Just a couple of notes, I like the list…Everyone looks at Clary on the line, but really Goff has been sketchy for awhile, you have the grade the tandem not individual on the lines. Forney is far more ready than Vasquez atm. Hart, Cromartie played through injuries when they could have just whined and sat down, their practice reps and film should tell if they making good decisions or not. I don’t see their secondary as the problem. Their biggest challenge is reinvigorating the pass rush since that is what their defense concept is based around; secondaries look good on 3 second plays and bad on 5 second ones.

I like Cottrel personally , but I think the biggest change will Rivera whose defense style I like better. 3-4 defenses have to use a variety of blitz to make up for missing lineman….Cottrel just dropped into zone way too much,,Castillo job isn’t to get sacks, his job is to seal off his end and keep backfield straight behind center so blitzer has ideal line to QB or RB if I was to judge Castillo, you break down film looking at how many times he failed to do his job which in this type of defense isn’t a Julius Peppers or Jared Allen…

in a 4-3 ends get most of sacks but are scorched by dumpoff passes to backs and short dunk passes to TE’s (ala West Coast style), in 3-4 you want your lineman to box an area of containment and let your free player/blitzer get the glory, in the mixing of packages you can limit the dump and dunk plays…the mixing is where Cottrel failed he began to over think his injuries to Merriman and others, dropping into zones way too often

So in the end I liked your numbers, but I think Rivera wins the top 10 even he is not a player I think the change to him will impact those players in the top 10 along with good health

Lets go one by one, first off:

10) Clinton Hart: Of the key 10 he’s probably the one I least believe is going to come through, I think Kevin Ellison and Paul Oliver are going to take his position. His inconsistent hands, below average coverage skills and sub 60 tackle production is just not nfl level. They say he’s a super guy so it isn’t personal, but an upgrade is needed and Ellison-Oliver are worth the gamble.

9) Mike Scifres: Dude is just awesome, he’s one the 5 best punters ever. He’s a big reason the chargers were second in scoring while being eleventh in yards. And he’s probably getting better.

8) Gartrell Johnson: I like the guy and his skill set is very similar to Marion Barber, and his role could be similar to Barber early in his career. The chargers need a late game closer and short yardage back. The Chargers have to study history, and Fred Taylor found a second wind with the arrival a Maurice Jones-Drew. So there are parallels lets drop LT’s carries to 16-18 carries per game, and lets get 10-14 carries Sproles/Johnson.

7) Jeromey Clary: This offense was still second in the league scoring with him, add an upgrade next him at RG and he should be fine. I am concerned when he faces premier pass rushers (Woodley and Mathis ate him for lunch in the playoffs). He’s improving and worth the gamble that he will get better.

6) Eric Weddle: I don’t why this guy get some much criticism, he’s around the ball; he led the team in tackles. He’s not a finished product, and he really got better as the season progressed and he will continue to get better. He doesn’t get flashy bone jarring hits, but he should good for 85-100 tackles and 3-5 Int’s.

5) Louis Vasquez: I love his long term potential, good pass blocking guards at 6’5 330 lbs, that are really strong don’t grow on trees and his skill set is perfect scheme fit for the chargers offense. But he has to learn how to drive and combo block, and I doubt the chargers will start him. And considering the unwillingness to bench Goff last year, I doubt Vasquez gets to start until ’10.

4) Philip Rivers: Like most QB’s he tends to play better the more he throws and he can get into a rhythm. The chargers sure seem to be a team that follows the axiom “You need to run to establish the pass”. I have always hated that view, Norv try a new one: “You pass to score and run to win the game”. If the chargers come out throwing it should result in better early results and you still should get your carries in the second half.

3) Luis Castillo: All 3 theories may have some merit, I’ll be less cynical and say his production was affected with lack of Merriman he tended to get 3-5 garbage sacks a year. But the QB’s weren’t stepping up in the pocket. If he can get playing time on the nickel Merriman/English/Phillips grouping his production I think will go up. But I’m still concerned about this guy’s ability to stay healthy.

2) Nate Kaeding: He should be solid, he still kicked that 54 yarder against Tampa, he didn’t have his best season. But I still think there is no need or movement in the chargers brass for a change.

1) Shawne Merriman: I know the chargers are annoyed by the visits to Europe and the show for Fox. But if he still is a 14-20 sack guy, AJ Smith will make a serious offer to keep him. Come on we should know AJ Smith he doesn’t offer long term deals to guys with medical concerns until they prove they can produce after surgery. John Riggins was weird the redskins, when you’re productive you are not a headache you’re eccentric.
If Shawne is back to his level I fully expect the chargers to improve their pass defense from 25th to around 8-12 level, and they should be able to drop the points per game to around 16-18 points per game.

Kaeding’s FG against TB was a 57 yard field goal at the end of the first half. As far as the blog…. Really surprised to not see LT on the list. I believe that him being healthy, in addition to Merriman being healthy( your # 1), are the two key players/factors to this " being our year." I love talking Bolts and I do not mean to be critical. Also, love our draft but i don’t expect Vasquez to unseat “now favorite” Forney for the starting position. No mention of Bingham/Cesaire/Martin as a key to our success is troubling. i do not mean as three different positions on your top ten but as one spot collectively. Both Shawne and Shaun need our space eating 3-4 DEs to occupy as many linemen as possible to free up lanes to rush the QB and reel in RBs. I do believe that the playcalling of Norv Turner is very crucial to our success, but, you did say " players." Kaeding is fine and only makes me nervous in the playoffs. Rivers continues to mature and improve with each and every season. Every QB is crucial to their respective teams success but we have a gem in Rivers. Do i cringe occasionally at some of his decisions? Absolutely. But i have this argument about Rivers with my dad and will not take it out on you any further. Scifres?? Best punter in the league by far. For example: See Colts playoff game. Questioning that is a jinx in my mind. Gartrell will definitely see SOME carries but will not be that much of a factor in a VERY talented backfield. 2010 is another story. With all due respect, I would like to post my top ten and challenge you to debate it. It will contain some of the same players but not in the same order. Have never posted on here before but heard about it from Boltgirl on the Union Tribune site and she wasn’t lying about this site being good.
10) Antonio Cromartie: Super athlete and sooo fast. Was he really injured to a degree that made it impossible to make simple reads and get burned a countless number of times Granted, my sophomore year, I had my hip fractured in a game, and i was on crutches for 8 weeks. Which would lead me to believe that his hip was probably not fractured, but hurt regardless. Great athletes make great plays as long as they are disciplined, healthy, and/or get lucky. I feel in my heart of hearts that he did not get lucky in ‘07. We obviously need some pass rush to help him, but come on, Brandon Marshall ate him alive as well as every other receiver did. Whew.. my bad.
9) Dobbins/Burnett: The starter here has a lot of pressure to perform well. Dobbins to solidify his spot last year. Burnett to confirm that this is why I was the only free agent to be signed.
8) Eric Weddle: Yes , i know that he was out of position often, but i believe that he is an up and coming star in this league. Very smart and IS learning from his mistakes.
7) Bingham/Cesaire/Martin: Was not a big Olshansky fan but did love his strength. Being in a 3-4 accentuates the importance of our DEs. Can’t wait to see Martin in the years to come but he has a lot of learning to do. The battle is between Bingham and Cesaire to prove that they are starting material and not just rotational DEs/NTs.
6) Clary: The only reason I don’t have him rated closer to the top is that he seems to be in good graces with the decision makers and i am doing my best to try to stand behind their decisions. Really hope that he is more physical and think that he will improve from last year.
5) LT: To literally take the nickname of a hall of fame LB says enough. To have the Chargers use their heads and restructure his contract (although i would have left him alone and not forced his hand) is the best news of the offseason. To have him healthy is PRICELESS. My favorite player of all-time and the best Charger to ever step foot on the field. WE need LT. Period. End.
4) Castillo: A wise Charger fan, Boltgirl4ever, once cast him as “Ca-steal-dough.” Hilarious, I know. But, unfortunately, true. Really hope that he isn’t " that guy" and isn’t going to quit after receiving a big contract. Luis, EARN IT!!!
3) Forney/Vasquez: I would love to se a mauler like Vasquez in the starting line-up but do not forsee it happening unless there is a complete meltdown by Forney. A.J. would not have resigned him, after not playing a down last year, unless he thought that he replace Goff.
2) Clinton Hart: I really hope that his injuries were the reason that he was so terrible last season. He made that great play in overtime against the Chiefs but i would have knocked that down as well. He has never been known as a physical SS, but i would really like to see him hit somebody. Or cover somebody for that matter. I know that he had a good 07 but i think that that was more a product of the pass rush and " who else am i going to attack on this Charger defense." Off the top of my head I am not able to name one great Charger Safety ever minus Rodney Harrison and initially I found him to be a cheap shot artist. Initially being the operative word. I am only 30 yrs. old but please correct me.
1) Shawne “Lights Out” Merriman" : THE best defensive player in the league when healthy. I, along with many others, obviously took him for granted. A.J., it’s okay, a lot of us did. I loved Shawne pre-injury and loved him even more post-injury. He is able to help this team get to the Superbowl and I pray ( honestly I PRAY) that A.J. will allow him to do so. If A.J. doesn’t then it is time, again, for Dean to step in and take control to remind him of how important marquee players are to this franchise. I am sooo sick of seeing us settle for compensatory picks as compensation for NFL superstars. Prior to compensatory picks the Chargers have always been notorious for letting great players go in their prime. Wow… Just re-read this whole rant and would like to apologize. It is the offseason and I have a lot to say. Love the site. Keep up the good work. For those who would like to respond my email address is boogapeters@yahoo.com. Peace and love to you and all your friends and families.

Probably in the 4-6 range I would take Larry English. Why? Our single greatest need this offseason was to put pressure on the QB, something that we failed to do unless playing the raiders. We did not take him at 16 to let him grow. I dare say he will have a larger impact than the other two rookies you chose. He wil come in on passing downs and he will be turned loose. Look for somwhere between 8-10 sacks and two of those being gamechangers. I wholeheartedlly agree with SM at #1. Great post obviousman.

Even then Castillo seemed to get most of his big plays when QB’s had to step up in the pocket, as of right know he definitely seems like a bad investment.

I’m not married to the idea of Forney as a starter but the chargers are not known for throwing rookies into the fire. Clearly Stephen Cooper was a superior player to Randall Godfrey and it took the end of Godfrey contract for Cooper to take that spot, Malcolm Floyd outplayed Chambers last year, I’m pretty sure Chambers keeps his job. Don’t agree with it just come to expect it.

In terms of English don’t be shocked if he takes over the Justin Tuck position as a Defensive Tackle on passing downs, I know the chargers are a 3-4 team, but I’m sure Rivera wants to throw some of the 4-3 stuff he learned under Jim Johnson.

I agree about getting English snaps, but if Phillips has a subpar performance like last year he will start to see his snaps diminish and English will get more pt. Anyhow fun to speculate during this time of year.