Obvious Thoughts: Chargers Offseason Doldrums
I only have one thing to say: Only 17 more days until the 2009 NFL Draft!
Seriously, that's all I have to say. This is a funny time of the year for me as a football fan and blogger. Especially as a Chargers blogger. We don't sign big free agents and AJ loves playing headgames by bringing in every NFL prospect under the sun, so entire weeks go by with no real news regarding the Chargers. You think I'm joking? Check out the newly redesigned Chargers.com and take a look at the most recent stories:
-Healthy Hardwick enjoying offseason
-Chargers Girls to introduce new squad Thursday
-Chambers reaches out to local youth
-April is postseason for Chargers' scouts
-Hart looks to bounce back
-Chargers preseason schedule announced
You get the idea. There's nothing going on. If I go looking for Chargers news somewhere besides Chargers.com all I see are articles telling me that the Chargers are bringing in some cornerbacks for workouts and that a newspaper in Seattle has a "Draft Preview" for the Chargers that I won't even bother to look at. And here we sit as Chargers fans, left to ponder the same questions over and over. Here are our current questions:
-Will LT rebound?
-Will Sproles get more carries?
-Who will replace Igor?
-Who will replace Hart?
-Are they really starting Forney at RG?
-Are they really starting Burnett at ILB?
-How will Merriman be after surgery?
-How will McNeil be after surgery?
That's all of them. And all of those questions are followed by "Who will we draft?" The answer to all of them is completely up in the air right now. AJ probably only has a preliminary draft board, if that. I don't doubt that he's trying to get into the second round because it's the sweet spot for safeties, but I have no clue. The first round of this draft is filled with so many "maybe" players that anybody could go anywhere. If you think about it logically, we know absolutely nothing except that Merriman feels good and looks good.
This is clearly the doldrums of the season for us Chargers fans. So I'm going to try my best to make it exciting with gadgets, jokes, house cleaning and PREDICTIONS! I'm going to be working in bullet points so I don't get lost.
- I will attempt to look into the future and answer all of the questions above accurately, taking into account all of the possible changes to each situation that could occur even before the beginning of the season. Kindof, No (due to injuries), A rookie, Nobody (but Cason will get a chance in camp), No (we'll grab someone after camp cuts), No (we'll draft somebody), Great, Good (but not great). Got it? Now when I'm wrong about every single one of those, I will delete this post so nobody has record of it.
- The mock drafting around here was confusing and more important was seemingly done during the stone age considering the lack of technology. Not only will it be improved before next offseason, I want to get definitive mock drafts from everyone (writers and frequent commentors) a day or two before the draft. I think the best, most organized way of doing this would be to use the ESPN NFL Draft Machine and then taking a screenshot of it afterwards. See the image at the bottom of this post for an example. The person closest to the real draft wins a mystery prize (ooohh, mystery prize). If two people tie they will fight to the death for the mystery prize, so get creative with your mock drafts!
- This one should've lead off, but I was uncertain whether or not to share it. Considering our readers are just as big a part of this blog as the writers (bigger actually, we'd be so lonely without you), I figure you're entitled to hear it. Our fearless leader, DaBolts, will soon be an ordinary fearless person and another leader will be named. However, if we all leave him comments filled with love an admiration for every one of his posts we just might be able to convince him to give up his real-world responsibilities and dedicate his life to the Chargers blogosphere! Or not. Still, let the man know you appreciate this wonderful little community that he created and all the hard work he puts into it.
-
I was in Las Vegas this past week. Don't congratulate me. I wound up down $200 after going up $140 on my first night, for those who care. Anyways, I've never really had any desire to go to Vegas and left there feeling completely and totally unimpressed. However, I did get to watch the Uconn/MSU game at a sportsbook with 10 insane Uconn fans (who fought with 10 insane MSU fans on the other side of the room) and that was fun. While I was there I thought I'd take a look at the Chargers odds of winning the Super Bowl. Any guesses? 15/1. Better than the Titans, worse than the Steelers and tied with the Eagles. That's about right. Also worse than the Giants, Patriots and....wait, THE COLTS? I saw that and turned to the nearest random stranger I could find and had the following exchange:
Me: "Didn't the Chargers beat the Colts in the playoffs in each of the past 2 years?"
Him: "I don't know, did they?"
Me: "You bet your ass they did. And haven't the Chargers beaten the Colts 3 out of the last 4 times they've played, with their one loss being by 3 points?
Him: "I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say tha...."
Me: "Yes they did! And didn't the Colts just lose their number 2 receiver, the one whose own decline has matched the decline of the Colts offense, and THEIR HEAD COACH that they've credited with so much of their success?"
Him: *walks away*
Me: "How does this make any sense?!?!?!"
So there you go. I've witnessed the Peyton Manning bias. We've beaten them with our backup QB and we've beaten them with our backup HB, but apparently if you put a healthy Chargers team versus a healthy Colts team we'd come out losers according to Vegas. Yeah right.
Right now I'd trade our first rounder for a second rounder and another third rounder in a heartbeat. Then I'd package the two 3rd rounders that we could trade for another spot in the 2nd round. Four picks in the first 3 rounds sounds better than three this year.It also seems like most the holes we need to fill (HB, Safety, ILB, DT/DE) would be easier to fill in the second round so we didn't have to reach. I think Maualuga is the only ILB worth a first round pick (besides Curry), I think Tyson Jackson, Peria Jerry, Ron Brace and Evander Hood should all be low 1st round and high 2nd round picks instead of in the middle of the 1st. I think Beanie Wells might be worthy of the 16, but that hole is filled just as easily (and cheaper) with our 3rd round pick.- Finally, I'm starting to get sick of the draft. I think about it when I'm falling asleep and when I'm waking up. I think about it in the shower and during work. I want these 17 days to go by quickly so that I can look at a nearly-complete picture of the week 1 starting 22 and start dreaming about beating the Colts in the playoffs again. Who's with me?
- As promised, a copy of a sample round 1 draft done with the ESPN NFL Draft Machine (click it to see it larger):
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Comments
I think the broncos
spend at least one of their 1st round picks on a long snapper, if any are still available.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Apr 8, 2009 11:51 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Sorry Shaynes.
They’re set for several years to come at long snapper.
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
by Trinidad Jack on Apr 14, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
old indian football curse: may you have an interesting offseason
Not sure who from BFTB put this curse on the Broncos, but I’m ever suspicious :)
Sorry to hear about DaBolts. I’ve thoroughly appreciated his insight and even-handedness, all the way back to when he was blogging about the Chargers on MHR. Hopefully he’ll continue to stop by for a cameo every now and then. Regardless, all the best to him and his.
Thanks CB
I’ll still be popping in now and again.
"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman
by Brian (DaBolts) on Apr 8, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't understand your trade scenario.
We take our first rounder and trade it for a 2nd and a 3rd, then trade the two 3rd rounders for another 2nd? And that somehow leaves us with four picks in the first three rounds? By my reckoning, that would leave us with only two 2nd rounders. Right now we have only two first-day picks: the 1st rounder and the 3rd rounder. If we traded our first for a 2nd and a 3rd, and then both 3rds for a 2nd, all we’d have left is two 2nds. Are two 2nds better than a 1st and a 3rd?
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 8, 2009 1:50 PM PDT reply actions
We have two compensatory 3rd round picks that cannot be traded. And therefore, right now we have 4 first day picks, one 1st and three 3rd. Which actually means my math above is wrong anyways. It’s 4 either way, but I think we can turn the one and the three into two 2nd rounders and get better value.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
No
we have two compensatory 4th round picks that cannot be traded.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
Damn!
Wishful thinking I suppose.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
I hate to bring up the draft value chart again
But the first pick in the 2nd round (580) plus the 1st pick in the 3rd round (265) is not equal to the 16th pick in the first round (1000).
If you really want two 2nd round picks, you’d want to do something like trade the #16 (1000) for the Colts #27 (680) and #61 (292). Then trade the #27 (680) for the Texans #46 (440) and #77 (205). Then you’d have the #46, #61 and still keep the 3rd round pick #78 and pick up the #77.
Or you could get the Patriots 3 2nd round picks, 34, 47, 58 (1160 total) by trading the #16 (1000) and #78 (200). Maybe you could even pry their #124 (48) pick away.
In any case, it seems like you’re running a charity with your trade scenario.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
Does AJ use the draft value chart?
Weddle trade:
Chargers got #37 (530)
Bears got #62 (284), #93 (128), #167 (24.6), and #90 (140) for a total of 576.6
italics was a next year pick, I’m not sure how that affects its value
Hester trade
Chargers got #69 (245)
Pats got #160 (27.4) and #47 (430) for a total of 457.4
italics was a next year pick
Rivers trade
Chargers got #4 (1800), #65 (265), #12 (1200), #144 (34), for a total of 3299
Giants got #1 (3000)
italics was a next year pick
Although I’m not sure how the future picks are valued, it seems like AJ has a tendency to overpay. Perhaps you can shed some light on future picks’ values, since most trades seem to involve future picks
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Apr 8, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
According to this chart,
The Weddle trade wasn’t that bad, there was only about a 40-pt difference, the value of about a 5th round pick. And he made out rather well on the Rivers-Manning trade.
Again, just based on draft value charts, the real problem is in the Hester trade, where the pick we got was only worth about half as much as what we gave up. Of course, that’s all moot until we see the results of the picks. Hester could develop into a nice player and whoever the Pats pick with our 2nd rounder could end up being a bust. They haven’t drafted real well lately.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 8, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Usually
Draft picks for future years are valued at less than their number for the current year. I don’t have a good explanation for why, but that is typically the case (such as when a team trades up from the top of the second round to the mid to late first round and gives up a next year first rounder).
I think there were some justifications for A.J. overpaying those times, mainly because he felt like he had more picks than the team had roster openings, but it doesn’t make it a best practice going forward nor does it make it an overarching philosophy to the trades. Also, all three of these trades consisted of A.J. targeting a specific player (Rivers, Weddle, Hester), whereas the scenarios mentioned for the 2009 draft would be trading down for picks where no specific player is guaranteed.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
Thanks DaBolts!
Sorry to hear you’re going, but I imagine the workload could be exceedingly overwhelming. Great job getting this puppy off the ground!
Damn
DaBolts is going all Jay Cutler on us. Don’t let us catch you writing for a vikings site.
Thanks for being the George Washington of this blog. You’re awsome!
Great post obviousman
The NFL off-season is never easy. Good thing the baseball season just started.
LT Fan 4 Life

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