A Correlation Between Regular and Post Season Carries
by John (obviousman) on Jun 15, 2009 7:04 AM PDT
15 comments
With all my screaming about LaDainian Tomlinson's miles, I always seem to miss the point. There's one point that always seems to bring this argument up for me and that's this: When it comes to the running game, the Chargers do everything backwards.
Now, I don't like to praise the Patriots and the way they do things....but it's proven to bring victories and championships so it's worth looking at. When you look at the teams that are getting deep into the playoffs each year, it almost always has something to do with their running back having fresh legs at the end of the season. Whether that's due to injury or the RB simply being held out for most of the year (which the Patriots seem to do with Laurence Maroney every year). Even after seeing this and knowing that Tomlinson is old and beaten-up (relatively speaking), the team still runs him into the ground during the season so he has nothing left for the playoffs. Don't believe me? Just look at the massive statistical breakdown after the jump.
Top Playoff RBs in 2008:
| Att (Post) | Avg (Post) | Att (Reg) | Avg (Reg) | |
| B Jacobs | 19 | 4.8 | 219 | 5.0 |
| A Peterson | 20 | 4.2 | 363 | 4.8 |
| E James | 61 | 3.9 | 133 | 3.9 |
| W McGahee | 39 | 3.9 | 170 | 3.9 |
| T Hightower | 35 | 3.8 | 143 | 2.8 |
| D Sproles | 33 | 3.6 | 61 | 5.4 |
| W Parker | 70 | 3.5 | 210 | 3.8 |
| L Tomlinson | 5 | 5.0 | 292 | 3.8 |
Okay, let's ignore Adrian Peterson for a second. As much as I'd love to compare Tomlinson to him, he's 6 years younger and 3 inches taller. Not to mention that he appears to be made out of brick or cement or something. So, taking him out of the equation, there is not another RB that performed well in the playoffs (with 19 or more carries) that had anywhere close to the amount of regular season carries Tomlinson had. Why? Well, different reasons. Mostly it is because they're all part of a two-headed or three-headed backfield so that they're healthy enough and fresh enough to be a force in the playoffs. You could argue that we needed every Tomlinson carry in the regular season to even make the playoffs in 2008, but I'd rather prepare my star player to be ready to destroy defenses in the playoffs and take my chances that Sproles and Hester could've gotten us to the same place in the regular season. Even so, I'll take that argument and flip it on it's head.
Top Playoff RBs in 2007:
| Att (Post) | Avg (Post) | Att (Reg) | Avg (Reg) | |
| R Grant | 40 | 5.8 | 188 | 5.1 |
| M Barber | 27 | 4.8 | 204 | 4.8 |
| L Maroney | 61 | 4.6 | 185 | 4.5 |
| A Bradshaw | 48 | 4.3 | 23 | 8.3 |
| M Turner | 43 | 3.8 | 71 | 4.5 |
| L White | 19 | 3.6 | 303 | 3.7 |
| E Graham | 18 | 3.5 | 222 | 4.0 |
| L Tomlinson | 30 | 2.5 | 315 | 4.7 |
Again, let's ignore Lendale White. And I'm not just doing this to make these numbers look better for my argument. Tomlinson is listed at 5'10" 221lbs, quite generously I believe. Lendale White is 6'1", 235lbs and Adrian Peterson is 6'1" 217lbs. They're bigger guys, they're built for taking more of a pounding that LT. Even with that being said, neither player was particularly great once they got to the playoffs.
So if we take White out of the picture, the closest running back in terms of regular season workload is Earnest Graham, who had nearly 100 less regular season carries than Tomlinson. Michael Turner showed up in 2007 and Sproles showed up in 2008 as top playoff rushers, so we know the playcalling and offensive line is not to blame. It's a simple case of Tomlinson giving all he has by Week 17 and having nothing left to give. Is this making sense to anyone yet? Maybe I'm presenting it a little bit backwards. Let's do it this way:
RBs with most regular season carries (2008):
| RushAtt (Reg) | Team Rec (Reg) | |
| M Turner | 376 | 11-5 |
| A Peterson | 363 | 10-6 |
| C Portis | 342 | 8-8 |
| M Forte | 316 | 9-7 |
| R Grant | 312 | 6-10 |
| L Tomlinson | 292 | 8-8 |
| T Jones | 290 | 9-7 |
| J Lewis | 279 | 4-12 |
Now compare that to.....
Winninest teams in 2008 and the number of rushing attempts for their top rusher:
| Team | RushAtt (Reg) |
| Titans (13-3) | 251 (C Johnson) |
| Colts (12-4) | 155 (J Addai) |
| Steelers (12-4) | 210 (W Parker) |
| Panthers (12-4) | 273 (D Williams) |
| Giants (12-4) | 219 (B Jacobs) |
| Dolphins (11-5) | 214 (R Brown) |
| Patriots (11-5) | 156 (S Morris) |
| Ravens (11-5) | 232 (L McClain) |
| Falcons (11-5) | 376 (M Turner) |
Am I crazy? If I did a chart of the number of rushes for the backup RB, it'd be even more striking. The difference between a RB who has rushed the ball 292 times and one that's rushed it 210 times is four games, at 20 an average of 20 attempts per game. I've been posting news about Chargers' players negative reactions to the idea of an 18-game regular season. They know how beaten up they are after 16 games and they're scared how beaten up they'd be after 18 and then playoff games after that. Tomlinson has taken so many carries over his career it's like he's been playing 18 game seasons already. It's no wonder why the guy can't stay healthy in the playoffs.
Yes, recently I made the comparison to Emmitt Smith and said that Emmitt's career took an upswing after a down year at the same time. The difference is that the philosophy of the NFL is changing. Bigger, stronger, faster players means that 300 carries in today's NFL is not what 300 carries was a decade ago. Smart NFL teams and coaches have realized that the only way to keep a running back healthy and fresh for the playoffs is to lessen the amount of times he's getting hit.
We had a great opportunity with Michael Turner, where the Chargers could've used him as the bull during the regular season and then unleashed a healthy Tomlinson during the playoffs. The team never took advantage of it though. I'm hoping things are different with Gartrell Johnson. I'm hoping he rushes the ball 150-200 times during the regular season and Tomlinson carries it for another 200-225. They'll earn nicknames like "Thunder and Lightning", Johnson will be credited for stabilizing the running game and Tomlinson's career will be longer and more successful. Everybody wins. I have no idea why some people are so against this. I believe the only way Tomlinson reaches his full potential in the playoffs, which I suppose would be as Super Bowl MVP, is if he's got the legs to push through the playoffs. If he carries the ball 300 times in 2009, there's no way it happens.
I was going to end there, but just for the heck of it......
Winninest teams in 2008 and the number of rushing attempts for their second rusher:
| Team | RushAtt (Reg) |
| Titans (13-3) | 200 (L White) |
| Colts (12-4) | 152 (D Rhodes) |
| Steelers (12-4) | 140 (M Moore) |
| Panthers (12-4) | 183 (J Stewart) |
| Giants (12-4) | 182 (D Ward) |
| Dolphins (11-5) | 160 (R Williams) |
| Patriots (11-5) | 83 (K Faulk) |
| Ravens (11-5) | 170 (W McGahee) |
| Chargers (8-8) | 61 (D Sproles) |
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Great Read
Obviousman…great read. I feel you make a great point that may explain the late season breakdown of LT and his injuries. I agree that the use of Gartell/Sproles to a greater extent this year than the use of Turner when he was a back up could go a long way to help this team achieve a championship.
Howeve I feel it must be mentioned that the coaching staff has walked a tightrope the last 2 years with LT. He still feels he is at the 2006 level and has felt he should be the focus of the offense. It is clear that Rivers is now the focus and for good reason…especially for the long term. A great decision by Norv Turner. LT however made very public statements about his displeasure over his seemingly becoming less of an offensive focus. He has to a certain extent forced the issue and demanded more carries in the regualr season. I think if the coaching staff broke it down to LT as you have here he would be more than willing to play a lesser role from an attempts standpoint. He has always stated his only goal is to win a chanpionship…if the coaching staff can show him that more regualr season carries is hindering the team and his goal to win a SB he may embrace it with open arms…and fresher legs!
by PowderBlues on Jun 15, 2009 10:15 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
I was going to go into that point here. The whole “Maybe he’s gotten all these carries because he’s DEMANDED them”, but I couldn’t do it without seeming like a gossip-hound. If it indeed the case, he may have caused himself a Super Bowl already. If Turner had shouldered more of the load in 2007, LT’s would’ve been in the AFC Championship game instead of watching from the sidelines.
Rec’d
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Jun 15, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When we consider keeping LT fresh…
…It might be good to compare first half to second half.
To me it seems like LT has his best success in the second half of the games he plays in. I don’t know if he’s just got more juice in the tank than the D. Or if he elevates his game. Or if the O-line is able to make adjustments and get the blocking schemes working. But I just seems like LT really starts firing late in the games.
What if they alternated Gatrell and Sproles (with Hester at FB) in the first half then Gatrell(as a fullback) AND LT in the second half? This would reduce LTs rep count, and maximize his productivity. Also this tactic would allow for Gatrell to shoulder more of the up the gut running and let LT get the all purpose yards.
I guess this idea depends on Gatrell’s blocking skills. I don’t think Sproles and LT in the same back field works as well as it would with a bigger back. If they want the guy to be available late in the season, they have to spare him early on. The successful running teams are all Platooning, and it is a copy cat league.
by Trendsearcher on Jun 15, 2009 11:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Gartrell is a HB
Let’s not start experimenting with Gartrell as a FB, please. We’re already doing that with Hester.
I’m all for keeping LT fresh, but let’s not attempt to force square pegs into round holes.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Jun 15, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
Because you’re dead on. Man, am I ever glad I ran that contest for the Giants tickets that forced you to join and start commenting. You’ve been a force to be reckoned with in the comments, Buck. Keep it up.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Jun 15, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would definitely be an experiment
And from what I’ve read Hester has beefed up. So yeah he would be the logical choice for full back
But putting Gatrell and LT in the same backfield would be more of a pro-set type configuration. If the safeties are spread or deep one back could go left the other right, and they could audible the blocking scheme based on the defensive alignment. Should be an easier-to-achieve 3 to 5 yards with 5 to 7 defenders in the box.
If the safeties stay inside the tackles, LT could run sweeps or screen passes to the outside. As good a runner as LT is he is just as good at all purpose yards. Remember those first few years where he led the league? If he sees those safeties in tight, he will make someone look foolish trying to catch up. And if the safeties move inside out, they just jam it right back up inside.
by Trendsearcher on Jun 15, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pro Set
The pro set is rarely seen anymore because defensive ends got quicker and faster. If they can beat the tackle to the outside, it can lead to a 3 or 4 yard loss and a big hit. I don’t know that anyone really runs the Pro set anymore.
I think it makes the most sense to run Hester/LT and Hester/Gartrell in an I, or run the single-back with Manumaleuna in as the 2nd TE. We do some interesting things with that because he can transition to FB easily.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Jun 15, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have theories...
…as to why LT is more effective in the second half than the first. Lots of them. I don’t know that I want to try and explain all of them, but what it really comes down to is that the offense as a whole is better in the second half of games. The defense too. I’ve said this a million times, nobody makes better half-time adjustments than the Chargers. When I’m watching the games, I know that if we’re tied or winning at half time that the game might as well be over. Jamal Williams probably knew it too when he said “Game Over” in overtime.
When the rest of the offense is clicking, it opens up holes for LT. But let’s be honest, it’s not like he turned into Walter Payton in the second half of games last year. He got incrementally better as the game went along because the playcalling got sharper and the passing game spread the defense out.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Jun 15, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
you’re absolutely right, man. We do a kick ass job of adjusting, that’s for sure. At least when I think of the last three seasons or so. We usually dig ourselves a hole and then just find a way to either crawl out of it or come up just short. We did most of the holedigging last year, obviously, ‘06 was just pure domination.
Although, when I think about it, some seasons, like ’05, for instance, we were the team that just couldn’t hang on to a lead. We kept screwing it up. One game comes to mind (one that we didn’t lose actually, so I know it’s kind of a bad example) and that’s the one against the Jets in NYC. We had a 21-7 lead and at the end of the 3d quarter a 28-13 lead and in the end it all came down to a 4th and goal at the 3, which was deflected by Jammer. After that game we were 5-4. the four losses all came in the last minutes of games.
Well, his name is LT
A true MVP
You know he'd love to lift up that Lombardi Trophy
A touchdown machine
You know what I mean?
Put him in the redzone, TD guaranteed
by LAZBOYxBE on Jun 15, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best Charger team
at making half time adjustments was the team that went to the Super Bowl. I knew if that team was within 10 points at halftime, the game was not over and they could come back. Bobby Ross was a master at this. Just look at the playoff wins versus Miami and Pitt, both come from behind wins after trailing at halftime.
The current version of the Chargers has the same ability, although the talent level is much higher now than it was in 1994. And I think once you come back from a halftime deficit a few times, the team starts to believe in themselves, and they don’t panic when they fall behind early. A great example of this was that Bengals game a couple of years ago when the Chargers were down by 21 (I think it was 21) at half, and came all the way back and won. Not panicking and being able to come from behind and win are traits of a great team.
Do or do not. There is no try.
by Clip Show on Jun 15, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So given the Chargers ability to adjust
Rather that think about sparing LT on the basis of games (ie: limiting his reps early in the season). It seems that we could really achieve better results by splitting LTs reps to something like 20% in the first half / 80% in the second half. The coordinators would get enough information to make their adjustments, and LT would remain fresh for the second half.
by Trendsearcher on Jun 15, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but
You don’t want to be coming back every game. Ideally you want to build a lead going into the half and then in the 2nd half you could rest LT’s legs and pound the ball/run the clock with Gartrell Johnson. An early lead taken to the end is preferred every time over a 2nd half comeback.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Jun 15, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amen
Out of the 18 games played last season, we had the lead at the end of the third quarter only 4 times.
Curiously, they were all spotlight games:
Now, don’t get me wrong, the beatdowns listed above were a joy to watch. I enjoyed those games immensely. The Jets weren’t that big of a deal but it was on Monday night. I’ve despised the Patriots since they danced on our logo after Parker, McCree, and Florence gift wrapped that playoff win for them. The Raiders, I don’t need to even elaborate. And of course, the sweetest victory of the year, the week 17 destruction of the Broncos.
Throw out the week 12 matchup against the Colts where we were tied at the end of the third and that leaves 13 times last season that I was grippin’ my beer hard going into the 4th quarter.
I know it’s not possible to dominate every game from start to finish, but if the Chargers can build and protect some more leads this year it might save me some heart palpitations.
by theGEN3RAL on Jun 16, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FOUR TIMES?
That’s insane. No wonder we only won 8 games. It’s a damn miracle we won 8 games actually!
After the Patriots game I remember my dad saying “Why the hell does it look like a different team when they play in primetime?” I had no clue then and I have no clue now. More time to prepare? More focus?
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Jun 16, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do we spell LT...
I agree that it is too much to expect LT to carry the entire load for a full season. Our offence will obviously not be firing on all cylinders if we have LT on the sideline. So how do we spell him?
Do we hold down his reps early in the season, but balance it out across both halves?
Do we intentionally have him out there on the field and not run plays with LT in mind? It seems like a waste to take one position out of the scheme. How long before the opponent figures out the plays/formations that we are holding LT back?
It seems that our only choice is to give the reps to the depth chart and hope that they can succeed.
by Trendsearcher on Jun 16, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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