Late 2nd Day RB Pick

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 18, 2009 6:27 AM PDT Comment 9 comments

So, Boise State had their Pro Day on Tuesday. And I was reminded of their RB Ian Johnson. You remember Ian, he was the one who proposed to his girlfriend after the fiesta bowl when Boise State beat Oklahoma. He was an All-American his sophomore year with 1700+ yards rushing. His numbers have decreased the last two years and this year he only had 766 yards on the ground. He was splitting time with a few other backs. He did pick up another 200+ yards in receptions.

Stats:

5'11" - 211lbs

4.46 40 yard dash (#2 at combine for RBs)

6.93 3 cone drill (#9 at combine for RBs)

26 in 225 benchpress (#5 at combine for RBs)

Projected as a 6th round guy.

So, here's my theory. I think AJ is happy with our RB situation this year with LT and Sproles. I think there is no way he spends a 1st day pick on an RB. I think he will be willing to take a flyer on a late round RB because even if both LT and Sproles are gone in 2010 (which they probably won't be), AJ knows he can pick up a 1st day RB in the 2010 draft and start him right off the bat (see Matt Forte, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton). RB is really one of the few positions where first day picks can be relied upon to start in their rookie year. So, I expect AJ not to draft an RB until late in the second day. Late in the second day, you can get a guy like Ian.

Ian has some real good workout stats (among the best for the RBs). I also like his size for an every down back (very LT-esque). He also had one solid All-American year in college. Plus, he's a 4 year guy and is married and, in theory, stable.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.

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Johnson is an interesting pick

I think if Jennings or Greene are there in the 3rd round the chargers will pick them.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 18, 2009 7:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

oops sorry forgot to add a part.

But I still think AJ drafts a RB in the 3rd. With LT’s Age and Sproles size I really think they need a big back who can pound it up the middle. I think if Jennings or Greene are there in the 3rd round the chargers will pick them.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 18, 2009 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bennet

We do still have Michael Bennet. He is not your big back, but he is a capable backup (He is roughly LT size).

I think when you draft an RB on the first day, you expect him to start. If you don’t start him, you are pretty much wasting a (relatively) cheap year. The first day RBs are only cheap on their first contract (outside of the top 15 or so), and if they are any good, they hit big money on their second contract. So you need to maximize production on the cheap contract by not drafting them until you need them. (That is my own theory and it does sound a little “penny wise, pound foolish” but I’m sticking with it)

I think a lot depends on what sort of draft day dealings go on before the 3rd round. We may have an extra compensatory third rounder from losing Turner, and we might turn our earlier picks into multiple later picks. As it stands now, we have a 1st and a 3rd on the first day and I would like to see DL and Safety addressed.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 18, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree for first and possibly 2nd round picks

But if you are picking a RB in the third I dont think anyone will expect him to be an every down back his first year.

Also if they did draft a big back I wouldn’t really consider him to be a backup but more as a short yardage back and would be worked more into a 2 back system with LT.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Mar 18, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Recent draft history

RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds that had the majority of carries their rookie year vs total number of RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds

2008: 3/9 (Johnson, Forte and Slaton)
2007: 2/9 (Peterson, Lynch)
2006: 1/8 (Addai)
2005: 2/8 (Brown,Williams)
2004: 2/6 (Jones, Jones)
2003: 0/4
2002: 2/8 (Green, Portis)
2001: 4/9 (Tomlinson,Bennett,Thomas,Henry)
2000: 2/9 (Dayne,Lewis)

So if their is an expectation that RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds are expected to get the bulk of the carries in their first year. It is an unrealistic one. As I perused through drafted It also seems pretty common to use a first 3 rounds pick to get a supplemental back, especially when you have an aging back. The Rams spent 3 picks in this time frame trying to supplement Marshall Faulk (Candidate,Gordon,Jackson), the Titans spent a bunch trying to supplement/replace their current back (Brown, White, Henry, Johnson). The Panthers spent 4 picks all on guys that weren’t expected to start in their year including 2 1st round picks (Foster,Shelton,Williams,Stewart). The Eagles spent 3 in a similar vein (Hunt,Moats,Westbrook). And their are a number of teams that have only spent picks on supplement backs over that time period (Chiefs: Johnson, Charles; Jets: Jordan; Falcons: Duckett, Norwood; Bengals: Irons, Perry; Packers: Jackson; Jaguars: Jones-Drew, Jones; Saints: Bush, McAllister; Raiders: McFadden; Steelers: Mendenhall; 49ers: Gore, Barlow; Seahawks: Morris, Alexander; Redskins: Betts).

I think the Chargers would be pretty normal if they spent a pick in the top 3 rounds (“first day”) on a RB that was not supposed to carry the bulk of the load in their rookie year.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Mar 18, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting

I’d hate to think one of my pet theories might be wrong…

I wonder how the success rate would change if you only looked at teams that really needed a RB when drafting one in the first three rounds. We’d have to qualify what makes a team in need of an RB. Perhaps being in the bottom half (or third) of the league in rushing without extenuating circumstances (injuries, etc.)? maybe I’ll think that through if I can find some time tonight.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Mar 18, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs