A Few Draft What Ifs...

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Apr 24, 2009 10:00 AM PDT in NFL Draft

Let me run a few "what if" scenarios by you. These are all a little unlikely (in fact that is my criteria for listing them), but I think at least one of them will happen on draft day. They all involve someone slipping to us at 16.

One of the top 4 OTs slips to us at 16:

Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Michael Oher. Monroe and J Smith are can't miss and will be off the board by 5. A Smith and Oher both have some red flags and may slip. Some mocks have them all gone by 9, others have Oher on the board past us.

Malcom Jenkins slips to us at 16:

The top rated CB in the draft. Has been rumored to be a better safety prospect than CB. About half the mocks have him going before us ( many mocks have us taking him)

BJ Raji slips to us at 16:

Best DT on the board and would be a great heir apparent to Jamal. I've seen a few mocks with him as low as 12 or so, none have him reaching us, so this is a bit of a stretch.

One of the top 3 WRs slips to us at 16:

Crabtree, Heyward-Bey, and Maclin are the three "can't miss" WR prospects in this draft. I don't believe I have seen a mock that has them falling to us, but you never know.

Everette Brown slips to us a 16:

Everette Brown, DE FSU will probably play OLB in a 3-4 and is the only top guy at that position who would be considered to have slipped if he made it to us (Curry also might be in this group, but he is more of a 4-3 guy, and will be gone early)

While some of these are less likely than others, I think that at least one of them will actually happen. If one of them were to happen, which one would you want it to be?

I'm hoping for BJ Raji. I think that position is a difficult one to find someone who is dominant at, especially in later rounds. I also think a dominant NT can affect the game more than a dominant OT or CB. I think a dominant NT is a rival of the Merriman\Ware type OLB or a franchise QB in ability to affect the game and are probably harder to find.

Poll

Of these unlikely scenarios, which one do you hope happens?

One of the top 4 OL falls to us

39 votes

Malcom Jenkins falls to us

26 votes

BJ Raji falls to us

64 votes

One of the top three WRs falls to us

18 votes

Everette Brown falls to us

13 votes

160 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 18 comments | 2 recs |

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Comments

I would jup up and do the happy dance if Raji fell to the Chargers

but I really dont see any scenario of him getting past Jacksonville, Green Bay, or Denver.

I think Heyward-Bey, Malcom Jenkins and Michael Oher will all be there at #16.

by Grey Suit on Apr 24, 2009 10:14 AM PDT reply actions

you might be right

this is all such a crapshoot once you get past the top 5-10 or so.

I bet there is an early run on tackles, and I also think 3-4 style front 7 players will go earlier than most people project, which will suck for us.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Apr 24, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Best Idea

This post is exactly what I’m looking for a day or two prior to the draft. In a best case, intelligent drafting sense, the priority should be talent followed by need. A nod should be given to the relative value of a position, and the long term ramifications both good and bad for picking player A, as opposed to player B. So a running back shouldn’t generally be a 1st rounder. A lineman should be. As far as I can tell, talent wise I want them like this,

Raji, Smith, Oher, Brown, Jenkins

gully

by DanRed on Apr 24, 2009 10:32 AM PDT reply actions

Well said

The only switch I’d make in your rankings is Jenkins over Brown.

by Brendan Scolari on Apr 25, 2009 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions

All good ideas

Out of that group, the only people I see sitting there for us are Jenkins and Maclin.

Speaking of OTs, has AJ ever drafted an offensive lineman in the first round? I think he’s of the mindset that you can find good talent in that later rounds to play the line, that it’s more about size, speed and coaching. I could be wrong though.

Right now I’m focusing in on Jenkins, Maualuga, Jackson and (MAYBE) Moreno as reasonable picks that I’d be at least somewhat happy with.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Apr 24, 2009 10:37 AM PDT reply actions

No but to be fair he has only had 7 first round picks

three of which have been CB’s.

by Grey Suit on Apr 24, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions

i do believe

McNeil was a high second… so that’s close.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Apr 24, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions

Offensive Linemen drafted by AJ (and round)

Brandon Gorin (7th)
Kris Dielman (UDFA)
Toniu Fonoti (2nd)
Courtney Van Buren (3rd)
Shane Olivea (7th)
Dave Ball (5th)
Nick Hardwick (3rd)
Scott Mruczkowski (7th)
Wes Sims (6th)
Wesley Britt (5th)
Jeromey Clary (6th)
Marcus McNeil (2nd)
Corey Clark (7th)

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Apr 24, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Wasn't Dave Ball a DE?

by Grey Suit on Apr 24, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions

You're right

Got him confused with Jason Ball, our center before Hardwick.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Apr 24, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions

Don't want to sound like a jerk

But for the sake of accuracy, McNeil was the 50th choice in that draft, which is closer to the bottom of the 2nd round than the top.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Apr 24, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions

You're right

but I would’ve bet my left arm that he was an early second rounder. Weird.

by 'Eaters on Apr 24, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions

for some reason I thought we had an earlier pick in the second round. stupid brain.

Fonoti and Gorin were Butler picks (although AJ was his right hand man).

Too bad Fonoti threw his career away. Dude was a big ’ole roadgrader at guard.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Apr 24, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

We Need Everette Brown....

….Like my girlfriend’s Corolla needs mud swampers.

by BleedsBlueNgold on Apr 24, 2009 11:29 AM PDT reply actions

Have we considered trading up for Raji

He sounds like the heir apparent to Jamal. I really think Oher will be there—the question is whether AJ wants him. I wouldn’t mind Clay Matthews or Rey but not Cushing. I wouldn’t mind Malcolm Jenkins. I don’t think receivers are worth 1st picks in general (Crabtree, Fitz) exceptions – they take like 3 years to develop and are crapshoots more often than not. I think having Beanie Wells would be kind of fun but a bit of a gamble.

Draft Balls Be Kind, The Kings Need Blake! The Padres need Strausberg and the Chargers need Mauluaga!

by bringbackbuddytrees on Apr 24, 2009 2:17 PM PDT reply actions

the more i think about it

the more I think Raji is going top 5 or so. The cost to get him is too high unless he falls into the 12-15 range. Even then, I suspect AJs isn’t going to do a lot of trading up this year… too many holes to fill.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Apr 24, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Just peeked at Kiper and McShay's latest mocks

They both have us picking the same guy. And it’s not someone who either have projected to us in the past. Neither guy is necessarily THE guy when it comes to mocks, but with them agreeing with each other (which they don’t seem to do often) this close to the draft it definitely raises an eyebrow.

They both have Michael Oher as our pick (Kiper - McShay). In both, we pass on Maualuga to do so. I’ve inclined to think there may be something to this. Some kind of insider information that they are getting. I know Chris Berman can name our pick before it happens (something about a taxi cab driver), so there could be a leak to them.

And my two cents on this poll here. Raji will never, ever, ever fall to us. There’s not a scenario out there I’m willing to buy where that happens. The stock on Everette Brown is way down, there probably only a 5% chance he even goes in the top 15. In the two mocks I just mentioned, one has him at 31 and the other in the 2nd round. I’d put my money on Heyward-Bey being there at 16 since he’s not going to be in every team’s top 3 (McShay and Kiper both have him as the 4th WR chose although the non-Crabtree/Maclin pick differs between Britt and Harvin), I wouldn’t put my money on the Chargers picking him or any WR. I’ll put Jenkins at 50/50 being there.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Apr 24, 2009 3:09 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs