Philip Rivers is a player evoking many differences of opinion in fantasy circles. Last year he was a stud, leading the league in passer rating and touchdowns (34), while recording only 11 interceptions. He was a top 5 QB in pretty much every format and led many teams, including one of mine, to a championship.

Some expect a repeat performance. Some don't. They say he doesn't pass enough, that his extraordinarily high efficiency was a fluke and won't be repeated. They're right about one thing; that efficiency will be hard to repeat, but I'm not ready to dismiss last year as a fluke just yet, so I'm going to try to breakdown just why he was so good and why he can be that good again.

The Stats

The stats are clear. There was a big jump in Rivers' stats after relatively similar numbers in his first two seasons as a starter. Not only that, they were especially eye-popping when you realise just how well he produced per attempt. For starters, he matched Brees for touchdowns with 157 fewer attempts. Rivers beat league MVP, Peyton Manning, in QB rating, yards per attempt, yards, touchdowns and interceptions.

Why the improvement and high efficiency?

Many people have erroneously claimed that Rivers made those numbers by passing a lot more than he previously had before, when in actual fact, he had just 18 more attempts than both his previous two years. However, with the running game stuttering, the Chargers may well have had a higher pass play ratio than previous seasons.

This also meant Rivers had to put the team on his back. With Ladainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates struggling (albeit admirably, considering), all of a sudden the Chargers were short of play makers. Someone had to step up and Rivers and Vincent Jackson did, both having breakout seasons. The expected, but perhaps overly long awaited emergence of Jackson gave Rivers a valuable target with Gates hobbling on a bad toe and Chris Chambers catching the injury bug himself. Malcolm Floyd also began fulfilling the promise he had previously showed, displaying great chemistry with Rivers. Improved Wide Receiver play, was not necessarily something Rivers had in the past, and it certainly helped him in 2008.

Let's not forget the improvements Rivers made to his game in the off-season. Brian (dabolts) went into greater detail with his excellent "Philip Rivers Throwing Heat" post than I will here, but it was there for everyone to see. He made serious strides, for which I still don't believe he gets enough credit for by non-Chargers fans. As far as I could tell, a "lack of an arm" is no longer a valid criticism. Rivers was making the deep throws, and those to the sidelines with much greater pace and accuracy. Do not underestimate the effect this will have on a QB's yards per attempt statistic. Sure, he'll never be a Jarmarcus Russell, but would anyone prefer him as their QB? A resounding no. Philip's other big improvement was to the mental side of his game. He played with a confidence, calmness and leadership that I previously hadn't seen from him before. This led to fewer mistakes, more productive and clutch play.

The next thing I'm going to mention that I haven't seen any acknowledgement is Norv Turner's play calling. Now, I am by no means an expert, and I'm still relatively new to the NFL (fan since 2006). But from what I've noticed, and things I have read, much of Norv's playbook is based around his version of Air Coryell, or at least retains certain philosophies of it. His passing patterns often run deep and take time to develop, with play-action often being used to allow this to happen. Simple logic dictates the QB will be throwing it further than those in say, a West Coast Offense.

Now, 2008 was Norv's second year in charge so why the jump in Rivers' stats fro 2007? It's already been touched upon. Thanks to increased power and deep accuracy, Rivers could make the throws that were asked and required of him and the rise of Jackson and Floyd meant he had the receivers to catch those deep balls. The greatest example of this came in Week 6 against the New England Patriots. Chargers were extremely aggressive, taking shots at, and advantage of the Pats' small secondary with big strikes twice to Jackson and once to Floyd.

Another thing that helps is when Rivers dumps it off or throws a short ball, it's often to a guy like Darren Sproles who can turn any catch into a big one.

Finally, the poor defensive performance has to take much of the credit/blame (however you want to view it). There were too many games (Denver, Carolina, New Orleans spring to mind) where the Chargers fell too far behind and had to put points on the board quick. Philip Rivers nearly always answered the calls.

So how can he keep it up?

The first argument detractors of Rivers use is that with a healthy LT, an improving Sproles and new talent in Gartrell Johnson, the running game will bounce back to either it's former self or near to it. The argument is that this will be to the detriment of the passing game. This is perhaps true, but I don't think it is to the extent others do. The fact is, Rivers put up those numbers with only a tiny rise in attempts. It was hardly a case of success by sheer volume (see Jon Kitna, who Mike Martz once made into a viable fantasy option). He was just that good per attempt.

One thing being left is that a resurgence of the running attack, means a lot better ball control. In 2008, the Chargers ranked a paltry 29th in total snaps, but somehow managed to score the 2nd most points. Now, an argument can be made that this means the Chargers won't need to score as quickly, but it could also mean more opportunities for Rivers in terms of both red zone visits and attempts.

I don't expect the percentage of passing plays to be that high again in 2009, but I also expect a big leap in overall snaps that improved ball control will produce. There seem to be some plays (25) lost from the NFL's stats for total snaps and then rush and pass plays combined. I believe this could be QB kneels. My projections for 2009:

First, I estimated the rise in snaps the Chargers should see on offense. Last season, 1,025 was good enough for 7th, and only 10 more than 10th. If the Chargers offense is as elite as we believe and expect, with the better ball control, I think that number and standing in the league is attainable. Even accounting for a drop in the ratio of pass plays in comparison to rushes (if some people are to be believed the opposite would happen if the Chargers are truly becoming a pass-first team), Rivers sees an increase in attempts for the second year running. That means it allows for a slight drop in efficiciency, while maintaining the same numbers.

Why do I think he can keep up this level of play? Firstly, he's still a great Quarterback of strives for both the improvement of his own skills, and that of his team. There's a possibility Rivers hasn't even hit his peak yet. I see further improvement in his footwork, decision making and maybe we'll see even more zip on his passes.

Secondly, will be improved offensive line play. Unlike last off-season, everyone is healthy and one liability (Mike Goff) has been replaced by a successor we hope to be better, whether it be veteran Kynan Forney or rookie Louis Vasquez. This will not only give Rivers more time to throw, but enough time for those deep routes to develop.

Thirdly, while a hopefully improved defense does mean the Chargers won't be playing from behind nearly as often, it will also mean better field position created by forcing punts and turnovers, leading to more scoring opportunities, helping Rivers keep up the stat (touchdowns) that should prove hardest to maintain. Special teams will continue to contribute in this respect with one of the NFL's most dynamic returners (Sproles) and one of the best Punters (Mike Scifres).

So, while there are legitimate reasons for expecting a significant drop in production, I wouldn't bank on it just yet. I don't think it will be nearly as severe as most people think and perhaps will even hold relatively firm.

Projections

If we consider 25pts per yard, 4pts per TD and -1pts per INT as fairly standard scoring, without considering rushing contributions to his fantasy points, these are how his totals compare to last season.

So, after all things considered, even accounting for a drop in Rivers' efficiency in terms of completion percentage, yard per attempt, touchdowns and interceptions, there is only a 12 point difference in his total points, while the difference per game is negligible. Then consider the possibility of improvement. I'll leave you guys to salivate at imagining those kind of numbers.

Now, I cannot guarantee these numbers (disclaimer alert). All I can do is present by argument, but if I were you I wouldn't be too cynical of Philips Rivers' 2008 production and draft him as your starting QB with confidence that he will be a major contributor to your fantasy team in 2009. If you are in a keeper or dynasty league, his value only goes up.