Taking a Peek at the Chargers in 2010

If nothing is done about renewing the CBA and next year is the “Final League year”, the requirements for becoming an unrestricted free agent change from 4 years to 6 years. I know this means that Merriman, Jackson, and McNeil (and whitehurst and dobbins) will be restricted free agents. So if we give them the old “first and third round tender” (one year offer that other teams can match, but we get their 1st and 3rd round picks), we can essentially lock them up for one more year (or get real good draft picks in return).

At this time, it is anyone’s guess as to whether the CBA will be re-upped. I’m guessing that it will and your analysis is right on. But there is a chance it won’t, and then our 2010 off-season options increase.

However, I must voice my disagreements:

VJ and Chambers: I’m thinking backwards from you. Yes VJ is going to want number 1 WR money because he is our number 1 receiver. His off-the-field issues will keep him from getting top dollar, but he’ll still get paid well. I believe it’ll be the Charger paying him, mostly because we have no other option unless we want to completely rebuild our WRs again. After watching Chambers last year, I think he’s cooked. His body has taken too much of a pounding and he knows it. He also no longer has the footspeed to be a deep threat. He’s turned into a crafty veteran receiver (ala McCardell) and probably not someone we’re going to keep around much longer. In 2010 I expect our receiving corps to be VJ, Floyd with a rookie or Naanee as the slot receiver.

Manumaleuna: He was picked up when we were a run-heavy offense. Now that we’re more of a pass-heavy offense there’s going to be a greater demand for him by other teams (like the Ravens or Titans) than there will be by the Chargers. We’ll let him go.

Osgood: He’s going to end up back with San Diego most likely. He wants to leave to become a WR somewhere else, but outside of his time at SDSU he has never shown the talent to be a legitimate WR in the NFL. He may get more money to be a special teamer for someone like Detroit or Cincy (who are desperate to be good at one facet of the game), but he’d be dumb to leave San Diego where he has a chance to leave a Steve Tasker/Vince Papale-type legacy.

Rivers/McNeil: It’s time for Rivers to step to the plate. Merriman has always said he’s out to get the most money (then recounts the story of being homeless as a teen). Rivers has said he’d take less money to end up with a better team. I think the team has enough to max out Rivers/Merriman/McNeil, but I might be wrong. Even if they do, Rivers may sign for less money to ensure a better team around him and McNeil might sign for less (even after a good year) because he now has a history of injuries and inconsistency.

My brain’s spinning enough about this year

You are right, he is extremely important to the defense, and he may be the best linebacker in the league. But unless something changes (which it could), he will not be given a new, long-term deal.

The reasons are several. First, the contract he will likely demand will be truly gargantuan. Think Haynesworth territory, and then some depending on his 2009 performance. When the team is looking to re-do contracts with players like Rivers, Gates, Jackson, and McNeill, paying Merriman that much money would be crippling.

Second, the team is not convinced that he is fully committed to football. Take his Friday-commentary contract with Fox. The team wasn’t happy that he was going to be running up to LA and back every weekend before the game, especially for away games.

Third, they feel that he wouldn’t necessarily be a great long-term investment. The way he plays, 100% all out on every play, means that he is at great risk for severe and repeated injury. They don’t want to give him a 7-year $100 million contract with $40 million guaranteed and watch him blow his knee out halfway through the first year and never recover fully.

There may be other reasons we don’t know about, but those are the ones that come up most often. Agree with them or disagree, those are some of what the team is considering, and they weigh heavily against them signing him to a new long-term contract.

What the team will do, in all likelihood, is franchise him after he becomes an unrestricted free agent. They may even franchise him two years in a row. There is added incentive to do this because the franchise tag for linebackers is not that expensive, and certainly cheaper than a mega-deal. It has the added benefit of being able to re-evaluate things every year without being boxed in by contract terms. It also gives us another three years of Shawne playing in his prime before he would leave town.

This is where they’ll go with him.