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San Diego Chargers' "At Risk" Players

Alright, book report alert.  I'm about three-quarters of the way through John Feinstein's Next Man Up, where he tags along for a ride on the Baltimore Ravens 2004 season.  You know that season.  Deion Sanders, Jamal Lewis going to prison, etc.  It's been a great book and I can't wait to finish it and review it for you guys.

One of the best things about reading the book is understanding the cross-over of roster spots.  Jonathan Ogden had gotten injured and was going to miss the first game of the season.  Because of this, the team needed to keep an Offensive Tackle that they had planned on cutting and had to cut a special teams player (Harold Morrow) that they had wanted to keep.  Sometimes you don't realize that a roster spot taken for another position can be a roster spot taken away from your position.

What I want to do, now that we're starting to get a clearer image of the team, is try to figure out which players are "At Risk" and why.

 

 

Star-divide

Let's start with Stephen's initial effort to predict a 53 man roster for the Chargers.  Here it is broken down by position.
  • QB - Rivers, Volek, Whitehurst
  • RB - Tomlinson, Sproles, Johnson, Bennett
  • FB - Hester
  • WR - Jackson, Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, Davis
  • TE - Gates, Manumaleuna, Wilson
  • OT - McNeil, Clary, Shelton, Dombrowski
  • OG/C - Dielman, Hardwick, Forney, Mruczkowski, Vasquez
  • DL - Castillo, Williams, Bingham, Cesaire, Martin, Scott
  • OLB - Merriman, Phillips, Tucker, English, Applewhite
  • ILB - Cooper, Burnett, Siler, Dobbins, Beckwith
  • S - Weddle, Hart, Oliver, Gregory, Ellison
  • CB - Jammer, Cromartie, Cason, Gordon
  • K/P/LS - Kaeding, Scifres, Binn

Not a bad list.  I think there's a couple of people left off that shouldn't have been and a couple of people left on that could go.  Here's some of the players on the Chargers roster that you may think are safe but are "at risk" to be cut.

Clinton Hart

Carrying 5 safeties is ridiculous.  One of them is going to have to go.  I think Gregory makes the team no matter what and the real battle is between Hart and Ellison.  With a great camp I think Ellison starts the season as the backup SS, splitting time with Gregory.  With a less-than-stellar camp, I think Ellison gets cut.  One thing that I don't think I've ever mentioned here is my philosophy about players that missed a lot of time in college due to injuries: "If you can't stay healthy in college, you probably can't stay healthy in the pros."  The players are bigger, stronger, faster, etc.  What Ellison needs is 4 great preseason games, a handful of great practice days and to stay healthy the whole way through.  If he does that, Clinton is gone.

Kassim Osgood

Two-time Pro Bowlers don't just grow on trees, but Stephen doesn't even have Kassim making the roster.  I disagree with that, but I still think he'll need to prove himself in camp.  There's a lot of very good college LBs in camp this year that will be going all-out on special teams to try and take his spot.  I know a lot of people don't like Kassim's complaining, but it's mostly contained to the offseason.  I think KO just hangs around with his boys, that know that he's 6'5" with soft hands and great speed, and they tell him that the team is screwing with him.  At least he knows that when camp starts it's time to take orders.

Scott Mruczkowski

The man with the unpronounceable last name (merch-COW-ski).  He's done a good job of filling holes for the Chargers for the past few seasons, but his time may be up.  Forney or Vasquez will be the primary backup OG and Tyronne Green will be pushing for the spot of backup C.  Considering the team has always had a backup Center besides Mruczkowski, I'm going to assume that it's not his best position.  I think Green wins this spot easily.  Keep in mind that the Chargers typically have all but one or two draft picks on the roster for week 1.

Cletis Gordon

I personally think Gordon's a good dimeback, but he did get burned quite a bit in the playoff game against the Steelers.  They were looking for him because he couldn't stay with their WRs.  I think he has a good chance at keeping his job, because Hughes sounds like he'd bring nothing to the table in terms of special teams (Gordon covers punts), but that doesn't mean he can survive with a bad camp.

Kris Wilson

The Chargers website has Wilson listed as a FB.  Is that a good thing or bad thing for him?  It could mean that he can play both TE and FB well and they just decided to list him there, or it could mean that the team told him he has no chance to make the team as a TE.  He has no chance of making the team as a FB either.  Not with Hester and Tolbert ahead of him.  From the little bit I've seen of him, I've really come to like Kory Sperry, the undrafted free agent TE from Colorado State.  He's 6'5" and has good hands.  He could be another Gates with the right coaching.  If Wilson makes the team it will be because of his blocking.

Brandyn Dombrowski

The backup Offensive Tackle position is packed.  There's L.J. Shelton, who is sure to make the team barring any injury, Corey Clark (who the Chargers still like), Dombrowski, and Dan Gay, who was a hot undrafted free agent.  Although Dombrowski has been pretty good, he's facing younger competition.  And although the team likes Jeromey Clary, they'd probably like somebody to be pushing him as well.  I could see Clark having a good camp and pushing Dombrowski off the roster.

David Binn

Look, I like David Binn as much as the next guy.  I don't think he's every had a bad snap in his career.  However, after playing 16 years in the league he's become rather expensive for a long snapper.  $1.5 million in 2008.  Also, he's not going to be around forever.  It's time to start looking for a successor.  If one of the guys looking for an Offensive Line spot can prove themselves to be a good long snapper, and a cheap alternative to Binn, the team may go that route.  It would provide a little bit more versatility as well since I don't think Binn has the skills to play any of the Offensive Line positions.

Do you have any thoughts about Bolts From The Blue?  Any tips you want to send our way?  Whenever you have something to say, don't hesitate to e-mail me directly.

Comment 26 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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David Binn isn't going anywhere.

They just extended him. Unless he gets hurt or suddenly forgets how to snap after 16 years, he’ll be on the team.

Greg Maddux for manager.

by Zach (maestro876) on Aug 4, 2009 9:00 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

good point

I think AJ has proven that he is not afraid to spend money and chew up roster spots for the sake of stability (see M Turner and D Sproles)

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Aug 4, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well

I made the point that it would save a few bucks (and yes, it might make more room to sign our big FAs so it might be worth it), but I also said that it would free up a roster spot. If someone like Green can be a long-snapper and a backup C/G, then we have another open slot on the roster. Right now it seems silly to be paying $1.5 mil a year and giving a roster spot to a guy that might be involved in 2 or 3 important players per game.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 4, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I love this stuff

I think the battles at the end of the 53 man roster are almost as interesting as the battles for starting positions. I think we need to throw Forney into the mix of guys who might get cut. I know he just signed a new contract (2 year, $4.8M,$2M guaranteed), but if he doesn’t beat out Vasquez, what does he really have to offer? He didn’t play at all last year. Mruckzokowski can play the position and is flexible enough to fill in at center as well, and is cheaper, and has been a security blanket for the coaches (they know they can count on Mooch to come off the bench and perform, I’m not sure they feel the same about Forney). If Forney doesn’t beat out Vasquez, then his upside is backup guard (he is 30 years old, so he isn’t getting any better) and he will be overpaid for that position (if he isn’t starting).

If Vasquez is starting and the coaches have to choose who to cut between Mooch, Forney, and a young guy like Green, I think they might choose to cut Forney…

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Aug 4, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions  

I disagree

I think out of those three guys (Mooch, Forney, Green), only one of them has the ability to be a starting OG in this league. Forney has proven that. Imagine if we cut Forney because he’s too expensive and then Vasquez or Dielman goes down with a serious injury. Now Mooch or Green is a major weakspot on the line.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 4, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

you might be right

but with only 53 roster spots there is always a tension between keeping a guy as a backup who will never be more than a backup and keeping someone as a backup who has more potential in future years but isn’t as good this year. Plus, Mooch did very well last year stepping in for Dielman after the phantom punch and bad burrito incidents. And Forney hasn’t even seen the field as a Charger.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Aug 4, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

My bet

is Green and Forney stay; Forney could be a starter and Green has long term upside. It probably bodes ill for Green that he got beat in the one-on-one’s, but still…

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Aug 4, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Tucker is fighting as a high priced backup as well.

It very well may come down to going light at some positions to cover weakness in other areas of the team (Cough, cough… O-line & FB). With Merriman back and English performing well it seems like they could best absorb the risk of exposure at LB. I could see only 8 spots not 10 (LB 4 inside and 4 outside).

Dobbins and Beckwith are going to have a great competition! I like Dobbins, but he has to show improvement in coverage and speed (his instincts and tackling are so good!) It will be neat to see what Beckwith can do at this level.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 4, 2009 9:22 AM PDT reply actions  

Eh

If you’re going with 4 OLBs, I think you need 5 ILBs. Typically our best special teams tacklers (Cooper, Dobbins) have been ILBs. That fifth guy could be Beckwith.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 4, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Beckwith is gonna have to show a lot.

I’m calling Burnett to win the starting job next to Cooper, and be an every-down linebacker.

Greg Maddux for manager.

by Zach (maestro876) on Aug 4, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Beckwith

All Darry has to show is that he’s a valuable special teams player. Burnett is going to start, I don’t think anyone doubt that, but Beckwith has to show potential and an ability to tackle if he wants to stay on the team.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 4, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

reading the article on chargers.com about Weddle sheds some light on how great it would be if both Cooper and Burnett are the starters and don’t come off the field. Last year we really didn’t have two ILBs we could trust on passing downs, so we ended up playing a lot of dime (6 DBs) with Weddle in the box as the other “LB” with Cooper. With Burnett and Cooper in on passing downs, we can play nickel (5 DBs) and Weddle can play more of the “center fielder” role that he excelled in during his rookie campaign, plus, we can be stronger against the chance of a run during a passing down.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Aug 4, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Beckwith has the pactice squad to fall back on...

Tucker does not. Tucker (4.1 million last year more this year) either takes a spot the first string, or he’ll be calling on our teams just like Matt. He’s not a marquee talent, and probably below average compared to the rest of the starters at IBL around the league. If Burnett takes the job like AJ thought he would when he signed him, Tucker is in a pickle.

I do trust Weddle’s judgment though… maybe its Siler (0.38 M last year) that is in trouble.

Personally if I’d like to see Applewhite inside. I don’t think he ever gets past those other OLB’s, and he could be a heck of a great coverage ILB ala Donnie Edwards! He could take the starting spot from one of those guys currently on the inside. With that edge rush, if the Chargers had a shut down LB that could cover the slant – forget about it! We’d set the record for sacks, or interceptions or both.

by Trendsearcher on Aug 4, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

What makes you tihnk

that Applewhite is a Donnie Edwards-caliber ILB? Can he cover TEs?

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 4, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mike Tolbert?

Seems like Mike Tolbert’s name is missing from the list at the top… the only FB listed is Hester.

by Burl Sifu on Aug 4, 2009 10:17 AM PDT reply actions  

Tolbert's probably not going to make the team

Hester is the starting FB, Manumaleuna and/or Kris Wilson can fill in if anything happens.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 4, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Feh

I liked Tolbert… I hope he shows something great in camp to maybe change some minds.

by Burl Sifu on Aug 4, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

His best chance

is to be a special teams beast.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 4, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmm....

Although that would make for a 54-man roster

by Burl Sifu on Aug 4, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

it is a little like one of those long skinny balloons at this point

if you squeeze it in one spot it puts pressure some where else. As John said, at this end of the 53 man roster it becomes less about position battles and more about the roster as a whole. Keeping an extra FB might mean one less LB.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Aug 4, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

My roster take

    * QB – Rivers, Volek, Whitehurst
    * RB – Tomlinson, Sproles, Johnson, Bennett
    * FB – Hester
    * WR – Jackson, Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, Davis * Don’t rule out Gary Banks in here, particularly if Davis continues to have a “tight quad”.
    * TE – Gates, Manumaleuna, Wilson * I can see Sperry beating out Wilson, especially if Manu can return to his pre-2008 blocking prowess
    * OT – McNeil, Clary, Shelton, Dombrowski * Dombrowski loses out to either Gay, Clark, or Muth. I could see 10 OL if Osgood gets the ax.
    * OG/C – Dielman, Hardwick, Forney, Mruczkowski, Vasquez * Green won’t last on the PS. IF he performs in TC, Mruc or Forney take the hit.
    * DL – Castillo, Williams, Bingham, Cesaire, Martin, Scott * I’m also watching Coleman & Grennan.
    * OLB – Merriman, Phillips, Tucker, English, Applewhite
    * ILB – Cooper, Burnett, Siler, Dobbins, Beckwith * I’ll be interested to see if Bakhtari does anything in TC this year. He’s a BIG kid.
    * S – Weddle, Hart, Oliver, Gregory, Ellison * Hart needs to go.
    * CB – Jammer, Cromartie, Cason, Gordon * Don’t be surprised if Cason takes Cro’s starting job. Cro could be seeing the end of his time as a Charger.
    * K/P/LS – Kaeding, Scifres, Binn * I have to agree about Binn. If someone else can handle LS duties AND play elsewhere, that’s the direction to take. Same applies to Osgood. It can make the difference in keeping an extra OL/DL/LB that we might well need later in the season.

If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!

Robert Hunter

by Buck Melanoma on Aug 5, 2009 3:08 AM PDT reply actions  

Disagreements

1. Cromartie’s job as a starting CB is safe. If he comes out of the gate and is terrible, he could lose his job, but so can anybody. Even with the broken hip last year I thought he was a little better than Cason.
2. I’m watching Coleman as well.
3. Word out of camp is that Hart and Gregory look great and could be used as a “SS by committee”.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 5, 2009 4:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I believe Bakhtari is an OLB

chargers have him at 6-3 285, which is OLB size in our 3-4

I don’t think he makes the 53 man, but hopefully he will spend another year maturing on our practice squad.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Aug 5, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I still think you guys are way off about Binn.

They just extended the guy. That’s not a move that says they’re looking in a new direction.

Greg Maddux for manager.

by Zach (maestro876) on Aug 5, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

True

I think I missed on this one. While I still stand behind my point that the team needs to eventually look for a successor that can be an effective backup OL as well, he’s not getting cut with a new extension.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Aug 5, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

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