Predictions for the 12 Playoffs teams for '09 - Part 1 AFC West
by TJBOLT on Jul 14, 2009 12:33 AM PDT
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PrintConsidering that magazines have started to predict the '09 season, I decided to put my two cents in and pick my 12 teams to make the playoffs. I'll divide by division every day and give a quick analysis and a mock playoff run, finishing with my super bowl prediction.
AFC West
1) San Diego
2) Oakland
3) Kansas City
4) Denver
Analysis: The chargers have the look of a 12-13 win club "if" Shawne Merriman returns to form, and based on his insane work ethic I would not bet against him. The chargers have a tremondous roster with excellent playcallers, my biggest doubts are lack coaching leadership and a history of injuries to key players. If they can stay healthy and personnel plays to level a 2-3 seed in the conference is more than a realistic goal. A week 4 game in Pittsburgh may decide if this team can get one the top 2 seed in the conference.
The Raiders closed strong, and can do 2 very important things well: run the football and stop the opposing team's passing game, they're still a year away from contending but 6-7 wins is quite possible. If Al Davis would give this team to Jeff Garcia they might contend this year, strangely enough I agree to a point with Al, Jamarcus Russell's potential is to high to not give him at least a bigger sample than 17 games. If they can stop the run better they might surprise.
The Chiefs were the unluckiest team in football in '09 going 1-9 in games decided by 7 or less, things should balance out this year, but the trade of Tony Gonzalez is massive head scratcher, I'm not convinced Matt Cassel is a major upgrade to Tyler Thigpen; the main concern to Cassel is the 47 sacks he took under the superior Patriots O-Line. The improvement is more based on a more balanced outcome in tight games than anything else. Until this team has something better than the worst pass rush in NFL they're not going anywhere.
The Broncos are a team that took 3 steps backwards and circumstance has played a cruel fate, as Kevin Acey said recently the NFL is defined not only by the team you are, but by who you play, and when and where you play them. Lets put this equation together a defense in transition with no serious improvement (a descending Brian Dawkins barely counts) that gave up 28 points per game, and you take away a 4500 yard QB who carried you to an 8-8 record, change to a mediocre QB and a schedule that has "the most games" versus elite teams: Chargers (2), Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Giants, Eagles, Cowboys. Clear and simple top 3 pick in '10 draft.
Playoff teams: San Diego Chargers (3rd seed AFC 12-4 record)
Tomorrow: AFC North
This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.
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You're way off re: Denver
They have a top-tier offense, even if you think the QB is a caretaker (though no Rivers, I think Orton will be better than average).
The defense has improved dramatically in the secondary, even if you disrespect Dawkins. The front seven, while yet to be proven, certainly haven’t gotten worse. The biggest additions on this side of the ball are Nunnely at DL coach (from the Chargers) and Don Martindale at LB coach (from the Raiders), topped off by Mike Nolan as Defensive Coordinator. I just don’t see how this side of the ball isn’t better than the very low bar set last year, despite all of the transition.
do you think the broncos are a playoff team? They have a whole lot of uncertainty…
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Jul 14, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions
too much transition for any confidence in a playoff appearance
There best chance is a replay of last year (Chargers stumble due to injuries, poor play, etc.) with a stronger finish. They might gel quickly (their easiest games are the first three) and make a run at a wildcard, but that’s mostly homerism talking. There’s always hope, just ask last year’s Dolphins.
I agree with TJ that their schedule is their biggest obstacle — it’s possibly tougher than SD’s since they draw the Colts and the Patriots while the Chargers get the Dolphins and the Titans. Even so, there is no way they finish fourth in the division. KC and Oaktown just haven’t improved enough for that disastrous result.
Good luck with the shedule is right there with Miami's
Here’s hoping the Broncos defense is truly better because if this team is giving 28 points per, its going to be a very long season. A 3 point per game dropoff with Orton is more than reasonable. I hope McDaniels respects and maintains the zone blocking scheme because time of possesion is critical for this team’s success.
With the modern NFL enforcing the 5 yard contact rule, the age when a secondary could carry you has gone away. It pretty much comes down to pass rush and imposing will in the line of scrimmage. Coaching is nice it helps but it mostly comes down to the players. Any chance for major improvement hinges on Robert Ayers being as good as Mike Mayock thinks he is.
Good luck I may be wrong, its my opinion and seasons are not played on paper.
The OL and RB coaches are pretty much the only ones that survived the Shannapurge, so it’s safe to say that Denver’s zone blocking will continue. McDaniels has said as much, with the caveat that he may mix it up a bit.
I appreciate your post. Even if I’m more hopeful, I completely respect your opinion and your rationale. I fully recognize that my glasses are tinted orange and blue :-)
I agree that the Broncos will take a year off.
They didn’t address their pass rush, so the secondary doesn’t matter. They won’t be able to stop anyone, so their running game won’t be a difference-maker; they’ll have to throw late. Their passing game will be ok (Orton is underrated), but it won’t be what it was last year. They face the Beast, the Pats, Colts, Steelers, whichever other AFCN team is good next year (Bengals or Ravens; I think it’s safe to guess one will be solid), Chargers and Chargers. That’s 10 tough opponents. Hello, losing record, though maybe not the basement. The question will really be: which team has the better defense — Oakland or Denver? I think the answer is Oakland, which incidentally has a softer schedule (Houston and NYJ instead of the Colts and Patriots). Predicting Denver in 4th isn’t any more or less reasonable than predicting them to come in 3rd or 2nd.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Jul 14, 2009 4:43 PM PDT reply actions
DL was the strongest unit of Denver's D last year
Which is something like being the tallest short guy, but anyway…
If you take a look at Football Outsider’s defensive stats for last year, Denver was weakest in the secondary and LB corp, with a poor showing for giving up longer gains (i.e. missing tackles past the line of scrimmage). They were average or better in short yardage and stuffs behind the line. So, in theory anyway, significant improvements to the secondary, as well as theoretical improvements to the LBs, should bring the entire D closer to average (which, unfortunately, is progress). Also, don’t discount the effect of a confusing and incoherent scheme. There were more than a few comments from the locker room stating that players were often confused. Nolan, Nunnely, and Martindale have stellar reps, and one thing I don’t expect is for players to be unclear about where they’re supposed to be and what they’re supposed to be doing.
Regarding Culter vs Orton, there may be a drop off in stats, but not necessarily a drop off in production (wins). Orton has more wins than Cutler, while playing with an inferior supporting cast and scheme (the Bears’ defense, statistically anyway, wasn’t all that much better than Denver’s). Cutler had gaudy stats last year, but that was with over 600 passing attempts. His YPA was more pedestrian than you might think. Expect a more balanced attack this year, and larger doses of Moreno, Buckhalter, and Hillis. There is no denying Cutler’s rocket arm, but there remain questions about his choices on the field (locking on to Marshall, red zone turnovers, etc.). Manning, Brady, and Rivers win with their decision making rather than their arm strength, and Orton will fit in that mold. McDaniels did pretty well with Cassell last year, so there is hope that Orton can perform similarly.
And lastly, the NFC East is overrated — they aren’t pushovers, but they only had one team with more than 10 wins last year. The schedule is tough, but it’s somewhere in the middle of the pack for “degree of difficulty.” The Broncos may or may not challenge SD for the division title, but they still have a better shot at it than KC or Oakland.
Long year for Denver
Let me tell you, my cousin live in Colorado so I like Denver just happen to love the Bolts….The loss of Cutler isn’t that big of deal, to be honest I thought he was over rated and not a great leader. But chemistry, defense, and McDaniels….picture 2 cement blocks and chain around them
McDaniels…..I can’t think of 1 good reason why he should be the coach, now or ever. It has to be 1 of the worst starts of mishandling, clueless to start a season with except I have been exposed to Aztec football
Defense: outside of an aging Bailey/Dawkins not much anywhere else and nothing on horizon
Chemistry: McDaniels/Bowlen/Marshall just to start….
Maybe they pull it together…might be safe getting that Lotto ticket
1. San Diego
2. KC
3. Denver
4. Oakland
Fire Bud Black!
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 14, 2009 4:54 PM PDT reply actions
+1
SD likely division winner, as Denver has imploded. Kyle Orton, really? I hope you are not serious. JaMarcus “I reviewed the blank tape” Russell? Not gonna happen. But KC is a huge wildcard, if Cassel proves to be a franchise QB, then watch out! The huge ? is whether Tamba Hali can play LB or not, and potentially weak at C and RT, but with Zach Thomas still running a 4.5 40, and Mike Brown in the secondary, KC’s D should at least be middle of the pack.
KC’s schedule is tough up front, but they could get on a roll at the end of the season, if they make the playoffs, then watch out (AKA Arizona last year).
Negative Ghost Rider the pattern is full...
We need to make sure to come back to these before the playoffs start
A la game predictions last season
Fire Bud Black!
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 14, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions
Great post very accurate and unbiased
Long time Raider fan who would actually like to see Ladanian get his ring before he is done.
1) The Chargers are the class of the division and I think will represent the AFC west in the playoffs, but I do think if they are going to get that Super bowl it has to be NOW!. There are some holes in that defense that no one seems to want to talk about cause even before the lights outs injury they had trouble stopping the run.
2) I think the Raiders are improving and heading in the right direction but they are two years away from any real noise
3)Could be the Chiefs or the Broncos the one thing I have found to be very overrated is any X-patriot coach or GM. I cant name one that has had any real success after the leave Bellicheck
Ok so one
I actually thought it was decent post, Mike Smith did a great job…but i am not a fan of Belicheck tree: Mangini/Crennel/Weiss….never seen so many arrogant crappy coaches, maybe decent position coaches but bad head coaches, McDaniels will join them
The Raiders are despite all the zigging and zagging are moving forward in the right direction
Chiefs/Broncos….long year
Charges defense predicated on pass rush…Merriman/English will pick up that big hole last year, safety still needs help as does the line, Igor was entertaining but I never saw much
I agree with Darkraider on at least one point.
Even though I’m a long time Bronco fan, I appreciate what Thomlinson and the Chargers have brought to the game. If it can’t be the Broncos, and by the way, I think people are in for a real surprise there, I’d like to see the Chargers and especially LT get a championship before he’s done. I’ve been saying for a couple of years now that the window is only open for a short time. All those great players over the years, who pulled on the powder blue, deserve it.
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
by Trinidad Jack on Jul 20, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
My take
Oakland is a bigger challenge this year than KC or Denver. With Garcia behind center they could actually get to .500, IMO. A lot of their success will depend on both lines. The running game should be solid IF the OL can open a few holes. LoNeal helps a lot with that.
KC is a year away. Period. Cassell may be the answer at QB, but he’s not going to mesh w/Haley like he did with McDaniels, at least not right away. KC doesn’t have the WR depth of NE nor do they have a very good OL right now. The transition to a 3-4 is going to be rough – the LB personnel is suspect.
Denver? We haven’t had a problem with whipping Denver since Rivers took the reins – other than the Hochuli Debacle. It doesn’t change this year, that’s for sure.
Here’s my AFCW prediction:
SD
OAK
KC
DEN
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
Reeallly??
Oakland allergic to the end zone like a lactose intolerant person to milk
Fire Bud Black!
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 17, 2009 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions
We've all heard this one right?
Oakland Raiders football practice was delayed nearly two hours today after a player reported finding an unknown white powdery substance on the practice field. Head coachArt ShellLane KiffinTom Cable immediately suspended practice and called the police and federal investigators. After a complete analysis, FBI forensic experts determined that the white substance unknown to players was the GOAL LINE. Practice resumed after special agents decided the team was unlikely to encounter the substance again.
Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.
by Wonko on Jul 17, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
How do you keep the Raiders off of your lawn?
Put goalposts in your yard.
by Leukadian on Jul 17, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
AFC West harder to call than one might think
Charger fan here. Everyone seems to have the Bolts as a clear cut AFC West champs, but I’m an eternal Devil’s Advocate, I guess. Chargers won the division with 8 wins last year and have steadily been winning fewer games ever since a certain incompetent Head Coach was hired. The Hated Raiders have had many low-number draft picks lately, and it’s only a matter of time until they see a spike in the W column. Kyle Orton was on a team that didn’t have many offensive weapons. His new O-Line will give him seconds longer than he had in CHI, and Marshall and Royal are better than anything he had before. If I could think of a way to say the Chiefs could contend I’d say it, but I can’t so I’ll just say “Stranger things have happened.” If it wasn’t for that defense, maybe I could come up with something.
I don’t want to jinx my chargers, so I’ll leave them out of my standings.
Oak
Den
KC
Not that it matters anyway, the whole NFL will just be watching Pittsburgh and New England this year. No one else stands a chance, sadly. Although if LT is splitting his carries this year, and is healthy come January…
by justinmichaelmccabe on Jul 20, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions
that is sound thinking
that is a good post sd is the fav i love denver but sd is the fav for now i think denver is num 2 because 1 a whoule new staff 2 the d cant get worse from a pass rush statndpoint 3 orton wont make too many game killing mistakes 4 k monero is the real deal yall can laugh now but i think he will have 1’500 yards rushing that said 1 sd 10-6 2 den 9-7 3 oak 7-9 4 kc 6-10
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