Are Tomlinson and Sproles going to share the load?

2006

“Michael [Turner] has a role and his role has expanded over the last couple of years and will continue to expand,” head coach Marty Schottenheimer said. “We've talked about certain situations where we would have both he and LT in the game at the same time. So he'll earn his letter.”

Schottenheimer, August 2006

2007

“It's another weapon [Michael Turner] for Norv to work with,” Smith said. “We've got two of the best backs in the NFL. With Norv's offensive creativity, he's got a lot of plans in his head to use those two.”

AJ Smith, May 2007

2009

[Norv] Turner doesn't believe LaDainian Tomlinson necessarily needs a caddie, but he thinks slightly expanding Darren Sproles' role will help the future Hall of Famer.

“If you talk about being around the great backs, they're at their comfort level when they get 22, 23, 25 carries,” Turner said Tuesday at the NFL owners'meetings. “(Tomlinson) had (a career-low 292) carries last season. I'd expect him to have more. I'd expect him to be in the 320s. That's what he does. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it.

“We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load.”

Norv Turner, March 24, 2009

When I read the most recent article in the UT, I thought to myself, "I've heard this song and dance before."  Every year they talk about LT sharing the load, and it never happens.  What are the odds of it actually happening this year between LT and his $6.6M cohort Sproles?  I decided to look at the stats and prove how full of it the coaches and GM are when it comes to actually reigning in LT.

I found an interesting thing

LT's carries as a percent of the total carries on offense did drop from 2005 to 2006 to 2007.  His total touches as a percentage of the offense's total touches dropped form 2006 to 2007.  He was a bigger part of the running game last year (but had fewer overall carries) while being a smaller part of the offense all together, since we seemed to have transitioned to more of a passing Rivers led offense.  The stats seem to indicate that the coaches did manage to split LTs workload up a bit.  Not dramatically, but no one really wanted that anyways.

So, what does that mean for 2009?  Will the stats look more like 2007?  Let's assume no additions to the RB mix via the draft.  I think Norv's comment that he would like to see LT at 320 carries and more out of Sproles seems unlikely.  I just don't think there are going to be that many carries to go around.  If LT gets 320 carries and Sproles increases his workload to around 100 (what the backup combos got in previous years), that gives us 420 carries between the two.  Mix in some FB carries, end arounds, QB sneaks/draws and I think we're up to where we were in LT's heyday of around 460 carries for the team and I'm not sure we're that type of offense anymore.

It would not surprise me to see LT around 290 carries again this year.  I think Sproles gets to 80 or 90.  I think LT and Sproles catch 100 balls between them.  I'd love to see them in the backfield at the same time, but that is one thing we never consistently saw with LT and Turner, even though it seemed to work every time they did it.

One thing I'm not factoring in is whether Sproles big contract influences the amount of touches he gets.  Until this year, LT was also the leader in pay grade for the RBs, even in Turner's tender year, LT was making 3 times more than him.

Of course, injuries, a Sproles trade, drafting an RB might throw a kink in my predictions, but I do believe we're looking at total team carries in the low 400s rather than the mid to high 400s of a few years ago.