Will the Chargers Trade Down in the First Round of This Years Draft?

There has been a lot of talk about the Chargers trading down in this years draft to get back into the second round.  So lets take look at some of the potential trading partners that Chargers may have.  Using the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart we can see that the Chargers draft picks have the following values:

 

Chargers Draft Picks and Values

Round

Pick (Round)

Pick (Overall)

Value

1

16

16

1000

2

N/A

N/A

N/A

3

14

78

200

4

13

113

76

5

12

148

36

6

16

189

21

7

15

224

8.6

 

As you can see in the table, the 16th overall pick in the draft gives the Chargers 1,000 points to play with.  Looking at some of the other teams pick values the following trade scenarios look to be plausible:

Potential Trade Partners

 

Team

Pick 1

Pick 2

Pick 3

Total Value

Rd

Pick

Value

Rd

Pick

Value

Rd

Pick

Value

Falcons

1

24

740

2

23

350

N/A

0

0

1090

Dolphins

1

25

720

2

24

340

N/A

0

0

1060

Ravens

1

26

700

2

25

330

N/A

0

0

1030

Colts

1

27

680

2

29

292

5

29

28.6

1000.6

Eagles

1

28

660

2

21

370

N/A

0

0

1030

Giants

1

29

640

2

28

300

4

29

47

987

Lions

2

1

580

3

1

265

3

18

180

1025

Rams

2

3

550

3

2

260

4

3

88

898

Browns

2

4

540

2

18

400

4

4

100

1040

 

As we all know it takes two to tango and even though the trade values add up nicely on paper it does not mean that these teams will accept the Chargers invitation to dance.   So let’s look at each of these teams and see if it would make since from them to want to trade up.

Falcons – The Falcons biggest need is DT but unfortunately for them this draft class lacks first round talent at that position.  The only way I could invasion the Falcons wanting to move up to #16 would be if BJ Raji was still on the board, but if that happened I don’t think AJ would pick up the phone because he would be way to busy writing BJ’s name on his draft card.

Dolphins – I would be shocked if Bill Parcells traded up in the draft, the Dolphins have needs at LB and a WR and may be tempted to give the Chargers a call if Maclin was still on the board but I just don’t see Parcells doing it.

Ravens – The Ravens need help at WR and if Maclin is on the board I could see them possibly trying to move up but with 5 WRs projected to go in the first round of this years draft I don’t think the Ravens will pay the extra picks to move up and get him.  The only other option  I see is if the Ravens fall in love with one of the LBs from USC and feel like they need to move up to secure him.

Colts – Like Parcells the Colts are really not known for wanting to move up in the draft, also the Colts main need is DT and as we discussed before there is really no key DTs other than Raji that would spark a teams interest enough to pay the extra draft picks to move up.

Eagles – The Eagles are an interesting team because they have two first round picks and lots of holes they need to fill.  If one of the big four OT slips out of the first 15 picks it would not surprise me to see the Eagles move up and try and get them.  Also if somehow Sanchez or Stafford is still available at #16 I would imagine that it would be incredibly tempting for the Eagles to try and move up and snag the ere apparent to Donavan McNabb.  I could also see the Eagles try and move up to get either Moreno or Wells if they fell in love with one of them and didn’t want to risk losing them to the Jets or Bucks.

Giants – The Giants biggest need is WR so I could actually see the Giants trading their 2nd round pick for Chris Chambers but I don’t see them moving up all the way to #16 to draft a receiver.

Lions – Lions have a ton of picks in this draft from the Roy Williams trade but they also have a ton of holes from having Matt Millen as there GM for a decade.  If the lions decide to go with Jason Smith with the first overall pick I could see them possibly trading up to #16 to draft Josh Freeman before the Bucks can get him at #17 but that would give them 3 first round picks and probably not enough cap space to sign them.

Rams – The Rams may actually be the best trade partner that the Chargers have.  The Rams first need is an OT which they will draft with the second overall pick in the draft but they also probably need to draft a QB to replace Bulger within the next few years which could be a guy like Josh Freeman.  In return for the #16 pick in the draft the Chargers would get three picks in the top 103 picks of the draft as well as probably the rams third round pick in 2010. 

Browns – The Browns are a very interesting trade partner, they have two second round picks and may acquire a third if they trade Edwards.  However Mangini does come the Bill Belichick school of drafting so it is not very likely he will want to move up on the draft.  But if the Browns feel like they have a big enough need at RB, WR or TE I could see them trading two of their second rounders to get back into the first round.

In the end I think the Chargers are most likely to strike a deal with the Rams but it seems like this is a rather weak draft class so convincing any team to move up may be difficult.

 

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