Chargers-Raiders Success & Stop Rates
by Richard Wade on Sep 16, 2009 6:00 AM PDT
in San Diego Chargers Statistics
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PrintThis game, as the final score would suggest, was rather evenly contested. Both offenses were successful on only about 40% of the plays they ran and really only particularly successful for one quarter each. The Raiders came out of the gate fast and dominated offensively for the first quarter defensively for the first three. Unfortunately for Raider fan, the Chargers defense shut them down for the final three quarters and when it needed to in the fourth quarter the Chargers offense kicked into gear and was nigh unstoppable.
Looking at the splits, the Chargers were equally ineffective offensively on first through third down. The defense was stifling on first and second, but had trouble getting off the field on third down allowing Oakland to convert half of it's chances. Teams that play significantly better or worse on third down than on first and second tend to regress back toward their overall performance level. This bodes well for the Chargers defense as they move forward. It's also comforting to see that as the game progressed the Chargers improved across the board suggesting adjustments were made and that those adjustments were the correct ones.
If we turn our focus to the individual player level, we see that the Chargers' receivers and tight end were successful while the runningbacks struggled. This is as much a reflection of the performance of the offensive line as anything. There was relatively little room to run for Sproles and Tomlinson, the beautifully blocked last running play excepted, and Rivers when given time (he was sacked three times) found the open man or dumped the ball off. Both the lack of run blocking and the ineffective dump offs conspired to keep the San Diego runners' numbers down.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers basically shut out Oakland's receivers not named Zach Miller. Even when given time to find the open man, JaMarcus Russell either couldn't find him or missed badly outside of the horribly blown coverage on 4th & 14 late in the game. The Oakland running game which had seemed so effective while listening to the announcers rave about it proved to be ineffective outside of third down and the most unfortunate first quarter.
The Chargers' leader in stops was unsurprisingly also their leading tackler, inside linebacker Stephen Cooper, who had more stops than any other Charger had tackles. Number two on the squad was Ogemdi Nwagbuo who also had the only sack of the night. Cason, Dobbins and Merriman were the only other Charger defenders with more than one stop to their name.
Chargers Offensive Success Rates:
| Overall | 42.6% | 26/61 |
| Pass | 43.6% | 17/39 |
| Run | 40.9% | 9/22 |
| 1st Down | 40.7% | 11/27 |
| 2nd Down | 45.5% | 10/22 |
| 3rd Down | 41.7% | 5/12 |
| 1stPass | 38.5% | 5/13 |
| 1stRun | 42.9% | 6/14 |
| 2ndPass | 43.8% | 7/16 |
| 2ndRun | 50.0% | 3/6 |
| 3rdPass | 50.0% | 5/10 |
| 3rdRun | 0.0% | 0/2 |
| 1st Quarter | 12.5% | 1/8 |
| 2nd Quarter | 42.9% | 6/14 |
| 3rd Quarter | 25.0% | 5/20 |
| 4th Quarter | 73.7% | 14/19 |
| 1stPass | 20.0% | 1/5 |
| 1stRun | 0.0% | 0/3 |
| 2ndPass | 33.3% | 3/9 |
| 2ndRun | 60.0% | 3/5 |
| 3rdPass | 23.1% | 3/13 |
| 3rdRun | 28.6% | 2/7 |
| 4thPass | 83.3% | 10/12 |
| 4thRun | 57.1% | 4/7 |
| Chambers (Rec) | 0.0% | 0/1 |
| Floyd (Rec) | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| Gates (Rec) | 55.6% | 5/9 |
| Jackson (Rec) | 57.1% | 4/7 |
| Naanee (Rec) | 66.7% | 4/6 |
| Sproles (Rec) | 42.9% | 3/7 |
| Tomlinson (Rec) | 0.0% | 0/3 |
| Sproles (Run) | 44.4% | 4/9 |
| Tomlinson (Run) | 38.5% | 5/13 |
Chargers Defensive Stop Rates:
| Overall | 59.4% | 38/64 |
| Pass | 62.5% | 20/32 |
| Run | 56.3% | 18/32 |
| 1st Down | 63.0% | 17/27 |
| 2nd Down | 63.6% | 14/22 |
| 3rd Down | 50.0% | 7/14 |
| 4th Down | 0.0% | 0/1 |
| 1stPass | 66.7% | 8/12 |
| 1stRun | 60.0% | 9/15 |
| 2ndPass | 55.6% | 5/9 |
| 2ndRun | 69.2% | 9/13 |
| 3rdPass | 70.0% | 7/10 |
| 3rdRun | 0.0% | 0/4 |
| 4thPass | 0.0% | 0/1 |
| 1st Quarter | 27.8% | 5/18 |
| 2nd Quarter | 76.2% | 16/21 |
| 3rd Quarter | 83.3% | 10/12 |
| 4th Quarter | 53.8% | 7/13 |
| 1stPass | 40.0% | 2/5 |
| 1stRun | 23.1% | 3/13 |
| 2ndPass | 66.7% | 8/12 |
| 2ndRun | 88.9% | 8/9 |
| 3rdPass | 83.3% | 5/6 |
| 3rdRun | 83.3% | 5/6 |
| 4thPass | 55.6% | 5/9 |
| 4thRun | 50.0% | 2/4 |
| Bush (Rec) | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| Heyward-Bey (Rec) | 100.0% | 4/4 |
| Higgins (Rec) | 100.0% | 5/5 |
| McFadden (Rec) | 50.0% | 2/4 |
| Miller (Rec) | 16.7% | 1/6 |
| Murphy (Rec) | 55.6% | 5/9 |
| Stewart (Rec) | 0.0% | 0/1 |
| Watkins (Rec) | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| Bush (Run) | 66.7% | 8/12 |
| Higgins (Run) | 0.0% | 0/1 |
| McFadden (Run) | 58.8% | 10/17 |
| Russell (Run) | 0.0% | 0/2 |
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Comments
Wow
Outside of Miller, who was really the responsibility of Burnett, the secondary was awesome.
Contrary to the decent YPC, this seems like it was another down game by Tomlinson.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
Tomlinson's success rate
doesn’t match his YPC, because his late runs went for extra yardage.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 16, 2009 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions
"extra yardage"?
Is there such a thing when you don’t play in the 4th quarter?
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 16, 2009 6:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I haven't watched the game again, but I'm going to with an eye for this
but I didn’t get the impression that Burnett was being asked to cover Miller a whole lot. From what I saw, he was being given to the safeties, who couldn’t get the job done.
Greg Maddux for manager.
by Zach (maestro876) on Sep 16, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed...
he did seem to lose him once IIRC, but the safeties bit hard (I’m looking at you, Hart) this week
I'd rather not
be looking at Hart, unless it’s on the sidelines.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Sep 17, 2009 5:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Most of the time I saw Miller catching the ball
He was taking advantage of Gregory.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
I mean, yardage beyond the criterion for "success."
A 12-yard gain on 1st down is one successful play for an average of 12 yards. Two consecutive six-yard gains would be two successful plays for an average of 3 yards in the same situation.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 16, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Oops. meant an average of 6 yards.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 16, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
“awesome secondary” or terrible qb? I think the latter.
by BORTZ on Sep 16, 2009 7:13 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Don't knock Burnett too hard.
This team has had TE-stopping problems for quite awhile, and Miller is a particularly effective TE. We won’t face another TE of that caliber until Dallas.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 16, 2009 6:34 AM PDT reply actions
Todd Heap on Sunday
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 16, 2009 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions
He's old
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 16, 2009 7:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Same age as Gates
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 16, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Heap lover
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 16, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I have a Heap Jersey
HEEEEEEAP.
Used to go to lots of Ravens games. He hasn’t been healthy for at least 2 years.
Did anyone see Heap against the Chiefs last week?
Because I did. And he looked healthy, productive and read to rip up the Chargers D over the middle.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
And he will
unless the Chargers can figure something out. Burnett is actually good in coverage. He proved that with the Cowboys. They didn’t let him go because he sucked, they let him go because they figured he was a luxury they couldn’t afford. They need to give Burnett more coverage assignments vs. TEs.
Greg Maddux for manager.
by Zach (maestro876) on Sep 16, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I still think Burnett can cover him.
I guess we’ll see. That will be critical. If we want to have any success against Baltimore, we’ll need to build a lead, and Heap is pretty much what Baltimore has at hand to answer that.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 16, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly what I saw.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 16, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Chambers only had ONE target?
Why do we even bother a roster spot for him? We have plenty of younger WRs who’d love to take his spot.
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 16, 2009 7:31 AM PDT reply actions
In his defense
Oakland’s 2nd CB is almost as good as Asomugha.
I was surprised nobody seem to respond to my post-game question of “Should Naanee replace Chambers?”
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 16, 2009 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I will repky right now with a HUGE YEEESSSS!!!
NEVER MISS A GAME,WHETHER BY BEING THERE OR WATCHING AT HOME,FO SHO!!!
With all the options on the Chargers offense
Someone is always going to be lacking in the boxscore. I’m pretty sure if you look at last year’s numbers that will hold up. Someone usually has the most (most likely Gates or Jackson), someone will get a decent share (again, either Gates or Jackson), someone will get dump offs (most likely Sproles or LT), someone will make or two catches (Floyd, Naanee, Manu, Chambers) and all the others will basically be invisible.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
CC is money
and has been since he joined the Chargers. This may well be his last year in SD, but he’s still valuable in this offense. You wanna get rid of a WR, look at Osgood.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Sep 17, 2009 5:03 AM PDT up reply actions
They’re both gone after this season.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 17, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Naane should join Chambers
I think it has become fairly evident when you take inventory of the personnel and analyze the strengths of the offense that the Chargers are not an effective power, three yards and a cloud of dust type of team yet they still come out, week after agonizing week, and try to be something they clearly are not. It seems to me that one of the easiest jobs in sports is to be the Defensive Coordinator who goes up against this Norv Turner offense, at least early in the season, early in the game. The Raiders had months to prepare for the Chargers and so imagine their delight when the Chargers came out and did exactly what they thought they would do. No first down play action, no reverse, no halfback pass (seriously, where did that go? We can’t even show that once in a blue moon to keep someone honest?), no nothing that had the Raiders confused and on their heels. We have outstanding receivers (real excited about the Naane era) who create mismatches all over the field yet we only run some semblance of a spread offense when our backs are against the wall. This team doesn’t need tricks or gimmicks—they’re too good for that—but how about deviating from an all-too-predictable pattern? If they wanted to run their backs into a brick wall every first and second down play they should have kept Michael Turner.
by Rocket Surgery on Sep 16, 2009 8:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Strongly agree.
Especially against Baltimore. If Haloti Ngata is working against injured players or backups you need to scheme to make anything happen. Manu or Hester plus Gates, VJ, Take Your Pick, and Take Another Pick would be great: 6 guys in to block means the Ravens will have to rush at least 4, and SD just has too many weapons for 7 defenders to cover 4 guys against the #17 P.R. Machine. And there are a lot of deadly 4-man combinations on that roster.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 16, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Norv's Offense IS Unimaginative at best !!!
I agree with Rocket Surgery…. Run LT (2 yds on first down), Drop off pass to LT or Sproles (3 yds 2nd down) then try to find gates over the middle (3rd down), it works sometimes but the offense is TOO PREDICTABLE !!!
What did happen to the halfback pass? We haven’t used it since ‘06 that I can remember and it used to be almost a sure thing on the goalline… C’mon Norv, lets shake things up a bit. The Offensive line needs to get more consistent… we need to use Gates, Jackson and Sproles… hopefully we can develop a running game again, but if not… let Rivers loose, look what happened for Brees when he was unleashed.
Week 1, 2007, actually
was the last halfback pass.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Sep 16, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey... I was close
what happened with that pass?
Do we really need to open it up
in week 1 against the Raiders, who the Chargers should beat using just the basics?
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
by Axion on Sep 16, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
This is just a ridiculous argument. In Norv Turner’s offense last year, Philip Rivers led the league in TD passes and threw for over 4,000 yards. The offense is not the problem on this team. They were second in the league in points scored just a year ago.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Sep 16, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
results?
Rivers won’t even get close to that memory. because from what i saw, the $100 million dollar man spent a lot of time running for his life, or under a 300lbs lineman. and that didn’t happen just in the 1st quater, that was all night long.
last season Rivers got that title because thay “had” to thow it. they were almoast playing from behind, for lack of a better term, due to slow starts, couldn’t stop the pass, and TE’s. and for the record, Norv’s Offense has slowy been declining in wins since he took over. we got into the playoff’s last season because denver sucked for three straight games.
Rivers was sacked twice in the first 13 passing plays. He was sacked once in the final 26 passing plays. On their final two drives, Rivers completed 10 of 12 passes, with all 10 completions picking up at least 7 yards and 8 of the 10 going for at least 10 yards. This was with two second second stringers in on the offensive line, one of whom had never before played the position he was lining up at. Nothing about that game suggests that the offense is doomed. They came out slow and an energized Raider team initially took it to them, but they made adjustments and even fighting injuries blew Oakland’s doors off on the final two drives to win the game. Under Turner the last two years the team has gotten better from half to half and game to game. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue to be the case.
If the offense “had to throw,” then that should have made it more difficult for them to do so. When the defense knows what’s coming it’s easier for them to stop it. Despite knowing that the Chargers were going to throw the ball all over the field last year, they couldn’t do anything about it. Your assertion that “Norv’s Offense has slowly been declining in wins” is asinine. The offense has been excellent under Turner. That they have won fewer regular season games under Turner has more to do with a declining defense and injuries than Turner. The Chargers got into the playoffs last year because they won their last four games which they only needed to do because they had a win earlier in the season taken away from them by Hochuli. During Turner’s tenure with the Chargers the only coach with more playoff wins than him is New York’s Tom Coughlin.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Sep 16, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Potential
What bothers me, and other Chargers fans, is the potential we see in the 4th quarter. If the offense can be that good every time it needs to be (and it’s not always against prevent defense), why can’t it be that good all the time?
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 16, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Rivers said in the postgame interview
That they practice the 2 minute offense more than any team in the league. I think the offensive is most comfortable running the set of plays that you would use when you are in a 4th quarter comeback scenario.
This didn’t use to be the case. In 2006 they were one of the worst teams in the 4th quarter and one of the best in 1st. In 2007 those numbers flipped. They are funny that way.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
I'd love it if they would go to the no-huddle the whole game.
Especially this weekend and at Pittsburgh. That’d get that defense tired out.
Greg Maddux for manager.
by Zach (maestro876) on Sep 17, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
Rivers is every bit as smart as Manning or Brady (who used to run the no-huddle often).
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 17, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
downside of no-huddle is reduced TOP
Running it the whole game would put a lot of pressure on the D.
Using the pass to set up the run is a better bet, with maybe a no-huddle thrown in every series or so to keep the opposing D off balance.
Running the no-huddle doesn’t mean snapping the ball any earlier if you don’t want to.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Sep 17, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly
look at Peyton.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 17, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Just as the worm has turned
regarding the WR unit. Not that long ago we were hard-pressed to have any viable receivers beyond Gates & LT.
Lends all the more credence to John’s pass to run credo.
As I’ve said before …. with Brees, I always wondered if we’d hold our lead. With PR, I seldom think that we’re done.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Sep 17, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
People can bash the play calling and Norv all they want, but the offense has performed great under him. I have not been a huge Norv fan, but it is hard to argue with the results on offense.
I give a Chargers' game ball
to Jamarcus Russell. Without his inept play, the outcome would have likely been different.
A Jeff Garcia-led Raider team would have won Monday night. Sad but true.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
Although Russell missed his receivers all night, he also didn’t fumble the ball or throw any interceptions except the one to Jammer that everyone saw was the receiver’s fault (hail mary’s don’t count). Garcia threw 2 picks against the Chargers last season. So you don’t know for sure that he would’ve been better.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Sep 17, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Cooper sure wishes he could hold on to that goal line pick at the end of the game
Even if it isn’t an actual pick, I’d count that one against Jamarcus too.
A QB’s ball security is important, but I’ll take Bret Farve over Russell any day, and Farve has not had the best of reputations for taking care of the ball.
Russell lost that game for his team, just about any other QB and back up QB in the league gets the Raiders a “W” in that situation. Heck I was on edge the whole time the Raider second stringer was in there. I kept yelling at the TV… “Hey look Russell is ready to go back in! He’s ready! Get him back in there!”
by Trendsearcher on Sep 17, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
My feelings as well
He gets my Charger game ball.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Sep 17, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Garcia is much more accurate
I believe that he would have picked us apart, primarily using Miller & McFadden.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Sep 17, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Feel free to believe what you want, but you would have seen completely different game plans from both teams had Garcia been playing. There’s no reason to believe with any level of certainty that the Chargers would have lost.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Sep 17, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions
We might have had different plans with Garcia
But once the Raiders saw that great success they had running the ball they would have opted to shift more of their plays towards the run. And then the few remaining pass plays would have been more successful with Garcia.
Success in the run generally has to improve your chances in the passing game.
by Trendsearcher on Sep 17, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s not like the Raiders had success running the ball the whole game. They were basically shut down completely after their second drive of the game.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Sep 17, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions
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