Running Backs by the Numbers

by Brian (DaBolts) on Mar 30, 2009 8:33 AM PDT Comment 25 comments

Football Outsiders has an interesting way to predict running back success. It turns out if a player can run quickly; very often they succeed in the NFL. Actually it's a little more complicated than that; they also factor it for the players size. So a back that can run a 4.5, but is 270 could well rank better than a back that runs a 4.4 but is 180. Essentially think of it as a force equation where the force a running back can bring is his mass (weight) times his acceleration.

They quantify in such a way that an average running back is about 98 on this scale, their exact scale is (Weight*200)/(40 yard dash time^4). [HT to Wonko who cited this earlier] The other factor that correlates to success is the leap number. Though running backs are rarely leaping as high as they can it serves as sort of benchmark of overall fitness. I have included the jump as it combines both running and leaping. So how did LT rate on this spectrum? He came in at 120, with a 4.38 40 and 221 pounds; he also had the 41 inch vertical jump.

Name	Weight	40 time	40 factor	Leap	Jump
Brown, Andre	224	4.49	110.2282	37
Peerman, Cedric	216	4.45	110.165	40
Johnson, Ian	212	4.46	107.1584
Williams, Javarris	223	4.52	106.8516	33.5	10'8"
Wells, Chris	235	4.59	105.8881	33.5	10'8"
Sheets, Kory	208	4.47	104.1989	37	10'1"
Brown, Donald	210	4.51	101.518	41.5	10'5"
Jennings, Rashad	231	4.64	99.67128		10'0"
Greene, Shonn	227	4.63	98.7943	37	10'1"
Goodson, Mike	208	4.54	97.91967	39.5	9'10"
Ogbonnaya, Chris	220	4.61	97.42019	35
Lucky, Marlon	216	4.59	97.32693
Moreno, Knowshon	217	4.6	96.93004	35.5
Davis, James	218	4.61	96.53455
Coffee, Glen	209	4.58	94.99798	36	10'1"
Johnson, Jeremiah	209	4.61	92.54918
Scott, Bernard	200	4.56	92.51254	36	10'5"
Kimble, Anthony	216	4.66	91.60941	36	10'2"
Ringer, Javon	205	4.6	91.56986
Ore, Branden	214	4.67	89.98627	36
Sutton, Tyrell	211	4.66	89.48882	33
Johnson, Gartrell	219	4.71	89.0001
Bell, Kahlil	212	4.68	88.38579

On this metric, this is an inauspicious group this year; generally the first rounders go out at 111. That's right, nobody in this cohort even hits 111, and Knowshon Moreno who ran 4.6 scarcely projects as even an ordinary back. Beanie Wells at least comes out at 105; and if you believe his Ohio State 40; much better. Of course he also has a reputation of being a poor receiver; that doesn't work so well in Norv Turner's offense that likes everyone to be capable of being a check down receiver.

There are some hidden gems here; Andre Brown and Cedric Peerman. Why aren't they on many folks radar? Both have struggled with injuries; Brown with a broken leg and Peerman with a partial tear of a foot ligament. They didn't rack up the big numbers that make a bust excusable; but both demonstrate skill and speed. Apparently Peerman also has somewhat small hands which some correlate with fumbles; but that was not an issue in his college career.

What about Donald Brown? He comes in at slightly above average 101.5, but he does he have a 41 inch leap to go with it. To me this says that there isn't a first round back worth taking with the 16th pick. Either of the Brown's or Peerman would be worth fishing for if they are available with later picks. The other interesting back is Ian Johnson, projected as low as the 6th round; he comes in at a good 107 based on his official combine; but wowed the crowd with an unofficial 4.34 time. That equates to a monstrous 119 score; Johnson could be a real steal if we want to take a chance with one of our fourth rounder comp picks.

2 recs | Comment 25 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I never trust football metrics like this.

Football is such a mental game that you can only get so far off of pure skill. But I do agree that none of the RB’sn this years class warrant the #16 pick.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 30, 2009 8:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be interested to see

Numbers like this for 2008 and 2007. ’07 was the last year they did the combine in the old Colts stadium (with turf) and ’08 was the first year they did it in Lucas Oil Stadium (FieldTurf). I think this method of predicting if these backs are any good is a little dated for that reason alone. Turf makes everyone faster.

This does backup something I’ve been feeling for the last week or so though, that Beanie Wells is a better pick than Moreno. More upside anyways. Right now if I’m rating RBs I’d like the Chargers to get, with the 16th pick or later, it would go like this:

Wells
D. Brown
Greene
Moreno
I. Johnson
Peerman

Peerman is low on my list just because I have not seen that much of him, maybe two games during his career and nothing since. Andre Brown isn’t on my list because, as I’ve stated before, he seems to have a tendency to “dance” at the line and wait for the hole to open up rather than trusting his line and hitting the hole hard (while at near full speed). I believe this is why his numbers in college don’t match his production at the combine.

Ian Johnson would be a good value in the 4th, but I don’t know that he has potential to eventually take over the starters spot because he has not shown me any ability to make a tackler miss (he seems to only be able to run straight, but he does so with good speed and power).

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Mar 30, 2009 8:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

also for last year's class

it would be interesting to see if it could predict some of the successes we saw (Forte, C Johnson, Slaton, etc.)

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 30, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forte, 222, 4.51, speed factor of 107
Slaton, 203, 4.45, speed factor of 104
Johnson, 200, 4.24, speed factor of 124

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Mar 30, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

That kindof shuts down my argument.

Some other notable “top performers”:

Jamaal Charles, 200, 4.38
Felix Jones, 207, 4.47
McFadden, 211, 4.33
Mendenhall, 225, 4.45
Jalen Parmele (who?), 224, 4.47
Ray Rice, 199, 4.44
Chad Simpson (who?), 216, 4.42
Kevin Smith, 217, 4.43
Jonathan Stewart, 235, 4.48
Marcus Thomas (ouch), 213, 4.6

Yeah nevermind, I think the formula works. However, stats I found have Forte, Slaton and Johnson all a few pounds lighter than you have there.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Mar 30, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I grabbed my weights

From Wiki; it’s probably their current playing weight. Slaton drops to a 100.5; he comes in the lowest after using their combine weight.

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Mar 30, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are so distrusting

Every time you see a statistic, you assume that the creator doesn’t do any effort to make sure that it means something more than numbers on paper.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Mar 30, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant to hit cancel

I realized that was a really dumb thing to say since I do the same thing. I’m just biased on this one because I’d read about it before the 2008 draft (and how it correlated with running back successes and busts) and knew that it ended up working pretty well for the 2008 RB results. So for anyone to not think that it sheds some light on predicting RB success would be a little foolish, however, not everyone reads the same stuff I do. So I’ll go put the dunce cap on for a bit for hitting okay instead of cancel.

by Wonko on Mar 30, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

no sweat

I assumed you said it with smile :-)

and here are all the RBs from 2007 and 2008 who ran at the combine and got over 100 in the “40 factor”. Its still a bit early to judge these guys as to whether they will be successfull NFL RBs. And the formula seems to hit more than it misses.

2008 – Chris Johnson - 121.9
2007 – Chris Henry – 121.7
2008 – Darren McFadden – 120.0
2008 – Jonathan Stewart - 116.7
2007 – Adrian Peterson - 115.8
2008 – Rashard Mendenhall – 114.8
2007 – DeShawn Wynn – 113.2
2008 – Chad Simpson – 113.2
2008 – Kevin Smith – 112.7
2008 – Jalen Parmele – 112.2
2007 – Brian Leonard – 111.2
2008 – Matt Forte - 109.7
2007 – Marshawn Lynch - 109.7
2008 – Jamaal Charles – 108.7
2007 – Cory Anderson – 106.6
2007 – Antonio Pittman – 104.1
2007 – Kolby Smith – 103.9
2008 – Felix Jones – 103.7
2008 – Cory Boyd – 103.0
2008 – Xavier Omon – 102.7
2008 – Ray Rice – 102.4
2008 – Steve Slaton - 101.4
2008 – Tashard Choice – 101.2
2007 – Kenny Irons – 101.0
2007 – Alonzo Coleman – 100.9

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 30, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Out of 25

I see 12 people that I’d call busts (Henry, Wynn, Simpson, Parmele, Leonard, Anderson, Pittman, Smith, Boyd, Omon, Irons, Coleman), and I left off Mendenhall because we have no idea what kind of player he is after only playing in 4 games. So the success rate seems to be somewhere around 50%.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Mar 30, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

plus

of your busts, a good portion of them ended up being UDFAs or low draft picks, so they were already knocked down for some other reason. I wonder if they could factor a 3 cone drill or shuttle numbers in here to account for some “shifty-ness”.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 30, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

another way to look at it

Here are all last year’s 1000 yard rushers and their 40 factor coming out of college:

seems like it might be difficult to be successful in the NFL without a 40 factor above 105 or so.

most data sourced from nfldraftscout.com which seems to have different data than elsewhere…

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 30, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

Right

It’s not that you’re getting a successful back if you use 40 factor (this used to be called Speed Score, I wonder why the name changed). It’s that you’re asking for trouble if you draft someone who doesn’t have a good 40 factor.

I’m willing to chalk up Gore’s performance to his knee recovery. So Slaton is the only true sub-105 on that list.

by Wonko on Mar 30, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Momentum!

It is great to see that the football coaches have finally grasped the simple Physics concept of momentum… Force = (Mass) x (Velocity).

(while there is an acceleration component) , a 40 time is really more an indication of velocity.

by Trendsearcher on Mar 30, 2009 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

f=ma

actually

I want to thank the good Lord for making me a Philip Rivers fan.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Mar 30, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

P=mv

word…

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 30, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Mar 30, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Actually

P is power (P = Fd/t)
p is momentum (p = mv)

by Wonko on Mar 30, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think this metric is fundamentally flawed. What about lateral quickness? What about quick feet? Things like the 3 cone drill need to be taken into account. Moreno might not have break a way speed, but he has quickness to make up for it. Also, some players are just as fast with pads on in game situations, some are not.

Also, as with any physical stat, football is 90% mental, and thats what really matters anyways.

by Clyde Simmons on Mar 31, 2009 5:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

also

Moreno can jump over people… Although I think he’ll only try that once in the NFL :-)

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 31, 2009 5:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could Be

But the list of 1,000 yarders impresses me that it is a necessary but not sufficient condition. According to the FO guys while the shuttle does correlate with success, the 3 cone does not. Moreno did well in the three cone, but not in the shuttle so he has a number of performance flags on him.

In the three-cone drill, Moreno’s 6.84 seconds were second to Abilene Christian back Bernard Scott. Scott also topped the leaderboard in the 20-yard shuttle with a time of 4.08 seconds, while Moreno was eighth at 4.27 seconds. (In the 60-yard shuttle, which we don’t track data for, Moreno finished fourth out of the six who attempted it.) Over the past ten years, the average back who’s been drafted has been 5’10" and weighed 216 pounds — almost a mirror image of Moreno’s 5’11", 217-pound frame. Those same backs have averaged a 20-yard shuttle time of 4.20 seconds and a three-cone drill time of 7.07 seconds. While Moreno’s three-cone drill score was better than average (and would rate as the fourth-best time for drafted backs), success in the three-cone drill actually bears a slightly inverse correlation to NFL success, while the shuttle, which Moreno was below-average in, has a much more positive relationship.

Some positions are more mental, but I’m having trouble buying running back as one of them. You just don’t see many running backs with careers that extend past age 30, no matter how mental they are. :-)

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Mar 31, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously

Those things matter. But, in an effort to try to use combine data to show RB performance those things didn’t do anything to help predict success (or predict busts).

Here’s a thought for you. Maybe the times aren’t as important as actually seeing the guys do those drills. It may not be how fast you get through, but how you move as you go through. In baseball there is always this stats vs. scouts argument and it’s painfully obviously that certain things just aren’t going to be measured by numbers, even a stopwatch. I would assume that there are going to be some things at the combine that need a scouts eye. But, that doesn’t feed the football hunger since the fans aren’t scouts. This 40 factor does feed that and it has some pretty good success.

So instead of complaining about how it isn’t the best metric, we should just embrace it as better than what came before. As they say at FO, the better is the enemy of the best.

by Wonko on Mar 31, 2009 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought it was “best is the enemy of the good.”

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Mar 31, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs