1

Redskins

16.6

21.0

Average

20.5

21.9

Adjustment

6.5

-0.5

 

If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week's game you get the following:

 

Jets

The Jets scored on average 21.8 points, the Chargers allowed 0.5 fewer points than their opponent's average, the Jets should score 21.3 points.

The Jets allow on average 14.8 points, the Chargers scored on average 6.5 points higher than average, the Jets should allow 21.3 points.

 

Chargers

The Chargers scored on average 28.4 points, the Jets allowed 6.6 fewer points than their opponent's average, Chargers should score 21.8 points.

The Chargers allowed on average 20.0 points, the Jets score on average 0.8 more points than their opponent's average, Chargers should allow 20.8 points.

 

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

21.8

20.8

Jets

21.3

21.3

 

If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:

Chargers 22

Jets 21

Go Bolts!

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