Has Merriman Slipped Since his Steroid Suspension?

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Jul 24, 2009 7:00 AM PDT

So I'm listening to Mike Florio of profootballtalk.com being interviewed on one of the local radio stations and he says something that bugs me. He said that Shawne Merriman hasn't been the same player since he was suspended for steroids back in the middle of the 2006 season. The implication is that Merriman needs performance enhancing drugs to be the dominant player he has the reputation of being. Now that he is being tested more often, he isn't able to use performance enhancers and his play has suffered.

What Florio said bugged me because I hadn't noticed any drop off. Merriman still seemed to be a terror and someone opposing offenses always had to account for. The sack stats of an edge rusher tend to come in bursts with 0 for two weeks and 3 the next week, so a decline could be hidden in the "static-y" nature of the stats.

Here are his season by season stats:

Year	G	Tackles	Sacks
2005-06	15	57	10
2006-07	12	63	17
2007-08	15	68	12.5

There is a drop off in 2007, but he still put up some good numbers. Factor in a new head coach and defensive coordinator and the numbers don't looks so bad, but not really conclusive either way. If we really want to investigate a potential drop, I think we are going to need to look at the game by game logs and see if we can identify any trends.

Here are the game by game logs for Merriman's career. I've removed game #1 since he was inactive due to a rookie holdout, his four suspension games, and one game against Detroit in 2007 he didn't play in (I can't remember why)

Year	Week	Opp	Tackles	Sacks
2005	2	@ DEN	1	0
2005	3	NYG	2	0
2005	4	@ NWE	2	0
2005	5	PIT	2	1
2005	6	@ OAK	2	0
2005	7	@ PHI	5	1
2005	8	KAN	5	2
2005	9	@ NYJ	9	1
2005	11	BUF	4	2
2005	12	@ WAS	1	0
2005	13	OAK	6	0
2005	14	MIA	3	0
2005	15	@ IND	7	2
2005	16	@ KAN	5	0
2005	17	DEN	3	1
Year	Week	Opp	Tackles	Sacks
2006	1	@ OAK	6	3
2006	2	TEN	1	0
2006	4	@ BAL	2	1
2006	5	PIT	3	0.5
2006	6	@ SFO	7	1
2006	7	@ KAN	8	0
2006	8	STL	5	3
SUSPENSION
2006	13	@ BUF	6	2
2006	14	DEN	5	2
2006	15	KAN	6	0
2006	16	@ SEA	6	3.5
2006	17	ARI	8	1
2006	P1	NWE	2	1
Year	Week	Opp	Tackles	Sacks
2007	1	CHI	3	0
2007	2	@ NWE	5	2
2007	3	@ GNB	2	0
2007	4	KAN	10	1
2007	5	@ DEN	3	0
2007	6	OAK	6	2.5
2007	8	HOU	7	0
2007	9	@ MIN	5	0
2007	10	IND	3	0
2007	11	@ JAC	1	0
2007	12	BAL	7	1
2007	13	@ KAN	6	3
2007	14	@ TEN	5	2
2007	16	DEN	2	0
2007	17	@ OAK	3	1
2007	P1	TEN	4	1
2007	P2	@ IND	5	0
2007	P3	@ NEW	4	0
Year	Week	Opp	Tackles	Sacks
2008	1	CAR	2	0

Lotsa numbers. How about a chart that shows his sack stats and and a couple running averages to help us see any trends?

Click on the graph to see the detail. The black line with the points are his actual week to week sack numbers. The blue curvy line is his average sacks per week for the last 4 weeks. The green line is average for 8 weeks and the orange is the average for 16 weeks. The red vertical line is when his steroid suspension was.

Here is the same chart for tackles:

I don't see the drop off. Sacks are going to be erratic, but overall, Merriman has been pretty consistent over time. While I think the jury is still out on the post-injury Merriman, I don't think it is fair to say that Merriman has seen a drop off since his steroid suspension, the stats don't show it, and the respect from opposing offenses is still there.

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Rec'd

You have no idea how excited I was looking through those charts. All I saw when looking through the stats was the 4 games without a sack after the suspension. When I saw the charts I was completely convinced.

Charts are awesome.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Jul 24, 2009 7:25 AM PDT reply actions

It was the scheme

You can’t blame the car for not racing, if the driver decides not to press the gas. It was the Defensive Coordinator’s decision to drop him into coverage more frequently. We can’t expect too many sacks if the guy is back peddling in the secondary.

I think two box and whisker plots of his sack totals by game (before and after the suspension) would look almost identical. (I’d make the graph, but don’t think I could post it). Box and Whisker summarizes the string of events and may help show trends better.

Not sure if coverage stats are available (I think only passes defensed), but I think that comparison would be interesting pre-Cottrell and Cottrell era.

by Trendsearcher on Jul 24, 2009 8:17 AM PDT reply actions

I would tend to agree that

Shawne’s 2007 drop was due more to a defensive coordinator change than anything else. He still has spurts (6 sacks in three games mid 2007) that showed his skills are still top notch. I think the fact that Cotrell was let go last year also lends credence to Cotrell being part of the problem.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Jul 24, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Shawne missed the 2007 Detroit game

because of the injury he sustained the week previously at Tennessee.

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by Zach (maestro876) on Jul 24, 2009 9:12 AM PDT reply actions

Numbers dont show it all

I think there is a difference but there is no real way to gauge how much that difference is!
I didnt see him being as dominating in the fourth quarter as he was before the suspension. There was a time before the suspension when in the fourth he seemed to be almost unstoppable rushing the passer. Now that change may also be because teams are planning differently for him or a change in how the Chargers are using him. I think there had to be some difference or why would he risk his career using them. This wont even be a telling year because the defense as a whole isnt as good as it was before his suspension that was one of the best defenses I had seen in awhile!!

by DARKRAIDER on Jul 24, 2009 10:05 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Doesn't the juice matter too

If the situation is as he said it was. This was juice from an OTC supplement, not exactly Dianabol or Testosterone. How much of an edge do we think this Super Charged OJ gave him?

by Trendsearcher on Jul 24, 2009 10:13 AM PDT reply actions

The elephant in the room

is that HGH is as effective as any steroid and cannot be detected through any test currently. They caught Rodney Harrison with HGH because he purchased some from an online pharmacy in his own name, but otherwise it is still undetctable and very effective as a PED.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Jul 24, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions

HGH

I could be wrong, but I think HGH can be detected. They look for High HGH levels, ones above “normal”. The jury’s out on this years defense, but if they stay healthy; they could be one of the top defenses this year.

by irishlad on Jul 24, 2009 11:05 AM PDT reply actions

there was a blood test that they used during the olympics

but it didn’t catch anyone, so the consensus is that it isn’t as effective as it needs to be.

In addition, the NFLPA hasn’t agreed to blood testing for HGH (or any other PED or drug), just urine testing. and I don’t think there is a good urine test for HGH.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Jul 24, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions

No one has pointed out that he tested positive in August 2006

and passed every test after that. Meaning, the numbers after the suspension shouldn’t be the only ones considered. It’s reasonable to assume that he was “clean” for much of the 2006 season because his positive test occurred before the season even started. It’s hard to tell how long it took to cycle out of his system, but it’s definitely not as if he juiced from week 1 to 8, and stopped completely after that.

by 'Eaters on Jul 24, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs

clarification of the last sentence:

It’s not like he was juicing all the way up to week 8, he stopped in August following the positive test, and clean tests prove this.

There is a lot of misunderstanding about steroids and other PEDs, and that includes football analysts. When Merriman hurt his knee, I read someone say “just inject some HGH into that knee, that should clear it up.” When people know a player tested positive, they begin looking for signs of it everywhere, even in ways that steroids do not manifest.

by 'Eaters on Jul 24, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs